Rayven Antonio

P Augusta GreenJackets

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 190 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 1.1 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#627ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	17	ROKATL	10	2	31	1.16	3.07	18.3%	8.3%	—	K 12.5% · BB 10.4% · FIP 4.15
2024	18	MIX2 levels	16	6	47	4.05	2.99	15.1%	9.3%	—	K 10.7% · BB 11.2% · FIP 3.61
2025	19	AATL	21	20	93	4.15	3.06	23.8%	9.0%	—	K 17.6% · BB 10.6% · FIP 3.80
2026	20	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	21	MLBATL	—	—	0	5.09	5.09	16.8%	11.7%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBATL	6	6	34	4.88	4.80	18.3%	10.6%	0.2
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBATL	8	8	50	4.71	4.63	19.3%	10.0%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control45Command40

CompsNick Garcia (age 22) · Nolberto Henriquez (age 21) · Tanner Hall (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.09

FIP5.09

K%16.8%

BB%11.7%

K-BB%5.1%

Proj IP65

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$29M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2035	Arb-1	$1M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.4M
2036	Arb-2	$1M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.2M
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$6M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Braves	10	2	31	120	22	10	1	20%	3.1	12.5%	10.4%	2.1%	1.4%	1.16	4.15	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Braves	10	2	31	120	22	10	1	20%	3.1	18.3%	8.3%	10.0%	0.8%	1.16	3.07	—
2024	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	6	47	205	31	19	0	38%	2.9	10.7%	11.2%	-0.5%	0.0%	4.05	3.61	—
2024	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	6	47	205	31	19	0	38%	2.9	10.7%	11.2%	-0.5%	0.0%	4.05	3.61	—
2024	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	6	47	205	31	19	0	38%	2.9	15.1%	9.3%	5.9%	0.0%	4.05	2.99	—
2025	19	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	21	20	93	400	95	36	6	95%	4.4	17.6%	10.6%	7.0%	1.5%	4.15	3.80	—
2025	19	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	21	20	93	400	95	36	6	95%	4.4	17.6%	10.6%	7.0%	1.5%	4.15	3.80	—
2025	19	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	21	20	93	400	95	36	6	95%	4.4	23.8%	9.0%	14.8%	1.5%	4.15	3.06	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	ATL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	16.8%	11.7%	5.1%	2.8%	5.09	5.09	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	ATL	11	11	69	292	53	31	8	100%	6.3	18.3%	10.6%	7.7%	2.8%	4.88	4.80	+0.5
2029	23	MLB MLE	ATL	11	11	69	292	56	29	8	100%	6.3	19.3%	10.0%	9.3%	2.7%	4.71	4.63	+0.6
2030	24	MLB MLE	ATL	11	11	69	292	58	28	8	100%	6.3	20.0%	9.7%	10.3%	2.7%	4.58	4.52	+0.7
2031	25	MLB MLE	ATL	10	10	62	261	53	25	7	100%	6.2	20.4%	9.5%	10.9%	2.7%	4.50	4.45	+0.7
2032	26	MLB MLE	ATL	10	10	62	262	54	25	7	100%	6.2	20.6%	9.5%	11.1%	2.7%	4.46	4.43	+0.7
2033	27	MLB MLE	ATL	10	10	60	255	53	24	7	100%	6.0	20.6%	9.6%	11.1%	2.8%	4.47	4.47	+0.7
2034	28	MLB MLE	ATL	9	9	58	244	50	24	7	100%	6.4	20.5%	9.7%	10.8%	2.9%	4.52	4.55	+0.6
2035	29	MLB MLE	ATL	9	9	54	227	46	23	7	100%	6.0	20.2%	9.9%	10.3%	3.0%	4.62	4.68	+0.4
2036	30	MLB MLE	ATL	8	8	49	206	41	21	7	100%	6.1	19.9%	10.2%	9.7%	3.2%	4.77	4.86	+0.3
2037	31	MLB MLE	ATL	8	8	47	198	43	19	7	100%	5.9	21.5%	9.8%	11.7%	3.4%	4.78	4.79	+0.3
2038	32	MLB MLE	ATL	7	7	41	175	37	18	6	100%	5.9	21.1%	10.2%	10.9%	3.7%	4.92	5.02	+0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	ATL	6	6	34	144	26	15	4	100%	5.7	18.3%	10.6%	7.7%	2.8%	4.88	4.80	+0.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	ATL	8	8	50	211	41	21	6	100%	6.2	19.3%	10.0%	9.3%	2.7%	4.71	4.63	+0.4
2030	24	MLB CTX	ATL	9	9	57	241	48	23	7	100%	6.3	20.0%	9.7%	10.3%	2.7%	4.58	4.52	+0.6
2031	25	MLB CTX	ATL	9	9	55	232	47	22	6	100%	6.1	20.4%	9.5%	10.9%	2.7%	4.50	4.45	+0.6
2032	26	MLB CTX	ATL	9	9	57	241	50	23	7	100%	6.3	20.6%	9.5%	11.1%	2.7%	4.46	4.43	+0.6
2033	27	MLB CTX	ATL	9	9	56	236	49	23	7	100%	6.2	20.6%	9.6%	11.1%	2.8%	4.47	4.47	+0.6
2034	28	MLB CTX	ATL	9	9	54	228	47	22	7	100%	6.0	20.5%	9.7%	10.8%	2.9%	4.52	4.55	+0.5
2035	29	MLB CTX	ATL	8	8	51	215	44	21	7	100%	6.4	20.2%	9.9%	10.3%	3.0%	4.62	4.68	+0.4
2036	30	MLB CTX	ATL	8	8	46	194	39	20	6	100%	5.8	19.9%	10.2%	9.7%	3.2%	4.77	4.86	+0.3
2037	31	MLB CTX	ATL	7	7	45	190	41	19	7	100%	6.4	21.5%	9.8%	11.7%	3.4%	4.78	4.79	+0.3
2038	32	MLB CTX	ATL	6	6	39	165	35	17	6	100%	6.5	21.1%	10.2%	10.9%	3.7%	4.92	5.02	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		89	89	544	2298	466	226	68	100%	6.1	20.3%	9.8%	10.4%	2.9%	4.63	4.25	+7.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	171	83	25	100%	6.1	20.3%	9.8%	10.4%	2.9%	4.63	4.25	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		47	28	171	725	107	78	8	60%	3.6	14.8%	10.7%	4.0%	1.1%	3.58	3.80	+5.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	33	200	848	125	91	9	60%	3.6	14.8%	10.7%	4.0%	1.1%	3.58	3.80	+1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAugusta GreenJackets · 93 IPFIP 3.06 → 3.80 (+0.74)K% 23.8% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.75%	—	×0.740	17.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.00%	—	×1.180	10.62%
HR / BF /BF	1.50%	÷1.281	×1.300	1.52%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 156).

Result: FIP 3.06 → 3.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKFCL Braves · 27 IPFIP 2.62 → 3.22 (+0.60)K% 14.9% → 10.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.91%	—	×0.680	10.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.14%	—	×1.250	7.68%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.266	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 153).

Result: FIP 2.62 → 3.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAugusta GreenJackets · 20 IPFIP 3.47 → 4.11 (+0.64)K% 15.4% → 11.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.38%	—	×0.740	11.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.19%	—	×1.180	15.56%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.010	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.47 → 4.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKDSL Braves · 31 IPFIP 3.06 → 4.15 (+1.09)K% 18.3% → 12.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.33%	—	×0.680	12.47%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×1.250	10.42%
HR / BF /BF	0.83%	÷0.816	×1.400	1.43%

Result: FIP 3.06 → 4.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Rayven Antonio (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.09	16.8%	11.7%	2.8%	—	4.65	19.2%	9.1%	207	-0.44	—	—	—
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.2%	265	+0.44	3.20	411	92
Nolberto Henriquez R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	21	SP-	4.99	16.0%	13.4%	2.8%	.305	5.60	11.3%	-3.1%	52	+0.61	4.99	108	90
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	90
Luis Garcia R 2018 · 4.30 FIP	21	SP-	4.30	17.9%	13.4%	1.8%	.295	3.65	27.4%	17.5%	264	-0.65	3.40	535	90
Braden Webb R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	18.0%	12.5%	2.4%	.276	4.78	17.9%	1.8%	172	+0.30	4.48	308	89
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	89
Ryan Long R 2022 · 4.33 FIP	22	SW	4.33	17.1%	11.6%	2.2%	.263	4.69	16.6%	7.3%	292	+0.36	4.20	433	89
Henry Valencio R 2019 · 4.15 FIP	20	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.293	5.11	11.9%	-11.9%	14	+0.96	3.48	136	88
Tyler McKay R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	21	SP-	5.32	15.1%	10.2%	4.0%	.262	4.64	13.2%	2.2%	106	-0.68	3.10	275	87
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.2%	6.4%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	86
Devereaux Harrison R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	17.6%	11.3%	3.6%	.252	4.82	16.7%	4.6%	295	-0.22	4.72	389	86
Shane Davis R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	21	SP-	5.21	17.3%	9.8%	4.2%	.313	4.19	20.9%	6.7%	55	-1.02	4.19	129	86
Sal Biasi R 2017 · 4.68 FIP	21	SP-	4.68	16.0%	12.6%	2.5%	.230	5.59	18.5%	5.0%	109	+0.91	4.68	188	86
Abel Brito R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	21	SP-	4.79	15.7%	12.6%	2.6%	.310	5.66	13.2%	-8.6%	70	+0.87	4.13	147	86
David Rodriguez R 2024 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP-	4.50	13.5%	11.7%	1.9%	.316	3.85	16.9%	9.9%	125	-0.65	3.80	184	86
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.71	21.6%	11.0%	188	-0.66	3.16	266	85
Kolton Curtis R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	20	SP-	4.91	17.2%	14.4%	2.6%	.236	4.41	19.9%	2.5%	66	-0.50	4.41	148	85
Kyle Davies R 2005 · 4.27 FIP	21	SP-	4.27	15.4%	10.9%	2.0%	.311	4.79	15.5%	5.6%	312	+0.52	3.58	921	85
Ramon Santos R 2016 · 5.00 FIP	21	SP-	5.00	12.7%	10.6%	3.0%	.323	4.18	15.6%	5.5%	199	-0.82	3.74	355	84
Dillon Tate R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	22	SP-	4.55	14.0%	10.6%	2.4%	.358	4.09	15.7%	8.6%	261	-0.46	3.02	630	84

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	59	19.8%	10.0%	1.13	4.69
Dan Miceli ('06)	3.5	64	20.6%	10.1%	1.19	4.48
Russ Springer ('10)	4.3	66	20.9%	9.4%	1.27	4.52
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.6	51	21.6%	10.5%	1.24	4.71
Rich Rodriguez ('90-'03, 3 WAR*)	3.2	64	17.3%*	9.3%*	1.05*	4.00*
Jerry Don Gleaton ('79-'92, 2 WAR*)	2.2	64	19.4%*	10.2%*	1.05*	4.44*
Mike Munoz ('89-'00, 1 WAR*)	1.8	46	17.6%*	10.2%*	0.93*	4.46*