Starlin Savinon — OGILVIE

Starlin Savinon P FCL Rays

Age 21 LHP 6'0" / 182 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 35 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122130vR 138

ERA5.54

FIP5.54

K%18.0%

BB%15.9%

K-BB%2.2%

ROS IP36

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3030

CMD4040

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	15	0	19	96	21	21	2	0%	1.3	14.9%	27.3%	-12.5%	3.1%	7.45	7.01	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	15	0	19	96	21	21	2	0%	1.3	14.9%	27.3%	-12.5%	3.1%	7.45	7.01	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Rays	15	0	19	96	21	21	2	0%	1.3	21.9%	21.9%	0.0%	2.1%	7.45	5.53	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	16	7	41	163	29	16	1	44%	2.6	12.1%	12.3%	-0.2%	0.7%	3.95	4.04	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	16	7	41	163	29	16	1	44%	2.6	12.1%	12.3%	-0.2%	0.7%	3.95	4.04	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rays	16	7	41	163	29	16	1	44%	2.6	17.8%	9.8%	8.0%	0.6%	3.95	3.17	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	13	9	41	162	46	19	1	69%	3.2	19.3%	14.7%	4.6%	0.9%	3.05	3.82	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	13	9	41	162	46	19	1	69%	3.2	19.3%	14.7%	4.6%	0.9%	3.05	3.82	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	DSL Tampa Bay	13	9	41	162	46	19	1	69%	3.2	28.4%	11.7%	16.7%	0.6%	3.05	2.57	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	18	0	26	118	38	18	0	0%	1.5	21.9%	19.1%	2.8%	0.0%	3.76	3.67	—
YTD	21	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	18	0	26	118	38	18	0	0%	1.5	21.9%	19.1%	2.8%	0.0%	3.76	3.67	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	TB	18	0	26	118	38	18	0	0%	1.5	32.2%	15.3%	16.9%	0.0%	3.76	2.31	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	TB	37	0	39	165	32	23	5	0%	1.1	19.5%	13.9%	5.6%	2.8%	5.25	5.13	-0.2
2027	22	MLB CTX	TB	18	0	19	80	16	11	2	0%	1.1	19.5%	13.9%	5.6%	2.8%	5.25	5.13	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		18	0	19	81	16	11	2	0%	1.1	19.5%	13.9%	5.6%	2.8%	5.25	4.75	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	166	114	21	0%	1.1	19.5%	13.9%	5.6%	2.8%	5.25	4.75	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		62	16	128	539	91	92	6	26%	2.1	16.9%	17.2%	-0.3%	1.1%	4.15	4.42	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		97	25	200	842	142	145	9	26%	2.1	16.9%	17.2%	-0.3%	1.1%	4.15	4.42	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Starlin Savinon (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.54	18.0%	15.9%	2.9%	—	5.13	19.5%	5.6%	39	-0.41	—	—	—
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	83
Brayan Restituyo L 2023 · 5.53 FIP	21	SU	5.53	17.4%	17.3%	3.1%	.312	4.76	17.6%	5.6%	151	-0.77	3.66	239	81
Felix Polanco L 2021 · 5.49 FIP	21	SU	5.49	16.1%	13.0%	3.8%	.275	4.39	18.8%	6.2%	51	-1.10	3.68	105	81
Luis Silva L 2018 · 5.05 FIP	21	SU	5.05	14.1%	13.4%	2.6%	.311	6.59	8.7%	-7.4%	12	+1.54	4.48	107	80
Austin Hamilton L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.0%	15.6%	2.3%	.329	4.20	16.3%	8.9%	109	-0.72	4.02	135	79
Braeden Fausnaught L 2023 · 4.77 FIP	24	SW	4.77	16.9%	16.4%	1.8%	.287	4.60	17.9%	9.7%	179	-0.17	4.43	242	79
Max Green L 2018 · 4.87 FIP	22	SU	4.87	15.7%	13.3%	2.6%	.352	4.41	13.9%	6.6%	86	-0.46	4.19	169	79
Trevor Seidenberger L 2015 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	18.1%	14.3%	2.3%	.248	6.29	13.1%	-1.8%	52	+1.65	4.64	101	78
Ryan Wilson L 2018 · 4.72 FIP	21	SU	4.72	16.2%	13.8%	2.2%	.279	4.35	20.7%	10.3%	113	-0.37	3.43	222	78
Adrian Almeida L 2016 · 5.65 FIP	21	SU	5.65	18.6%	15.3%	4.0%	.295	4.97	18.4%	-4.1%	119	-0.68	4.27	188	78
Alex Winkelman L 2016 · 4.44 FIP	22	SW	4.44	15.8%	14.7%	1.5%	.344	3.77	18.8%	6.5%	181	-0.67	3.40	246	77
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	77
Yoldin De La Paz L 2023 · 4.38 FIP	21	SU	4.38	17.8%	15.8%	1.4%	.339	4.32	17.7%	10.5%	44	-0.06	3.51	124	77
Davis Schwab L 2019 · 4.46 FIP	22	SU	4.46	13.6%	13.8%	1.4%	.368	5.22	18.9%	-0.8%	92	+0.76	4.46	114	77
Enrique Perez L 2018 · 4.81 FIP	20	SU	4.81	16.2%	14.3%	2.3%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	133	77
Brayan De Paula L 2019 · 6.00 FIP	20	SW	6.00	16.9%	16.4%	4.1%	.272	4.58	20.9%	6.1%	59	-1.42	3.57	243	77
Graeme Stinson L 2021 · 5.66 FIP	23	SU	5.66	12.6%	12.6%	3.7%	.266	4.14	21.4%	8.7%	101	-1.52	3.56	146	77
Riger Fernandez L 2018 · 4.61 FIP	20	SU	4.61	17.2%	19.5%	0.9%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	4.61	164	76
Ty Madrigal L 2021 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	19.3%	15.7%	2.0%	.329	5.75	17.6%	2.4%	49	+1.19	4.56	107	76
Raúl Alcantara L 2022 · 4.66 FIP	21	SU	4.66	16.1%	14.6%	1.9%	.291	4.42	18.9%	3.7%	230	-0.24	3.82	396	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	37	18.8%	14.8%	1.10	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41