Grades · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | GCL Orioles | 15 | 0 | 18 | 79 | 18 | 12 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 15.5% | 19.0% | -3.5% | 1.8% | 2.00 | 5.17 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | GCL Orioles | 15 | 0 | 18 | 79 | 18 | 12 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.8% | 15.2% | 7.6% | 1.3% | 2.00 | 3.82 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | ROK | GCL Orioles | 11 | 0 | 13 | 68 | 19 | 13 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 19.0% | 23.9% | -4.9% | 4.1% | 5.54 | 6.78 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | ROK | GCL Orioles | 11 | 0 | 13 | 68 | 19 | 13 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 27.9% | 19.1% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 5.54 | 5.18 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | ACL Reds | 7 | 0 | 9 | 44 | 12 | 8 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 27.3% | 18.2% | 9.1% | 2.3% | 7.00 | 4.35 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | ACL Reds | 7 | 0 | 9 | 44 | 12 | 8 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 27.3% | 18.2% | 9.1% | 2.3% | 7.00 | 4.54 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 0 | 41 | 180 | 67 | 35 | 0 | 0% | 1.5 | 27.9% | 22.7% | 5.3% | 0.0% | 3.10 | 3.61 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 0 | 41 | 180 | 67 | 35 | 0 | 0% | 1.5 | 37.2% | 19.4% | 17.8% | 0.0% | 3.10 | 2.39 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 1 | 63 | 278 | 91 | 50 | 5 | 3% | 1.6 | 24.9% | 20.3% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 3.71 | 5.04 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 1 | 63 | 278 | 91 | 50 | 5 | 3% | 1.6 | 32.7% | 18.0% | 14.7% | 1.8% | 3.71 | 3.62 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 0 | 61 | 285 | 95 | 46 | 7 | 0% | 1.2 | 28.4% | 17.2% | 11.2% | 2.3% | 4.28 | 4.16 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 0 | 61 | 285 | 95 | 46 | 7 | 0% | 1.2 | 33.3% | 16.1% | 17.2% | 2.5% | 4.28 | 3.74 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 4 levels | 39 | 0 | 37 | 171 | 56 | 21 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.1% | 12.6% | 16.6% | 2.0% | 5.06 | 3.35 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 4 levels | 39 | 0 | 37 | 171 | 56 | 21 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 32.7% | 12.3% | 20.5% | 2.3% | 5.06 | 3.18 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 6 | 0 | 5 | 33 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 0% | 0.9 | — | — | — | — | 10.12 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | BAL | 24 | 0 | 26 | 109 | 28 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.2% | 12.8% | 13.4% | 2.8% | 4.41 | 4.41 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | BAL | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.2% | 12.8% | 13.4% | 2.8% | 4.41 | 4.41 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 31 | 142 | 35 | 22 | 3 | — | — | 25.0% | 15.4% | 9.6% | 2.1% | 5.39 | 3.65 | +0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 3 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 26.2% | 12.8% | 13.4% | 2.8% | 4.41 | 4.03 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 24 | 0 | 25 | 105 | 27 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.8% | 12.6% | 13.2% | 2.9% | 4.45 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 10 | 0 | 11 | 46 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.8% | 12.6% | 13.2% | 2.9% | 4.45 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 14 | 0 | 14 | 62 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.6% | 14.6% | 11.9% | 4.2% | 5.53 | 5.02 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 196 | 0 | 200 | 891 | 232 | 130 | 43 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.6% | 14.6% | 11.9% | 4.2% | 5.53 | 5.02 | +0.9 | ||
| Career | — | 197 | 1 | 247 | 1138 | 294 | 215 | 23 | 1% | 1.3 | 25.9% | 18.9% | 7.0% | 2.0% | 4.18 | 4.41 | +2.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 159 | 1 | 200 | 920 | 238 | 174 | 18 | 1% | 1.3 | 25.9% | 18.9% | 7.0% | 2.0% | 4.18 | 4.41 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jayvien Sandridge (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.41 | 26.2% | 12.8% | 2.8% | — | 4.48 | 25.8% | 13.2% | 25 | +0.07 | — | — | — |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.86 | 27.4% | 12.9% | 2.6% | .284 | 3.06 | 23.4% | 16.7% | 53 | -0.80 | 3.06 | 145 | 78 |
| Jake Diekman L 2027 · 3.40 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.40 | 26.5% | 11.9% | 1.9% | .310 | 3.21 | 27.0% | 15.3% | 106 | -0.19 | 2.33 | 455 | 76 |
| Edward Paredes L 2028 · 3.49 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.49 | 24.1% | 13.0% | 1.4% | .225 | 3.53 | 23.7% | 14.0% | 86 | +0.04 | 2.29 | 130 | 75 |
| Chasen Shreve L 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.10 | 29.3% | 11.1% | 3.8% | .245 | 4.33 | 26.8% | 15.4% | 138 | +0.23 | 3.94 | 470 | 73 |
| Bailey Horn L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.24 | 23.8% | 11.7% | 3.0% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 265 | 73 |
| Fabian Williamson L 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.46 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 2.2% | .259 | 5.31 | 16.5% | -3.3% | 54 | +1.85 | 3.46 | 154 | 73 |
| Giovanni Soto L 2025 · 3.96 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.96 | 25.6% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 128 | 73 |
| Mike Dunn L 2029 · 3.76 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.76 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.09 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.33 | 3.72 | 181 | 73 |
| Locke St. John L 2025 · 3.96 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.96 | 26.1% | 11.4% | 2.9% | .296 | 4.16 | 21.5% | 10.4% | 108 | +0.20 | 3.02 | 389 | 72 |
| Tim Mayza L 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.38 | 24.2% | 11.0% | 3.5% | .266 | 3.31 | 25.0% | 19.6% | 102 | -1.07 | 2.24 | 559 | 72 |
| Jerry Vasto L 2025 · 3.44 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.44 | 24.0% | 11.5% | 1.7% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.84 | 206 | 72 |
| Dylan Phillips L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.01 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 221 | 72 |
| Travis Bergen L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.91 | 26.7% | 15.9% | 1.9% | .308 | 4.83 | 19.3% | -1.2% | 24 | +0.92 | 2.52 | 143 | 72 |
| Kevin Chapman L 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.32 | 21.9% | 11.1% | 1.2% | .368 | 3.66 | 21.7% | 11.5% | 100 | +0.34 | 3.04 | 153 | 72 |
| Reagan Todd L 2025 · 3.74 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.74 | 25.6% | 12.0% | 2.3% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 122 | 71 |
| Josh Edgin L 2028 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 22.1% | 13.2% | 1.2% | .359 | 3.67 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 80 | +0.09 | 3.36 | 113 | 71 |
| Aaron Brown L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.88 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 1.8% | .317 | 4.79 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 129 | +0.91 | 3.88 | 269 | 71 |
| A.J. Block L 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.64 | 22.7% | 12.4% | 1.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 203 | 71 |
| Erik Rivera L 2024 · 4.69 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.69 | 25.3% | 15.4% | 3.2% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.69 | 122 | 71 |
| Riley Martin L 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.35 | 27.0% | 14.1% | 1.4% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 266 | 71 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 25 | 26.0% | 12.7% | 1.09 | 4.43 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |