Kevin Velasco
P
FCL Orioles
+0.2
WAR
Age 20
RHP
6'1" / 155 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
peak 0.5 · 2031
ERA4.35
FIP4.35
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.5%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%13.4%
IP31
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2031
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Orioles Orange | 11 | 2 | 25 | 107 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 12.7% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 4.68 | 4.70 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL Orioles Orange | 11 | 7 | 40 | 152 | 52 | 10 | 0 | 23.3% | 8.2% | 0.0% | 1.12 | 2.18 | +1.3 |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | FCL Orioles | 11 | 8 | 36 | 156 | 34 | 12 | 3 | 14.8% | 9.6% | 2.7% | 3.75 | 4.54 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | MLB | BAL | 31 | — | 31 | 130 | 29 | 12 | 4 | 22.5% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.35 | 4.35 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | BAL | 32 | — | 32 | 136 | 31 | 12 | 4 | 23.0% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 4.28 | 4.24 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | BAL | 34 | — | 34 | 143 | 34 | 12 | 4 | 23.9% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 4.16 | 4.07 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | BAL | 35 | — | 35 | 148 | 37 | 12 | 4 | 24.6% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 4.05 | 3.96 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | BAL | 36 | — | 36 | 152 | 38 | 12 | 4 | 25.2% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 3.95 | 3.88 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | BAL | 36 | — | 36 | 154 | 39 | 12 | 4 | 25.5% | 7.8% | 2.7% | 3.87 | 3.82 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 36 | — | 36 | 154 | 40 | 12 | 4 | 25.7% | 7.8% | 2.7% | 3.83 | 3.80 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 36 | — | 36 | 152 | 39 | 12 | 4 | 25.8% | 7.8% | 2.8% | 3.82 | 3.81 | +0.5 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 36 | — | 36 | 150 | 39 | 12 | 4 | 25.7% | 7.8% | 2.8% | 3.83 | 3.84 | +0.4 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 35 | — | 35 | 147 | 38 | 12 | 4 | 25.6% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 3.86 | 3.88 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 34 | — | 34 | 143 | 36 | 11 | 4 | 25.4% | 8.0% | 2.9% | 3.91 | 3.95 | +0.4 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 35 | 11 | 4 | 25.1% | 8.2% | 3.0% | 3.98 | 4.02 | +0.3 |
| 2038 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 31 | — | 31 | 132 | 33 | 11 | 4 | 24.9% | 8.3% | 3.0% | 4.06 | 4.11 | +0.3 |
| 2039 | 33 | MLB | BAL | 30 | — | 30 | 126 | 31 | 11 | 4 | 24.6% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 4.15 | 4.20 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 33 | 17 | 101 | 415 | 72 | 34 | 8 | 17.4% | 8.1% | 1.9% | 2.94 | 3.72 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 65 | 34 | 200 | 822 | 143 | 67 | 16 | 17.4% | 8.1% | 1.9% | 2.94 | 3.72 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kevin Velasco (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.35 | 22.5% | 9.2% | 2.9% | — | 4.09 | 23.9% | 15.4% | 101 | -0.26 | — | — | — |
| Kyle Zurak R 2028 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.96 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.42 | 16.7% | 7.5% | 121 | -0.54 | 3.19 | 181 | 90 |
| Cody Palmquist R 2028 · 4.20 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.20 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.3% | .278 | 5.95 | 14.7% | 7.1% | 62 | +1.75 | 4.20 | 104 | 90 |
| Kai Wynyard R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.23 | 21.1% | 9.1% | 3.2% | .269 | 4.12 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 138 | -0.11 | 3.32 | 206 | 89 |
| Danny Dopico R 2027 · 3.87 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.87 | 25.4% | 10.8% | 2.8% | .333 | 3.88 | 22.8% | 8.1% | 173 | +0.01 | 3.00 | 318 | 89 |
| Enmanuel Marcano R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.32 | 21.1% | 8.4% | 3.5% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 138 | 88 |
| Addison Russ R 2028 · 3.55 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.55 | 22.2% | 7.9% | 2.4% | .324 | 3.08 | 25.6% | 17.5% | 121 | -0.47 | 3.07 | 194 | 88 |
| Sandy Lugo R 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.86 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .352 | 3.96 | 23.6% | 12.5% | 119 | +0.10 | 3.46 | 146 | 88 |
| Jonathan Stiever R 2027 · 4.39 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.39 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 3.6% | .308 | 4.29 | 20.7% | 14.2% | 219 | -0.10 | 4.28 | 247 | 88 |
| Andrew Hoffmann R 2027 · 3.15 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.15 | 23.6% | 8.1% | 1.8% | .275 | 4.89 | 19.0% | 8.7% | 311 | +1.74 | 3.15 | 395 | 88 |
| Rayner Urbaez R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.83 | 23.6% | 11.4% | 2.3% | .337 | 3.35 | 15.0% | 3.0% | 27 | -0.48 | 2.50 | 103 | 88 |
| Blake Workman R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.00 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .307 | 3.94 | 23.8% | 19.5% | 105 | -0.06 | 3.11 | 213 | 88 |
| Chris Gau R 2027 · 4.76 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.76 | 20.0% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .290 | 3.18 | 29.5% | 23.5% | 37 | -1.58 | 2.98 | 211 | 88 |
| Osiris German R 2025 · 4.26 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.26 | 20.6% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .346 | 3.14 | 26.3% | 15.5% | 59 | -1.12 | 3.11 | 187 | 88 |
| Kendeglys Virguez R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.49 | 22.5% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.49 | 101 | 87 |
| Matt Walker R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.21 | 24.8% | 10.3% | 1.7% | .326 | 3.75 | 19.1% | 9.8% | 178 | +0.54 | 2.42 | 211 | 87 |
| Victor Castaneda R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.94 | 21.1% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .348 | 4.99 | 20.1% | 9.2% | 230 | +1.05 | 2.90 | 377 | 87 |
| Scott Williams R 2027 · 3.36 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.36 | 22.0% | 8.6% | 1.9% | .238 | 3.68 | 19.3% | 10.5% | 76 | +0.32 | 2.89 | 119 | 87 |
| Michael Gomez R 2028 · 3.33 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.33 | 22.6% | 9.2% | 1.8% | .283 | 3.80 | 17.9% | 8.3% | 110 | +0.47 | 3.33 | 286 | 87 |
| Kenny Oakley R 2028 · 3.50 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.50 | 23.8% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .348 | 3.89 | 17.3% | 7.8% | 115 | +0.39 | 3.18 | 144 | 87 |
| Joelvis Del Rosario R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.87 | 22.5% | 8.0% | 3.0% | .315 | 5.01 | 14.6% | 6.0% | 197 | +1.14 | 3.13 | 286 | 87 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2032
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2037
First FA Year 2038
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2031 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2037 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $4M | $9M | +$5M | ||