Leonel Espinoza — OGILVIE

Leonel EspinozaSS South Bend Cubs

Age 23 R/R 5'10" / 165 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION156 act + 164 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†50

AVG/OBP/SLG.204 / .258 / .296

PA164

HR2

SB6

K%30

BB%5

BABIP284

ISO92

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER30

scouting grade only

EYE30

scouting grade only

SPEED55

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$1M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	DSL Cubs Blue	—	204	181	26	3	1	3	13	62	9	11	3	144	236	221	457	77	197	30	6	197	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK	DSL Cubs Blue	—	204	173	39	5	1	8	21	43	9	11	3	225	340	405	745	179	252	21	10	336	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK	2 teams	—	200	182	39	7	1	1	11	58	6	13	6	214	281	280	562	66	309	29	6	254	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK	2 teams	—	200	176	53	10	2	2	17	41	6	13	6	301	382	415	797	114	383	20	8	359	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A	2 teams	—	284	249	48	8	3	5	22	95	12	10	4	193	290	309	599	116	289	33	8	267	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A	2 teams	—	284	237	62	11	6	5	34	65	12	10	4	262	382	422	804	160	341	23	12	363	136	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A	3 teams	—	517	489	104	13	1	6	20	161	4	33	10	213	250	280	530	67	301	31	4	234	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A	3 teams	—	517	471	126	17	2	6	38	107	4	33	10	268	327	350	678	83	331	21	7	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	A+	CHC	—	156	141	28	7	2	2	9	49	4	8	1	199	266	319	585	121	286	31	6	254	53	-8	+1	+0	+2	+4	-0.1
YTD	23	A+	CHC	—	156	137	33	9	2	3	13	36	4	8	1	241	325	401	726	161	303	23	8	322	105	+1	+1	+0	+2	+4	0.8
ROS	23	A+	CHC	0%	164	152	31	6	1	2	8	49	3	6	1	204	258	296	554	92	280	30	5	251	50	-9	+1	+0	+2	+5	-0.2
ROS	23	MLB	CHC	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						281	0	0	238	41	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	23	A+	CHC	—	157	142	28	7	2	2	9	49	4	8	1	197	265	317	581	120	283	31	6	254	53	-8	+1	+0	+2	+4	-0.1
TOT	23	A+	CHC	—	320	293	59	13	3	4	17	98	7	14	2	201	262	307	569	106	285	31	5	252	51	-18	+2	+0	+3	+9	-0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	CHC	30%	544	499	103	19	3	9	31	157	9	15	3	206	265	311	576	104	279	29	6	261	58	-26	+2	+0	+6	+15	-0.3
2028	25	MLB	CHC	44%	559	512	108	20	3	11	33	158	9	15	3	211	271	326	597	115	280	28	6	269	64	-23	+2	+0	+6	+16	0.1
2029	26	MLB	CHC	51%	564	515	110	20	3	12	35	157	9	15	3	214	275	334	609	120	281	28	6	273	67	-21	+2	+0	+6	+16	0.3
2030	27	MLB	CHC	52%	563	513	110	20	3	12	36	157	9	14	3	214	278	335	613	121	281	28	6	274	68	-20	+2	+0	+6	+16	0.3
2031	28	MLB	CHC	53%	558	508	108	20	3	11	36	156	9	13	3	213	277	329	605	116	281	28	6	274	68	-20	+1	-1	+6	+16	0.2
2027	24	MLB	CHC	30%	165	152	32	6	1	3	9	48	3	5	1	211	268	322	591	112	280	29	5	251	50	-9	+1	+0	+2	+5	-0.2
2028	25	MLB	CHC	44%	247	226	48	9	1	5	15	70	4	7	2	212	273	327	601	115	281	28	6	259	56	-12	+1	+0	+3	+7	-0.2
2029	26	MLB	CHC	51%	286	261	56	10	2	6	18	80	5	8	2	215	278	337	615	123	282	28	6	263	59	-13	+1	+0	+3	+8	-0.1
2030	27	MLB	CHC	52%	295	269	58	11	2	6	19	82	5	8	2	216	280	338	618	123	282	28	6	264	60	-13	+1	+0	+3	+8	-0.1
2031	28	MLB	CHC	53%	297	271	59	11	2	6	19	83	5	7	2	218	281	339	621	122	282	28	6	263	60	-13	+1	-0	+3	+8	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1291	1180	253	47	8	26	80	363	22	35	9	214	277	334	611	119	285	28	6	261	58	-61	+3	-0	+14	+37	-0.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	594	128	24	4	13	40	183	11	18	5	215	278	335	613	120	287	28	6	261	58	-31	+2	-0	+7	+18	-0.4
Career	—			—	4157	3800	787	136	22	72	245	1210	79	145	39	207	269	311	581	104	282	29	6	261	58	-199	+13	-1	+45	+118	-2.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	594	122	21	3	11	38	189	12	23	6	205	267	306	573	101	280	29	6	261	58	-31	+2	-0	+7	+18	-0.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	DSL Cubs Blue	—	204	173	39	5	1	8	21	43	9	11	3	225	340	405	745	179	252	21	10	336	115	+4	+1	—	—	+6	1.1
2023	20	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	52	47	6	1	0	0	2	15	2	2	1	128	196	149	345	21	188	29	4	167	-14	-7	+0	—	—	+1	-0.5
2023	20	ROK	ACL Cubs	—	148	129	47	9	2	2	15	26	4	11	5	364	446	512	958	147	446	18	10	427	185	+14	+0	—	—	+4	1.9
2024	21	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	257	215	56	11	5	5	30	60	11	10	4	260	379	428	807	167	340	23	12	363	136	+10	+0	—	—	+7	1.8
2024	21	ROK	ACL Cubs	—	27	22	6	0	1	0	4	5	1	0	0	273	407	364	771	91	353	19	15	358	132	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2025	22	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	89	82	20	1	0	0	6	12	0	10	0	244	295	256	552	12	282	13	7	255	53	-5	+2	—	—	+3	-0.0
2025	22	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	408	370	100	15	2	6	31	90	4	21	8	270	333	370	704	100	339	22	8	317	101	+0	+1	—	—	+12	1.3
2025	22	INTL	Leones del Caracas	—	20	19	6	1	0	0	1	5	0	2	2	316	350	368	718	53	429	25	5	325	107	+0	-0	—	—	+1	0.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#3Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	6	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
	/162	664	8	8	244	299	357	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#4Everth Cabreralast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,059 PA	6	2,059	12	136	247	316	328	+22	-1	5.1	5.1
	/162	664	4	44	247	316	328	+7.1	-0.5	1.6	pk7: 5
#5J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	1,293	26	34	213	272	330	+14	+6	0.4	0.4
	/162	664	13	17	213	272	330	+7.1	+3.1	0.2	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Leonel Espinoza (OGILVIE)	23	45	30	55	30	201/262/307	106	285	4	14	31%	5%	51	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Johnni Turbo 2012 · A	23	45→48	37→40	55	35	213/251/289	76	312	4	16	32%	4%	45	-2.1	233/265/320	87	296	6	17	23%	3%	59	-1.1	240/277/304	64	298	3	18	20%	4%	56	-0.4
✕Cutter Dykstra 2012 · A	23	43→53	37→40	51→55	39	205/257/273	69	295	5	16	31%	6%	44	-2.1	226/290/308	82	312	6	16	27%	7%	67	-0.5	232/301/316	84	315	6	16	26%	8%	72	-0.2
✕Andrew Sohn 2016 · A	23	45	38→30	52→55	39	215/265/291	76	281	6	18	25%	4%	52	-1.6	202/273/281	79	280	7	15	28%	7%	54	-1.4	165/258/219	53	235	5	18	29%	9%	30	-1.4
✕Ray-Patrick Didder 2018 · A	23	42→47	38→45	52→60	38	198/274/276	78	294	5	18	32%	6%	54	-1.4	185/267/263	78	303	6	23	38%	7%	48	-1.9	198/285/310	113	286	12	28	32%	8%	64	-0.5
✕Blake Rambusch 2023 · A	23	47	37→30	52→65	42	219/287/293	74	318	4	14	30%	7%	63	-0.9	230/317/295	65	313	3	29	25%	9%	76	+0.1	252/330/304	52	316	1	49	19%	9%	79	+0.1
✕Francisco Martinez 2014 · AA	23	47→51	37→40	52→55	39	223/263/293	71	307	4	18	28%	5%	51	-1.7	214/245/297	83	296	6	18	29%	4%	44	-2.1	209/234/294	85	285	6	20	28%	3%	35	-2.0
✕Stephen Alemais 2018 · A	23	44→52	40	47→50	41	213/261/306	93	283	7	12	27%	6%	54	-1.4	230/283/302	72	297	4	14	22%	7%	63	-0.9	241/301/303	61	304	2	16	19%	8%	69	-0.3
✕Cody Koback 2013 · A	23	49→47	38→30	51→50	35	228/277/302	74	328	6	14	31%	4%	60	-1.0	220/271/281	61	293	3	12	24%	5%	52	-1.6	214/268/254	39	279	0	12	22%	5%	40	-1.9
✕Delvin Pérez 2022 · AA	23	45→46	37→30	53→55	36	215/258/279	64	308	5	20	31%	4%	46	-2.0	204/263/290	86	306	8	25	34%	7%	52	-1.6	187/250/258	71	272	7	29	32%	7%	35	-1.6
✕Niko Decolati 2021 · A	23	42→47	41→40	50→55	35	204/259/300	97	291	9	13	32%	4%	53	-1.5	209/279/294	85	312	7	19	33%	7%	60	-1.0	201/283/279	78	300	6	22	32%	8%	56	-0.7
✕Alfredo Rodriguez 2017 · A	23	42→52	36→30	55→45	42	200/265/269	69	274	3	14	27%	6%	47	-1.9	218/259/272	54	282	3	10	22%	4%	43	-2.2	230/268/284	54	294	2	9	22%	4%	48	-1.2
✕Jordan Sprinkle 2023 · A	22	43	38→30	53→65	39	207/262/284	76	294	6	16	30%	6%	50	-1.8	189/252/255	66	280	5	26	32%	7%	38	-2.6	193/265/244	51	275	3	50	28%	8%	39	-1.4
✕Osvaldo Abreu 2017 · A	23	45→46	39→40	49→50	41	216/268/305	89	293	6	14	27%	6%	57	-1.2	203/251/296	93	287	8	7	30%	5%	48	-1.9	170/226/262	91	261	8	6	36%	6%	26	-1.7
✕Najee Gaskins 2022 · A	24	45	39→30	51→50	35	209/260/293	84	323	6	12	36%	5%	51	-1.7	213/282/290	77	366	4	9	40%	6%	60	-1.0	209/292/269	60	384	2	10	41%	7%	59	-0.5
✕Trey Lipscomb 2023 · A	23	49→47	40→45	57→50	37	235/271/329	94	325	7	21	29%	4%	64	-0.8	228/268/332	104	291	10	14	24%	5%	64	-0.8	225/270/345	119	281	13	16	24%	5%	65	-0.5
✕Errol Robinson 2018 · AA	23	46→47	40	55	40	222/268/314	92	303	7	19	28%	6%	59	-1.1	215/263/298	83	299	8	15	29%	6%	53	-1.5	204/277/255	51	317	3	26	33%	8%	45	-0.7
✕Ronaldo Urdaneta 2021 · A	22	45	39→40	52→60	40	212/268/302	90	310	6	12	32%	7%	56	-1.3	184/266/257	73	309	5	22	38%	9%	46	-2.0	142/239/196	53	243	5	33	39%	9%	17	-1.1
✕Mikey Edie 2019 · A	22	48	36→30	51→50	37	220/270/286	66	325	3	15	32%	5%	53	-1.5	213/265/284	71	299	4	8	29%	4%	50	-1.7	206/255/265	59	290	3	7	28%	3%	37	-1.3
✕Armand Gaerlan 2006 · A	23	46	38→30	54→55	44	218/278/299	81	295	5	16	27%	7%	59	-1.1	204/257/316	112	265	10	11	26%	6%	56	-1.3	125/167/273	148	136	14	3	22%	4%	5	-0.8
✕Noel Cuevas 2015 · AA	23	44→49	42→45	53→55	40	216/258/322	106	277	9	16	25%	5%	57	-1.2	227/261/318	91	299	6	18	25%	3%	57	-1.2	241/274/340	99	304	7	12	22%	3%	65	-0.5