Juan Reyes

P FCL Nationals

Age 22 LHP 6'2" / 180 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.7 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#997ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	ROKWSH	8	8	13	4.15	2.33	22.0%	8.0%	—	K 15.0% · BB 10.0% · FIP 3.10
2025	20	ROKWSH	12	12	60	2.40	2.45	22.6%	5.7%	—	K 15.4% · BB 7.1% · FIP 3.21
2026	21	MIX2 levels	17	14	65	3.06	2.65	28.8%	8.8%	—	K 20.2% · BB 10.9% · FIP 3.92
2027PROJ	22	MLBWSH	—	—	0	4.90	4.90	17.7%	10.6%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBWSH	5	5	26	4.76	4.71	19.0%	10.1%	0.2
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBWSH	7	7	37	4.65	4.59	19.9%	9.8%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control50Command40

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsRylan Kaufman (age 22) · Christian MacLeod (age 23) · Evan Shawver (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110118vR 126

ERA4.90

FIP4.90

K%17.7%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%7.1%

Proj IP52

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$13M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$1M	+$0.6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	8	8	13	50	11	4	0	100%	1.6	15.0%	10.0%	5.0%	0.0%	4.15	3.10	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	8	8	13	50	11	4	0	100%	1.6	15.0%	10.0%	5.0%	0.0%	4.15	3.10	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	8	8	13	50	11	4	0	100%	1.6	22.0%	8.0%	14.0%	0.0%	4.15	2.33	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	12	12	60	230	52	13	2	100%	5.0	15.4%	7.1%	8.3%	0.9%	2.40	3.21	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	12	12	60	230	52	13	2	100%	5.0	15.4%	7.1%	8.3%	0.9%	2.40	3.21	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	12	12	60	230	52	13	2	100%	5.0	22.6%	5.7%	17.0%	0.9%	2.40	2.45	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	14	65	260	75	23	4	82%	3.8	20.2%	10.9%	9.2%	2.1%	3.06	3.92	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	14	65	260	75	23	4	82%	3.8	20.2%	10.9%	9.2%	2.1%	3.06	3.92	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	14	65	260	75	23	4	82%	3.8	28.8%	8.8%	20.0%	1.5%	3.06	2.65	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	WSH	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.7%	10.6%	7.1%	2.9%	4.90	4.90	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	WSH	10	10	52	222	42	22	6	100%	5.2	19.0%	10.1%	8.9%	2.8%	4.76	4.71	+0.4
2029	24	MLB MLE	WSH	9	9	52	222	44	22	6	100%	5.8	19.9%	9.8%	10.1%	2.8%	4.65	4.59	+0.5
2030	25	MLB MLE	WSH	8	8	45	189	39	18	5	100%	5.6	20.4%	9.6%	10.8%	2.8%	4.57	4.52	+0.5
2031	26	MLB MLE	WSH	7	7	45	189	39	18	5	100%	6.4	20.7%	9.6%	11.1%	2.8%	4.52	4.49	+0.5
2032	27	MLB MLE	WSH	7	7	44	184	38	18	5	100%	6.2	20.7%	9.6%	11.0%	2.9%	4.53	4.53	+0.4
2028	23	MLB CTX	WSH	5	5	26	110	21	11	3	100%	5.2	19.0%	10.1%	8.9%	2.8%	4.76	4.71	+0.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	WSH	7	7	37	156	31	15	4	100%	5.3	19.9%	9.8%	10.1%	2.8%	4.65	4.59	+0.3
2030	25	MLB CTX	WSH	6	6	36	152	31	15	4	100%	6.0	20.4%	9.6%	10.8%	2.8%	4.57	4.52	+0.4
2031	26	MLB CTX	WSH	6	6	39	165	34	16	5	100%	6.5	20.7%	9.6%	11.1%	2.8%	4.52	4.49	+0.4
2032	27	MLB CTX	WSH	6	6	39	165	34	16	5	100%	6.5	20.7%	9.6%	11.0%	2.9%	4.53	4.53	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		31	31	177	748	151	73	21	100%	5.7	20.2%	9.7%	10.5%	2.8%	4.59	4.18	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	171	82	24	100%	5.8	20.2%	9.7%	10.5%	2.8%	4.59	4.18	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		37	34	138	540	95	50	8	92%	3.7	17.7%	9.2%	8.4%	1.4%	2.88	3.54	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	49	200	785	139	72	11	92%	3.7	17.7%	9.2%	8.4%	1.4%	2.88	3.54	+1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKFCL Nationals · 41 IPFIP 2.68 → 4.09 (+1.42)K% 29.6% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.59%	—	×0.680	20.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.24%	—	×1.250	14.05%
HR / BF /BF	1.18%	÷1.000	×1.400	1.66%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.68 → 4.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AFredericksburg Nationals · 24 IPFIP 2.54 → 3.61 (+1.07)K% 27.5% → 20.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.47%	—	×0.740	20.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.40%	—	×1.180	5.19%
HR / BF /BF	2.20%	÷1.000	×1.300	2.86%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.54 → 3.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKDSL Nationals · 60 IPFIP 2.38 → 3.21 (+0.83)K% 22.6% → 15.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.61%	—	×0.680	15.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.65%	—	×1.250	7.07%
HR / BF /BF	0.87%	÷1.300	×1.400	0.94%

Result: FIP 2.38 → 3.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKDSL Nationals · 13 IPFIP 2.26 → 3.10 (+0.85)K% 22.0% → 15.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.00%	—	×0.680	14.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.00%	—	×1.250	10.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.207	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.26 → 3.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan Reyes (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.90	17.7%	10.6%	2.9%	—	4.61	19.7%	9.9%	150	-0.29	—	—	—
Rylan Kaufman L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	19.3%	12.1%	2.9%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.15	4.01	212	89
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.61	19.4%	5.0%	215	+0.09	3.88	280	86
Evan Shawver L 2022 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	18.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.289	4.73	18.0%	4.0%	152	+0.41	3.79	281	85
Brad Halsey L 2004 · 4.31 FIP	23	SP	4.31	16.3%	9.2%	2.6%	.336	4.43	11.9%	5.4%	254	+0.12	4.31	286	85
Jordan Woods L 2024 · 4.51 FIP	20	SP	4.51	20.5%	10.3%	3.3%	.329	4.18	20.5%	8.3%	139	-0.33	3.92	170	83
Antonio Bastardo L 2009 · 4.73 FIP	23	SP	4.73	17.9%	8.5%	3.8%	.297	3.04	33.0%	22.1%	129	-1.69	2.47	404	83
John Beller L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP	4.48	19.7%	14.1%	2.3%	.326	4.35	22.2%	7.1%	90	-0.13	4.16	170	82
Matt Mikulski L 2022 · 4.92 FIP	23	SP-	4.92	19.4%	10.0%	4.0%	.360	6.03	16.3%	-2.8%	144	+1.11	4.92	223	82
Hogan Harris L 2019 · 3.84 FIP	22	SP	3.84	20.5%	10.6%	2.1%	.235	3.71	27.4%	12.7%	74	-0.13	3.09	501	82
Yadiel Batista L 2024 · 4.67 FIP	20	SP	4.67	15.5%	10.2%	2.9%	.318	4.41	14.2%	5.5%	140	-0.26	3.00	225	82
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	82
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.8%	17.5%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	80
Russell Smith L 2022 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	16.0%	10.4%	3.8%	.272	4.64	21.2%	7.8%	107	-0.50	4.00	175	80
Andy Oliver L 2010 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP	4.66	17.6%	10.8%	3.1%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	187	80
Dallas Braden L 2007 · 4.14 FIP	23	SP-	4.14	16.6%	7.5%	2.7%	.337	3.89	14.1%	7.8%	401	-0.25	3.64	491	80
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.9%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	79
John Gast L 2013 · 4.15 FIP	24	SP	4.15	15.4%	9.6%	2.1%	.263	3.96	14.1%	6.2%	122	-0.19	3.96	134	79
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	79
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	79
Michel Gelabert L 2019 · 4.36 FIP	22	SP	4.36	18.7%	12.1%	2.4%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	107	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	48	19.6%	9.9%	1.10	4.66
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Cliff Politte ('06)	2.1	51	19.3%	9.6%	1.23	4.40
Jacob Barnes ('25)	1.7	48	22.0%	9.2%	1.15	4.79
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*