Adriander Mejía

C FCL Orioles
Age 20 R/R 6'0" / 165 lbs ROK HR +9% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038
Overview
ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039
OGV OFP35OGV rank#856ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202417ROKDSL Orioles O…198.291/.426/.3922657—.183/.292/.237
202518ROKBAL122.268/.398/.3511351—.192/.288/.250
202619A/ROKBAL203.290/.356/.4214362—.230/.287/.326
2027PROJMLE20MLBBAL313.209/.272/.30045620.0
2028PROJ34% MLB21MLBBAL58.217/.282/.32211680.0
2029PROJ48% MLB22MLBBAL132.221/.287/.33422730.1
Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A
Z-Con%83
Whiff%69
K%52
wRC+36
wOBA30
BB%23
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%
CompsSammy Hernandez (age 20) · Gilberto Vizcarra (age 20) · Christian Cerda (age 20)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 118 proj PA
wRC+†62
AVG/OBP/SLG.207 / .270 / .297
PA118
HR1
K%25
BB%7
ISO91
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -5.3 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-5BATRUN: -0.1 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)-0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +2.1 runs (Positional adjustment)+2POSREP: +2.6 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: +0.00+0.0WAR
0.00.51.00.10.30.40.50.50.50.40.20.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$17M ctrl surplus
Tools · ContractCON 36 / POW 40
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT36
scouting grade only
POWER40
scouting grade only
EYE48
scouting grade only
SPEED51
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2033
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2038
First FA Year   2039
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.5$1M+$0.8M
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+0.5$1M+$0.7M
2035Pre-Arb$1.0M+0.4$0.9M+$0.4M
2036Arb-1$1M+0.2$0.4M+$0.0M (cut)
2037Arb-2$1M———
2038Arb-3$0.6M———
Totals $3M $3M +$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202316 ROKDSL Orioles Orange — 178155 43901 19272 12 277364355718 77328 1511 327 31 — — — — — —
202417 ROKDSL Orioles Orange — 198158 46622 33154 60 291426392818 101306 817 372 57 — — — — — —
202518 ROKFCL Orioles — 12297 26501 17274 30 268398351749 82347 2214 339 51 — — — — — —
202619 ADelmarva Shorebirds — 8980 20600 8211 10 250326325651 75339 249 300 50 — — — — — —
202619 ROKFCL Orioles — 114103 33604 6244 20 320381495876 175382 215 386 71 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202316 ROK MLEDSL Orioles Orange — 178162 30601 12352 12 185250241491 56218 207 214 31 — — — — — —
202417 ROK MLEDSL Orioles Orange — 198169 31411 22194 60 183292237529 53198 1011 252 57 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEFCL Orioles — 122104 20301 10404 30 192288250538 58270 338 244 51 — — — — — —
202619 A MLEDelmarva Shorebirds — 8982 18500 6291 10 220281280561 61322 337 242 50 — — — — — —
202619 ROK MLEFCL Orioles — 114105 25403 4354 20 238292362654 124304 314 273 71 — — — — — —
202316 ROK MLEDSL Orioles Orange — 178162 30601 12352 12 185250241491 56228 207 214 31 — — — — — —
202316 ROK RAWDSL Orioles Orange — 178155 43901 19272 12 277364355718 77328 1511 327 31 — — — — — —
202417 ROK MLEDSL Orioles Orange — 198169 31411 22194 60 183292237529 53197 1011 252 57 — — — — — —
202417 ROK RAWDSL Orioles Orange — 198158 46622 33154 60 291426392818 101306 817 372 57 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEFCL Orioles — 122104 20301 10404 30 192288250538 58288 338 244 51 — — — — — —
202518 ROK RAWFCL Orioles — 12297 26501 17274 30 268398351749 82347 2214 339 51 — — — — — —
202619 ROK MLE2 teams — 203188 42903 9635 30 223277319596 96317 314 259 62 — — — — — —
202619 ROK RAW2 teams — 203183 531204 14455 30 290356421777 131363 227 348 62 — — — — — —
202316 ROK MLEDSL Orioles Orange — 178162 30601 12352 12 185250241491 56218 207 214 31 — — — — — —
202417 ROK MLEDSL Orioles Orange — 198170 31411 22194 60 182292235528 53198 1011 252 57 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEFCL Orioles — 122107 20301 10404 30 187288243531 56270 338 244 51 — — — — — —
202619 ROK MLE2 teams — 203187 42903 9635 30 225277321598 96312 314 259 62 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202417 ROK MLEDSL Orioles Orange — 198170 31411 22194 60 182292235528 53198 1011 252 57 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEFCL Orioles — 122107 20301 10404 30 187288243531 56270 338 244 51 — — — — — —
202619 ROK MLE2 teams — 203187 42903 9635 30 225277321598 96312 314 259 62 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202720 MLB MLEBAL 0% 313285 601124 21784 51 209272300572 91271 257 260 62 -14 +1 +0 +6 +7 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202821 MLB MLEBAL 34% 169153 33613 12422 31 214279315594 101273 257 269 68 -6 +0 +0 +3 +4 0.0
202922 MLB MLEBAL 48% 273248 541015 19664 51 218283327611 109275 247 276 73 -9 +1 +0 +5 +6 0.3
203023 MLB MLEBAL 54% 361327 721327 26875 72 221287336623 115276 247 281 76 -10 +1 +0 +6 +8 0.5
203124 MLB MLEBAL 55% 418380 841628 30995 82 223290342632 119278 247 285 79 -11 +1 +0 +7 +9 0.7
203225 MLB MLEBAL 56% 445403 901729 331056 92 225292346638 122279 247 287 80 -10 +1 +0 +8 +10 0.8
203326 MLB MLEBAL 56% 445403 901729 331056 82 224292346638 122278 247 287 80 -10 +1 +0 +8 +10 0.8
203427 MLB MLEBAL 60% 445404 901729 331065 82 223291343634 120278 247 285 79 -11 +1 +0 +8 +10 0.8
203528 MLB MLEBAL 62% 445404 901729 331075 72 221289339627 117277 247 283 77 -12 +1 -1 +8 +10 0.6
203629 MLB MLEBAL 63% 445404 881628 331085 72 219286332618 113275 247 279 75 -13 +1 -1 +8 +10 0.4
203730 MLB MLEBAL 63% 445405 871628 321105 63 216282324606 109273 257 274 72 -15 +0 -2 +8 +10 0.1
203831 MLB MLEBAL 65% 412375 801527 291035 43 212277315592 103270 257 268 68 -16 -0 -3 +7 +9 -0.3
202821 MLB CTXBAL 34% 5853 11201 4141 10 217282322604 105277 247 273 68 -2 +0 +0 +1 +1 0.0
202922 MLB CTXBAL 48% 132120 26512 9322 21 221287334621 113279 247 280 73 -4 +0 +0 +2 +3 0.1
203023 MLB CTXBAL 54% 196177 41814 14473 41 224290343634 119280 247 285 76 -6 +0 +0 +4 +4 0.3
203124 MLB CTXBAL 55% 232210 48915 17553 41 227293350643 123282 247 289 79 -6 +0 +0 +4 +5 0.4
203225 MLB CTXBAL 56% 249226 511015 18593 51 228295354650 126283 247 292 80 -6 +1 +0 +4 +5 0.5
203326 MLB CTXBAL 56% 250227 511015 18593 51 228295354649 126282 247 291 80 -6 +1 +0 +4 +5 0.5
203427 MLB CTXBAL 60% 265240 541016 20633 51 227294351645 124282 248 290 79 -7 +1 +0 +5 +6 0.5
203528 MLB CTXBAL 62% 274249 561116 20663 51 225292346638 121281 247 287 77 -7 +1 -0 +5 +6 0.4
203629 MLB CTXBAL 63% 279254 571116 20683 41 223289340629 117279 247 283 75 -8 +0 -1 +5 +6 0.2
203730 MLB CTXBAL 63% 282257 551015 20703 42 219285332617 112277 257 278 72 -10 +0 -1 +5 +6 0.0
203831 MLB CTXBAL 65% 268244 531015 19673 32 215280321602 106274 257 272 68 -10 -0 -2 +5 +6 -0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 24852257 503961050 17960030 4212 223289341629 118280 247 285 72 -72 +4 -4 +44 +54 2.6
/ 162G— A+C — 650590 13225313 471578 113 224290342632 119281 247 285 72 -19 +1 -1 +12 +14 0.7
Career— MLE — 51224637 10031862289 374122469 8725 216285323608 107273 247 275 72 -129 +6 -7 +79 +96 4.5
/ 162G— MLE — 650588 12824311 471559 113 218286325611 107275 247 275 72 -19 +1 -1 +12 +14 0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKFCL Orioles · 114 PAwOBA .378 → .273 (−106)K% 21.1% → 30.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.05%÷1.000×1.440——30.32%
BB% (unintentional) /PA5.26%÷1.000×0.620—×0.9953.25%
HBP% /PA3.51%—×0.720—×0.9952.51%
Singles /BIP29.11%÷1.000×0.820×1.014×0.99524.08%
Doubles /BIP7.59%÷1.000×0.720×1.014×0.9955.52%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.720×1.014×0.9950.00%
Home runs /BIP5.06%÷1.000×0.780—×0.9953.93%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.

Result: wOBA .378 → .273; ISO .175 → .122; BABIP .382 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 89 PAwOBA .292 → .242 (−50)K% 23.6% → 32.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.60%÷1.000×1.360——32.09%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.99%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0306.39%
HBP% /PA1.12%—×0.780—×1.0300.90%
Singles /BIP23.73%÷1.000×0.920×1.032×1.03023.21%
Doubles /BIP10.17%÷1.000×0.830×1.032×1.0308.97%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.910×1.032×1.0300.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0300.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.032.

Result: wOBA .292 → .242; ISO .075 → .061; BABIP .339 → .322. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Orioles · 122 PAwOBA .340 → .244 (−96)K% 22.1% → 32.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.13%÷0.980×1.440——32.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.93%÷1.020×0.620—×1.0088.53%
HBP% /PA3.28%—×0.720—×1.0082.38%
Singles /BIP28.57%÷0.997×0.820×0.972×1.00823.01%
Doubles /BIP7.14%÷1.033×0.720×0.972×1.0084.88%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.720×0.972×1.0080.00%
Home runs /BIP1.43%÷1.000×0.780—×1.0081.12%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 99, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 96, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.

Result: wOBA .340 → .244; ISO .082 → .059; BABIP .347 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Orioles Orange · 198 PAwOBA .369 → .252 (−117)K% 7.6% → 9.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA7.58%÷0.981×1.220——9.42%
BB% (unintentional) /PA16.67%÷1.041×0.700—×1.00811.29%
HBP% /PA2.02%—×0.700—×1.0081.42%
Singles /BIP25.17%÷1.082×0.680×1.030×1.00816.42%
Doubles /BIP4.20%÷0.924×0.600×1.030×1.0082.83%
Triples /BIP1.40%÷1.150×0.600×1.030×1.0080.76%
Home runs /BIP1.40%÷0.992×0.470—×1.0080.67%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 116, 2B 85, 3B 130, K 96, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.

Result: wOBA .369 → .252; ISO .101 → .062; BABIP .306 → .198. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 DSLDSL Orioles Orange · 178 PAwOBA .319 → .214 (−105)K% 15.2% → 19.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.17%÷0.941×1.220——19.66%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.11%÷1.049×0.700—×1.0226.90%
HBP% /PA1.12%—×0.700—×1.0220.80%
Singles /BIP25.78%÷1.051×0.680×1.023×1.02217.45%
Doubles /BIP7.03%÷0.991×0.600×1.023×1.0224.45%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.018×0.600×1.023×1.0220.00%
Home runs /BIP0.78%÷0.847×0.470—×1.0220.44%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 110, 2B 98, 3B 104, K 88, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.

Result: wOBA .319 → .214; ISO .077 → .048; BABIP .328 → .218. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).