Rayven Antonio — OGILVIE

Rayven Antonio P Augusta GreenJackets

+0.6 WAR

Age 20 RHP 6'1" / 190 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 3.1 · 2032

ERA4.43

FIP4.43

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%20.7%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%10.8%

IP93

trajectory · 10 yrs

3.1peak

2032

K†5060

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Braves	10	2	31	120	22	10	1	12.5%	10.4%	1.7%	1.16	4.30	+0.2
2024	18	A	Augusta GreenJackets	16	6	47	205	31	19	0	10.7%	11.2%	0.0%	4.05	3.61	+0.7
2025	19	A	Augusta GreenJackets	21	20	93	400	95	36	6	17.6%	10.6%	1.5%	4.15	3.77	+1.6
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	MLB	ATL	17	17	93	394	81	39	10	20.7%	9.9%	2.6%	4.43	4.43	+0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	21	MLB	ATL	18	18	98	414	88	38	11	21.2%	9.3%	2.6%	4.34	4.29	+1.1
2028	22	MLB	ATL	23	23	125	527	117	46	14	22.2%	8.6%	2.6%	4.20	4.11	+1.7
2029	23	MLB	ATL	27	27	150	632	145	52	16	22.9%	8.3%	2.5%	4.08	3.99	+2.2
2030	24	MLB	ATL	31	31	169	715	168	57	18	23.4%	8.0%	2.5%	3.98	3.90	+2.7
2031	25	MLB	ATL	33	33	183	774	184	61	19	23.8%	7.9%	2.5%	3.90	3.85	+3.0
2032	26	MLB	ATL	33	33	183	774	186	61	19	24.0%	7.9%	2.5%	3.86	3.83	+3.1
2033	27	MLB	ATL	33	33	182	768	185	61	19	24.0%	7.9%	2.5%	3.85	3.84	+3.0
2034	28	MLB	ATL	33	33	179	757	182	60	19	24.0%	7.9%	2.6%	3.86	3.86	+2.9
2035	29	MLB	ATL	32	32	175	740	177	59	19	23.9%	8.0%	2.6%	3.89	3.91	+2.8
2036	30	MLB	ATL	31	31	170	718	170	58	19	23.7%	8.1%	2.7%	3.94	3.97	+2.6
2037	31	MLB	ATL	30	30	164	692	162	57	19	23.4%	8.2%	2.7%	4.00	4.04	+2.3
2038	32	MLB	ATL	29	29	157	665	154	56	19	23.2%	8.4%	2.8%	4.08	4.13	+2.1
2039	33	MLB	ATL	27	27	150	635	145	54	18	22.9%	8.6%	2.9%	4.17	4.23	+1.8
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			47	28	171	725	107	78	8	14.8%	10.7%	1.1%	3.58	3.82	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—			55	33	200	848	125	91	9	14.8%	10.7%	1.1%	3.58	3.82	+3.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Rayven Antonio (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.43	20.7%	9.9%	2.6%	—	4.11	22.2%	13.6%	372	-0.32	—	—	—
Michael Forret R 2026 · 3.99 FIP	20	SP-	3.99	21.8%	11.8%	2.2%	.302	2.67	25.1%	16.6%	74	-1.32	2.67	174	93
Micah Ottenbreit R 2027 · 4.31 FIP	21	SP-	4.31	17.9%	11.8%	2.2%	.305	3.04	14.7%	10.3%	24	-1.27	3.04	118	92
Victor Lizarraga R 2026 · 4.19 FIP	20	SP-	4.19	20.3%	11.4%	2.5%	.278	5.17	16.8%	2.6%	91	+0.98	3.82	406	91
Jose Almonte R 2026 · 4.11 FIP	20	SP-	4.11	17.0%	9.1%	2.4%	.293	4.01	20.3%	8.0%	139	-0.10	4.01	279	90
Johnathan Harmon R 2028 · 4.29 FIP	22	SP-	4.29	17.8%	10.2%	2.5%	.293	3.81	16.1%	8.1%	69	-0.48	3.51	157	90
Shelby Lackey R 2028 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	18.2%	10.0%	2.9%	.323	3.96	20.6%	5.7%	65	-0.49	2.91	175	89
C.J. Culpepper R 2027 · 3.54 FIP	21	SP-	3.54	18.7%	10.1%	1.4%	.291	4.01	18.5%	7.2%	113	+0.47	3.33	199	89
Brett Wichrowski R 2027 · 4.09 FIP	21	SP-	4.09	17.0%	11.2%	1.8%	.267	4.54	14.5%	3.5%	113	+0.45	4.06	202	89
Josh Bostick R 2028 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP-	4.71	19.3%	11.2%	3.3%	.304	5.41	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.70	4.71	226	89
Josh Grosz R 2027 · 4.83 FIP	21	SP-	4.83	19.2%	11.7%	3.4%	.271	4.75	19.4%	7.6%	125	-0.08	4.75	243	89
Nick Sinacola R 2028 · 4.43 FIP	22	SP-	4.43	19.3%	10.4%	3.0%	.335	4.06	18.2%	10.0%	254	-0.37	3.55	357	89
Will Sanders R 2028 · 4.90 FIP	22	SP-	4.90	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.297	4.22	20.2%	11.5%	139	-0.68	4.01	231	88
Nick Davila R 2028 · 3.89 FIP	22	SP-	3.89	18.0%	9.3%	2.1%	.297	4.07	17.3%	11.0%	196	+0.18	3.46	341	88
Sam Carlson R 2028 · 4.29 FIP	22	SP-	4.29	17.9%	11.2%	2.3%	.334	3.73	19.9%	9.1%	153	-0.56	3.20	313	88
Miguel Almonte R 2028 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	18.0%	10.1%	1.8%	.300	4.42	19.4%	7.9%	143	+0.57	3.05	247	88
Trevor Martin R 2028 · 4.24 FIP	22	SP-	4.24	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.28	20.2%	11.6%	172	+0.04	4.19	282	88
Ty Cummings R 2028 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	19.0%	10.5%	2.7%	.329	5.00	14.2%	5.9%	116	+0.70	4.30	233	87
Braden Webb R 2028 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	18.0%	12.5%	2.4%	.276	4.79	17.9%	1.8%	172	+0.34	4.45	308	87
Jordan Foley R 2028 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	19.6%	12.1%	1.6%	.294	4.02	22.8%	9.3%	162	+0.17	3.21	305	87
Jamie Callahan R 2026 · 3.60 FIP	20	SP-	3.60	17.5%	9.8%	1.3%	.338	3.74	19.4%	6.3%	105	+0.14	3.58	194	87

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+3.0	$28M	+$27M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+3.1	$30M	+$29M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+3.0	$30M	+$29M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$5M	+2.9	$29M	+$24M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$8M	+2.8	$29M	+$21M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$16M		$146M	+$130M