Starlin Savinon — OGILVIE

Starlin Savinon P DSL Tampa Bay

+0.1 WAR

Age 21 LHP 6'0" / 182 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.4 · 2028

ERA4.43

FIP4.43

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%22.4%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%12.4%

IP33

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.4peak

2028

K†5560

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	18	ROK	DSL Rays	15	0	19	96	21	21	2	14.9%	27.3%	3.3%	7.45	7.13	-0.5
2024	19	ROK	DSL Rays	16	7	41	163	29	16	1	12.1%	12.3%	0.7%	3.95	3.99	+0.4
2025	20	ROK	DSL Tampa Bay	13	9	41	162	46	19	1	19.3%	14.7%	0.9%	3.05	3.85	+0.5
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	MLB	TB	33	—	33	140	31	14	4	22.4%	10.1%	2.9%	4.43	4.43	+0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	22	MLB	TB	35	—	35	147	35	14	4	23.4%	9.3%	2.8%	4.30	4.23	+0.3
2028	23	MLB	TB	36	—	36	153	37	14	4	24.1%	8.8%	2.8%	4.18	4.09	+0.4
2029	24	MLB	TB	37	—	37	157	39	13	4	24.6%	8.6%	2.8%	4.08	4.00	+0.4
2030	25	MLB	TB	38	—	38	159	40	13	4	25.0%	8.5%	2.8%	4.01	3.95	+0.4
2031	26	MLB	TB	38	—	38	159	40	13	4	25.2%	8.4%	2.8%	3.96	3.93	+0.4
2032	27	MLB	TB	37	—	37	157	40	13	4	25.2%	8.4%	2.8%	3.95	3.94	+0.4
2033	28	MLB	TB	37	—	37	155	39	13	4	25.2%	8.5%	2.8%	3.96	3.97	+0.4
2034	29	MLB	TB	36	—	36	152	38	13	4	25.0%	8.6%	2.8%	3.99	4.01	+0.4
2035	30	MLB	TB	35	—	35	147	36	13	4	24.8%	8.7%	2.9%	4.04	4.07	+0.3
2036	31	MLB	TB	34	—	34	142	35	12	4	24.6%	8.8%	3.0%	4.11	4.15	+0.3
2037	32	MLB	TB	32	—	32	136	33	12	4	24.3%	8.9%	3.1%	4.18	4.23	+0.3
2038	33	MLB	TB	31	—	31	130	31	12	4	24.0%	9.1%	3.1%	4.27	4.33	+0.2
2039	34	MLB	TB	29	—	29	124	29	12	4	23.7%	9.3%	3.2%	4.37	4.44	+0.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			44	16	102	421	65	70	6	15.5%	16.6%	1.4%	4.25	4.65	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—			87	31	200	828	128	138	12	15.5%	16.6%	1.4%	4.25	4.65	+1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Starlin Savinon (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.43	22.4%	10.1%	2.9%	—	4.10	24.1%	15.2%	108	-0.33	—	—	—
Destin Dotson L 2026 · 3.89 FIP	21	SU	3.89	22.3%	12.2%	2.1%	.288	5.76	23.0%	3.1%	48	+1.87	2.90	113	89
Denny Bentley L 2025 · 4.85 FIP	20	SU	4.85	19.6%	10.3%	3.8%	.318	2.88	25.4%	10.3%	58	-1.97	2.88	175	87
Matt Osterberg L 2027 · 3.88 FIP	22	SU	3.88	20.2%	12.3%	1.7%	.255	4.08	15.6%	9.3%	274	+0.20	3.72	294	87
Jonathan Hennigan L 2027 · 4.03 FIP	22	SU	4.03	22.0%	13.6%	1.9%	.341	3.57	17.5%	5.8%	119	-0.46	3.46	265	87
Hogan Harris L 2027 · 3.82 FIP	22	SU	3.82	20.5%	10.6%	2.0%	.235	3.70	27.4%	12.7%	74	-0.12	3.15	442	86
Sean Mellen L 2028 · 4.59 FIP	23	SU	4.59	21.5%	12.1%	3.2%	.364	4.01	21.3%	10.9%	55	-0.58	4.01	101	86
Manuel Medina L 2026 · 5.04 FIP	21	SU	5.04	22.3%	11.2%	4.4%	.319	2.81	24.2%	15.4%	78	-2.23	1.26	157	85
Keylan Killgore L 2027 · 4.24 FIP	22	SW	4.24	20.7%	12.7%	2.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	161	85
Luis Paulino L 2026 · 3.54 FIP	21	SU	3.54	19.1%	10.5%	1.3%	.269	2.75	20.2%	9.5%	50	-0.79	2.57	103	85
Daniel Zamora L 2028 · 3.56 FIP	23	SU	3.56	20.3%	10.8%	1.5%	.294	2.75	24.7%	16.8%	135	-0.81	2.15	310	84
Zach Morris L 2027 · 3.59 FIP	22	SU	3.59	18.5%	10.1%	1.4%	.286	4.35	13.9%	2.4%	84	+0.76	3.35	109	84
Seth Clark L 2028 · 4.22 FIP	23	SU	4.22	22.5%	15.0%	2.0%	.287	5.22	18.4%	0.6%	82	+1.00	4.22	128	84
Abdallah Aris L 2025 · 3.63 FIP	20	SU	3.63	22.4%	11.3%	1.8%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.49	109	84
Vance Tatum L 2026 · 5.04 FIP	21	SU	5.04	17.2%	9.7%	3.9%	.319	5.07	15.6%	2.3%	85	+0.03	4.89	116	84
Develson Aria L 2026 · 4.09 FIP	21	SU	4.09	19.9%	12.2%	2.1%	.346	6.46	16.7%	-11.9%	47	+2.37	4.09	137	83
Jake Higginbotham L 2027 · 5.15 FIP	22	SU	5.15	17.2%	10.6%	3.9%	.256	4.71	18.8%	6.4%	59	-0.44	3.37	323	83
Avery Short L 2026 · 4.75 FIP	21	SW	4.75	20.1%	11.4%	3.5%	.346	4.75	15.0%	6.4%	271	+0.00	4.23	387	83
Thomas Ireland L 2026 · 4.64 FIP	21	SU	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.46	17.0%	8.3%	142	-1.18	2.95	186	83
Yenfri Sosa L 2026 · 4.45 FIP	21	SU	4.45	21.7%	14.3%	2.5%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	128	83
Taylor Hearn L 2026 · 3.97 FIP	21	SU	3.97	26.1%	10.6%	3.2%	.347	4.00	22.3%	11.7%	236	+0.03	3.74	572	82

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+0.4	$2M	+$1.0M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.4	$2M	+$1M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.4	$2M	+$1M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	+0.3	$2M	+$1.0M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$7M	+$4M