Juan Reyes — OGILVIE

Juan Reyes P FCL Nationals

Age 21 LHP 6'2" / 180 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.3 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 42 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108117vR 125

ERA4.82

FIP4.82

K%15.5%

BB%8.5%

K-BB%7.0%

ROS IP42

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$19M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†3050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2034	Arb-1	$1M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.1M
2035	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	8	8	13	50	11	4	0	100%	1.6	15.0%	10.0%	5.0%	0.0%	4.15	3.10	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	8	8	13	50	11	4	0	100%	1.6	15.0%	10.0%	5.0%	0.0%	4.15	3.10	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	8	8	13	50	11	4	0	100%	1.6	22.0%	8.0%	14.0%	0.0%	4.15	2.33	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	12	12	60	230	52	13	2	100%	5.0	15.4%	7.1%	8.3%	0.9%	2.40	3.21	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	12	12	60	230	52	13	2	100%	5.0	15.4%	7.1%	8.3%	0.9%	2.40	3.21	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	12	12	60	230	52	13	2	100%	5.0	22.6%	5.7%	17.0%	0.9%	2.40	2.45	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	17	14	65	260	75	23	4	82%	3.8	20.2%	10.9%	9.2%	2.1%	3.06	3.92	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	17	14	65	260	75	23	4	82%	3.8	20.2%	10.9%	9.2%	2.1%	3.06	3.92	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	WSH	11	9	41	169	50	19	2	82%	3.7	29.6%	11.2%	18.3%	1.2%	3.95	2.68	—
2026	21	A RAW	WSH	6	5	24	91	25	4	2	83%	3.9	27.5%	4.4%	23.1%	2.2%	1.52	2.54	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	WSH	13	13	66	281	49	23	8	100%	5.1	17.5%	8.2%	9.3%	2.8%	4.66	4.58	+0.2
2028	23	MLB MLE	WSH	13	13	69	291	54	23	8	100%	5.3	18.7%	8.0%	10.7%	2.8%	4.52	4.43	+0.4
2029	24	MLB MLE	WSH	13	13	71	299	58	23	8	100%	5.4	19.5%	7.8%	11.7%	2.8%	4.41	4.34	+0.5
2030	25	MLB MLE	WSH	12	12	72	302	60	23	8	100%	6.0	19.9%	7.7%	12.2%	2.7%	4.33	4.28	+0.5
2031	26	MLB MLE	WSH	12	12	72	302	61	23	8	100%	6.0	20.1%	7.7%	12.5%	2.7%	4.29	4.26	+0.5
2032	27	MLB MLE	WSH	12	12	70	298	60	23	8	100%	5.9	20.1%	7.7%	12.4%	2.8%	4.29	4.30	+0.5
2033	28	MLB MLE	WSH	11	11	68	289	58	23	8	100%	6.2	20.0%	7.9%	12.1%	2.9%	4.34	4.38	+0.4
2034	29	MLB MLE	WSH	11	11	65	276	55	22	8	100%	5.9	19.8%	8.1%	11.7%	3.0%	4.44	4.51	+0.3
2035	30	MLB MLE	WSH	10	10	61	259	50	22	8	100%	6.1	19.4%	8.4%	11.0%	3.2%	4.59	4.69	+0.1
2027	22	MLB CTX	WSH	6	6	33	139	24	11	4	100%	5.5	17.5%	8.2%	9.3%	2.8%	4.66	4.58	+0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	WSH	9	9	50	211	39	17	6	100%	5.6	18.7%	8.0%	10.7%	2.8%	4.52	4.43	+0.3
2029	24	MLB CTX	WSH	11	11	59	249	49	19	7	100%	5.4	19.5%	7.8%	11.7%	2.8%	4.41	4.34	+0.4
2030	25	MLB CTX	WSH	11	11	63	266	53	20	7	100%	5.7	19.9%	7.7%	12.2%	2.7%	4.33	4.28	+0.5
2031	26	MLB CTX	WSH	11	11	65	274	55	21	8	100%	5.9	20.1%	7.7%	12.5%	2.7%	4.29	4.26	+0.5
2032	27	MLB CTX	WSH	11	11	65	274	55	21	8	100%	5.9	20.1%	7.7%	12.4%	2.8%	4.29	4.30	+0.5
2033	28	MLB CTX	WSH	11	11	64	270	54	21	8	100%	5.8	20.0%	7.9%	12.1%	2.9%	4.34	4.38	+0.4
2034	29	MLB CTX	WSH	10	10	62	262	52	21	8	100%	6.2	19.8%	8.1%	11.7%	3.0%	4.44	4.51	+0.3
2035	30	MLB CTX	WSH	10	10	58	245	48	21	8	100%	5.8	19.4%	8.4%	11.0%	3.2%	4.59	4.69	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		90	90	520	2195	430	174	63	100%	5.8	19.6%	7.9%	11.7%	2.9%	4.41	4.03	+5.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	165	67	24	100%	5.8	19.6%	7.9%	11.7%	2.9%	4.41	4.03	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		37	34	138	540	95	50	8	92%	3.7	17.7%	9.2%	8.4%	1.4%	2.88	3.54	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	49	200	785	139	72	11	92%	3.7	17.7%	9.2%	8.4%	1.4%	2.88	3.54	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan Reyes (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.82	15.5%	8.5%	2.9%	—	4.45	18.6%	10.6%	206	-0.37	—	—	—
Wilkin Paredes L 2023 · 4.11 FIP	19	SP	4.11	16.2%	9.1%	2.2%	.353	4.96	12.1%	3.3%	273	+0.85	4.11	319	86
Packy Naughton L 2017 · 4.45 FIP	21	SP	4.45	17.0%	9.9%	2.8%	.323	3.62	15.9%	10.0%	311	-0.83	3.04	504	84
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	83
Evan Shawver L 2022 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	18.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.289	4.73	18.0%	4.0%	152	+0.41	3.92	278	82
Alex Troop L 2018 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP-	4.41	15.0%	7.5%	3.0%	.339	3.82	20.8%	16.2%	106	-0.59	2.93	379	82
Scott Moss L 2016 · 4.40 FIP	21	SP	4.40	12.2%	10.9%	1.7%	.284	4.04	19.7%	9.0%	398	-0.36	3.83	457	81
Matt Tenuta L 2015 · 4.96 FIP	21	SP	4.96	12.0%	9.5%	3.0%	.294	4.47	15.2%	6.4%	278	-0.49	2.85	421	81
Adalberto Mejía L 2015 · 3.79 FIP	22	SP-	3.79	14.7%	9.4%	1.3%	.237	3.67	19.3%	11.8%	344	-0.12	3.30	427	80
Rylan Kaufman L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	19.3%	12.1%	2.9%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.15	4.01	212	80
Hogan Harris L 2019 · 3.84 FIP	22	SP	3.84	20.5%	10.6%	2.1%	.235	3.71	27.4%	12.7%	74	-0.13	3.11	495	79
Holden Capps L 2017 · 3.92 FIP	22	SP	3.92	12.8%	9.9%	1.2%	.358	3.17	18.8%	13.5%	115	-0.75	2.99	215	79
Russell Smith L 2022 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	16.0%	10.4%	3.8%	.272	4.64	21.2%	7.8%	107	-0.50	4.00	175	79
Evan Kruczynski L 2017 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP	4.47	14.1%	6.1%	3.3%	.299	4.33	18.0%	8.7%	263	-0.14	3.69	350	79
Avery Short L 2022 · 4.82 FIP	21	SP-	4.82	20.1%	11.4%	3.6%	.346	4.72	15.0%	6.4%	271	-0.10	4.20	485	79
Randy Pondler L 2017 · 4.18 FIP	20	SP	4.18	12.9%	6.2%	2.5%	.255	6.35	15.1%	5.1%	12	+2.17	4.18	113	78
Caleb Baragar L 2016 · 3.65 FIP	22	SP-	3.65	15.6%	9.2%	1.3%	.300	4.48	16.5%	8.1%	330	+0.83	3.65	557	78
Evan Grills L 2015 · 5.42 FIP	23	SP-	5.42	13.0%	8.6%	4.2%	.335	4.02	16.1%	11.6%	221	-1.40	3.41	309	78
Frankeli Arias L 2023 · 4.27 FIP	20	SP-	4.27	15.0%	12.2%	1.6%	.318	5.53	16.1%	3.0%	196	+1.26	3.87	298	78
Ryan Lawlor L 2015 · 4.17 FIP	21	SP	4.17	14.8%	13.0%	1.2%	.286	3.24	20.1%	8.1%	107	-0.93	2.24	201	77
Jack O'Loughlin L 2021 · 3.78 FIP	21	SP	3.78	15.3%	10.4%	1.2%	.294	4.60	18.0%	7.9%	249	+0.82	3.78	348	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	66	19.2%	8.0%	1.11	4.45
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70