Eduardo Robles — OGILVIE

Eduardo Robles P DSL Phillies White

Age 21 RHP 5'9" / 176 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.7 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.91

FIP4.91

K%18.8%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%7.4%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$12M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$0.8M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	10	0	19	81	12	10	0	0%	1.9	10.1%	15.4%	-5.4%	0.0%	2.84	4.20	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	10	0	19	81	12	10	0	0%	1.9	10.1%	15.4%	-5.4%	0.0%	2.84	4.20	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies Red	10	0	19	81	12	10	0	0%	1.9	14.8%	12.3%	2.5%	0.0%	2.84	3.42	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	11	9	48	205	41	16	1	82%	4.4	13.6%	9.8%	3.8%	0.8%	2.61	3.65	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	11	9	48	205	41	16	1	82%	4.4	13.6%	9.8%	3.8%	0.8%	2.61	3.65	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies White	11	9	48	205	41	16	1	82%	4.4	20.0%	7.8%	12.2%	0.5%	2.61	2.67	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	11	10	40	188	45	19	2	91%	3.6	16.3%	12.6%	3.6%	1.8%	6.35	4.29	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	11	10	40	188	45	19	2	91%	3.6	16.3%	12.6%	3.6%	1.8%	6.35	4.29	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies White	11	10	40	188	45	19	2	91%	3.6	23.9%	10.1%	13.8%	1.1%	6.35	2.92	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	21	MLB	PHI	1	1	2	8	2	1	0	100%	2.0	18.8%	11.4%	7.4%	2.9%	4.91	4.91	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	PHI	9	9	46	193	40	20	5	100%	5.1	20.5%	10.3%	10.2%	2.8%	4.71	4.61	+0.2
2028	23	MLB MLE	PHI	9	9	47	200	43	19	6	100%	5.3	21.5%	9.6%	11.9%	2.8%	4.52	4.42	+0.3
2029	24	MLB MLE	PHI	9	9	49	205	45	19	6	100%	5.4	22.1%	9.2%	13.0%	2.8%	4.38	4.29	+0.3
2030	25	MLB MLE	PHI	8	8	49	208	47	19	6	100%	6.2	22.6%	8.9%	13.6%	2.8%	4.29	4.22	+0.4
2031	26	MLB MLE	PHI	8	8	49	208	47	18	6	100%	6.2	22.8%	8.9%	13.9%	2.8%	4.24	4.20	+0.4
2032	27	MLB MLE	PHI	8	8	48	205	47	18	6	100%	6.1	22.7%	9.0%	13.8%	2.8%	4.24	4.24	+0.4
2027	22	MLB CTX	PHI	4	4	22	93	19	10	3	100%	5.5	20.5%	10.3%	10.2%	3.0%	4.82	4.72	+0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	PHI	7	7	35	148	32	14	4	100%	5.0	21.5%	9.6%	11.9%	3.0%	4.63	4.53	+0.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	PHI	7	7	40	169	37	16	5	100%	5.7	22.1%	9.2%	13.0%	3.0%	4.49	4.40	+0.3
2030	25	MLB CTX	PHI	7	7	43	182	41	16	5	100%	6.1	22.6%	8.9%	13.6%	3.0%	4.40	4.33	+0.3
2031	26	MLB CTX	PHI	8	8	45	190	43	17	6	100%	5.6	22.8%	8.9%	13.9%	3.0%	4.35	4.31	+0.4
2032	27	MLB CTX	PHI	8	8	45	190	43	17	6	100%	5.6	22.7%	9.0%	13.8%	3.0%	4.35	4.35	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		40	40	231	974	216	90	29	100%	5.8	22.2%	9.2%	13.0%	3.0%	4.47	4.03	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	187	78	25	100%	5.7	22.2%	9.2%	13.0%	3.0%	4.47	4.03	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		32	19	107	474	67	56	5	59%	3.3	14.1%	11.9%	2.2%	1.1%	4.04	4.00	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	36	200	886	125	105	9	59%	3.3	14.1%	11.9%	2.2%	1.1%	4.04	4.00	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Eduardo Robles (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.91	18.8%	11.4%	2.9%	—	4.44	21.4%	11.7%	142	-0.47	—	—	—
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	87
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	86
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	85
Abel Brito R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	21	SP-	4.79	15.7%	12.6%	2.6%	.310	5.66	13.2%	-8.6%	70	+0.87	4.13	147	85
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	85
Luis Cohen R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	20	SP-	4.11	17.2%	11.4%	1.9%	.263	4.98	14.1%	3.9%	247	+0.87	3.00	333	84
Henry Valencio R 2019 · 4.15 FIP	20	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.293	5.11	11.9%	-11.9%	14	+0.96	3.48	136	84
Michael Cederoth R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP-	4.10	16.8%	13.0%	1.4%	.292	4.95	21.6%	2.4%	83	+0.85	4.10	118	83
Mac Sceroler R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	17.6%	11.8%	2.5%	.318	4.34	18.4%	10.3%	200	-0.12	3.95	275	82
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.1%	265	+0.44	3.31	408	82
Jonathan Petit R 2022 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.3%	9.1%	3.2%	.272	5.11	15.6%	2.4%	113	+0.47	2.70	189	82
Juan Nuñez R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SP	4.49	19.6%	13.2%	2.5%	.300	4.42	22.8%	8.3%	148	-0.07	2.88	245	82
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	82
Florencio Serrano R 2021 · 3.84 FIP	21	SP-	3.84	19.3%	8.5%	2.4%	.264	4.80	14.1%	3.4%	117	+0.96	3.84	206	82
Nolberto Henriquez R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	21	SP-	4.99	16.0%	13.4%	2.8%	.305	5.60	11.3%	-3.1%	52	+0.61	4.99	108	82
Miguel Rondon R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	21	SP-	5.27	15.5%	11.4%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	2.62	179	82
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	81
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	81
Daniel Martinez R 2019 · 4.17 FIP	21	SP-	4.17	15.2%	10.4%	1.9%	.234	7.18	14.3%	1.0%	93	+3.01	3.41	242	81
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	45	21.8%	9.5%	1.08	4.43
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59