Chase Mobley
P
Hill City Howlers
Age 20
RHP
6'5" / 205 lbs
A
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION30 act + 27 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137128vR 119
ERA5.24
FIP5.24
K%22.4%
BB%15.9%
K-BB%6.4%
ROS IP27
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 9 | 20 | 108 | 29 | 24 | 2 | 90% | 2.0 | 19.5% | 25.9% | -6.3% | 1.8% | 9.45 | 5.72 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 9 | 20 | 108 | 29 | 24 | 2 | 90% | 2.0 | 26.9% | 22.2% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 9.45 | 5.10 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | A | Hill City Howlers | 21 | 9 | 30 | 177 | 32 | 62 | 1 | 43% | 1.4 | 13.4% | 41.3% | -28.0% | 0.7% | 13.80 | 7.61 | -1.1 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | CLE | 26 | 0 | 27 | 113 | 25 | 18 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 15.9% | 6.4% | 3.0% | 5.24 | 5.24 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.4% | 15.9% | 6.4% | 3.0% | 5.24 | 5.24 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 20 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 57 | 290 | 57 | 80 | 4 | — | — | 19.7% | 27.6% | -7.8% | 1.5% | 9.76 | 6.49 | -1.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | CLE | 5 | 5 | 28 | 119 | 27 | 17 | 3 | 100% | 5.6 | 22.9% | 14.4% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 5.04 | 4.97 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | CLE | 3 | 3 | 14 | 59 | 14 | 9 | 2 | 100% | 4.7 | 22.9% | 14.4% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 5.04 | 4.97 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 3 | 3 | 14 | 58 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 100% | 4.6 | 22.9% | 14.4% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 5.04 | 4.59 | -0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 41 | 200 | 844 | 188 | 116 | 29 | 100% | 4.8 | 22.9% | 14.4% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 5.04 | 4.59 | +1.9 | ||
| Career | — | 31 | 18 | 50 | 285 | 45 | 101 | 3 | 58% | 1.6 | 15.7% | 35.5% | -19.8% | 1.1% | 12.06 | 6.89 | -1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 124 | 72 | 200 | 1140 | 179 | 404 | 13 | 58% | 1.6 | 15.7% | 35.5% | -19.8% | 1.1% | 12.06 | 6.89 | -3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chase Mobley (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.24 | 22.4% | 15.9% | 3.0% | — | 4.97 | 22.9% | 8.5% | 28 | -0.27 | — | — | — |
| Juan Mendez R 2028 · 4.47 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.47 | 20.5% | 14.2% | 2.4% | .271 | 5.06 | 21.9% | 6.1% | 128 | +0.59 | 3.55 | 156 | 83 |
| Trayson Kubo R 2027 · 5.01 FIP | 21 | SW | 5.01 | 19.8% | 15.6% | 2.9% | .450 | 4.86 | 17.7% | 1.4% | 66 | -0.15 | 4.40 | 107 | 82 |
| Chris Viall R 2026 · 5.86 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.86 | 18.9% | 21.9% | 2.9% | .314 | 5.11 | 21.3% | 5.8% | 88 | -0.75 | 4.97 | 108 | 78 |
| Jace Beck R 2027 · 5.17 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.17 | 21.1% | 23.7% | 1.5% | .347 | 5.32 | 25.7% | 2.8% | 50 | +0.15 | 3.54 | 177 | 78 |
| Jaydenn Estanista R 2026 · 5.73 FIP | 20 | SW | 5.73 | 20.2% | 16.9% | 4.0% | .172 | 5.08 | 20.6% | 2.4% | 123 | -0.65 | 4.51 | 205 | 77 |
| Eriq Swan R 2028 · 4.78 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.78 | 19.7% | 17.3% | 2.1% | .371 | 5.15 | 19.4% | 1.4% | 106 | +0.37 | 4.78 | 128 | 77 |
| Wilian Bormie R 2028 · 5.64 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.64 | 21.6% | 20.4% | 3.2% | .275 | 4.00 | 23.3% | 9.2% | 184 | -1.64 | 3.21 | 207 | 77 |
| Denny Larrondo R 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 19 | SW | 4.79 | 22.7% | 17.5% | 2.5% | .293 | 5.25 | 18.1% | -0.4% | 155 | +0.46 | 4.48 | 293 | 76 |
| Tahnaj Thomas R 2025 · 5.06 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.06 | 23.0% | 15.6% | 3.5% | .268 | 5.63 | 17.0% | 2.7% | 61 | +0.57 | 3.73 | 214 | 76 |
| Miguel Alfonseca R 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.24 | 18.3% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .400 | 5.54 | 14.9% | -0.9% | 92 | +1.30 | 4.24 | 123 | 76 |
| Eddy Peralta R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.53 | 22.0% | 19.8% | 1.4% | .342 | 3.82 | 20.4% | 1.1% | 72 | -0.71 | 3.65 | 103 | 76 |
| Hamlet Garcia R 2026 · 5.91 FIP | 20 | SW | 5.91 | 17.8% | 21.8% | 2.8% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.53 | 104 | 75 |
| Alfred Vega R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.58 | 20.5% | 16.0% | 2.1% | .203 | 4.65 | 13.4% | 0.6% | 81 | +0.07 | 2.07 | 234 | 75 |
| Kobe Robinson R 2027 · 4.60 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.3% | 3.0% | .296 | 3.45 | 18.8% | 4.9% | 84 | -1.15 | 2.98 | 107 | 75 |
| Johzan Oquendo R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.21 | 18.4% | 14.5% | 1.5% | .294 | 3.67 | 23.5% | 5.7% | 113 | -0.54 | 3.61 | 187 | 74 |
| Luis Rujano R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.72 | 17.1% | 16.6% | 1.8% | .309 | 4.90 | 17.0% | 0.4% | 125 | +0.18 | 4.67 | 178 | 74 |
| Carlton Perkins R 2027 · 4.34 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.34 | 18.6% | 15.7% | 1.5% | .356 | 5.67 | 15.8% | -3.4% | 53 | +1.33 | 4.34 | 111 | 74 |
| Kevin Velasco R 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 20 | SW | 5.35 | 20.5% | 21.8% | 2.2% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.18 | 116 | 73 |
| Joseph Hernandez R 2027 · 4.54 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.54 | 24.7% | 16.7% | 2.6% | .348 | 5.10 | 18.1% | 4.0% | 190 | +0.56 | 4.54 | 260 | 73 |
| Rodolfo Sanchez R 2027 · 4.72 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.72 | 23.0% | 13.6% | 3.4% | .264 | 5.07 | 19.9% | 6.3% | 104 | +0.35 | 3.59 | 255 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 27 | 22.6% | 15.1% | 1.14 | 5.14 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |