Jorge Luna — OGILVIE

Jorge Luna P FCL Yankees

Age 21 RHP 6'0" / 165 lbs ROK peak 0.4 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 24 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.91

FIP4.91

K%21.5%

BB%12.7%

K-BB%8.8%

ROS IP24

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 24 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	11	11	38	172	31	27	3	100%	3.4	12.3%	19.6%	-7.4%	1.4%	6.45	5.33	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	11	11	38	172	31	27	3	100%	3.4	12.3%	19.6%	-7.4%	1.4%	6.45	5.33	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Yankees	11	11	38	172	31	27	3	100%	3.4	18.0%	15.7%	2.3%	1.7%	6.45	4.64	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	12	10	42	181	51	18	3	83%	3.5	19.2%	12.4%	6.7%	2.4%	3.64	4.39	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	12	10	42	181	51	18	3	83%	3.5	19.2%	12.4%	6.7%	2.4%	3.64	4.39	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Yankees	12	10	42	181	51	18	3	83%	3.5	28.2%	9.9%	18.2%	1.7%	3.64	2.89	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	15	0	16	76	11	12	0	0%	1.0	9.8%	19.7%	-9.9%	0.0%	5.17	4.77	—
YTD	21	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	15	0	16	76	11	12	0	0%	1.0	9.8%	19.7%	-9.9%	0.0%	5.17	4.77	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	NYY	15	0	16	76	11	12	0	0%	1.0	14.5%	15.8%	-1.3%	0.0%	5.17	3.88	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	NYY	38	0	40	168	38	19	5	0%	1.0	22.6%	11.3%	11.3%	2.9%	4.70	4.60	-0.0
2027	22	MLB CTX	NYY	19	0	20	84	19	10	2	0%	1.1	22.6%	11.3%	11.3%	2.9%	4.70	4.60	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		19	0	20	82	19	9	2	0%	1.0	22.6%	11.3%	11.3%	2.9%	4.70	4.22	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	195	92	20	0%	1.1	22.6%	11.3%	11.3%	2.9%	4.70	4.22	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		38	21	95	429	63	71	7	55%	2.5	14.7%	16.6%	-1.9%	1.6%	5.00	4.83	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		80	44	200	900	133	149	14	55%	2.5	14.7%	16.6%	-1.9%	1.6%	5.00	4.83	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jorge Luna (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.91	21.5%	12.7%	3.0%	—	4.60	22.6%	11.3%	40	-0.31	—	—	—
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	88
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	82
Tanner Cooper R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	21	SW	4.71	17.1%	14.1%	2.3%	.338	5.15	14.4%	6.7%	121	+0.44	4.51	148	81
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.19	27.2%	16.7%	182	-1.93	1.90	247	80
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	80
Kobe Robinson R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	23.2%	14.3%	2.8%	.296	3.44	18.8%	4.9%	84	-1.05	2.98	107	79
Trayson Kubo R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	21	SW	5.01	19.8%	15.6%	2.9%	.450	4.82	17.7%	1.4%	66	-0.19	4.48	107	79
Todd Peterson R 2021 · 5.11 FIP	23	SW	5.11	18.4%	10.3%	4.1%	.279	4.83	15.0%	4.3%	124	-0.28	4.45	175	79
Luis Aguilar R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	19	SW	4.45	17.6%	10.3%	2.8%	.356	4.27	16.7%	6.7%	111	-0.18	3.51	146	79
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.76	23.1%	12.3%	156	-0.79	3.23	254	79
William Kempner R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	22	SU	4.02	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.22	28.3%	14.7%	112	-0.80	3.17	173	79
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	78
Miguel Alfonseca R 2021 · 4.19 FIP	21	SP-	4.19	18.3%	12.1%	2.0%	.400	5.36	14.9%	-0.9%	92	+1.17	4.19	123	78
Brandon Komar R 2019 · 4.77 FIP	20	SW	4.77	17.7%	11.6%	3.1%	.327	4.93	16.7%	5.7%	198	+0.16	3.01	538	78
Wander Guante R 2021 · 4.74 FIP	21	SW	4.74	21.3%	13.1%	3.3%	.354	5.30	14.7%	3.1%	255	+0.56	3.83	372	78
Ivan Oviedo R 2023 · 5.64 FIP	20	SW	5.64	21.2%	14.0%	4.7%	.353	4.01	20.1%	3.6%	33	-1.63	3.75	174	77
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	77
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	77
Luis F. Castillo R 2016 · 4.51 FIP	21	SU	4.51	16.7%	10.5%	2.7%	.337	3.50	19.7%	12.3%	96	-1.01	2.95	254	77
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	32	22.2%	11.8%	1.14	4.78
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19