Peyton Alford
P
Tacoma Rainiers
Age 28
LHP
6'0" / 190 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION37 act + 69 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111120vR 129
ERA4.88
FIP4.88
K%24.1%
BB%12.1%
K-BB%12.0%
ROS IP69
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 106 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 12 | 0 | 20 | 90 | 27 | 7 | 6 | 0% | 1.7 | 24.3% | 8.1% | 16.2% | 11.4% | 6.30 | 8.32 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 12 | 0 | 20 | 90 | 27 | 7 | 6 | 0% | 1.7 | 30.0% | 7.8% | 22.2% | 6.7% | 6.30 | 5.35 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 2 | 57 | 265 | 77 | 42 | 3 | 5% | 1.5 | 22.8% | 17.8% | 5.0% | 1.2% | 5.72 | 4.09 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 2 | 57 | 265 | 77 | 42 | 3 | 5% | 1.5 | 29.1% | 15.8% | 13.2% | 1.1% | 5.72 | 3.29 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 41 | 0 | 48 | 195 | 71 | 21 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 28.0% | 12.4% | 15.7% | 2.5% | 2.83 | 3.67 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 41 | 0 | 48 | 195 | 71 | 21 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 36.4% | 10.8% | 25.6% | 2.1% | 2.83 | 2.53 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 43 | 0 | 57 | 215 | 63 | 23 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.7% | 11.8% | 12.0% | 3.5% | 2.20 | 4.50 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 43 | 0 | 57 | 215 | 63 | 23 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 29.3% | 10.7% | 18.6% | 1.9% | 2.20 | 3.01 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 43 | 0 | 56 | 237 | 67 | 26 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 22.9% | 12.1% | 10.8% | 5.1% | 4.18 | 5.47 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 43 | 0 | 56 | 237 | 67 | 26 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 28.3% | 11.0% | 17.3% | 2.5% | 4.18 | 3.49 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 29 | 0 | 37 | 152 | 55 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 30.5% | 9.7% | 20.7% | 2.2% | 2.43 | 2.95 | +0.7 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | SEA | 66 | 0 | 69 | 293 | 70 | 35 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 12.1% | 12.0% | 3.5% | 4.88 | 4.88 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | SEA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.1% | 12.1% | 12.0% | 3.5% | 4.88 | 4.88 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 106 | 445 | 125 | 49 | 13 | — | — | 28.2% | 11.1% | 17.1% | 3.0% | 4.03 | 4.21 | +1.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 24.1% | 12.1% | 12.0% | 3.5% | 4.88 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 63 | 0 | 66 | 280 | 66 | 34 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.8% | 12.0% | 11.7% | 3.6% | 4.90 | 4.95 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 59 | 0 | 62 | 263 | 61 | 32 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 12.1% | 11.3% | 3.7% | 4.99 | 5.08 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 20 | 0 | 21 | 89 | 21 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.8% | 12.0% | 11.7% | 3.6% | 4.90 | 4.95 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 30 | 0 | 32 | 135 | 32 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 12.1% | 11.3% | 3.7% | 4.99 | 5.08 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 51 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 54 | 28 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.6% | 12.1% | 11.5% | 3.7% | 4.95 | 4.65 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 200 | 104 | 30 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.6% | 12.1% | 11.5% | 3.7% | 4.95 | 4.65 | +1.8 | ||
| Career | — | 205 | 2 | 275 | 1154 | 288 | 147 | 41 | 1% | 1.3 | 25.0% | 12.8% | 12.2% | 3.6% | 3.77 | 4.56 | +2.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 149 | 1 | 200 | 840 | 210 | 107 | 30 | 1% | 1.3 | 25.0% | 12.8% | 12.2% | 3.6% | 3.77 | 4.56 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Peyton Alford (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.88 | 24.1% | 12.1% | 3.5% | — | 5.01 | 23.6% | 11.5% | 128 | +0.13 | — | — | — |
| Mike Dunn L 2028 · 3.76 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.76 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.09 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.33 | 3.72 | 181 | 81 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.06 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.73 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.33 | 3.73 | 108 | 81 |
| Aaron Brown L 2025 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.88 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 1.8% | .317 | 4.79 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 129 | +0.91 | 3.88 | 269 | 81 |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.24 | 21.3% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .308 | 5.05 | 13.8% | -5.1% | 35 | +0.81 | 3.43 | 134 | 80 |
| Josh Smoker L 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.20 | 25.5% | 9.4% | 3.8% | .329 | 4.44 | 20.2% | 11.3% | 59 | +0.24 | 2.66 | 230 | 79 |
| Juan Grullon L 2024 · 4.86 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.86 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 134 | 79 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.84 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.9% | .267 | 3.21 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.63 | 2.44 | 124 | 78 |
| Josh Osich L 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.01 | 21.4% | 12.9% | 3.8% | .328 | 4.42 | 21.1% | 14.1% | 143 | -0.59 | 3.47 | 315 | 78 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.80 | 26.8% | 8.9% | 3.4% | .242 | 4.68 | 22.9% | 11.7% | 109 | +0.88 | 3.80 | 172 | 77 |
| Kevin Siegrist L 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.00 | 25.0% | 11.6% | 2.8% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.67 | 176 | 77 |
| Dylan Phillips L 2025 · 4.01 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.01 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 221 | 77 |
| Zac Rosscup L 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.69 | 24.6% | 11.0% | 4.1% | .296 | 2.67 | 29.5% | 21.7% | 40 | -2.02 | 2.51 | 160 | 77 |
| Adam Loewen L 2029 · 3.90 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.90 | 25.1% | 15.9% | 1.7% | .287 | 3.58 | 23.2% | 7.3% | 98 | -0.32 | 2.96 | 176 | 77 |
| Jason Blanchard L 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.60 | 19.9% | 12.4% | 2.9% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 171 | 76 |
| Chasen Shreve L 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.91 | 26.4% | 11.5% | 4.7% | .311 | 4.24 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 141 | -0.67 | 3.94 | 470 | 75 |
| Jordan Harrison L 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.93 | 19.1% | 9.7% | 2.2% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 244 | 74 |
| Brendan Cellucci L 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.71 | 22.3% | 12.5% | 3.5% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.96 | 265 | 74 |
| Sammy Solís L 2026 · 5.97 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.97 | 20.9% | 11.5% | 5.8% | .250 | 4.31 | 25.4% | 16.0% | 62 | -1.66 | 2.51 | 190 | 74 |
| Will Lamb L 2024 · 5.47 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.47 | 20.0% | 14.0% | 4.2% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 178 | 73 |
| James Reeves L 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.24 | 27.0% | 16.2% | 4.3% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.02 | 280 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 66 | 23.8% | 12.1% | 1.39 | 4.92 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |