Chase Mobley — OGILVIE

Chase Mobley P Hill City Howlers

Age 20 RHP 6'5" / 205 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 26 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 149141vR 133

ERA6.10

FIP6.10

K%22.4%

BB%22.7%

K-BB%-0.3%

ROS IP27

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4050

CMD2030

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	9	20	108	29	24	2	90%	2.0	19.5%	25.9%	-6.3%	2.3%	9.45	6.00	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	9	20	108	29	24	2	90%	2.0	19.5%	25.9%	-6.3%	2.3%	9.45	6.00	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	9	20	108	29	24	2	90%	2.0	26.9%	22.2%	4.6%	1.9%	9.45	5.10	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Hill City Howlers	23	9	32	192	33	66	2	39%	1.4	12.7%	40.6%	-27.8%	1.4%	14.06	7.91	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Hill City Howlers	23	9	32	192	33	66	2	39%	1.4	12.7%	40.6%	-27.8%	1.4%	14.06	7.91	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	A RAW	CLE	23	9	32	192	33	66	2	39%	1.4	17.2%	34.4%	-17.2%	1.0%	14.06	6.57	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	CLE	6	6	33	139	32	27	4	100%	5.5	22.9%	19.4%	3.5%	2.9%	5.73	5.61	-0.3
2027	21	MLB CTX	CLE	3	3	16	68	15	13	2	100%	5.3	22.9%	19.4%	3.5%	2.9%	5.73	5.61	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	16	68	16	13	2	100%	5.4	22.9%	19.4%	3.5%	2.9%	5.73	5.23	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		41	41	200	844	198	161	25	100%	4.8	22.9%	19.4%	3.5%	2.9%	5.73	5.23	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		33	18	52	300	46	106	5	55%	1.6	15.2%	35.3%	-20.1%	1.7%	12.29	7.22	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		127	69	200	1154	175	407	20	55%	1.6	15.2%	35.3%	-20.1%	1.7%	12.29	7.22	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chase Mobley (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.10	22.4%	22.7%	3.0%	—	5.61	22.9%	3.5%	33	-0.49	—	—	—
Chris Viall R 2016 · 5.86 FIP	20	SP-	5.86	18.9%	21.9%	2.9%	.314	5.06	21.3%	5.8%	88	-0.80	4.89	108	83
Jace Beck R 2021 · 5.13 FIP	21	SP-	5.13	21.1%	23.7%	1.5%	.347	5.32	25.7%	2.8%	50	+0.19	4.03	211	82
Luis Reyes R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	17	SP-	6.24	18.4%	20.7%	3.8%	.333	4.28	17.1%	5.1%	129	-1.96	4.02	167	81
Edinzo Marquez R 2022 · 4.97 FIP	17	SW	4.97	20.5%	18.9%	2.2%	.250	3.90	13.2%	0.4%	119	-1.07	3.26	188	80
Dariel Francia R 2023 · 5.09 FIP	17	SW	5.09	19.8%	17.4%	2.7%	.322	5.13	19.9%	-0.4%	98	+0.04	3.84	134	80
Trayson Kubo R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	21	SW	5.01	19.8%	15.6%	2.9%	.450	4.82	17.7%	1.4%	66	-0.19	4.48	107	80
Jaydenn Estanista R 2022 · 5.61 FIP	20	SW	5.61	20.2%	16.9%	3.8%	.172	5.14	20.6%	2.4%	123	-0.47	4.59	230	78
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.16	23.1%	9.1%	200	-1.68	3.51	223	78
Aneudis Mejia R 2023 · 7.12 FIP	19	SW	7.12	18.7%	29.9%	3.3%	.404	5.03	16.9%	1.3%	102	-2.09	4.36	122	78
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	76
Sandy Ozuna R 2023 · 5.42 FIP	17	SW	5.42	15.1%	17.4%	2.5%	.303	4.77	18.3%	7.9%	71	-0.65	3.03	103	75
Reynardo Cruz R 2022 · 5.44 FIP	20	SW	5.44	16.1%	18.2%	2.5%	.252	4.85	16.3%	-1.2%	66	-0.59	3.96	216	75
Will Kobos R 2018 · 5.58 FIP	20	SW	5.58	19.3%	16.0%	3.8%	.313	3.46	26.6%	11.6%	76	-2.12	2.44	139	74
Over Galue R 2021 · 5.01 FIP	20	SW	5.01	17.5%	17.0%	2.2%	.346	4.16	18.2%	3.6%	94	-0.85	4.16	122	73
Gunner Mayer R 2021 · 6.96 FIP	21	SP-	6.96	19.5%	20.8%	5.2%	.400	5.07	20.7%	4.0%	179	-1.89	4.32	288	73
Keegan Collett R 2019 · 5.05 FIP	21	SW	5.05	21.9%	24.6%	1.2%	.321	4.68	29.1%	9.0%	84	-0.37	3.93	184	72
Eliazar Dishmey R 2023 · 6.05 FIP	18	SW	6.05	17.9%	15.1%	4.6%	.302	3.83	21.9%	9.2%	268	-2.22	3.40	311	71
Jonah Tong R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	20	SP-	5.41	28.8%	27.5%	2.3%	.400	3.55	26.6%	15.0%	346	-1.86	2.54	359	71
Lisander Brito R 2022 · 5.62 FIP	20	SP-	5.62	14.1%	15.0%	3.3%	.309	3.23	18.9%	5.3%	21	-2.39	3.23	101	71
Marco Jimenez R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	22	SP-	5.27	19.6%	17.7%	2.9%	.372	3.89	18.3%	6.7%	148	-1.38	3.36	183	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	30	22.6%	20.9%	1.14	5.90
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91