Brody Moore
SS Memphis Redbirds| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | A+STL | 446 | .260/.320/.332 | 3 | 30 | 47 | — | .214/.264/.262 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA/AASTL | 394 | .241/.302/.311 | 4 | 12 | 53 | — | .225/.273/.283 |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA/AASTL | 446 | .281/.344/.357 | 3 | 24 | 71 | — | .258/.305/.324 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 27 | MLBSTL | 16 | .219/.268/.281 | 0 | 1 | 55 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 28 | MLBSTL | 69 | .219/.269/.283 | 0 | 2 | 55 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 22 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 129 | 111 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 28 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 252 | 336 | 288 | 624 | 36 | 322 | 22 | 11 | 284 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | — | 154 | 137 | 29 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 36 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 212 | 294 | 307 | 601 | 95 | 277 | 23 | 9 | 275 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 66 | 57 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 23 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 211 | 318 | 246 | 564 | 35 | 353 | 35 | 14 | 270 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | — | 446 | 404 | 105 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 32 | 86 | 4 | 30 | 10 | 260 | 320 | 332 | 652 | 72 | 322 | 19 | 7 | 294 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | — | 221 | 197 | 47 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 49 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 239 | 309 | 315 | 623 | 76 | 302 | 22 | 8 | 282 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 173 | 160 | 39 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 30 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 244 | 292 | 306 | 599 | 63 | 287 | 17 | 6 | 271 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | — | 351 | 307 | 77 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 30 | 63 | 3 | 16 | 7 | 251 | 324 | 313 | 636 | 62 | 304 | 18 | 9 | 285 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 95 | 88 | 34 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 386 | 419 | 511 | 931 | 125 | 432 | 15 | 5 | 405 | 123 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 129 | 116 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 39 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 216 | 272 | 241 | 513 | 26 | 300 | 30 | 7 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 154 | 142 | 24 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 48 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 169 | 229 | 246 | 475 | 77 | 237 | 31 | 6 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 66 | 60 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 150 | 227 | 183 | 411 | 33 | 321 | 50 | 9 | 187 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 446 | 412 | 88 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 108 | 4 | 30 | 10 | 214 | 264 | 262 | 526 | 49 | 281 | 24 | 5 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 221 | 201 | 45 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 62 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 224 | 281 | 294 | 575 | 70 | 294 | 28 | 6 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 173 | 163 | 37 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 37 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 227 | 263 | 270 | 533 | 43 | 284 | 21 | 4 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 351 | 316 | 74 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 75 | 3 | 16 | 7 | 234 | 288 | 288 | 576 | 54 | 282 | 21 | 6 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 95 | 90 | 31 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 344 | 366 | 456 | 821 | 111 | 386 | 18 | 3 | 350 | 123 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 129 | 116 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 39 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 216 | 272 | 241 | 513 | 26 | 309 | 30 | 7 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A RAW | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 129 | 111 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 28 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 252 | 336 | 288 | 624 | 36 | 322 | 22 | 11 | 284 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 220 | 202 | 33 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 81 | 2 | 11 | 4 | 163 | 228 | 228 | 456 | 64 | 264 | 37 | 7 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 220 | 194 | 41 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 59 | 2 | 11 | 4 | 211 | 301 | 289 | 590 | 77 | 296 | 27 | 10 | 274 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 446 | 412 | 88 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 108 | 4 | 30 | 10 | 214 | 264 | 262 | 526 | 49 | 283 | 24 | 5 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ RAW | Peoria Chiefs | — | 446 | 404 | 105 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 32 | 86 | 4 | 30 | 10 | 260 | 320 | 332 | 652 | 72 | 322 | 19 | 7 | 294 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 394 | 364 | 82 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 99 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 225 | 273 | 283 | 556 | 58 | 297 | 25 | 5 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 394 | 357 | 86 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 27 | 79 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 241 | 302 | 311 | 612 | 70 | 295 | 20 | 7 | 277 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 446 | 406 | 103 | 18 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 93 | 3 | 24 | 7 | 254 | 300 | 313 | 613 | 59 | 316 | 21 | 5 | 274 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 446 | 395 | 111 | 21 | 0 | 3 | 35 | 77 | 3 | 24 | 7 | 281 | 344 | 357 | 701 | 76 | 333 | 17 | 8 | 311 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 129 | 119 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 39 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 210 | 272 | 235 | 507 | 25 | 300 | 30 | 7 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 220 | 201 | 33 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 81 | 2 | 11 | 4 | 164 | 228 | 229 | 457 | 65 | 262 | 37 | 7 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 446 | 415 | 88 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 108 | 4 | 30 | 10 | 212 | 264 | 260 | 524 | 48 | 281 | 24 | 5 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 394 | 367 | 82 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 99 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 223 | 273 | 281 | 554 | 57 | 290 | 25 | 5 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 446 | 416 | 103 | 18 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 93 | 3 | 24 | 7 | 248 | 300 | 305 | 606 | 58 | 304 | 21 | 5 | 274 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | A+ MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 446 | 415 | 88 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 108 | 4 | 30 | 10 | 212 | 264 | 260 | 524 | 48 | 281 | 24 | 5 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 394 | 367 | 82 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 99 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 223 | 273 | 281 | 554 | 57 | 290 | 25 | 5 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 446 | 416 | 103 | 18 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 93 | 3 | 24 | 7 | 248 | 300 | 305 | 606 | 58 | 304 | 21 | 5 | 274 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB MLE | STL | 10% | 380 | 353 | 78 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 85 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 218 | 267 | 280 | 547 | 62 | 277 | 22 | 6 | 249 | 55 | -20 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +8 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB CTX | STL | 10% | 16 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 219 | 268 | 281 | 549 | 62 | 279 | 25 | 6 | 250 | 55 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 28 | MLB MLE | STL | 31% | 222 | 206 | 44 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 50 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 218 | 268 | 282 | 550 | 64 | 277 | 23 | 5 | 250 | 55 | -12 | +1 | -1 | +2 | +5 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB CTX | STL | 31% | 69 | 64 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 219 | 269 | 283 | 552 | 64 | 279 | 23 | 6 | 251 | 55 | -4 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 69 | 64 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 203 | 261 | 234 | 495 | 31 | 271 | 23 | 6 | 251 | 52 | -4 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 603 | 123 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 38 | 151 | 9 | 19 | 9 | 204 | 262 | 235 | 497 | 32 | 272 | 23 | 6 | 251 | 52 | -34 | +0 | -2 | +7 | +14 | -1.6 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2012 | 1851 | 406 | 61 | 4 | 11 | 112 | 505 | 16 | 92 | 24 | 219 | 270 | 274 | 544 | 55 | 291 | 25 | 6 | 246 | 52 | -20 | +1 | -1 | +4 | +8 | -0.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 598 | 132 | 20 | 1 | 4 | 36 | 163 | 5 | 30 | 8 | 221 | 271 | 278 | 548 | 57 | 292 | 25 | 6 | 246 | 52 | -35 | +2 | -1 | +7 | +14 | -1.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 351 PAwOBA .284 → .253 (−31)K% 17.9% → 21.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.95% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 21.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.55% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 6.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.85% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.82% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.59% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.002 | ×1.018 | 23.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.56% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.002 | ×1.018 | 5.55% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.002 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 0.29% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.
Result: wOBA .284 → .253; ISO .062 → .053; BABIP .304 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AASpringfield Cardinals · 95 PAwOBA .403 → .350 (−53)K% 14.7% → 18.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.74% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 17.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 3.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 36.49% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.002 | ×0.988 | 33.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×1.002 | ×0.988 | 5.62% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | ×1.002 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.70% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 2.14% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.
Result: wOBA .403 → .350; ISO .125 → .102; BABIP .432 → .386. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 221 PAwOBA .279 → .250 (−29)K% 22.2% → 27.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.17% | ÷0.953 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.69% | ÷0.954 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 5.75% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.36% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.32% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷0.982 | ×0.930 | ×1.018 | ×1.033 | 24.90% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.73% | ÷1.033 | ×0.830 | ×1.018 | ×1.033 | 4.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.68% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.018 | ×1.033 | 0.77% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.35% | ÷0.869 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 1.13% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 96, 2B 107, 3B 80, K 91, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.
Result: wOBA .279 → .250; ISO .076 → .065; BABIP .302 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AASpringfield Cardinals · 173 PAwOBA .265 → .242 (−23)K% 17.3% → 21.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.34% | ÷0.992 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.32% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.78% | ÷0.987 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 4.09% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.58% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 0.50% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.38% | ÷0.966 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 25.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.08% | ÷0.916 | ×0.840 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 2.96% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.54% | ÷1.105 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 1.11% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 93, 2B 83, 3B 80, K 98, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .265 → .242; ISO .062 → .050; BABIP .287 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Peoria Chiefs · 446 PAwOBA .288 → .238 (−50)K% 19.3% → 24.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.28% | ÷1.006 | ×1.270 | — | — | 24.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.17% | ÷0.930 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 5.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.90% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 0.70% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.42% | ÷0.995 | ×0.920 | ×0.982 | ×0.988 | 23.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.03% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×0.982 | ×0.988 | 3.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.63% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.982 | ×0.988 | 0.45% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.94% | ÷0.993 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 0.75% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 99, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 101, BB 86 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.
Result: wOBA .288 → .238; ISO .072 → .055; BABIP .322 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Peoria Chiefs · 154 PAwOBA .270 → .207 (−63)K% 23.4% → 30.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.38% | ÷0.961 | ×1.270 | — | — | 30.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.09% | ÷1.065 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 6.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.30% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 1.02% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.81% | ÷1.030 | ×0.920 | ×0.984 | ×0.998 | 16.50% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.92% | ÷0.992 | ×0.810 | ×0.984 | ×0.998 | 6.35% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.99% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×0.984 | ×0.998 | 0.92% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.99% | ÷1.093 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 0.72% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 106, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 92, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.
Result: wOBA .270 → .207; ISO .095 → .072; BABIP .277 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 APalm Beach Cardinals · 66 PAwOBA .265 → .187 (−78)K% 34.8% → 49.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.85% | ÷0.950 | ×1.360 | — | — | 49.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.64% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 9.31% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 32.35% | ÷0.998 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.990 | 29.52% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.007 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.94% | ÷1.023 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.990 | 2.59% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.010 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 100, 2B 101, 3B 105, K 90, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .265 → .187; ISO .035 → .024; BABIP .353 → .321. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 APalm Beach Cardinals · 129 PAwOBA .286 → .239 (−47)K% 21.7% → 30.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.71% | ÷0.966 | ×1.360 | — | — | 30.56% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.85% | ÷1.029 | ×0.690 | — | — | 7.28% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.92% | ÷0.985 | ×0.920 | ×1.026 | — | 27.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.82% | ÷1.076 | ×0.830 | ×1.026 | — | 3.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×1.026 | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.880 | ×0.800 | — | — | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 97, 2B 115, 3B 80, K 93, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.
Result: wOBA .286 → .239; ISO .036 → .028; BABIP .322 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).