Ledwin Gonzalez prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Ledwin Gonzalez P DSL Orioles Black

Age 20 LHP 5'11" / 160 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 9 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130138vR 146

ERA5.96

FIP5.96

K%21.3%

BB%21.0%

K-BB%0.3%

ROS IP10

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 9 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	14	3	29	126	29	16	1	21%	2.0	15.7%	15.9%	-0.2%	1.3%	3.14	4.51	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	14	3	29	126	29	16	1	21%	2.0	15.7%	15.9%	-0.2%	1.3%	3.14	4.51	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Orange	14	3	29	126	29	16	1	21%	2.0	23.0%	12.7%	10.3%	0.8%	3.14	3.20	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	12	0	12	79	13	24	0	0%	1.0	11.2%	38.0%	-26.8%	0.0%	13.14	6.97	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	12	0	12	79	13	24	0	0%	1.0	11.2%	38.0%	-26.8%	0.0%	13.14	6.97	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Black	12	0	12	79	13	24	0	0%	1.0	16.5%	30.4%	-13.9%	0.0%	13.14	6.83	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	20	MLB	BAL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.3%	21.0%	0.3%	3.0%	5.96	5.96	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	BAL	19	0	20	84	19	15	2	0%	1.1	21.9%	17.6%	4.3%	2.9%	5.59	5.45	-0.2
2027	21	MLB CTX	BAL	10	0	10	42	9	7	1	0%	1.0	21.9%	17.6%	4.3%	2.9%	5.59	5.45	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	42	9	7	1	0%	1.1	21.9%	17.6%	4.3%	2.9%	5.59	5.07	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	183	142	20	0%	1.1	21.9%	17.6%	4.3%	2.9%	5.59	5.07	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		26	3	41	205	29	50	2	12%	1.6	13.9%	24.4%	-10.5%	0.8%	6.15	5.46	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		127	15	200	1000	139	244	8	12%	1.6	13.9%	24.4%	-10.5%	0.8%	6.15	5.46	-2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ledwin Gonzalez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.96	21.3%	21.0%	3.0%	—	5.45	21.9%	4.3%	20	-0.51	—	—	—
CD Pelham L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	20	SU	4.77	18.8%	18.7%	1.6%	.286	4.00	20.4%	7.8%	109	-0.77	3.39	288	84
Gregori Louis L 2023 · 6.48 FIP	20	SU	6.48	17.3%	20.4%	4.1%	.241	4.37	19.6%	2.9%	111	-2.11	3.58	149	81
Jayvien Sandridge L 2019 · 6.78 FIP	20	SU	6.78	19.0%	23.9%	4.1%	.324	3.61	27.9%	5.2%	41	-3.17	3.25	223	79
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	79
Yordy Herrera L 2023 · 4.98 FIP	18	SU	4.98	20.6%	23.1%	1.3%	.283	4.88	21.2%	1.8%	117	-0.10	3.87	163	79
Austin Hamilton L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.0%	15.6%	2.3%	.329	4.20	16.3%	8.9%	109	-0.72	4.02	135	78
Enrique Perez L 2018 · 4.81 FIP	20	SU	4.81	16.2%	14.3%	2.3%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	133	78
Jeff Belge L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SU	4.91	24.0%	18.8%	2.7%	.343	3.68	24.2%	10.4%	131	-1.23	3.30	175	77
Starlin Savinon L 2023 · 7.01 FIP	18	SU	7.01	14.9%	27.3%	3.1%	.327	3.87	17.2%	2.4%	109	-3.14	3.67	128	77
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	77
Julian Bosnic L 2023 · 5.72 FIP	23	SU	5.72	22.5%	21.0%	3.4%	.206	4.74	19.1%	-0.1%	90	-0.98	4.31	136	77
Christian Chamberlain L 2022 · 6.42 FIP	23	SU	6.42	23.4%	21.7%	4.6%	.330	4.12	24.1%	5.4%	99	-2.30	3.91	148	77
Oriel Castro L 2021 · 4.95 FIP	20	SW	4.95	19.6%	19.0%	2.0%	.390	5.41	16.3%	-0.1%	41	+0.46	4.63	129	77
Daniel Gonzalez L 2022 · 5.66 FIP	20	SU	5.66	16.3%	14.0%	3.9%	.310	4.44	23.2%	1.7%	55	-1.22	4.34	136	75
Anfernny Reyes L 2023 · 4.98 FIP	19	SU	4.98	21.6%	13.6%	3.6%	.282	4.34	21.0%	1.8%	99	-0.64	2.89	175	73
Max Green L 2018 · 4.87 FIP	22	SU	4.87	15.7%	13.3%	2.6%	.352	4.41	13.9%	6.6%	86	-0.46	4.19	169	73
Edison Suriel L 2018 · 6.39 FIP	19	SU	6.39	16.8%	20.5%	3.8%	.341	2.16	21.4%	14.6%	17	-4.23	2.16	159	73
Jordan Norberto L 2010 · 6.32 FIP	23	SU	6.32	16.0%	22.3%	3.2%	.236	3.89	21.7%	12.3%	52	-2.43	3.89	117	72
Brayan De Paula L 2019 · 6.00 FIP	20	SW	6.00	16.9%	16.4%	4.1%	.272	4.58	20.9%	6.1%	59	-1.42	3.57	243	72
Nathanael Heredia L 2021 · 4.92 FIP	20	SU	4.92	19.3%	25.3%	0.4%	.326	4.49	18.2%	1.2%	156	-0.43	3.74	290	71