Adrián Martinez
P
Las Vegas Aviators
Age 29
RHP
6'2" / 215 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 103 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134125vR 115
ERA4.85
FIP5.06
K%20.0%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%9.9%
ROS IP103
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 103 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4093.8
Whiff%
p3523.1%
K%
p3219.5%
xwOBA vs
p180.350
FB-0.7
SL-2.2
CH-2.3
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | DSL Padres | 7 | 2 | 16 | 72 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 29% | 2.3 | 17.9% | 3.5% | 14.5% | 0.0% | 4.41 | 2.02 | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | DSL Padres | 7 | 2 | 16 | 72 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 29% | 2.3 | 26.4% | 2.8% | 23.6% | 0.0% | 4.41 | 1.14 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | ROK | AZL Padres | 13 | 4 | 30 | 134 | 37 | 9 | 3 | 31% | 2.3 | 18.8% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 3.1% | 4.50 | 4.30 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | ROK | AZL Padres | 13 | 4 | 30 | 134 | 37 | 9 | 3 | 31% | 2.3 | 27.6% | 6.7% | 20.9% | 2.2% | 4.50 | 2.83 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 8 | 1 | 17 | 92 | 26 | 12 | 2 | 12% | 2.2 | 20.9% | 15.4% | 5.5% | 2.1% | 9.87 | 4.43 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 8 | 1 | 17 | 92 | 26 | 12 | 2 | 12% | 2.2 | 28.3% | 13.0% | 15.2% | 2.2% | 9.87 | 3.68 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 6 | 81 | 332 | 76 | 22 | 7 | 18% | 2.5 | 16.5% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 2.3% | 3.22 | 4.01 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 6 | 81 | 332 | 76 | 22 | 7 | 18% | 2.5 | 22.9% | 6.6% | 16.3% | 2.1% | 3.22 | 3.16 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 22 | 125 | 523 | 122 | 39 | 10 | 85% | 4.8 | 19.4% | 8.0% | 11.4% | 2.2% | 3.38 | 3.69 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 22 | 125 | 523 | 122 | 39 | 10 | 85% | 4.8 | 23.3% | 7.5% | 15.9% | 1.9% | 3.38 | 3.12 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 30 | 147 | 648 | 153 | 51 | 37 | 100% | 4.9 | 21.8% | 8.1% | 13.6% | 5.6% | 5.93 | 5.39 | +0.0 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 30 | 147 | 648 | 153 | 51 | 37 | 100% | 4.9 | 23.6% | 7.9% | 15.7% | 5.7% | 5.93 | 5.33 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 13 | 93 | 432 | 71 | 40 | 17 | 37% | 2.7 | 15.8% | 9.5% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 6.27 | 5.31 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 13 | 93 | 432 | 71 | 40 | 17 | 37% | 2.7 | 16.4% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 3.9% | 6.27 | 5.23 | +0.0 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 1 | 27 | 137 | 27 | 15 | 8 | 5% | 1.2 | 14.4% | 13.6% | 0.8% | 6.6% | 9.22 | 7.24 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 1 | 27 | 137 | 27 | 15 | 8 | 5% | 1.2 | 19.7% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 9.22 | 6.58 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 167 | 0 | 175 | 739 | 147 | 74 | 27 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 3.6% | 4.85 | 5.06 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 157 | 0 | 164 | 695 | 134 | 72 | 27 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.2% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 3.8% | 5.10 | 5.27 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | OAK | 146 | 0 | 153 | 648 | 120 | 69 | 26 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.5% | 10.7% | 7.8% | 4.1% | 5.34 | 5.50 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 57 | 0 | 60 | 253 | 49 | 26 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.2% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 3.8% | 5.10 | 5.27 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | OAK | 81 | 0 | 85 | 359 | 66 | 38 | 15 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.5% | 10.7% | 7.8% | 4.1% | 5.34 | 5.50 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 172 | 13 | 258 | 1112 | 215 | 102 | 45 | 8% | 1.5 | 19.3% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 4.1% | 5.36 | 4.86 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 134 | 10 | 200 | 863 | 167 | 79 | 35 | 8% | 1.5 | 19.3% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 4.1% | 5.36 | 4.86 | +1.3 | ||
| Career | — | 174 | 79 | 538 | 2370 | 443 | 210 | 89 | 45% | 3.1 | 18.7% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 3.8% | 5.16 | 4.71 | +4.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 65 | 29 | 200 | 882 | 165 | 78 | 33 | 45% | 3.1 | 18.7% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 3.8% | 5.16 | 4.71 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Adrián Martinez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.06 | 20.0% | 10.1% | 3.6% | — | 5.38 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 318 | +0.32 | — | — | — |
| Odrisamer Despaigne R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.28 | 15.3% | 8.5% | 2.6% | .316 | 3.71 | 17.1% | 8.5% | 348 | -0.57 | 3.16 | 593 | 73 |
| Jose Pina R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.09 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 4.1% | .231 | 3.69 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.40 | 3.68 | 424 | 72 |
| Seth Simmons R 2025 · 4.36 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.36 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .262 | 6.19 | 13.3% | 2.4% | 54 | +1.83 | 3.06 | 251 | 68 |
| Jason Berken R 2028 · 4.69 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.69 | 13.5% | 6.6% | 3.5% | .315 | 4.31 | 11.5% | 3.2% | 106 | -0.38 | 4.31 | 219 | 66 |
| Tim Adleman R 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.42 | 20.3% | 9.4% | 5.2% | .276 | 4.57 | 22.8% | 15.0% | 117 | -0.85 | 3.61 | 605 | 66 |
| Aaron Brooks R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.78 | 17.0% | 7.1% | 4.0% | .281 | 4.30 | 15.8% | 8.8% | 70 | -0.48 | 3.61 | 879 | 64 |
| Burch Smith R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.94 | 22.6% | 12.3% | 2.2% | .271 | 4.11 | 14.9% | 9.0% | 43 | +0.17 | 3.39 | 382 | 64 |
| Jacob Turner R 2024 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.69 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 63 |
| Daniel McCutchen R 2029 · 4.47 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.47 | 13.9% | 4.4% | 3.6% | .268 | 4.60 | 10.8% | 4.9% | 155 | +0.13 | 4.47 | 287 | 63 |
| Kanekoa Texeira R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.12 | 14.5% | 11.2% | 1.5% | .280 | 4.05 | 10.2% | -0.2% | 63 | -0.07 | 4.05 | 165 | 62 |
| Joel De La Cruz R 2024 · 4.47 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.47 | 14.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.28 | 205 | 62 |
| Bud Norris R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 62 |
| Scott McGregor R 2025 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.19 | 11.8% | 7.6% | 2.1% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 107 | 61 |
| Sugar Ray Marimon R 2023 · 4.08 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.08 | 12.4% | 9.1% | 1.6% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 107 | 60 |
| Mike Bolsinger R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.30 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 3.1% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 327 | 60 |
| Riley Thompson R 2025 · 4.52 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.52 | 18.0% | 10.4% | 2.9% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.52 | 340 | 60 |
| Colin Bates R 2024 · 4.59 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.59 | 10.5% | 6.5% | 2.9% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 111 | 59 |
| Deck McGuire R 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.39 | 18.4% | 13.2% | 4.0% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 622 | 59 |
| Hector Noesí R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 59 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 58 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 164 | 19.3% | 10.4% | 1.48 | 5.09 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| James Shields ('18) | 4 | 176 | 19.8% | 9.6% | 1.71 | 4.81 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Dan Straily ('19) | 4 | 136 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 1.72 | 4.54 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |
| Yovani Gallardo ('18) | 4 | 132 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.97 |