Marlon Nieves

P Ontario Tower Buzzers

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 170 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.9 · 2033

Overview

APROSPECTFG #295MiLBFA 2035

Scout OFP42ETA2028FG ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	ROKDSL LAD Bauti…	11	11	32	4.78	4.10	26.4%	16.0%	—	K 17.9% · BB 20.0% · FIP 5.63
2025	20	MIX2 levels	20	16	84	2.79	2.74	26.9%	12.6%	—	K 18.9% · BB 15.3% · FIP 3.82
2026	21	MIX2 levels	16	14	53	5.09	3.57	25.0%	16.5%	—	K 18.2% · BB 20.9% · FIP 4.82
2027PROJ	22	MLBLAD	9	9	52	5.71	5.71	19.5%	19.1%	-0.5
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBLAD	7	7	39	5.44	5.32	20.7%	16.4%	-0.2
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBLAD	10	10	56	5.16	5.02	21.5%	14.5%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$1M2033Arb-2$2M2034Arb-3$3M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff48Control40Command40FB velo60

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 3, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 87%

CompsHunter Parks (age 22) · Marco Jimenez (age 22) · Aaron Hernandez (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 142133vR 125

ERA5.71

FIP5.71

K%19.5%

BB%19.1%

K-BB%0.4%

Proj IP52

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4550

CTRL—40

CMD3040

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-1	$1M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-2	$2M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$3M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.0M		$2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	11	9	21	104	17	21	1	82%	1.9	11.1%	25.2%	-14.1%	1.0%	6.43	5.92	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Bautista	11	9	21	104	17	21	1	82%	1.9	16.3%	20.2%	-3.8%	1.0%	6.43	5.10	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	11	11	32	144	38	23	3	100%	2.9	17.9%	20.0%	-2.0%	2.8%	4.78	5.63	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	11	11	32	144	38	23	3	100%	2.9	17.9%	20.0%	-2.0%	2.8%	4.78	5.63	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Bautista	11	11	32	144	38	23	3	100%	2.9	26.4%	16.0%	10.4%	2.1%	4.78	4.10	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	16	84	350	94	44	2	80%	4.2	18.9%	15.3%	3.6%	0.7%	2.79	3.82	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	16	84	350	94	44	2	80%	4.2	18.9%	15.3%	3.6%	0.7%	2.79	3.82	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	16	84	350	94	44	2	80%	4.2	26.9%	12.6%	14.3%	0.6%	2.79	2.74	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	14	53	248	62	41	2	88%	3.3	18.2%	20.9%	-2.7%	1.1%	5.09	4.82	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	14	53	248	62	41	2	88%	3.3	18.2%	20.9%	-2.7%	1.1%	5.09	4.82	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	14	53	248	62	41	2	88%	3.3	25.0%	16.5%	8.5%	0.8%	5.09	3.57	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	LAD	9	9	52	220	43	42	6	100%	5.8	19.5%	19.1%	0.4%	2.7%	5.71	5.71	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	LAD	14	14	78	331	69	54	9	100%	5.6	20.7%	16.4%	4.4%	2.6%	5.38	5.26	-0.3
2029	24	MLB MLE	LAD	14	14	80	339	73	49	9	100%	5.7	21.5%	14.5%	6.9%	2.6%	5.10	4.96	-0.1
2030	25	MLB MLE	LAD	14	14	81	344	75	46	9	100%	5.8	21.9%	13.3%	8.6%	2.6%	4.89	4.77	+0.1
2031	26	MLB MLE	LAD	14	14	81	344	76	45	9	100%	5.8	22.1%	13.1%	9.0%	2.7%	4.79	4.74	+0.2
2032	27	MLB MLE	LAD	13	13	80	339	75	45	9	100%	6.2	22.1%	13.2%	8.9%	2.7%	4.78	4.78	+0.1
2033	28	MLB MLE	LAD	13	13	78	328	79	41	9	100%	6.0	23.9%	12.6%	11.4%	2.8%	4.67	4.59	+0.3
2034	29	MLB MLE	LAD	12	12	74	314	74	40	9	100%	6.2	23.7%	12.8%	10.9%	3.0%	4.70	4.72	+0.2
2035	30	MLB MLE	LAD	12	12	70	295	69	39	9	100%	5.8	23.4%	13.1%	10.3%	3.2%	4.82	4.90	0.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	LAD	7	7	39	165	34	27	5	100%	5.6	20.7%	16.4%	4.4%	2.8%	5.44	5.32	-0.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	LAD	10	10	56	236	51	34	7	100%	5.6	21.5%	14.5%	6.9%	2.8%	5.16	5.02	-0.0
2030	25	MLB CTX	LAD	11	11	66	279	61	37	8	100%	6.0	21.9%	13.3%	8.6%	2.8%	4.95	4.83	+0.1
2031	26	MLB CTX	LAD	12	12	71	300	66	39	8	100%	5.9	22.1%	13.1%	9.0%	2.8%	4.85	4.80	+0.1
2032	27	MLB CTX	LAD	12	12	72	304	67	40	9	100%	6.0	22.1%	13.2%	8.9%	2.8%	4.84	4.84	+0.1
2033	28	MLB CTX	LAD	12	12	72	304	73	38	9	100%	6.0	23.9%	12.6%	11.4%	2.9%	4.74	4.66	+0.3
2034	29	MLB CTX	LAD	12	12	69	291	69	37	9	100%	5.8	23.7%	12.8%	10.9%	3.1%	4.77	4.79	+0.1
2035	30	MLB CTX	LAD	11	11	65	274	64	36	9	100%	5.9	23.4%	13.1%	10.3%	3.3%	4.89	4.97	0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		87	87	510	2155	486	289	63	100%	5.9	22.5%	13.4%	9.1%	2.9%	4.92	4.49	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	190	113	25	100%	5.9	22.5%	13.4%	9.1%	2.9%	4.92	4.49	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		58	50	190	846	149	160	10	86%	3.3	17.6%	19.0%	-1.4%	1.2%	4.17	4.68	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	53	200	891	156	169	11	86%	3.3	17.6%	19.0%	-1.4%	1.2%	4.17	4.68	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Marlon Nieves (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.71	19.5%	19.1%	2.7%	—	4.99	21.4%	6.7%	240	-0.72	—	—	—
Hunter Parks R 2023 · 5.15 FIP	22	SP	5.15	18.9%	19.3%	2.2%	.265	4.95	20.8%	4.6%	139	-0.20	4.42	301	85
Marco Jimenez R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	22	SP-	5.27	19.6%	17.7%	2.9%	.372	3.89	18.3%	6.7%	148	-1.38	3.36	183	84
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	84
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	84
Jacob Watters R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	22	SP	4.87	18.3%	17.1%	2.1%	.319	4.38	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.49	3.85	165	84
Jackson Fristoe R 2023 · 6.07 FIP	22	SP-	6.07	17.0%	24.2%	2.5%	.258	6.12	15.3%	-2.9%	112	+0.05	4.81	139	84
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	83
Kohl Franklin R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	17.8%	14.6%	3.3%	.320	5.66	19.9%	7.9%	105	+0.42	4.38	205	82
Peyton Pallette R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	15.1%	3.8%	.254	3.91	23.8%	12.0%	201	-1.65	3.54	273	81
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	81
Nolan Perry R 2024 · 4.88 FIP	20	SP	4.88	20.4%	22.2%	1.2%	.303	3.62	27.9%	16.8%	83	-1.26	3.62	167	80
Gage Stanifer R 2024 · 5.65 FIP	20	SP	5.65	17.2%	21.4%	2.4%	.318	3.96	26.2%	11.6%	199	-1.69	2.85	301	79
Holt Jones R 2022 · 6.63 FIP	23	SP	6.63	17.9%	19.5%	4.7%	.296	4.64	18.4%	0.8%	147	-1.99	4.21	254	79
Dane Acker R 2022 · 5.60 FIP	23	SP	5.60	19.3%	15.2%	4.0%	.284	4.39	20.2%	8.6%	215	-1.21	4.29	257	79
Jefferson Jean R 2024 · 6.45 FIP	19	SP-	6.45	18.3%	21.5%	4.0%	.311	4.79	16.9%	-0.3%	87	-1.66	4.79	132	79
Alex Vallecillo R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	21	SP-	4.75	18.6%	16.3%	2.1%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	4.51	152	79
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.13	23.2%	9.3%	203	-1.71	3.51	226	78
Fernando Baez R 2015 · 6.56 FIP	23	SP-	6.56	18.6%	18.8%	4.8%	.322	4.51	26.9%	7.8%	94	-2.05	3.45	129	78
Rubén Menes R 2024 · 5.62 FIP	22	SP-	5.62	15.8%	15.2%	3.5%	.235	4.77	15.6%	2.4%	81	-0.85	3.39	112	78
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.4	75	22.2%	14.1%	1.07	4.96
Doug Capilla ('76-'81, 1 WAR*)	1.5	73	20.1%*	13.5%*	0.98*	4.78*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Dave Jolly ('53-'57, -0 WAR*)	1.5	58	20.2%*	14.3%*	0.91*	4.33*
Rob Tejeda ('05-'11, 3 WAR*)	2.2	74	21.8%*	12.6%*	1.00*	4.23*
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Jay Witasick ('07)	3.7	73	19.6%	11.0%	1.19	4.64