Peyton Alford — OGILVIE

Peyton Alford P Tacoma Rainiers

Age 28 LHP 6'0" / 190 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION59 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106115vR 123

ERA4.71

FIP4.71

K%24.1%

BB%12.2%

K-BB%11.8%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4040

CMD5050

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	12	0	20	90	27	7	6	0%	1.7	24.3%	8.1%	16.2%	12.2%	6.30	8.77	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	12	0	20	90	27	7	6	0%	1.7	30.0%	7.8%	22.2%	6.7%	6.30	5.35	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	2	57	265	77	42	3	5%	1.5	22.8%	17.8%	5.0%	1.3%	5.72	4.13	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	2	57	265	77	42	3	5%	1.5	29.1%	15.8%	13.2%	1.1%	5.72	3.29	—
2023	25	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	41	0	48	195	71	21	4	0%	1.2	28.0%	12.4%	15.7%	2.5%	2.83	3.69	—
2023	25	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	41	0	48	195	71	21	4	0%	1.2	28.0%	12.4%	15.7%	2.5%	2.83	3.69	—
2023	25	A+ RAW	Everett AquaSox	41	0	48	195	71	21	4	0%	1.2	36.4%	10.8%	25.6%	2.1%	2.83	2.53	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	43	0	57	215	63	23	4	0%	1.3	23.7%	11.8%	12.0%	2.7%	2.20	4.08	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	43	0	57	215	63	23	4	0%	1.3	23.7%	11.8%	12.0%	2.7%	2.20	4.08	—
2024	26	AA RAW	Arkansas Travelers	43	0	57	215	63	23	4	0%	1.3	29.3%	10.7%	18.6%	1.9%	2.20	3.01	—
2025	27	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	43	0	56	237	67	26	6	0%	1.3	22.9%	12.1%	10.8%	3.8%	4.18	4.78	—
2025	27	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	43	0	56	237	67	26	6	0%	1.3	22.9%	12.1%	10.8%	3.8%	4.18	4.78	—
2025	27	AA RAW	Arkansas Travelers	43	0	56	237	67	26	6	0%	1.3	28.3%	11.0%	17.3%	2.5%	4.18	3.49	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	44	1	59	243	76	26	6	2%	1.3	25.7%	9.8%	15.9%	2.7%	3.07	3.66	—
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	44	1	59	243	76	26	6	2%	1.3	25.7%	9.8%	15.9%	2.7%	3.07	3.66	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AA RAW	SEA	13	0	19	73	30	2	0	0%	1.5	41.1%	2.7%	38.4%	0.0%	1.42	-0.02	—
2026	28	AAA RAW	SEA	31	1	40	170	46	24	6	3%	1.3	27.1%	14.1%	12.9%	3.5%	3.86	4.54	—
ROS	28	MLB MLE	SEA	6	0	6	25	6	3	1	0%	1.0	24.1%	12.2%	11.8%	3.1%	4.71	4.71	-0.0
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	SEA	—	—	65	268	82	29	7	—	—	30.6%	10.8%	19.8%	2.5%	3.22	3.76	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	SEA	63	0	66	280	66	34	9	0%	1.1	23.8%	12.2%	11.6%	3.3%	4.75	4.81	-0.2
2028	30	MLB MLE	SEA	59	0	62	263	61	32	9	0%	1.1	23.4%	12.2%	11.2%	3.4%	4.85	4.95	-0.3
2027	29	MLB CTX	SEA	23	0	24	101	24	12	3	0%	1.0	23.8%	12.2%	11.6%	3.3%	4.75	4.81	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	SEA	32	0	34	144	34	18	5	0%	1.1	23.4%	12.2%	11.2%	3.4%	4.85	4.95	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		56	0	59	250	59	31	8	0%	1.1	23.6%	12.2%	11.3%	3.4%	4.81	4.51	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	199	105	27	0%	1.1	23.6%	12.2%	11.3%	3.4%	4.81	4.51	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		220	3	296	1245	305	156	41	1%	1.3	24.5%	12.6%	11.9%	3.3%	3.80	4.42	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		148	2	200	840	206	105	27	1%	1.3	24.5%	12.6%	11.9%	3.3%	3.80	4.42	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Peyton Alford (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.71	24.1%	12.2%	3.1%	—	4.88	23.6%	11.4%	128	+0.17	—	—	—
Aaron Brown L 2019 · 4.04 FIP	27	SU	4.04	22.9%	13.5%	2.1%	.317	4.77	19.4%	6.7%	129	+0.73	4.04	269	83
Jeremy Horst L 2015 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	18.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.291	3.71	15.1%	2.7%	48	-0.38	3.71	108	82
Mike Dunn L 2015 · 3.75 FIP	30	SU	3.75	27.7%	11.9%	2.7%	.294	4.21	22.5%	10.9%	110	+0.46	3.71	181	81
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	81
Dario Alvarez L 2017 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	24.7%	12.4%	2.0%	.336	3.47	20.7%	8.3%	27	-0.21	3.47	160	80
Ashur Tolliver L 2016 · 4.19 FIP	28	SU	4.19	21.3%	9.8%	3.0%	.308	5.03	13.8%	-5.1%	35	+0.84	3.49	134	80
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	79
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	79
Josh Smoker L 2017 · 4.20 FIP	28	SU	4.20	25.5%	9.4%	3.8%	.329	4.35	20.2%	11.3%	59	+0.15	2.71	230	79
Adam Loewen L 2015 · 3.84 FIP	31	SU	3.84	25.1%	15.9%	1.6%	.287	3.63	23.2%	7.3%	98	-0.21	2.96	176	78
Adam Liberatore L 2015 · 3.64 FIP	28	SU	3.64	21.1%	7.3%	2.5%	.267	3.17	23.3%	15.2%	73	-0.47	2.38	124	78
Josh Osich L 2017 · 5.00 FIP	28	SU	5.00	21.4%	12.9%	3.8%	.328	4.47	21.1%	14.1%	143	-0.53	3.41	315	77
Zac Rosscup L 2015 · 4.84 FIP	27	SU	4.84	24.6%	11.0%	4.4%	.296	2.85	29.5%	21.7%	40	-1.99	2.56	160	75
Josh Edgin L 2016 · 3.64 FIP	29	SU	3.64	22.1%	13.2%	1.3%	.359	3.81	23.2%	13.6%	80	+0.17	3.63	113	75
Jeff Ibarra L 2016 · 3.75 FIP	28	SU	3.75	17.8%	9.7%	1.7%	.321	3.29	19.2%	13.8%	66	-0.46	2.85	101	75
Jordan Harrison L 2019 · 3.80 FIP	28	SU	3.80	19.1%	9.7%	2.0%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	244	75
Tommy Layne L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	30	SU	3.61	21.7%	12.1%	1.5%	.284	3.34	20.2%	11.0%	97	-0.27	1.32	182	74
Kevin Siegrist L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	28	SU	3.95	25.0%	11.6%	2.7%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	2.72	176	73
Daniel Stumpf L 2019 · 3.56 FIP	28	SU	3.56	25.2%	8.8%	2.7%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	1.84	238	73
Sam Freeman L 2015 · 4.21 FIP	28	SU	4.21	23.4%	14.6%	2.2%	.265	3.52	22.0%	10.3%	166	-0.69	3.03	299	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	66	23.8%	12.2%	1.27	4.77
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33