Peyton Alford

P Tacoma Rainiers

Age 29 LHP 6'0" / 190 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	AASEA	43	0	57	2.20	3.01	29.3%	10.7%	—	K 23.7% · BB 11.8% · FIP 4.08
2025	27	AASEA	43	0	56	4.18	3.49	28.3%	11.0%	—	K 22.9% · BB 12.1% · FIP 4.78
2026	28	MIX2 levels	46	1	61	3.08	3.03	31.6%	10.3%	—	K 26.6% · BB 9.4% · FIP 3.48
2027PROJ	29	MLBSEA	7	0	7	4.36	4.36	25.6%	10.8%	0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	30	MLBSEA	20	0	21	4.46	4.53	25.0%	10.9%	0.0
2029PROJ55% MLB	31	MLBSEA	25	0	26	4.61	4.71	24.5%	11.1%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Control40Command50

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.5, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsRaul Valdes (age 32) · Yuki Matsui (age 28) · Kyle Regnault (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100108vR 116

ERA4.36

FIP4.36

K%25.6%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%14.8%

Proj IP69

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4040

CMD5050

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	12	0	20	90	27	7	6	0%	1.7	24.3%	8.1%	16.2%	12.2%	6.30	8.77	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	12	0	20	90	27	7	6	0%	1.7	30.0%	7.8%	22.2%	6.7%	6.30	5.35	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	2	57	265	77	42	3	5%	1.5	22.8%	17.8%	5.0%	1.3%	5.72	4.13	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	2	57	265	77	42	3	5%	1.5	29.1%	15.8%	13.2%	1.1%	5.72	3.29	—
2023	25	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	41	0	48	195	71	21	4	0%	1.2	28.0%	12.4%	15.7%	2.5%	2.83	3.69	—
2023	25	A+ RAW	Everett AquaSox	41	0	48	195	71	21	4	0%	1.2	36.4%	10.8%	25.6%	2.1%	2.83	2.53	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	43	0	57	215	63	23	4	0%	1.3	23.7%	11.8%	12.0%	2.7%	2.20	4.08	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	43	0	57	215	63	23	4	0%	1.3	23.7%	11.8%	12.0%	2.7%	2.20	4.08	—
2024	26	AA RAW	Arkansas Travelers	43	0	57	215	63	23	4	0%	1.3	29.3%	10.7%	18.6%	1.9%	2.20	3.01	—
2025	27	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	43	0	56	237	67	26	6	0%	1.3	22.9%	12.1%	10.8%	3.8%	4.18	4.78	—
2025	27	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	43	0	56	237	67	26	6	0%	1.3	22.9%	12.1%	10.8%	3.8%	4.18	4.78	—
2025	27	AA RAW	Arkansas Travelers	43	0	56	237	67	26	6	0%	1.3	28.3%	11.0%	17.3%	2.5%	4.18	3.49	—
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	1	61	253	80	26	6	2%	1.3	26.6%	9.4%	17.2%	2.6%	3.08	3.48	—
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	1	61	253	80	26	6	2%	1.3	26.6%	9.4%	17.2%	2.6%	3.08	3.48	—
2026	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	1	61	253	80	26	6	2%	1.3	31.6%	10.3%	21.3%	2.4%	3.08	3.03	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	SEA	7	0	7	30	8	3	1	0%	1.0	25.6%	10.8%	14.8%	3.0%	4.36	4.36	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	SEA	53	0	56	236	59	26	8	0%	1.1	25.0%	10.9%	14.1%	3.2%	4.46	4.53	+0.0
2029	31	MLB MLE	SEA	45	0	48	201	49	22	7	0%	1.1	24.5%	11.1%	13.3%	3.4%	4.61	4.71	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	SEA	20	0	21	89	22	10	3	0%	1.1	25.0%	10.9%	14.1%	3.2%	4.46	4.53	+0.0
2029	31	MLB CTX	SEA	25	0	26	110	27	12	4	0%	1.0	24.5%	11.1%	13.3%	3.4%	4.61	4.71	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		45	0	47	197	49	22	7	0%	1.0	24.7%	11.0%	13.7%	3.4%	4.54	4.25	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	210	94	30	0%	1.1	24.7%	11.0%	13.7%	3.4%	4.54	4.25	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		222	3	299	1255	309	156	41	1%	1.3	24.7%	12.5%	12.2%	3.2%	3.79	4.38	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		148	2	200	839	207	105	27	1%	1.3	24.7%	12.5%	12.2%	3.2%	3.79	4.38	-0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAATacoma Rainiers · 42 IPFIP 4.27 → 4.62 (+0.34)K% 27.8% → 23.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.78%	—	×0.860	23.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.33%	—	×0.900	12.00%
HR / BF /BF	3.33%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.67%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.27 → 4.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAArkansas Travelers · 19 IPFIP -0.02 → 0.67 (+0.69)K% 41.1% → 33.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	41.10%	—	×0.810	33.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.74%	—	×1.100	3.01%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP -0.02 → 0.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAArkansas Travelers · 56 IPFIP 3.49 → 4.78 (+1.29)K% 28.3% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.27%	—	×0.810	22.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.97%	—	×1.100	12.07%
HR / BF /BF	2.53%	÷0.800	×1.200	3.80%

Result: FIP 3.49 → 4.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAArkansas Travelers · 57 IPFIP 3.00 → 4.08 (+1.08)K% 29.3% → 23.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.30%	—	×0.810	23.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.70%	—	×1.100	11.77%
HR / BF /BF	1.86%	÷0.820	×1.200	2.72%

Result: FIP 3.00 → 4.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Everett AquaSox · 48 IPFIP 2.52 → 3.69 (+1.18)K% 36.4% → 28.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.41%	—	×0.770	28.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.77%	—	×1.150	12.38%
HR / BF /BF	2.05%	÷1.012	×1.250	2.53%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 102).

Result: FIP 2.52 → 3.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Everett AquaSox · 31 IPFIP 2.62 → 3.60 (+0.98)K% 36.2% → 27.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.17%	—	×0.770	27.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.18%	—	×1.150	16.31%
HR / BF /BF	1.42%	÷1.237	×1.250	1.43%

Result: FIP 2.62 → 3.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAArkansas Travelers · 26 IPFIP 4.02 → 4.72 (+0.70)K% 21.0% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.97%	—	×0.810	16.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.74%	—	×1.100	19.52%
HR / BF /BF	0.81%	÷0.909	×1.200	1.06%

Result: FIP 4.02 → 4.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Everett AquaSox · 12 IPFIP 7.10 → 8.77 (+1.67)K% 31.6% → 24.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.58%	—	×0.770	24.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.02%	—	×1.150	8.07%
HR / BF /BF	10.53%	÷1.078	×1.250	12.20%

Result: FIP 7.10 → 8.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Peyton Alford (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.36	25.6%	10.8%	3.0%	—	4.61	24.8%	13.7%	103	+0.25	—	—	—
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	85
Yuki Matsui L 2024 · 3.63 FIP	28	SU	3.63	26.8%	8.9%	3.0%	.242	4.25	23.9%	12.6%	140	+0.62	3.63	203	82
Kyle Regnault L 2018 · 3.82 FIP	29	SU	3.82	27.6%	9.7%	3.3%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	204	81
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	79
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	79
Edward Paredes L 2016 · 3.47 FIP	29	SU	3.47	24.1%	13.0%	1.4%	.225	3.55	23.7%	14.0%	86	+0.08	2.36	130	79
Sammy Solís L 2018 · 4.39 FIP	29	SU	4.39	24.9%	9.6%	4.0%	.330	4.05	26.2%	17.3%	23	-0.34	2.51	190	78
Clay Rapada L 2011 · 4.34 FIP	30	SU	4.34	26.1%	10.1%	3.9%	.268	3.00	24.5%	14.2%	38	-1.34	3.00	120	78
Matt Thornton L 2006 · 3.43 FIP	29	SU	3.43	21.6%	7.5%	2.2%	.263	2.61	27.2%	20.5%	196	-0.82	1.71	663	77
Josh Smoker L 2018 · 3.66 FIP	29	SU	3.66	22.1%	8.4%	2.5%	.318	6.58	14.2%	3.4%	14	+2.92	2.71	230	77
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	77
Nick Hagadone L 2015 · 3.65 FIP	29	SU	3.65	22.6%	8.9%	2.4%	.329	3.74	22.6%	13.3%	33	+0.09	2.97	141	76
Armando Almanza L 2002 · 4.34 FIP	29	SU	4.34	30.0%	11.6%	4.2%	.272	5.01	21.8%	12.0%	62	+0.67	2.90	211	75
Scott Alexander L 2018 · 3.30 FIP	29	SU	3.30	20.9%	9.3%	1.4%	.290	4.64	13.3%	5.0%	45	+1.34	2.90	427	74
Damaso Marte L 2004 · 4.27 FIP	29	SU	4.27	22.4%	9.9%	3.3%	.236	3.28	25.9%	15.1%	149	-0.99	2.41	495	74
Doug Creek L 2000 · 4.57 FIP	31	SU	4.57	27.5%	13.6%	3.8%	.267	4.75	21.9%	7.8%	132	+0.18	4.48	277	73
Vic Darensbourg L 2000 · 3.93 FIP	29	SU	3.93	21.5%	9.9%	2.5%	.298	4.26	15.3%	9.6%	97	+0.33	2.94	287	73
Arturo Barradas L 2017 · 3.42 FIP	29	SU	3.42	18.1%	7.0%	1.8%	.288	3.24	16.1%	9.5%	34	-0.18	3.24	163	72
Keith Hessler L 2018 · 4.96 FIP	29	SU	4.96	19.8%	13.3%	3.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	228	72
Jeff Ibarra L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	29	SU	3.64	18.1%	7.0%	2.1%	.342	2.85	20.6%	17.2%	29	-0.79	2.85	101	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	57	25.1%	10.9%	1.24	4.46
Colin Poche ('25)	1.1	54	26.7%	10.2%	1.32	4.01
Oliver Drake ('20)	1.0	68	26.2%	9.5%	1.06	4.27
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. ('16)	1.2	58	24.6%	11.1%	0.93	4.35
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Alberto Reyes ('95-'08, 5 WAR*)	2.1	54	27.1%*	10.2%*	1.18*	3.66*