Rayven Antonio P Augusta GreenJackets
Age 20 RHP 6'1" / 190 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.5 · 2031
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 65 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133124vR 115
ERA5.05
FIP5.05
K%15.9%
BB%11.8%
K-BB%4.1%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP
K: -3.4 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)-3KBB: -2.4 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)-2BBCONTACT: -0.6 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)-1CONTACTSTAM: +3.5 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+4STAMTotal WAR: -0.30 (65 IP)-0.3WAR
0.00.51.00.40.60.80.91.01.00.90.80.6+$45M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
projected WAR paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Scouting Grades
STUF4040
CTRL4545
CMD4040
K†3050
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2031
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2036
First FA Year   2037
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M+1.0$5M+$5M
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M+1.0$5M+$5M
2033Pre-Arb$1.0M+0.9$2M+$2M
2034Arb-1$3M+0.8$2M+$0.5M
2035Arb-2$5M+0.6$1M+$0.0M (cut)
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $6M $16M +$12M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
202317ROKDSL Braves102311202210120%3.112.5%10.4%2.1%1.8%1.164.38
202317ROKDSL Braves102311202210120%3.118.3%8.3%10.0%0.8%1.163.07
202418MIX2 levels166472053119038%2.910.7%11.2%-0.5%0.0%4.053.61
202418MIX2 levels166472053119038%2.915.1%9.3%5.9%0.0%4.052.99
202519AAugusta GreenJackets2120934009536695%4.417.6%10.6%7.0%1.2%4.153.65
202519AAugusta GreenJackets2120934009536695%4.423.8%9.0%14.8%1.5%4.153.06
▸ 2026 Season
202620MLBATL12126527644327100%5.415.9%11.8%4.1%2.6%5.055.05-0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202721MLBATL12126929050327100%5.717.3%11.0%6.2%2.6%4.884.83-0.1
202822MLBATL13137230457318100%5.518.7%10.3%8.3%2.5%4.704.60+0.2
202923MLBATL13137531562318100%5.719.6%9.9%9.7%2.5%4.554.46+0.4
203024MLBATL14147732366318100%5.520.3%9.7%10.6%2.5%4.444.36+0.5
203125MLBATL13137832868318100%6.020.7%9.5%11.1%2.5%4.364.31+0.6
203226MLBATL13137832868318100%6.020.9%9.5%11.4%2.5%4.314.28+0.6
203327MLBATL13137632367318100%5.920.8%9.6%11.3%2.5%4.324.32+0.5
202721MLBATL663414425164100%5.717.3%11.0%6.2%2.6%4.884.83-0.1
202822MLBATL995222041236100%5.818.7%10.3%8.3%2.5%4.704.60-0.0
202923MLBATL11116326652267100%5.719.6%9.9%9.7%2.5%4.554.46+0.1
203024MLBATL12126828758287100%5.720.3%9.7%10.6%2.5%4.444.36+0.3
203125MLBATL12127130062297100%5.920.7%9.5%11.1%2.5%4.364.31+0.4
203226MLBATL12127230463298100%6.020.9%9.5%11.4%2.5%4.314.28+0.4
203327MLBATL12127330864308100%6.120.8%9.6%11.3%2.5%4.324.32+0.4
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career7575434183136618046100%5.820.0%9.8%10.2%2.5%4.474.03+6.9
/ 200 IP35352008441698321100%5.820.0%9.8%10.2%2.5%4.474.03+3.2
Career472817172510778760%3.614.8%10.7%4.0%1.0%3.583.76+3.3
/ 200 IP553320084812591860%3.614.8%10.7%4.0%1.0%3.583.76+3.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Rayven Antonio (OGILVIE) 5.05 15.9%11.8%2.6% 4.62 18.6%8.2%215 -0.43
Jairo Garcia R 2026 · 4.47 FIP 20 SP- 4.47 16.4%11.3%2.4%.298 5.25 10.1%-1.9%96 +0.78 3.88 148 92
Nolberto Henriquez R 2027 · 4.75 FIP 21 SP- 4.75 16.0%13.4%2.4%.305 5.43 11.3%-3.1%52 +0.68 4.75 108 89
Christian Fernandez R 2024 · 4.50 FIP 18 SP- 4.50 17.0%12.6%2.3%.274 4.06 324 88
Henry Valencio R 2026 · 4.15 FIP 20 SP- 4.15 16.4%10.6%2.0%.293 5.11 11.9%-11.9%14 +0.96 3.48 136 88
Sal Biasi R 2027 · 4.68 FIP 21 SP- 4.68 16.0%12.6%2.5%.230 5.55 18.5%5.0%109 +0.87 4.68 188 87
Nick Garcia R 2028 · 4.31 FIP 22 SP- 4.31 18.3%12.3%2.2%.274 4.88 17.3%5.9%265 +0.57 4.27 384 87
Luis Cohen R 2026 · 4.14 FIP 20 SP- 4.14 17.2%11.4%1.9%.263 4.99 13.7%3.4%225 +0.85 3.00 310 87
Tanner Hall R 2028 · 4.56 FIP 22 SP- 4.56 18.8%11.2%3.0%.295 5.39 10.1%-4.6%72 +0.83 4.56 137 86
Kolton Curtis R 2026 · 4.90 FIP 20 SP- 4.90 17.2%14.4%2.6%.236 4.29 19.9%2.5%66 -0.61 4.29 148 86
Abel Duarte R 2027 · 4.84 FIP 21 SP- 4.84 12.5%10.3%2.7%.306 3.93 13.9%6.7%79 -0.91 3.19 127 85
Luis Garcia R 2027 · 4.33 FIP 21 SP- 4.33 17.9%13.4%1.9%.295 3.59 27.4%17.5%264 -0.74 3.28 535 85
Braden Webb R 2028 · 4.32 FIP 22 SP- 4.32 18.0%12.5%2.1%.276 4.76 17.9%1.8%172 +0.44 4.32 308 85
Luis Hernandez R 2027 · 4.86 FIP 21 SP 4.86 16.7%14.0%2.5%.311 6.15 21.4%4.1%64 +1.29 4.16 109 85
Johnathan Harmon R 2028 · 4.22 FIP 22 SP- 4.22 17.8%10.2%2.4%.293 5.23 15.4%6.7%157 +1.01 3.46 246 85
Yondrei Rojas R 2026 · 4.36 FIP 20 SP- 4.36 14.0%11.2%1.9%.312 4.32 20.8%9.4%106 -0.04 2.72 223 85
Twine Palmer R 2026 · 4.10 FIP 20 SP- 4.10 17.3%14.3%1.2%.282 3.70 19.4%5.8%66 -0.40 3.70 128 85
Jeremy Lee R 2028 · 4.06 FIP 22 SP- 4.06 16.8%11.5%1.7%.318 5.28 11.2%-0.5%46 +1.22 4.06 125 85
Reibyn Corona R 2025 · 4.94 FIP 19 SP- 4.94 17.0%13.1%2.9%.290 5.61 14.5%1.7%63 +0.67 4.38 190 84
Sam Stuhr R 2028 · 4.71 FIP 22 SP- 4.71 15.5%12.6%2.4%.347 5.74 18.4%13.3%39 +1.03 4.71 135 84
Bryan Polanco R 2026 · 5.33 FIP 20 SP- 5.33 18.2%14.3%3.5%.248 5.50 13.0%1.2%243 +0.17 5.24 347 84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION87419.4%10.1%0.984.56
Bryan Shaw ('23)86421.4%9.4%1.124.19
Shane Greene ('21)75621.4%8.5%1.164.67
Jacob Barnes ('24)74222.1%9.6%1.214.58
Buck Farmer ('24)105021.6%10.5%1.234.59
Miguel Castro ('23)75920.8%12.0%1.043.99
Joe Kelly ('24)95624.6%10.3%0.814.40