Gunner Mayer — OGILVIE

Gunner Mayer P Tacoma Rainiers

Age 26 RHP 6'6" / 190 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION34 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.32

FIP5.32

K%21.5%

BB%16.6%

K-BB%4.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 40 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL3535

CMD4545

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	19	ROK MLE	GCL Phillies West	4	2	8	36	10	3	0	50%	2.1	27.8%	8.3%	19.4%	0.0%	5.40	1.81	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	GCL Phillies West	4	2	8	36	10	3	0	50%	2.1	27.8%	8.3%	19.4%	0.0%	5.40	1.78	—
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	7	26	134	38	22	5	54%	2.0	19.5%	20.8%	-1.2%	5.2%	8.89	6.96	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	7	26	134	38	22	5	54%	2.0	28.4%	16.4%	11.9%	3.7%	8.89	5.19	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	12	54	230	73	30	10	71%	3.2	23.8%	14.8%	9.1%	6.2%	4.67	6.39	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	12	54	230	73	30	10	71%	3.2	31.7%	13.0%	18.7%	4.3%	4.67	4.47	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	23	20	77	357	79	54	4	87%	3.4	17.0%	17.4%	-0.4%	1.6%	5.47	4.76	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	23	20	77	357	79	54	4	87%	3.4	17.0%	17.4%	-0.4%	1.6%	5.47	4.76	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	23	20	77	357	79	54	4	87%	3.4	22.1%	15.1%	7.0%	1.1%	5.47	3.82	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	55	236	72	34	3	0%	1.3	23.2%	17.3%	5.9%	1.8%	4.12	4.32	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	55	236	72	34	3	0%	1.3	23.2%	17.3%	5.9%	1.8%	4.12	4.32	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	55	236	72	34	3	0%	1.3	30.5%	14.4%	16.1%	1.3%	4.12	3.05	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	39	0	52	249	66	34	6	0%	1.3	21.5%	15.0%	6.4%	2.8%	5.19	4.72	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	39	0	52	249	66	34	6	0%	1.3	21.5%	15.0%	6.4%	2.8%	5.19	4.72	—
2025	25	AA RAW	Reading Fightin Phils	39	0	52	249	66	34	6	0%	1.3	26.5%	13.7%	12.9%	2.4%	5.19	4.02	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	32	0	34	157	51	24	7	0%	1.1	27.0%	13.8%	13.2%	4.9%	5.24	5.26	—
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	32	0	34	157	51	24	7	0%	1.1	27.0%	13.8%	13.2%	4.9%	5.24	5.26	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AAA RAW	SEA	32	0	34	157	51	24	7	0%	1.1	32.5%	15.3%	17.2%	4.5%	5.24	4.74	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	SEA	6	0	6	25	5	4	1	0%	1.0	21.5%	16.6%	4.9%	2.8%	5.32	5.32	-0.1
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	SEA	—	—	40	182	56	28	8	—	—	31.0%	15.5%	15.5%	4.2%	5.25	5.27	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	SEA	66	0	69	291	63	46	8	0%	1.0	21.7%	15.9%	5.8%	2.9%	5.24	5.25	-0.5
2028	28	MLB MLE	SEA	64	0	67	282	61	44	8	0%	1.0	21.7%	15.6%	6.1%	3.0%	5.23	5.27	-0.5
2029	29	MLB MLE	SEA	61	0	64	270	58	42	9	0%	1.0	21.5%	15.5%	6.1%	3.2%	5.28	5.35	-0.6
2027	27	MLB CTX	SEA	28	0	29	122	27	19	4	0%	1.0	21.7%	15.9%	5.8%	2.9%	5.24	5.25	-0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	SEA	40	0	42	177	38	28	5	0%	1.1	21.7%	15.6%	6.1%	3.0%	5.23	5.27	-0.3
2029	29	MLB CTX	SEA	45	0	47	198	43	31	6	0%	1.0	21.5%	15.5%	6.1%	3.2%	5.28	5.35	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		113	0	118	500	108	78	15	0%	1.0	21.6%	15.6%	6.0%	3.0%	5.25	4.92	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	183	132	25	0%	1.1	21.6%	15.6%	6.0%	3.0%	5.25	4.92	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		171	41	307	1399	302	227	46	24%	1.8	21.6%	16.2%	5.4%	3.3%	5.31	5.14	-1.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		111	27	200	911	197	148	30	24%	1.8	21.6%	16.2%	5.4%	3.3%	5.31	5.14	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gunner Mayer (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.32	21.5%	16.6%	2.8%	—	5.29	21.6%	6.0%	200	-0.03	—	—	—
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	85
Ryan Jensen R 2023 · 4.64 FIP	25	SU	4.64	20.6%	17.0%	2.0%	.329	4.20	23.6%	6.8%	107	-0.44	4.00	311	85
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	83
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	83
Fernando Baez R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	24.3%	21.2%	3.0%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	129	82
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	82
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	81
Jacob Webb R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	24	SU	4.55	19.8%	15.3%	2.1%	.283	4.56	18.8%	8.2%	155	+0.01	3.33	268	81
Juan Paniagua R 2016 · 4.57 FIP	26	SU	4.57	17.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.246	4.75	12.9%	-1.0%	29	+0.18	4.57	151	81
Jake Gilbert R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	103	80
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.36	19.2%	10.6%	193	+0.12	3.92	257	80
Chase Plymell R 2023 · 4.23 FIP	25	SU	4.23	19.2%	13.0%	2.0%	.330	4.53	13.6%	5.9%	162	+0.30	3.85	291	80
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	80
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	80
Dusty Isaacs R 2018 · 5.26 FIP	26	SU	5.26	19.3%	14.1%	3.7%	.287	3.16	26.8%	20.6%	26	-2.10	3.16	253	79
Matt Lollis R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	25	SU	4.95	19.2%	14.5%	3.0%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	120	79
Alec Barger R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	25	SU	4.44	21.5%	14.4%	2.4%	.326	4.67	18.6%	7.5%	79	+0.23	3.85	242	79
Dario Beltre R 2019 · 4.24 FIP	26	SU	4.24	21.4%	17.0%	1.4%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	2.71	110	79
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	79
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	67	21.6%	15.9%	1.15	5.27
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91