Michael Lombardi
P
Columbia Fireflies
Age 22
RHP
6'3" / 201 lbs
A
peak 0.5 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION65 act + 35 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125115vR 106
ERA4.66
FIP4.66
K%24.9%
BB%12.9%
K-BB%12.1%
ROS IP35
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 100 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 16 | 11 | 65 | 278 | 96 | 41 | 8 | 69% | 4.0 | 25.6% | 17.4% | 8.2% | 3.7% | 2.78 | 5.20 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | KC | 6 | 6 | 35 | 149 | 37 | 19 | 4 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.9% | 12.9% | 12.1% | 3.0% | 4.66 | 4.66 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | KC | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 24.9% | 12.9% | 12.1% | 3.0% | 4.66 | 4.66 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | KC | — | — | 100 | 427 | 133 | 60 | 12 | — | — | 31.2% | 14.1% | 17.1% | 2.9% | 3.45 | 5.01 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | KC | 6 | 6 | 37 | 155 | 39 | 18 | 5 | 100% | 6.1 | 25.5% | 11.7% | 13.8% | 3.0% | 4.52 | 4.44 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | KC | 3 | 3 | 18 | 76 | 19 | 9 | 2 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.5% | 11.7% | 13.8% | 3.0% | 4.52 | 4.44 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 3 | 3 | 18 | 76 | 19 | 9 | 2 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.5% | 11.7% | 13.8% | 3.0% | 4.52 | 4.06 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 211 | 100 | 22 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.5% | 11.7% | 13.8% | 3.0% | 4.52 | 4.06 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 16 | 11 | 65 | 278 | 71 | 48 | 10 | 69% | 4.0 | 25.6% | 17.4% | 8.2% | 3.7% | 2.78 | 5.20 | -0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 34 | 200 | 860 | 220 | 150 | 32 | 69% | 4.0 | 25.6% | 17.4% | 8.2% | 3.7% | 2.78 | 5.20 | +0.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Michael Lombardi (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.66 | 24.9% | 12.9% | 3.0% | — | 4.44 | 25.5% | 13.8% | 37 | -0.22 | — | — | — |
| Michael Knorr R 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .312 | 5.16 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +1.13 | 4.03 | 152 | 89 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2027 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.45 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .275 | 4.09 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.36 | 3.05 | 181 | 86 |
| Jake Lyons R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.41 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 2.5% | .325 | 4.72 | 19.4% | 9.2% | 105 | +0.31 | 4.31 | 174 | 81 |
| Ray Gaither R 2028 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.91 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .314 | 4.49 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.42 | 4.16 | 164 | 81 |
| Chad Donato R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .333 | 3.99 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 184 | +0.14 | 2.91 | 439 | 80 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2027 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.53 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.05 | 4.07 | 338 | 79 |
| Tanner Hall R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.56 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 3.0% | .295 | 5.39 | 10.1% | -4.6% | 72 | +0.83 | 4.56 | 137 | 78 |
| Ricky Castro R 2028 · 3.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.93 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .287 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 140 | +0.65 | 3.90 | 202 | 78 |
| Brandon Young R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.07 | 24.5% | 12.3% | 2.7% | .297 | 3.46 | 22.4% | 14.1% | 150 | -0.61 | 3.11 | 420 | 78 |
| Pat Gallagher R 2027 · 3.56 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.56 | 21.9% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .284 | 3.43 | 20.0% | 10.3% | 195 | -0.13 | 2.97 | 258 | 78 |
| Grant Judkins R 2027 · 5.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.40 | 21.0% | 11.2% | 4.8% | .346 | 5.85 | 16.4% | 5.4% | 150 | +0.45 | 5.40 | 322 | 78 |
| Sam Benschoter R 2028 · 3.96 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.96 | 26.3% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .344 | 5.03 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 306 | +1.07 | 3.58 | 426 | 77 |
| Jimmy Kingsbury R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.00 | 21.9% | 9.8% | 2.7% | .175 | 4.15 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 168 | +0.15 | 3.59 | 307 | 77 |
| Zach Peek R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.57 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .339 | 3.40 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 45 | -0.17 | 3.40 | 233 | 77 |
| Jared Lyons R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.40 | 20.1% | 15.3% | 1.9% | .345 | 3.85 | 19.6% | 10.9% | 164 | -0.55 | 3.27 | 218 | 77 |
| Bryce Conley R 2027 · 4.94 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.94 | 20.2% | 12.2% | 3.7% | .269 | 4.98 | 17.4% | 3.3% | 197 | +0.04 | 4.60 | 529 | 77 |
| Mason McGwire R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.50 | 23.5% | 10.9% | 1.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 128 | 76 |
| Connor Cooke R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .350 | 4.29 | 24.6% | 10.4% | 56 | +0.82 | 2.92 | 103 | 76 |
| River Ryan R 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.58 | 26.1% | 12.2% | 2.1% | .321 | 3.86 | 20.4% | 9.1% | 134 | +0.28 | 2.13 | 218 | 76 |
| Trace Bright R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.39 | 26.3% | 14.7% | 3.0% | .297 | 4.58 | 19.5% | 4.9% | 274 | +0.19 | 4.22 | 373 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 36 | 25.2% | 12.3% | 1.16 | 4.59 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |