Rayven Antonio — OGILVIE

Rayven Antonio P Augusta GreenJackets

Age 20 RHP 6'1" / 190 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.7 · 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA5.07

FIP5.07

K%15.9%

BB%11.7%

K-BB%4.2%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$22M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†3050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$1.0M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.1M
2035	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$7M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Braves	10	2	31	120	22	10	1	20%	3.1	12.5%	10.4%	2.1%	1.4%	1.16	4.15	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Braves	10	2	31	120	22	10	1	20%	3.1	12.5%	10.4%	2.1%	1.4%	1.16	4.15	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Braves	10	2	31	120	22	10	1	20%	3.1	18.3%	8.3%	10.0%	0.8%	1.16	3.07	—
2024	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	6	47	205	31	19	0	38%	2.9	10.7%	11.2%	-0.5%	0.0%	4.05	3.61	—
2024	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	6	47	205	31	19	0	38%	2.9	10.7%	11.2%	-0.5%	0.0%	4.05	3.61	—
2024	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	6	47	205	31	19	0	38%	2.9	15.1%	9.3%	5.9%	0.0%	4.05	2.99	—
2025	19	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	21	20	93	400	95	36	6	95%	4.4	17.6%	10.6%	7.0%	1.5%	4.15	3.80	—
2025	19	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	21	20	93	400	95	36	6	95%	4.4	17.6%	10.6%	7.0%	1.5%	4.15	3.80	—
2025	19	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	21	20	93	400	95	36	6	95%	4.4	23.8%	9.0%	14.8%	1.5%	4.15	3.06	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	20	MLB	ATL	1	1	5	21	3	2	1	100%	5.0	15.9%	11.7%	4.2%	2.6%	5.07	5.07	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	ATL	16	16	88	372	64	41	10	100%	5.5	17.2%	10.9%	6.3%	2.6%	4.90	4.84	+0.1
2028	22	MLB MLE	ATL	17	17	93	391	72	40	10	100%	5.4	18.5%	10.1%	8.4%	2.6%	4.71	4.61	+0.3
2029	23	MLB MLE	ATL	17	17	96	406	79	39	10	100%	5.7	19.4%	9.7%	9.7%	2.6%	4.56	4.47	+0.5
2030	24	MLB MLE	ATL	18	18	98	416	83	39	11	100%	5.5	20.0%	9.4%	10.6%	2.5%	4.45	4.37	+0.6
2031	25	MLB MLE	ATL	17	17	100	421	86	39	11	100%	5.9	20.4%	9.3%	11.1%	2.5%	4.37	4.32	+0.7
2032	26	MLB MLE	ATL	17	17	100	421	87	39	11	100%	5.9	20.6%	9.3%	11.3%	2.5%	4.33	4.30	+0.7
2033	27	MLB MLE	ATL	16	16	98	415	85	39	11	100%	6.1	20.6%	9.3%	11.2%	2.6%	4.33	4.33	+0.7
2034	28	MLB MLE	ATL	16	16	95	402	82	38	11	100%	6.0	20.5%	9.5%	11.0%	2.7%	4.38	4.42	+0.5
2035	29	MLB MLE	ATL	15	15	91	384	78	37	11	100%	6.1	20.2%	9.7%	10.5%	2.8%	4.48	4.55	+0.4
2036	30	MLB MLE	ATL	14	14	86	361	72	36	11	100%	6.1	19.9%	10.0%	9.8%	3.0%	4.63	4.73	+0.2
2037	31	MLB MLE	ATL	13	13	80	337	72	32	11	100%	6.1	21.5%	9.6%	11.9%	3.2%	4.65	4.66	+0.2
2038	32	MLB MLE	ATL	12	12	74	311	65	31	11	100%	6.1	21.0%	10.0%	11.1%	3.5%	4.79	4.89	+0.0
2027	21	MLB CTX	ATL	8	8	43	182	31	20	5	100%	5.4	17.2%	10.9%	6.3%	2.6%	4.90	4.84	+0.0
2028	22	MLB CTX	ATL	12	12	67	283	52	29	7	100%	5.6	18.5%	10.1%	8.4%	2.6%	4.71	4.61	+0.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	ATL	14	14	81	342	66	33	9	100%	5.8	19.4%	9.7%	9.7%	2.6%	4.56	4.47	+0.4
2030	24	MLB CTX	ATL	16	16	88	372	74	35	9	100%	5.5	20.0%	9.4%	10.6%	2.5%	4.45	4.37	+0.5
2031	25	MLB CTX	ATL	16	16	91	384	78	36	10	100%	5.7	20.4%	9.3%	11.1%	2.5%	4.37	4.32	+0.6
2032	26	MLB CTX	ATL	16	16	93	393	81	36	10	100%	5.8	20.6%	9.3%	11.3%	2.5%	4.33	4.30	+0.7
2033	27	MLB CTX	ATL	16	16	93	393	81	37	10	100%	5.8	20.6%	9.3%	11.2%	2.6%	4.33	4.33	+0.6
2034	28	MLB CTX	ATL	15	15	91	384	79	36	10	100%	6.1	20.5%	9.5%	11.0%	2.7%	4.38	4.42	+0.5
2035	29	MLB CTX	ATL	14	14	86	363	73	35	10	100%	6.1	20.2%	9.7%	10.5%	2.8%	4.48	4.55	+0.3
2036	30	MLB CTX	ATL	14	14	81	342	68	34	10	100%	5.8	19.9%	10.0%	9.8%	3.0%	4.63	4.73	+0.2
2037	31	MLB CTX	ATL	13	13	76	321	69	31	10	100%	5.8	21.5%	9.6%	11.9%	3.2%	4.65	4.66	+0.2
2038	32	MLB CTX	ATL	12	12	70	296	62	29	10	100%	5.8	21.0%	10.0%	11.1%	3.5%	4.79	4.89	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		164	164	961	4059	816	392	111	100%	5.9	20.1%	9.7%	10.5%	2.7%	4.52	4.13	+8.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	170	82	23	100%	5.9	20.1%	9.7%	10.5%	2.7%	4.52	4.13	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		47	28	171	725	107	78	8	60%	3.6	14.8%	10.7%	4.0%	1.1%	3.58	3.80	+4.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	33	200	848	125	91	9	60%	3.6	14.8%	10.7%	4.0%	1.1%	3.58	3.80	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Rayven Antonio (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.07	15.9%	11.7%	2.6%	—	4.63	18.4%	8.2%	277	-0.44	—	—	—
Jairo Garcia R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	20	SP-	4.47	16.4%	11.3%	2.4%	.298	5.25	10.1%	-1.9%	96	+0.78	3.88	148	91
Nolberto Henriquez R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	21	SP-	4.99	16.0%	13.4%	2.8%	.305	5.60	11.3%	-3.1%	52	+0.61	4.99	108	88
Christian Fernandez R 2018 · 4.50 FIP	18	SP-	4.50	17.0%	12.6%	2.3%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	324	88
Henry Valencio R 2019 · 4.15 FIP	20	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.293	5.11	11.9%	-11.9%	14	+0.96	3.48	136	88
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.1%	265	+0.44	3.31	408	87
Sal Biasi R 2017 · 4.68 FIP	21	SP-	4.68	16.0%	12.6%	2.5%	.230	5.59	18.5%	5.0%	109	+0.91	4.68	188	87
Luis Cohen R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	20	SP-	4.11	17.2%	11.4%	1.9%	.263	4.98	14.1%	3.9%	247	+0.87	3.00	333	86
Tyler McKay R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	21	SP-	5.32	15.1%	10.2%	4.0%	.262	4.64	13.2%	2.2%	106	-0.68	3.14	275	86
Yondrei Rojas R 2023 · 4.59 FIP	20	SP-	4.59	14.0%	11.2%	2.3%	.312	4.10	20.9%	10.2%	123	-0.49	2.60	240	86
Braden Webb R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	18.0%	12.5%	2.4%	.276	4.78	17.9%	1.8%	172	+0.30	4.48	308	86
Abel Duarte R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	21	SP-	4.84	12.5%	10.3%	2.7%	.306	3.93	13.9%	6.7%	79	-0.91	3.19	127	85
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	85
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	85
Luis Garcia R 2018 · 4.30 FIP	21	SP-	4.30	17.9%	13.4%	1.8%	.295	3.65	27.4%	17.5%	264	-0.65	3.40	535	85
Bryan Polanco R 2022 · 5.18 FIP	20	SP-	5.18	18.2%	14.3%	3.3%	.248	5.58	13.0%	1.2%	243	+0.40	5.18	374	85
Reibyn Corona R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	19	SP-	5.02	17.0%	13.1%	3.1%	.290	5.53	14.5%	1.7%	63	+0.51	4.48	190	84
Joel Díaz R 2022 · 5.45 FIP	18	SP-	5.45	15.3%	11.9%	3.9%	.335	4.86	16.2%	8.2%	174	-0.59	1.98	328	84
Gage Stanifer R 2023 · 4.78 FIP	19	SP-	4.78	16.6%	14.9%	2.2%	.342	4.35	24.2%	7.9%	259	-0.43	2.85	301	84
Dillon Tate R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	22	SP-	4.55	14.0%	10.6%	2.4%	.358	4.09	15.7%	8.6%	261	-0.46	3.02	627	83
Maiker Manuel R 2018 · 4.56 FIP	20	SP-	4.56	15.0%	13.2%	1.9%	.278	4.62	15.3%	11.5%	51	+0.06	4.56	148	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.8	90	19.7%	9.8%	1.06	4.57
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36