Anthony Phillips
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 26 | AASEA | 405 | .259/.338/.317 | 1 | 9 | 60 | — | .243/.302/.296 |
| 2017 | 27 | AACOL | 314 | .209/.265/.282 | 4 | 2 | 25 | — | .192/.223/.249 |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA/AACOL | 76 | .297/.408/.625 | 5 | 1 | 106 | — | .221/.303/.426 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2007 | 17 | ROK | AZL Mariners | — | 144 | 122 | 34 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 43 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 279 | 376 | 287 | 663 | 8 | 425 | 30 | 13 | 308 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 18 | ROK | Pulaski Mariners | — | 66 | 56 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 196 | 297 | 214 | 511 | 18 | 250 | 20 | 11 | 242 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | A+ | High Desert Mavericks | — | 47 | 35 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 229 | 400 | 457 | 857 | 229 | 318 | 26 | 21 | 366 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | A | Clinton LumberKings | — | 368 | 316 | 63 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 28 | 77 | 8 | 23 | 11 | 199 | 281 | 266 | 547 | 66 | 249 | 21 | 8 | 246 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | A | Clinton LumberKings | — | 442 | 370 | 79 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 40 | 87 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 214 | 302 | 305 | 608 | 92 | 263 | 20 | 9 | 266 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A+ | High Desert Mavericks | — | 485 | 414 | 108 | 24 | 4 | 9 | 48 | 92 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 261 | 354 | 403 | 758 | 143 | 311 | 19 | 10 | 335 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 114 | 97 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 237 | 327 | 320 | 647 | 82 | 299 | 18 | 11 | 289 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A+ | Clearwater Threshers | — | 178 | 153 | 35 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 36 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 229 | 322 | 307 | 629 | 78 | 287 | 20 | 11 | 286 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | — | 405 | 347 | 90 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 37 | 79 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 259 | 338 | 317 | 655 | 58 | 326 | 20 | 9 | 291 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 314 | 287 | 60 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 73 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 209 | 265 | 282 | 548 | 73 | 267 | 23 | 7 | 248 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 53 | 44 | 14 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 318 | 434 | 591 | 1.025 | 273 | 364 | 17 | 17 | 445 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 23 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 250 | 348 | 700 | 1.048 | 450 | 167 | 22 | 13 | 441 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2007 | 17 | ROK MLE | AZL Mariners | — | 144 | 129 | 27 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 62 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 209 | 277 | 217 | 494 | 8 | 378 | 43 | 8 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 18 | ROK MLE | Pulaski Mariners | — | 66 | 58 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 155 | 234 | 172 | 407 | 17 | 202 | 27 | 8 | 179 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | A+ MLE | High Desert Mavericks | — | 47 | 38 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 211 | 333 | 421 | 754 | 211 | 257 | 34 | 15 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | A MLE | Clinton LumberKings | — | 368 | 326 | 57 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 101 | 8 | 23 | 11 | 175 | 236 | 227 | 463 | 52 | 222 | 27 | 5 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | A MLE | Clinton LumberKings | — | 442 | 380 | 71 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 30 | 125 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 187 | 259 | 263 | 522 | 76 | 240 | 28 | 7 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A+ MLE | High Desert Mavericks | — | 485 | 429 | 88 | 19 | 3 | 6 | 33 | 129 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 205 | 281 | 305 | 586 | 100 | 262 | 27 | 7 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 114 | 102 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 216 | 273 | 284 | 557 | 69 | 277 | 23 | 6 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A+ MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 178 | 157 | 32 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 50 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 204 | 282 | 280 | 562 | 76 | 266 | 28 | 9 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 405 | 358 | 87 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 26 | 96 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 243 | 302 | 296 | 598 | 53 | 298 | 24 | 6 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AA MLE | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 314 | 297 | 57 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 85 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 192 | 223 | 249 | 472 | 57 | 249 | 27 | 4 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 53 | 47 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 234 | 321 | 404 | 725 | 170 | 303 | 23 | 11 | 337 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AA MLE | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 23 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 190 | 261 | 476 | 737 | 286 | 142 | 26 | 9 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 17 | ROK MLE | AZL Mariners | — | 144 | 129 | 27 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 62 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 209 | 277 | 217 | 494 | 8 | 397 | 43 | 8 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 17 | ROK RAW | AZL Mariners | — | 144 | 122 | 34 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 43 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 279 | 376 | 287 | 663 | 8 | 425 | 30 | 13 | 308 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 18 | ROK MLE | Pulaski Mariners | — | 66 | 58 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 155 | 234 | 172 | 407 | 17 | 220 | 27 | 8 | 179 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 18 | ROK RAW | Pulaski Mariners | — | 66 | 56 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 196 | 297 | 214 | 511 | 18 | 250 | 20 | 11 | 242 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 415 | 364 | 64 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 117 | 8 | 26 | 11 | 176 | 244 | 245 | 489 | 69 | 245 | 28 | 6 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 415 | 351 | 71 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 38 | 89 | 8 | 26 | 11 | 202 | 295 | 285 | 580 | 83 | 255 | 21 | 9 | 260 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | A MLE | Clinton LumberKings | — | 442 | 380 | 71 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 30 | 125 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 187 | 259 | 263 | 522 | 76 | 264 | 28 | 7 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | A RAW | Clinton LumberKings | — | 442 | 370 | 79 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 40 | 87 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 214 | 302 | 305 | 608 | 92 | 263 | 20 | 9 | 266 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A+ MLE | High Desert Mavericks | — | 485 | 429 | 88 | 19 | 3 | 6 | 33 | 129 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 205 | 281 | 305 | 586 | 100 | 274 | 27 | 7 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A+ RAW | High Desert Mavericks | — | 485 | 414 | 108 | 24 | 4 | 9 | 48 | 92 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 261 | 354 | 403 | 758 | 143 | 311 | 19 | 10 | 335 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 292 | 259 | 54 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 76 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 208 | 278 | 282 | 560 | 73 | 286 | 26 | 8 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 292 | 250 | 58 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 32 | 57 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 232 | 324 | 312 | 636 | 80 | 292 | 20 | 11 | 287 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 405 | 358 | 87 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 26 | 96 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 243 | 302 | 296 | 598 | 53 | 322 | 24 | 6 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AA RAW | Arkansas Travelers | — | 405 | 347 | 90 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 37 | 79 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 259 | 338 | 317 | 655 | 58 | 326 | 20 | 9 | 291 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AA MLE | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 314 | 297 | 57 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 85 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 192 | 223 | 249 | 472 | 57 | 258 | 27 | 4 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AA RAW | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 314 | 287 | 60 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 73 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 209 | 265 | 282 | 548 | 73 | 267 | 23 | 7 | 248 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 76 | 69 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 217 | 289 | 420 | 710 | 203 | 250 | 24 | 9 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 76 | 64 | 19 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 297 | 408 | 625 | 1.033 | 328 | 311 | 18 | 16 | 444 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 17 | ROK MLE | AZL Mariners | — | 144 | 131 | 27 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 62 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 206 | 277 | 214 | 490 | 8 | 378 | 43 | 8 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 18 | ROK MLE | Pulaski Mariners | — | 66 | 60 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 150 | 234 | 167 | 401 | 17 | 202 | 27 | 8 | 179 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 415 | 379 | 64 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 117 | 8 | 26 | 11 | 169 | 244 | 235 | 479 | 66 | 226 | 28 | 6 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | A MLE | Clinton LumberKings | — | 442 | 402 | 71 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 30 | 125 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 177 | 259 | 249 | 508 | 72 | 240 | 28 | 7 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A+ MLE | High Desert Mavericks | — | 485 | 437 | 88 | 19 | 3 | 6 | 33 | 129 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 201 | 281 | 300 | 580 | 98 | 262 | 27 | 7 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 292 | 265 | 54 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 76 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 204 | 278 | 275 | 554 | 72 | 270 | 26 | 8 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 405 | 372 | 87 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 26 | 96 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 234 | 302 | 285 | 586 | 51 | 298 | 24 | 6 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AA MLE | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 314 | 299 | 57 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 85 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 191 | 223 | 247 | 471 | 57 | 249 | 27 | 4 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 76 | 69 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 217 | 289 | 420 | 710 | 203 | 254 | 24 | 9 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2639 | 2343 | 472 | 75 | 12 | 23 | 172 | 726 | 35 | 67 | 56 | 201 | 266 | 273 | 539 | 72 | 278 | 28 | 7 | 235 | 45 | -172 | -9 | +0 | +28 | +57 | -9.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 577 | 116 | 18 | 3 | 6 | 42 | 179 | 9 | 17 | 14 | 201 | 266 | 274 | 540 | 73 | 277 | 28 | 6 | 235 | 45 | -42 | -2 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -2.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2018 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 53 PAwOBA .428 → .337 (−92)K% 17.0% → 22.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.98% | ÷0.978 | ×1.290 | — | — | 22.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.09% | ÷1.024 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.992 | 10.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.14% | ÷1.034 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.992 | 14.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 17.14% | ÷0.960 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.992 | 14.35% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.973 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.71% | ÷1.162 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.992 | 3.81% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 132, 1B 107, 2B 92, 3B 95, K 96, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .428 → .337; ISO .273 → .209; BABIP .364 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAHartford Yard Goats · 23 PAwOBA .428 → .297 (−131)K% 21.7% → 25.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.74% | ÷1.035 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.04% | ÷1.051 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 8.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.33% | ÷1.011 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.968 | 12.38% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.081 | ×0.860 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.948 | ×0.950 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.194 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.968 | 12.65% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 139, 1B 102, 2B 116, 3B 90, K 107, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .428 → .297; ISO .450 → .288; BABIP .167 → .142. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAHartford Yard Goats · 314 PAwOBA .236 → .205 (−31)K% 23.2% → 27.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.25% | ÷1.051 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.41% | ÷1.017 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 3.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.32% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.26% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.96% | ÷1.026 | ×0.970 | ×1.034 | ×0.978 | 20.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.21% | ÷1.014 | ×0.860 | ×1.034 | ×0.978 | 3.61% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.034 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.87% | ÷1.183 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 1.21% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 105, 2B 103, 3B 80, K 110, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.034.
Result: wOBA .236 → .205; ISO .073 → .055; BABIP .267 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAArkansas Travelers · 405 PAwOBA .288 → .257 (−31)K% 19.5% → 23.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.51% | ÷1.009 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.14% | ÷0.979 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 6.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.99% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 0.85% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.99% | ÷0.995 | ×0.920 | ×1.014 | ×0.988 | 25.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.10% | ÷0.975 | ×0.840 | ×1.014 | ×0.988 | 3.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.12% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×1.014 | ×0.988 | 0.92% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.37% | ÷0.972 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 0.30% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 99, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 102, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.
Result: wOBA .288 → .257; ISO .058 → .051; BABIP .326 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 A+Clearwater Threshers · 178 PAwOBA .279 → .237 (−42)K% 20.2% → 27.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.22% | ÷1.028 | ×1.420 | — | — | 27.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.24% | ÷0.946 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.988 | 8.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.56% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.988 | 0.52% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.93% | ÷0.971 | ×0.920 | ×0.994 | ×0.988 | 22.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.42% | ÷0.965 | ×0.960 | ×0.994 | ×0.988 | 3.34% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.85% | ÷1.128 | ×0.810 | ×0.994 | ×0.988 | 0.60% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.71% | ÷1.056 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 1.41% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 94, 2B 93, 3B 126, K 106, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.
Result: wOBA .279 → .237; ISO .078 → .064; BABIP .287 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAReading Fightin Phils · 114 PAwOBA .281 → .250 (−31)K% 18.4% → 23.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.42% | ÷0.974 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.06% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.65% | ÷1.064 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 6.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.88% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.05% | ÷0.974 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 20.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.89% | ÷0.984 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 6.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.32% | ÷0.923 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 1.30% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.317 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 163, 1B 95, 2B 97, 3B 85, K 95, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .281 → .250; ISO .082 → .076; BABIP .299 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 A+High Desert Mavericks · 485 PAwOBA .330 → .257 (−73)K% 19.0% → 26.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.97% | ÷0.960 | ×1.340 | — | — | 26.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.90% | ÷1.037 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 6.76% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.47% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 1.95% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.05% | ÷1.038 | ×0.910 | ×0.990 | ×0.998 | 19.10% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.45% | ÷0.990 | ×0.820 | ×0.990 | ×0.998 | 6.10% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.24% | ÷1.083 | ×0.760 | ×0.990 | ×0.998 | 0.86% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.80% | ÷1.251 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 2.05% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 150, 1B 108, 2B 98, 3B 117, K 92, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .330 → .257; ISO .143 → .106; BABIP .311 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AClinton LumberKings · 442 PAwOBA .261 → .225 (−36)K% 19.7% → 28.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.68% | ÷0.949 | ×1.360 | — | — | 28.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.05% | ÷0.917 | ×0.690 | — | — | 6.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.58% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 1.24% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.14% | ÷1.002 | ×0.920 | ×1.005 | — | 18.58% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.30% | ÷0.935 | ×0.830 | ×1.005 | — | 4.73% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.71% | ÷1.050 | ×0.910 | ×1.005 | — | 0.62% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.77% | ÷0.917 | ×0.800 | — | — | 1.54% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 100, 2B 87, 3B 110, K 90, BB 83 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .261 → .225; ISO .092 → .081; BABIP .263 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).