Michael Lombardi

Michael Lombardi P Columbia Fireflies

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 201 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.3 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.94

FIP4.94

K%24.2%

BB%14.7%

K-BB%9.5%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4050

CTRL—45

CMD3040

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$4M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$5M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$7M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	23	18	88	386	124	52	9	78%	3.8	23.8%	15.9%	7.9%	3.0%	3.68	4.77	—
YTD	22	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	23	18	88	386	124	52	9	78%	3.8	23.8%	15.9%	7.9%	3.0%	3.68	4.77	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	KC	23	18	88	386	124	52	9	78%	3.8	32.1%	13.5%	18.7%	2.3%	3.68	3.37	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	KC	17	17	89	377	93	49	11	100%	5.3	24.7%	13.0%	11.8%	3.0%	4.74	4.66	+0.2
2028	24	MLB MLE	KC	16	16	92	387	97	46	11	100%	5.7	25.1%	11.9%	13.2%	2.9%	4.57	4.48	+0.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	KC	16	16	93	391	99	44	11	100%	5.8	25.3%	11.2%	14.0%	2.9%	4.44	4.37	+0.6
2030	26	MLB MLE	KC	15	15	93	391	99	43	11	100%	6.2	25.4%	11.1%	14.3%	2.9%	4.38	4.35	+0.6
2031	27	MLB MLE	KC	15	15	91	385	98	43	11	100%	6.1	25.4%	11.2%	14.2%	3.0%	4.38	4.38	+0.6
2032	28	MLB MLE	KC	15	15	89	374	94	42	11	100%	5.9	25.3%	11.3%	13.9%	3.1%	4.43	4.47	+0.4
2033	29	MLB MLE	KC	14	14	85	357	89	41	12	100%	6.0	25.0%	11.6%	13.4%	3.2%	4.53	4.60	+0.3
2034	30	MLB MLE	KC	13	13	80	336	90	37	11	100%	6.1	26.7%	11.1%	15.6%	3.4%	4.52	4.51	+0.4
2035	31	MLB MLE	KC	12	12	74	313	82	36	11	100%	6.2	26.3%	11.4%	14.8%	3.6%	4.63	4.71	+0.2
2036	32	MLB MLE	KC	11	11	68	289	75	34	11	100%	6.2	25.8%	11.8%	14.0%	3.9%	4.81	4.93	-0.0
2027	23	MLB CTX	KC	8	8	44	186	46	24	5	100%	5.5	24.7%	13.0%	11.8%	2.7%	4.62	4.54	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	KC	11	11	64	270	68	32	7	100%	5.8	25.1%	11.9%	13.2%	2.7%	4.45	4.36	+0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	KC	13	13	75	317	80	36	9	100%	5.8	25.3%	11.2%	14.0%	2.7%	4.32	4.25	+0.5
2030	26	MLB CTX	KC	14	14	81	342	87	38	9	100%	5.8	25.4%	11.1%	14.3%	2.7%	4.26	4.23	+0.5
2031	27	MLB CTX	KC	14	14	82	346	88	39	10	100%	5.9	25.4%	11.2%	14.2%	2.7%	4.26	4.26	+0.5
2032	28	MLB CTX	KC	14	14	82	346	87	39	10	100%	5.9	25.3%	11.3%	13.9%	2.8%	4.30	4.34	+0.4
2033	29	MLB CTX	KC	13	13	79	334	83	39	10	100%	6.1	25.0%	11.6%	13.4%	3.0%	4.40	4.47	+0.3
2034	30	MLB CTX	KC	12	12	74	312	83	35	10	100%	6.2	26.7%	11.1%	15.6%	3.2%	4.38	4.37	+0.3
2035	31	MLB CTX	KC	12	12	70	296	78	34	10	100%	5.8	26.3%	11.4%	14.8%	3.4%	4.48	4.56	+0.2
2036	32	MLB CTX	KC	11	11	65	274	71	32	10	100%	5.9	25.8%	11.8%	14.0%	3.6%	4.65	4.77	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		121	121	717	3026	772	347	89	100%	5.9	25.5%	11.5%	14.0%	3.0%	4.39	4.02	+7.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	215	97	25	100%	5.9	25.5%	11.5%	14.0%	3.0%	4.39	4.02	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		23	18	88	386	92	61	12	78%	3.8	23.8%	15.9%	7.9%	3.0%	3.68	4.77	+3.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	41	200	877	209	139	27	78%	3.8	23.8%	15.9%	7.9%	3.0%	3.68	4.77	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michael Lombardi (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.94	24.2%	14.7%	3.0%	—	4.50	25.0%	13.0%	274	-0.44	—	—	—
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	82
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	81
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	81
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	80
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	80
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	80
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	451	79
Carlos Lagrange R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	20	SP	4.34	22.1%	15.5%	2.1%	.291	3.97	25.4%	12.1%	198	-0.37	3.66	272	79
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.92	22.1%	6.6%	260	-0.02	4.21	412	79
James Proctor R 2021 · 3.99 FIP	23	SP	3.99	22.0%	15.2%	1.5%	.277	4.39	14.0%	1.5%	48	+0.40	3.99	109	78
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	77
Rayner Urbaez R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	20	SP	3.88	23.6%	11.4%	2.4%	.337	3.35	15.0%	3.0%	27	-0.53	2.55	103	76
Shane Davis R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	22	SP	4.19	20.9%	14.2%	1.9%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	4.19	129	76
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	22	SP	3.76	21.9%	9.8%	2.3%	.175	4.18	18.0%	7.5%	168	+0.42	3.51	330	76
Seranthony Domínguez R 2017 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP	4.40	22.2%	13.3%	2.7%	.302	2.76	30.3%	21.0%	83	-1.64	2.38	484	75
Brandon Young R 2021 · 4.13 FIP	22	SP	4.13	24.5%	12.3%	2.8%	.297	3.52	21.7%	14.1%	150	-0.61	3.08	476	75
Dylan Lesko R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	19	SP	4.34	26.8%	18.3%	2.2%	.333	6.78	17.8%	-7.7%	124	+2.44	4.34	152	74
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.16	23.1%	9.1%	200	-1.68	3.51	223	74
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.53	17.5%	5.2%	170	-0.49	3.97	187	74
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.4	79	25.4%	11.6%	1.22	4.54
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Dinelson Lamet ('23)	1.8	61	30.0%	10.7%	1.29	4.66