Leonel Espinoza
SS South Bend Cubs| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A/ROKCHC | 284 | .262/.382/.422 | 5 | 10 | 71 | — | .202/.304/.324 |
| 2025 | 22 | A+/A/INTL2 orgs | 517 | .268/.327/.350 | 6 | 33 | 50 | — | .217/.260/.281 |
| 2026 | 23 | A+CHC | 207 | .223/.302/.348 | 3 | 10 | 46 | — | .190/.254/.286 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 24 | MLBCHC | 257 | .204/.259/.288 | 3 | 7 | 54 | -0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 25 | MLBCHC | 41 | .210/.266/.305 | 1 | 1 | 59 | -0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ44% MLB | 26 | MLBCHC | 85 | .212/.269/.314 | 1 | 2 | 63 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 30
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Cubs Blue | — | 204 | 173 | 39 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 21 | 43 | 9 | 11 | 3 | 225 | 340 | 405 | 745 | 179 | 252 | 21 | 10 | 336 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 52 | 47 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 128 | 196 | 149 | 345 | 21 | 188 | 29 | 4 | 167 | -27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | ACL Cubs | — | 148 | 129 | 47 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 26 | 4 | 11 | 5 | 364 | 446 | 512 | 958 | 147 | 446 | 18 | 10 | 427 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 257 | 215 | 56 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 30 | 60 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 260 | 379 | 428 | 807 | 167 | 340 | 23 | 12 | 363 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | ROK | ACL Cubs | — | 27 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 273 | 407 | 364 | 771 | 91 | 353 | 19 | 15 | 358 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | — | 89 | 82 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 244 | 295 | 256 | 552 | 12 | 282 | 13 | 7 | 255 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 408 | 370 | 100 | 15 | 2 | 6 | 31 | 90 | 4 | 21 | 8 | 270 | 333 | 370 | 704 | 100 | 339 | 22 | 8 | 317 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | INTL | Leones del Caracas | — | 20 | 19 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 316 | 350 | 368 | 718 | 53 | 429 | 25 | 5 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | — | 207 | 184 | 41 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 48 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 223 | 302 | 348 | 650 | 125 | 284 | 23 | 8 | 293 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Cubs Blue | — | 204 | 179 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 53 | 9 | 11 | 3 | 123 | 227 | 184 | 411 | 61 | 153 | 26 | 7 | 189 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 52 | 48 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 104 | 157 | 125 | 282 | 21 | 169 | 38 | 2 | 129 | -27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 148 | 135 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 37 | 4 | 11 | 5 | 252 | 318 | 333 | 651 | 81 | 348 | 25 | 6 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 257 | 224 | 45 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 83 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 201 | 301 | 326 | 627 | 125 | 294 | 32 | 8 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 27 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 217 | 333 | 304 | 638 | 87 | 263 | 26 | 11 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 89 | 84 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 214 | 250 | 226 | 476 | 12 | 247 | 17 | 4 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 408 | 382 | 83 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 128 | 4 | 21 | 8 | 217 | 262 | 293 | 555 | 76 | 303 | 31 | 5 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 207 | 189 | 36 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 61 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 190 | 254 | 286 | 539 | 95 | 257 | 29 | 6 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Cubs Blue | — | 204 | 179 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 53 | 9 | 11 | 3 | 123 | 227 | 184 | 411 | 61 | 160 | 26 | 7 | 189 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Cubs Blue | — | 204 | 173 | 39 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 21 | 43 | 9 | 11 | 3 | 225 | 340 | 405 | 745 | 179 | 252 | 21 | 10 | 336 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 200 | 182 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 58 | 6 | 13 | 6 | 214 | 281 | 280 | 562 | 66 | 309 | 29 | 6 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 200 | 176 | 53 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 41 | 6 | 13 | 6 | 301 | 382 | 415 | 797 | 114 | 383 | 20 | 8 | 359 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 284 | 248 | 49 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 23 | 90 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 198 | 297 | 310 | 607 | 113 | 292 | 32 | 8 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 284 | 237 | 62 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 34 | 65 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 262 | 382 | 422 | 804 | 160 | 341 | 23 | 12 | 363 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 517 | 485 | 104 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 148 | 4 | 33 | 10 | 214 | 257 | 276 | 534 | 62 | 295 | 29 | 5 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 517 | 471 | 126 | 17 | 2 | 6 | 38 | 107 | 4 | 33 | 10 | 268 | 327 | 350 | 678 | 83 | 331 | 21 | 7 | 306 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 207 | 189 | 36 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 61 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 190 | 254 | 286 | 539 | 95 | 268 | 29 | 6 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ RAW | South Bend Cubs | — | 207 | 184 | 41 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 48 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 223 | 302 | 348 | 650 | 125 | 284 | 23 | 8 | 293 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Cubs Blue | — | 204 | 178 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 53 | 9 | 11 | 3 | 124 | 227 | 185 | 412 | 62 | 153 | 26 | 7 | 189 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 200 | 181 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 58 | 6 | 13 | 6 | 215 | 281 | 282 | 563 | 66 | 301 | 29 | 6 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 284 | 247 | 49 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 23 | 90 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 198 | 297 | 312 | 609 | 113 | 291 | 32 | 8 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 517 | 484 | 104 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 148 | 4 | 33 | 10 | 215 | 257 | 277 | 534 | 62 | 293 | 29 | 5 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 207 | 189 | 36 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 61 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 190 | 254 | 286 | 539 | 95 | 257 | 29 | 6 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 284 | 247 | 49 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 23 | 90 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 198 | 297 | 312 | 609 | 113 | 291 | 32 | 8 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 517 | 484 | 104 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 148 | 4 | 33 | 10 | 215 | 257 | 277 | 534 | 62 | 293 | 29 | 5 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 207 | 189 | 36 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 61 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 190 | 254 | 286 | 539 | 95 | 257 | 29 | 6 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB MLE | CHC | 0% | 257 | 238 | 48 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 71 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 204 | 259 | 288 | 547 | 84 | 275 | 28 | 5 | 248 | 54 | -14 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +6 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 25 | MLB MLE | CHC | 30% | 136 | 125 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 37 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 208 | 264 | 302 | 566 | 94 | 276 | 27 | 6 | 256 | 59 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +3 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB MLE | CHC | 44% | 192 | 177 | 37 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 52 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 210 | 268 | 311 | 578 | 100 | 277 | 27 | 6 | 261 | 63 | -8 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +4 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB CTX | CHC | 30% | 41 | 38 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 210 | 266 | 305 | 571 | 96 | 279 | 27 | 5 | 258 | 59 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB CTX | CHC | 44% | 85 | 79 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 212 | 269 | 314 | 583 | 102 | 280 | 27 | 6 | 263 | 63 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 126 | 117 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 34 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 214 | 270 | 316 | 586 | 103 | 284 | 27 | 6 | 261 | 51 | -6 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +3 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 604 | 129 | 21 | 5 | 10 | 36 | 175 | 10 | 15 | 0 | 214 | 269 | 315 | 584 | 101 | 284 | 27 | 6 | 261 | 51 | -30 | +3 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -0.6 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1837 | 1676 | 332 | 53 | 12 | 20 | 109 | 526 | 40 | 89 | 27 | 198 | 264 | 280 | 543 | 82 | 274 | 29 | 6 | 244 | 51 | -20 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +9 | -0.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 593 | 117 | 19 | 4 | 7 | 39 | 186 | 14 | 31 | 10 | 197 | 263 | 278 | 541 | 81 | 273 | 29 | 6 | 244 | 51 | -31 | +2 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -0.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+South Bend Cubs · 207 PAwOBA .287 → .236 (−51)K% 23.2% → 29.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.19% | ÷1.000 | ×1.270 | — | — | 29.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.21% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 5.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.93% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 1.52% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.12% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.028 | ×0.998 | 18.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.35% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×1.028 | ×0.998 | 6.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.47% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×1.028 | ×0.998 | 1.28% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.21% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 1.76% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.028.
Result: wOBA .287 → .236; ISO .125 → .099; BABIP .284 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 408 PAwOBA .310 → .243 (−66)K% 22.1% → 31.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.06% | ÷0.956 | ×1.360 | — | — | 31.38% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.35% | ÷1.106 | ×0.690 | — | — | 4.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.98% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.76% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.50% | ÷0.990 | ×0.920 | ×0.979 | — | 25.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.36% | ÷0.968 | ×0.830 | ×0.979 | — | 4.50% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.71% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.979 | — | 0.55% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.14% | ÷0.925 | ×0.800 | — | — | 1.85% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 98, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 91, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.
Result: wOBA .310 → .243; ISO .100 → .078; BABIP .339 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+South Bend Cubs · 89 PAwOBA .251 → .212 (−39)K% 13.5% → 16.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.48% | ÷1.051 | ×1.270 | — | — | 16.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.74% | ÷1.042 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 4.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.14% | ÷1.021 | ×0.920 | ×0.968 | ×1.012 | 23.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.43% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×0.968 | ×1.012 | 1.13% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×0.968 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.106 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 104, 2B 100, 3B 80, K 110, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.
Result: wOBA .251 → .212; ISO .012 → .010; BABIP .282 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 257 PAwOBA .354 → .276 (−78)K% 23.3% → 32.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.35% | ÷0.985 | ×1.360 | — | — | 32.23% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.67% | ÷1.007 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 8.12% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.28% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 3.39% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.58% | ÷0.997 | ×0.920 | ×0.957 | ×1.015 | 20.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.10% | ÷0.986 | ×0.830 | ×0.957 | ×1.015 | 5.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.23% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.957 | ×1.015 | 2.48% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.23% | ÷0.908 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 2.88% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 99, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 97, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.957.
Result: wOBA .354 → .276; ISO .167 → .131; BABIP .340 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKACL Cubs · 27 PAwOBA .350 → .241 (−109)K% 18.5% → 27.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.52% | ÷0.989 | ×1.440 | — | — | 26.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.81% | ÷0.947 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 9.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.70% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 2.63% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.41% | ÷1.047 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.985 | 22.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.903 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 5.88% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 3.63% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.935 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 109, 2B 81, 3B 130, K 98, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .350 → .241; ISO .091 → .054; BABIP .353 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL Cubs · 148 PAwOBA .416 → .299 (−117)K% 17.6% → 25.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.57% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 25.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 6.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.70% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 1.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.01% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×0.990 | ×0.995 | 26.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.74% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.990 | ×0.995 | 6.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.94% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.990 | ×0.995 | 1.38% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.94% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 1.51% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .416 → .299; ISO .147 → .103; BABIP .446 → .348. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 52 PAwOBA .163 → .129 (−33)K% 28.8% → 38.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.85% | ÷1.011 | ×1.360 | — | — | 38.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.85% | ÷0.967 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 2.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.85% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 3.09% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.62% | ÷1.046 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.030 | 14.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.12% | ÷0.975 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.030 | 2.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.957 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 109, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 102, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .163 → .129; ISO .021 → .017; BABIP .188 → .169. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 DSLDSL Cubs Blue · 204 PAwOBA .329 → .189 (−140)K% 21.1% → 25.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.08% | ÷0.997 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.29% | ÷1.015 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 7.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.41% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 3.11% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.23% | ÷0.993 | ×0.680 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 12.61% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.85% | ÷1.093 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 2.02% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.77% | ÷0.939 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 0.47% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.15% | ÷1.528 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 1.91% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 206, 1B 99, 2B 119, 3B 88, K 99, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .329 → .189; ISO .179 → .065; BABIP .252 → .153. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .