Michael Lombardi

P Columbia Fireflies

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 201 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.8 · 2032

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#645ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	AKC	23	18	88	3.68	3.38	32.1%	13.5%	—	K 23.8% · BB 15.9% · FIP 4.77
2027PROJ	23	MLBKC	—	—	0	5.15	5.15	24.3%	16.4%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBKC	5	5	29	4.82	4.73	24.8%	14.4%	0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBKC	7	7	42	4.63	4.54	24.9%	13.1%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$1M2032Arb-2$2M2033Arb-3$3M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 4.8, comp-based) · star 4% · didn't stick 83%

CompsNoah Denoyer (age 23) · James Proctor (age 23) · Angel Guzman (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.15

FIP5.15

K%24.3%

BB%16.4%

K-BB%7.9%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$11M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2031	Arb-1	$1M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2032	Arb-2	$2M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.3M
2033	Arb-3	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$7M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	23	18	88	386	124	52	9	78%	3.8	23.8%	15.9%	7.9%	3.0%	3.68	4.77	—
2026	22	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	23	18	88	386	124	52	9	78%	3.8	23.8%	15.9%	7.9%	3.0%	3.68	4.77	—
2026	22	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	23	18	88	386	124	52	9	78%	3.8	32.1%	13.5%	18.7%	2.3%	3.68	3.38	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	KC	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	24.3%	16.4%	7.9%	3.0%	5.15	5.15	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	KC	12	12	67	283	70	41	8	100%	5.6	24.8%	14.4%	10.3%	3.0%	4.94	4.85	+0.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	KC	11	11	63	265	66	35	8	100%	5.7	24.9%	13.1%	11.9%	3.0%	4.75	4.66	+0.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	KC	10	10	62	261	65	33	8	100%	6.2	25.0%	12.8%	12.2%	3.0%	4.66	4.61	+0.6
2031	27	MLB MLE	KC	10	10	60	252	63	32	8	100%	6.0	24.9%	12.7%	12.2%	3.0%	4.65	4.64	+0.5
2032	28	MLB MLE	KC	10	10	63	264	71	32	8	100%	6.3	26.8%	12.1%	14.7%	3.1%	4.53	4.46	+0.7
2033	29	MLB MLE	KC	10	10	58	245	65	30	8	100%	5.8	26.5%	12.3%	14.2%	3.3%	4.57	4.59	+0.5
2034	30	MLB MLE	KC	9	9	52	221	58	28	8	100%	5.8	26.2%	12.6%	13.6%	3.5%	4.69	4.77	+0.4
2035	31	MLB MLE	KC	8	8	46	195	50	25	7	100%	5.8	25.8%	13.0%	12.8%	3.7%	4.86	4.97	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	KC	5	5	29	122	30	18	3	100%	5.8	24.8%	14.4%	10.3%	2.8%	4.82	4.73	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	KC	7	7	42	177	44	23	5	100%	6.0	24.9%	13.1%	11.9%	2.7%	4.63	4.54	+0.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	KC	8	8	49	207	52	26	6	100%	6.1	25.0%	12.8%	12.2%	2.7%	4.54	4.49	+0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	KC	8	8	51	215	54	27	6	100%	6.4	24.9%	12.7%	12.2%	2.8%	4.53	4.52	+0.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	KC	9	9	56	236	63	29	7	100%	6.2	26.8%	12.1%	14.7%	2.9%	4.40	4.33	+0.6
2033	29	MLB CTX	KC	9	9	53	224	59	28	7	100%	5.9	26.5%	12.3%	14.2%	3.0%	4.44	4.46	+0.5
2034	30	MLB CTX	KC	8	8	48	203	53	26	6	100%	6.0	26.2%	12.6%	13.6%	3.2%	4.55	4.63	+0.3
2035	31	MLB CTX	KC	7	7	43	182	47	24	6	100%	6.1	25.8%	13.0%	12.8%	3.4%	4.71	4.82	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		62	62	370	1562	401	199	46	100%	6.0	25.7%	12.8%	12.9%	2.9%	4.55	4.16	+5.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	217	108	25	100%	5.9	25.7%	12.8%	12.9%	2.9%	4.55	4.16	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		23	18	88	386	92	61	12	78%	3.8	23.8%	15.9%	7.9%	3.0%	3.68	4.77	+3.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	41	200	877	209	139	27	78%	3.8	23.8%	15.9%	7.9%	3.0%	3.68	4.77	+1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AColumbia Fireflies · 88 IPFIP 3.37 → 4.77 (+1.40)K% 32.1% → 23.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.12%	—	×0.740	23.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.47%	—	×1.180	15.90%
HR / BF /BF	2.33%	÷1.000	×1.300	3.03%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.37 → 4.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michael Lombardi (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.71	24.9%	11.4%	192	-0.44	—	—	—
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	83
James Proctor R 2021 · 3.99 FIP	23	SP	3.99	22.0%	15.2%	1.5%	.277	4.39	14.0%	1.5%	48	+0.40	3.99	109	83
Angel Guzman R 2006 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	22.1%	13.2%	3.3%	.353	3.88	19.6%	12.0%	91	-0.85	3.13	147	83
R.J. Freure R 2019 · 5.13 FIP	22	SP-	5.13	21.7%	18.5%	2.8%	.286	6.05	21.4%	4.2%	107	+0.92	5.13	196	83
Jimmy Endersby R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP-	4.29	20.9%	14.1%	2.1%	.310	5.71	16.3%	4.2%	225	+1.42	2.86	357	82
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	81
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	81
Kyle Bradish R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.84	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.72	2.20	750	80
Max Bain R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	20.5%	15.2%	3.5%	.291	6.70	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.49	5.21	174	80
Gabriel Encinas R 2015 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	20.9%	17.0%	1.4%	.291	5.46	17.3%	-10.3%	47	+1.20	2.92	145	80
Dean Deetz R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP-	4.32	22.2%	13.7%	2.5%	.298	4.73	29.1%	10.7%	68	+0.41	2.61	281	80
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	452	79
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	79
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.15	22.0%	9.5%	123	+0.85	4.30	181	79
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	79
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	79
Richard Guasch R 2021 · 5.50 FIP	23	SP-	5.50	20.5%	15.3%	4.0%	.293	4.01	22.5%	6.7%	90	-1.49	2.94	316	79
Luis Quiñones R 2021 · 4.82 FIP	24	SP	4.82	26.6%	21.5%	2.2%	.290	4.79	22.7%	9.3%	231	-0.03	3.69	326	79
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	78
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	59	25.4%	13.3%	1.21	4.76
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Amir Garrett ('24)	1.7	55	26.7%	13.3%	1.52	4.95
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*