Kevin Velasco — OGILVIE

Kevin Velasco P FCL Orioles

Age 20 RHP 6'1" / 155 lbs ROK peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 21 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.51

FIP4.51

K%20.3%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%11.3%

ROS IP22

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	11	2	25	107	20	5	2	18%	2.3	12.7%	5.8%	6.9%	3.1%	4.68	4.46	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	11	2	25	107	20	5	2	18%	2.3	12.7%	5.8%	6.9%	3.1%	4.68	4.46	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Orange	11	2	25	107	20	5	2	18%	2.3	18.7%	4.7%	14.0%	1.9%	4.68	3.14	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	11	7	40	152	52	10	0	64%	3.6	23.3%	8.2%	15.0%	0.0%	1.12	2.18	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	11	7	40	152	52	10	0	64%	3.6	23.3%	8.2%	15.0%	0.0%	1.12	2.18	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Orange	11	7	40	152	52	10	0	64%	3.6	34.2%	6.6%	27.6%	0.0%	1.12	1.25	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	11	8	36	156	34	12	3	73%	3.3	14.8%	9.6%	5.2%	2.7%	3.75	4.54	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	11	8	36	156	34	12	3	73%	3.3	14.8%	9.6%	5.2%	2.7%	3.75	4.54	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	FCL Orioles	11	8	36	156	34	12	3	73%	3.3	21.8%	7.7%	14.1%	1.9%	3.75	3.29	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	9	3	17	70	20	11	1	33%	1.9	19.4%	19.6%	-0.2%	2.0%	3.78	5.05	—
YTD	20	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	9	3	17	70	20	11	1	33%	1.9	19.4%	19.6%	-0.2%	2.0%	3.78	5.05	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	BAL	9	3	17	70	20	11	1	33%	1.9	28.6%	15.7%	12.9%	1.4%	3.78	3.46	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	BAL	36	0	38	160	34	14	5	0%	1.0	21.1%	8.7%	12.4%	2.9%	4.42	4.38	+0.1
2027	21	MLB CTX	BAL	18	0	19	80	17	7	2	0%	1.1	21.1%	8.7%	12.4%	2.9%	4.42	4.38	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		18	0	19	78	17	7	2	0%	1.0	21.1%	8.7%	12.4%	2.9%	4.42	4.00	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	183	75	22	0%	1.1	21.1%	8.7%	12.4%	2.9%	4.42	4.00	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		42	20	118	485	86	48	9	48%	2.8	17.7%	9.8%	7.9%	1.8%	3.06	3.86	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		71	34	200	824	146	81	15	48%	2.8	17.7%	9.8%	7.9%	1.8%	3.06	3.86	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kevin Velasco (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.51	20.3%	9.0%	2.9%	—	4.38	21.1%	12.4%	38	-0.13	—	—	—
Simon Mathews R 2017 · 4.09 FIP	21	SW	4.09	17.7%	7.5%	2.8%	.326	4.42	16.0%	5.9%	167	+0.33	4.09	215	85
Dawil Almonte R 2022 · 3.59 FIP	20	SW	3.59	17.4%	7.8%	1.8%	.271	4.54	14.7%	3.3%	97	+0.95	3.59	138	84
Fraynel Nova R 2022 · 3.83 FIP	20	SP-	3.83	16.4%	7.9%	2.0%	.296	4.17	14.9%	4.9%	110	+0.34	3.38	129	84
Luis Aguilar R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	19	SW	4.45	17.6%	10.3%	2.8%	.356	4.27	16.7%	6.7%	111	-0.18	3.51	146	83
Sean Paul Liñan R 2023 · 4.05 FIP	18	SP-	4.05	17.7%	8.3%	2.5%	.324	4.30	22.1%	10.2%	210	+0.25	3.29	272	83
Deretd Parra R 2019 · 5.29 FIP	19	SP-	5.29	16.8%	10.9%	4.1%	.295	3.85	15.7%	2.3%	83	-1.44	2.79	161	83
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	82
Cole Stapler R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	22	SW	3.83	19.2%	6.0%	2.9%	.266	3.31	18.1%	13.2%	220	-0.52	3.26	255	82
Joelvis Del Rosario R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	20	SP-	3.76	22.5%	8.0%	2.8%	.315	4.97	14.6%	6.0%	197	+1.21	3.13	286	81
Adrián Martinez R 2017 · 4.30 FIP	20	SW	4.30	18.8%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	4.25	17.3%	7.6%	92	-0.05	2.02	526	80
Saul Teran R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	20	SW	4.81	17.5%	9.8%	3.5%	.333	3.88	20.8%	8.7%	94	-0.93	2.28	166	80
Felix Arronde R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	20	SW	4.42	20.2%	12.1%	2.7%	.275	4.98	15.8%	5.8%	344	+0.56	4.16	442	80
Lisandro Almonte R 2022 · 4.73 FIP	20	SP-	4.73	17.9%	10.3%	3.3%	.310	5.04	20.5%	3.3%	50	+0.31	3.81	128	80
Carson Rudd R 2021 · 3.39 FIP	22	SP-	3.39	25.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.351	5.24	21.6%	5.6%	193	+1.85	3.39	242	80
Nick Gallagher R 2018 · 4.26 FIP	22	SW	4.26	17.2%	7.1%	3.1%	.310	4.55	22.4%	7.1%	90	+0.29	4.10	196	80
Yunior Marte R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	19	SP-	4.22	16.4%	8.5%	2.6%	.321	4.05	18.1%	8.5%	241	-0.17	3.21	297	79
Saul Gonzalez R 2021 · 3.66 FIP	21	SP-	3.66	16.1%	8.4%	1.6%	.320	3.24	19.8%	9.6%	70	-0.42	2.94	110	78
Geno Encina R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	21	SW	4.22	16.5%	6.8%	3.0%	.325	7.09	12.0%	2.3%	76	+2.87	4.22	200	78
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	78
Connor Cooke R 2022 · 3.35 FIP	22	SP-	3.35	23.7%	8.4%	2.2%	.350	4.13	24.0%	11.4%	56	+0.78	2.93	103	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	30	20.8%	8.8%	1.12	4.45
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47