Manuel Beltre — OGILVIE

Manuel BeltreSS Vancouver Canadians

Age 22 R/R 5'10" / 155 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION225 act + 27 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†47

AVG/OBP/SLG.160 / .222 / .200

PA27

HR0

K%26

BB%7

BABIP239

ISO40

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER30

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED55

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	17	ROK	DSL Blue Jays	—	238	182	41	10	3	2	42	33	10	10	4	225	397	346	744	121	258	14	18	345	119	+5	+0	—	—	+5	1.1
2022	18	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	22	21	8	1	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	381	409	571	981	190	412	14	5	431	178	+2	+0	—	—	+0	0.3
2022	18	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	—	206	171	40	8	1	1	22	41	10	9	4	234	353	310	663	76	298	20	11	310	96	-1	+0	—	—	+4	0.4
2023	19	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	431	368	85	22	0	6	48	83	11	12	2	231	336	340	676	109	280	19	11	311	96	-2	+2	—	—	+9	0.9
2024	20	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	446	386	91	16	2	5	43	83	15	23	5	236	336	326	662	91	287	19	10	307	94	-3	+3	—	—	+10	0.9
2025	21	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	431	376	89	20	1	5	44	76	5	26	7	237	325	335	660	98	279	18	10	300	89	-6	+2	—	—	+9	0.6
2025	21	INTL	Perth Heat	—	75	72	19	2	0	2	2	11	0	1	1	264	284	375	659	111	283	15	3	289	82	-2	-0	—	—	+2	-0.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	238	199	31	7	2	1	25	48	10	10	4	156	282	226	508	70	188	20	11	239	48	-15	+0	—	—	+5	-0.9
2022	18	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	22	21	7	1	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	333	364	524	887	190	380	18	5	367	135	+1	+0	—	—	+0	0.1
2022	18	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	206	180	31	6	1	1	14	58	10	9	4	172	270	233	503	61	231	28	7	221	36	-16	+0	—	—	+4	-1.1
2023	19	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	431	383	72	19	0	4	34	116	11	12	2	188	273	269	542	81	251	27	8	246	53	-24	+2	—	—	+9	-1.4
2024	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	446	396	78	14	1	4	33	113	15	23	5	197	284	268	551	71	263	25	7	254	58	-22	+3	—	—	+10	-1.0
2025	21	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	431	388	75	17	1	3	32	112	5	26	7	193	264	265	529	72	250	26	7	240	49	-26	+2	—	—	+9	-1.5
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	238	199	31	7	2	1	25	48	10	10	4	156	282	226	508	70	195	20	11	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays	—	238	182	41	10	3	2	42	33	10	10	4	225	397	346	744	121	258	14	18	345	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	228	201	38	7	1	2	15	62	10	9	4	189	279	264	542	75	259	27	7	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	228	192	48	9	1	2	23	44	10	9	4	250	358	339	697	89	311	19	10	322	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	431	383	72	19	0	4	34	116	11	12	2	188	273	269	542	81	256	27	8	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	431	368	85	22	0	6	48	83	11	12	2	231	336	340	676	109	280	19	11	311	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	446	396	78	14	1	4	33	113	15	23	5	197	284	268	551	71	263	25	7	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	446	386	91	16	2	5	43	83	15	23	5	236	336	326	662	91	287	19	10	307	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	506	456	88	20	1	4	38	131	5	27	8	193	263	268	530	75	256	26	8	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	506	448	108	22	1	7	46	87	5	27	8	241	319	342	660	100	280	17	9	298	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	238	201	31	7	2	1	25	48	10	10	4	154	282	224	506	70	188	20	11	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	228	201	38	7	1	2	15	62	10	9	4	189	279	264	542	75	245	27	7	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	431	383	72	19	0	4	34	116	11	12	2	188	273	269	542	81	251	27	8	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	446	395	78	14	1	4	33	113	15	23	5	197	284	268	552	71	263	25	7	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	506	458	88	20	1	4	38	131	5	27	8	192	263	266	529	74	250	26	8	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	431	383	72	19	0	4	34	116	11	12	2	188	273	269	542	81	251	27	8	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	446	395	78	14	1	4	33	113	15	23	5	197	284	268	552	71	263	25	7	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	506	458	88	20	1	4	38	131	5	27	8	192	263	266	529	74	250	26	8	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	TOR	—	225	207	39	9	0	5	10	69	4	6	3	188	240	304	544	116	248	31	4	232	43	-15	+0	+0	+2	+5	-0.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ RAW	TOR	—	225	201	49	12	0	6	16	49	4	6	3	244	312	393	705	149	287	22	7	311	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	22	A+ MLE	TOR	0%	27	25	4	1	0	0	2	7	0	1	0	160	222	200	422	40	238	26	7	237	47	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
TOT	22	A+ MLE	TOR	—	252	232	43	10	0	5	12	76	4	7	3	185	238	293	531	108	245	30	5	233	44	-17	+0	+0	+3	+5	-0.9
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	TOR	35%	482	439	84	18	1	8	32	124	8	11	4	191	259	292	550	100	243	26	7	251	56	-25	+1	+0	+5	+10	-0.9
2028	24	MLB MLE	TOR	46%	520	471	92	19	1	10	36	130	8	12	4	195	264	304	568	108	247	25	7	261	63	-23	+1	+0	+6	+11	-0.5
2029	25	MLB MLE	TOR	52%	550	497	101	21	1	12	39	136	9	13	4	203	273	322	595	119	250	25	7	267	67	-22	+1	+0	+6	+12	-0.3
2030	26	MLB MLE	TOR	54%	562	508	102	21	1	12	40	139	9	13	4	201	271	317	588	116	251	25	7	269	68	-21	+1	+0	+6	+12	-0.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	TOR	54%	565	510	102	21	1	12	41	140	9	13	4	200	271	316	587	116	251	25	7	269	69	-21	+1	+0	+6	+12	-0.2
2032	28	MLB MLE	TOR	54%	563	507	102	21	1	12	42	140	9	12	4	201	274	318	592	116	250	25	7	269	68	-21	+1	-1	+6	+12	-0.3
2033	29	MLB MLE	TOR	53%	554	499	101	21	1	12	41	139	9	11	4	202	275	321	596	118	250	25	7	267	67	-22	+1	-1	+6	+12	-0.5
2027	23	MLB CTX	TOR	35%	167	151	29	6	0	3	11	43	3	4	1	192	261	291	552	99	244	26	7	240	56	-9	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	TOR	46%	240	218	44	9	1	5	16	60	4	6	2	202	269	321	590	119	248	25	7	250	63	-11	+0	+0	+3	+5	-0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	TOR	52%	284	258	53	11	1	6	20	70	4	7	2	205	273	326	599	120	251	25	7	256	67	-11	+1	+0	+3	+6	-0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	TOR	54%	305	275	57	12	1	7	22	75	5	7	2	207	278	335	613	127	252	25	7	258	68	-11	+1	+0	+3	+7	-0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	TOR	54%	307	277	57	12	1	7	22	76	5	7	2	206	276	332	608	126	252	25	7	259	69	-12	+1	+0	+3	+7	-0.1
2032	28	MLB CTX	TOR	54%	306	275	56	11	1	7	23	76	5	7	2	204	277	327	605	124	251	25	8	258	68	-12	+1	-0	+3	+7	-0.2
2033	29	MLB CTX	TOR	53%	294	265	53	11	1	6	22	74	5	6	2	200	274	317	591	117	251	25	7	256	67	-12	+0	-1	+3	+6	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1903	1719	349	72	6	41	136	474	31	44	13	203	274	323	597	120	254	25	7	255	61	-77	+4	-1	+20	+41	-1.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	587	120	25	2	14	46	162	11	15	4	204	274	325	600	121	256	25	7	255	61	-26	+1	-0	+7	+14	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	5672	5091	995	210	12	93	418	1425	112	167	51	195	271	296	568	101	250	25	7	258	61	-157	+6	-2	+41	+83	-3.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	583	114	24	1	11	48	163	13	19	6	196	271	297	568	101	249	25	7	258	61	-27	+1	-0	+7	+14	-0.5

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	3.7	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
/162	664	8	8	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#3J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	2.5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
/162	664	31	1	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	2.9	1,904	40	43	201	268	317	+20	+9	-0.0	0.1
/162	664	14	15	+7.1	+3.1	-0.0	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Manuel Beltre (OGILVIE)	22	40	30	55	40	180/246/267	87	238	4	8	27%	6%	47	-1.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Luke Williams 2019 · A	22	40→44	38→45	50→65	41	197/248/266	70	256	6	15	25%	5%	46	-2.6	206/264/300	94	275	7	19	26%	7%	60	-1.6	222/284/339	116	307	11	42	29%	7%	74	-0.3
✕Joe Munoz 2008 · A	22	43	36→30	51→55	44	202/275/270	69	257	2	16	21%	6%	58	-1.7	204/255/269	65	274	3	9	25%	4%	49	-2.4	197/231/226	29	265	0	9	25%	2%	27	-1.1
✕Terry Serrano 2009 · A	22	41	36→30	51→55	45	194/254/257	63	262	3	15	26%	7%	46	-2.6	209/290/282	73	320	3	15	32%	10%	65	-1.2	204/311/268	64	327	2	21	33%	13%	68	-0.5
✕Jonatan Santana 2010 · A	22	45	37→40	50→55	49	210/266/286	76	245	4	13	16%	6%	57	-1.8	194/245/265	71	265	4	7	26%	6%	45	-2.7	163/212/202	39	257	0	3	34%	4%	15	-1.4
✕Anthony Phillips 2012 · A	22	37→47	39→40	50	41	184/244/261	77	250	7	18	28%	6%	44	-2.8	194/258/278	84	264	7	9	28%	7%	53	-2.1	212/276/285	73	285	5	6	25%	7%	59	-1.1
✕Lolo Sanchez 2021 · A	22	44→43	39→45	54→55	45	209/272/300	91	255	6	21	20%	6%	63	-1.4	210/285/316	106	253	11	18	21%	8%	72	-0.7	198/277/292	93	235	11	17	20%	8%	62	-0.8
✕Alfredo González 2015 · A	23	42	38→30	52→45	43	203/264/285	81	271	6	9	26%	6%	56	-1.9	233/294/295	62	311	4	6	24%	7%	70	-0.9	228/291/282	54	298	4	5	23%	7%	63	-0.7
✕Juan Montes 2017 · A	22	39	38→30	50→55	43	189/263/266	77	237	6	12	22%	6%	53	-2.1	203/284/273	70	273	5	16	26%	6%	63	-1.4	192/284/244	52	266	4	21	26%	6%	56	-0.6
✕Jamodrick McGruder 2014 · A	22	40→44	37→40	52→50	47	193/261/259	66	255	5	10	25%	8%	50	-2.3	212/286/308	96	275	7	10	23%	9%	70	-0.8	208/289/307	99	266	6	10	22%	10%	68	-0.7
✕Gregori Gonzalez 2011 · A	22	45	35→30	50→55	42	210/255/270	60	259	1	15	19%	4%	49	-2.4	220/262/311	91	280	5	10	22%	4%	61	-1.5	235/255/369	134	291	7	9	22%	2%	72	-0.1
✕Glenn Santiago 2022 · A	21	43	40	51→45	49	207/278/298	91	250	7	11	20%	7%	65	-1.2	199/261/287	88	292	7	8	32%	7%	56	-1.9	182/247/261	79	270	7	8	33%	7%	43	-1.1
✕Gorge Munoz 2017 · A	21	43	38→40	50→55	42	205/260/282	78	258	5	17	22%	5%	54	-2.0	206/257/291	85	297	7	10	31%	5%	55	-1.9	189/234/268	78	291	9	9	37%	3%	38	-0.8
✕Luis Pintor 2017 · A	22	44→43	35→30	50→45	44	205/264/265	60	267	2	10	23%	6%	52	-2.2	192/258/252	60	248	3	6	22%	6%	47	-2.6	177/247/227	49	227	3	5	22%	6%	35	-1.8
✕Ramón Rodríguez 2021 · A	22	44	38→40	47→45	46	212/264/289	77	261	5	6	21%	6%	57	-1.8	222/269/310	88	273	9	6	21%	6%	63	-1.3	220/282/315	95	243	11	8	14%	7%	69	-0.4
✕Claudio Finol 2022 · A	22	40	38→40	46→45	40	194/253/278	85	271	5	6	29%	6%	51	-2.3	196/253/280	84	275	6	9	29%	6%	51	-2.2	192/260/271	78	271	9	12	31%	7%	51	-0.6
✕Luis De La Cruz 2011 · A	22	39	40→30	47→30	38	193/228/291	98	250	6	6	26%	4%	44	-2.8	234/265/314	80	285	4	6	19%	4%	62	-1.4	265/287/332	67	311	3	4	16%	3%	71	-0.3
✕Cristo Arnal 2008 · A	22	42	36→30	48→50	45	198/253/260	62	250	3	12	22%	6%	46	-2.6	222/267/277	55	270	3	15	18%	5%	55	-2.0	227/273/264	37	271	2	19	16%	5%	51	-1.0
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	41	38→40	49→40	40	195/262/275	80	276	6	7	30%	6%	54	-2.0	219/298/304	85	284	8	4	24%	7%	74	-0.5	216/302/271	55	271	5	1	21%	8%	67	-0.3
✕Will Piwnica-Worms 2013 · A	23	41	36→40	52→50	47	193/261/264	71	245	3	7	22%	7%	51	-2.3	207/282/289	82	278	6	8	26%	8%	65	-1.2	203/283/282	80	272	6	8	26%	8%	62	-0.7
✕Jose Antequera 2018 · A	22	41	35→30	53→40	42	193/238/256	63	242	2	11	21%	5%	39	-3.1	216/267/281	65	284	4	6	24%	6%	56	-1.9	228/279/276	48	299	3	3	23%	6%	58	-0.5

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps