Rayven Antonio
P
Augusta GreenJackets
Age 20
RHP
6'1" / 190 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 1.5 · 2031
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 65 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133124vR 115
ERA5.05
FIP5.05
K%15.9%
BB%11.8%
K-BB%4.1%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Braves | 10 | 2 | 31 | 120 | 22 | 10 | 1 | 20% | 3.1 | 12.5% | 10.4% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.16 | 4.38 | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Braves | 10 | 2 | 31 | 120 | 22 | 10 | 1 | 20% | 3.1 | 18.3% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 0.8% | 1.16 | 3.07 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 6 | 47 | 205 | 31 | 19 | 0 | 38% | 2.9 | 10.7% | 11.2% | -0.5% | 0.0% | 4.05 | 3.61 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 6 | 47 | 205 | 31 | 19 | 0 | 38% | 2.9 | 15.1% | 9.3% | 5.9% | 0.0% | 4.05 | 2.99 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 21 | 20 | 93 | 400 | 95 | 36 | 6 | 95% | 4.4 | 17.6% | 10.6% | 7.0% | 1.2% | 4.15 | 3.65 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 21 | 20 | 93 | 400 | 95 | 36 | 6 | 95% | 4.4 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 14.8% | 1.5% | 4.15 | 3.06 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | MLB | ATL | 12 | 12 | 65 | 276 | 44 | 32 | 7 | 100% | 5.4 | 15.9% | 11.8% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 5.05 | 5.05 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | ATL | 12 | 12 | 69 | 290 | 50 | 32 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 17.3% | 11.0% | 6.2% | 2.6% | 4.88 | 4.83 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | ATL | 13 | 13 | 72 | 304 | 57 | 31 | 8 | 100% | 5.5 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 2.5% | 4.70 | 4.60 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | ATL | 13 | 13 | 75 | 315 | 62 | 31 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 19.6% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 2.5% | 4.55 | 4.46 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | ATL | 14 | 14 | 77 | 323 | 66 | 31 | 8 | 100% | 5.5 | 20.3% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 2.5% | 4.44 | 4.36 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | ATL | 13 | 13 | 78 | 328 | 68 | 31 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 2.5% | 4.36 | 4.31 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | ATL | 13 | 13 | 78 | 328 | 68 | 31 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.9% | 9.5% | 11.4% | 2.5% | 4.31 | 4.28 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | ATL | 13 | 13 | 76 | 323 | 67 | 31 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.8% | 9.6% | 11.3% | 2.5% | 4.32 | 4.32 | +0.5 |
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | ATL | 6 | 6 | 34 | 144 | 25 | 16 | 4 | 100% | 5.7 | 17.3% | 11.0% | 6.2% | 2.6% | 4.88 | 4.83 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | ATL | 9 | 9 | 52 | 220 | 41 | 23 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 2.5% | 4.70 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | ATL | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 52 | 26 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 19.6% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 2.5% | 4.55 | 4.46 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | ATL | 12 | 12 | 68 | 287 | 58 | 28 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 20.3% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 2.5% | 4.44 | 4.36 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | ATL | 12 | 12 | 71 | 300 | 62 | 29 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 2.5% | 4.36 | 4.31 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | ATL | 12 | 12 | 72 | 304 | 63 | 29 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.9% | 9.5% | 11.4% | 2.5% | 4.31 | 4.28 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | ATL | 12 | 12 | 73 | 308 | 64 | 30 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.8% | 9.6% | 11.3% | 2.5% | 4.32 | 4.32 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 75 | 75 | 434 | 1831 | 366 | 180 | 46 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.0% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 2.5% | 4.47 | 4.03 | +6.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 844 | 169 | 83 | 21 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.0% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 2.5% | 4.47 | 4.03 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 47 | 28 | 171 | 725 | 107 | 78 | 7 | 60% | 3.6 | 14.8% | 10.7% | 4.0% | 1.0% | 3.58 | 3.76 | +3.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 55 | 33 | 200 | 848 | 125 | 91 | 8 | 60% | 3.6 | 14.8% | 10.7% | 4.0% | 1.0% | 3.58 | 3.76 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Rayven Antonio (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.05 | 15.9% | 11.8% | 2.6% | — | 4.62 | 18.6% | 8.2% | 215 | -0.43 | — | — | — |
| Jairo Garcia R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.47 | 16.4% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .298 | 5.25 | 10.1% | -1.9% | 96 | +0.78 | 3.88 | 148 | 92 |
| Nolberto Henriquez R 2027 · 4.75 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.75 | 16.0% | 13.4% | 2.4% | .305 | 5.43 | 11.3% | -3.1% | 52 | +0.68 | 4.75 | 108 | 89 |
| Christian Fernandez R 2024 · 4.50 FIP | 18 | SP- | 4.50 | 17.0% | 12.6% | 2.3% | .274 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 324 | 88 |
| Henry Valencio R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.15 | 16.4% | 10.6% | 2.0% | .293 | 5.11 | 11.9% | -11.9% | 14 | +0.96 | 3.48 | 136 | 88 |
| Sal Biasi R 2027 · 4.68 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.68 | 16.0% | 12.6% | 2.5% | .230 | 5.55 | 18.5% | 5.0% | 109 | +0.87 | 4.68 | 188 | 87 |
| Nick Garcia R 2028 · 4.31 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.31 | 18.3% | 12.3% | 2.2% | .274 | 4.88 | 17.3% | 5.9% | 265 | +0.57 | 4.27 | 384 | 87 |
| Luis Cohen R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.14 | 17.2% | 11.4% | 1.9% | .263 | 4.99 | 13.7% | 3.4% | 225 | +0.85 | 3.00 | 310 | 87 |
| Tanner Hall R 2028 · 4.56 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.56 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 3.0% | .295 | 5.39 | 10.1% | -4.6% | 72 | +0.83 | 4.56 | 137 | 86 |
| Kolton Curtis R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.2% | 14.4% | 2.6% | .236 | 4.29 | 19.9% | 2.5% | 66 | -0.61 | 4.29 | 148 | 86 |
| Abel Duarte R 2027 · 4.84 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.84 | 12.5% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .306 | 3.93 | 13.9% | 6.7% | 79 | -0.91 | 3.19 | 127 | 85 |
| Luis Garcia R 2027 · 4.33 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.33 | 17.9% | 13.4% | 1.9% | .295 | 3.59 | 27.4% | 17.5% | 264 | -0.74 | 3.28 | 535 | 85 |
| Braden Webb R 2028 · 4.32 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.32 | 18.0% | 12.5% | 2.1% | .276 | 4.76 | 17.9% | 1.8% | 172 | +0.44 | 4.32 | 308 | 85 |
| Luis Hernandez R 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.86 | 16.7% | 14.0% | 2.5% | .311 | 6.15 | 21.4% | 4.1% | 64 | +1.29 | 4.16 | 109 | 85 |
| Johnathan Harmon R 2028 · 4.22 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.22 | 17.8% | 10.2% | 2.4% | .293 | 5.23 | 15.4% | 6.7% | 157 | +1.01 | 3.46 | 246 | 85 |
| Yondrei Rojas R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.36 | 14.0% | 11.2% | 1.9% | .312 | 4.32 | 20.8% | 9.4% | 106 | -0.04 | 2.72 | 223 | 85 |
| Twine Palmer R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.10 | 17.3% | 14.3% | 1.2% | .282 | 3.70 | 19.4% | 5.8% | 66 | -0.40 | 3.70 | 128 | 85 |
| Jeremy Lee R 2028 · 4.06 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.06 | 16.8% | 11.5% | 1.7% | .318 | 5.28 | 11.2% | -0.5% | 46 | +1.22 | 4.06 | 125 | 85 |
| Reibyn Corona R 2025 · 4.94 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.94 | 17.0% | 13.1% | 2.9% | .290 | 5.61 | 14.5% | 1.7% | 63 | +0.67 | 4.38 | 190 | 84 |
| Sam Stuhr R 2028 · 4.71 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.71 | 15.5% | 12.6% | 2.4% | .347 | 5.74 | 18.4% | 13.3% | 39 | +1.03 | 4.71 | 135 | 84 |
| Bryan Polanco R 2026 · 5.33 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.33 | 18.2% | 14.3% | 3.5% | .248 | 5.50 | 13.0% | 1.2% | 243 | +0.17 | 5.24 | 347 | 84 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 74 | 19.4% | 10.1% | 0.98 | 4.56 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Buck Farmer ('24) | 10 | 50 | 21.6% | 10.5% | 1.23 | 4.59 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Joe Kelly ('24) | 9 | 56 | 24.6% | 10.3% | 0.81 | 4.40 |