Juan Reyes
P
DSL Nationals
+0.2
WAR
Age 21
LHP
6'2" / 180 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
peak 0.6 · 2029
ERA4.29
FIP4.29
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.2%
BB%8.9%
K-BB%13.3%
IP44
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2029
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | DSL Nationals | 8 | 8 | 13 | 50 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 15.0% | 10.0% | 0.0% | 4.15 | 3.10 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | DSL Nationals | 12 | 12 | 60 | 230 | 52 | 13 | 2 | 15.4% | 7.1% | 0.8% | 2.40 | 3.12 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | MLB | WSH | 44 | — | 44 | 187 | 42 | 17 | 5 | 22.2% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 4.29 | 4.29 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | WSH | 46 | — | 46 | 196 | 46 | 17 | 5 | 23.2% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 4.19 | 4.13 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | WSH | 48 | — | 48 | 204 | 49 | 17 | 6 | 24.0% | 8.2% | 2.8% | 4.09 | 4.01 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | WSH | 49 | — | 49 | 209 | 51 | 17 | 6 | 24.5% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 4.01 | 3.94 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | WSH | 50 | — | 50 | 211 | 52 | 17 | 6 | 24.9% | 7.9% | 2.7% | 3.94 | 3.89 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 50 | — | 50 | 211 | 53 | 17 | 6 | 25.1% | 7.9% | 2.7% | 3.90 | 3.87 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 50 | — | 50 | 209 | 53 | 17 | 6 | 25.1% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 3.89 | 3.88 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 52 | 16 | 6 | 25.0% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 3.90 | 3.91 | +0.6 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 48 | — | 48 | 202 | 50 | 16 | 6 | 24.9% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 3.93 | 3.95 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 46 | — | 46 | 196 | 48 | 16 | 6 | 24.7% | 8.2% | 2.9% | 3.98 | 4.01 | +0.5 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 45 | — | 45 | 189 | 46 | 16 | 6 | 24.5% | 8.3% | 3.0% | 4.04 | 4.09 | +0.4 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 44 | 15 | 6 | 24.2% | 8.4% | 3.0% | 4.12 | 4.17 | +0.4 |
| 2038 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 41 | 15 | 5 | 23.9% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 4.21 | 4.27 | +0.3 |
| 2039 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 39 | — | 39 | 165 | 39 | 15 | 5 | 23.5% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 4.31 | 4.38 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 20 | 20 | 73 | 280 | 43 | 21 | 2 | 15.3% | 7.6% | 0.6% | 2.71 | 3.11 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 55 | 55 | 200 | 767 | 118 | 58 | 5 | 15.3% | 7.6% | 0.6% | 2.71 | 3.11 | +5.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Juan Reyes (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.29 | 22.2% | 8.9% | 2.8% | — | 4.02 | 23.9% | 15.7% | 144 | -0.27 | — | — | — |
| Thomas Ireland L 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.64 | 16.7% | 8.7% | 3.4% | .286 | 3.46 | 17.0% | 8.3% | 142 | -1.18 | 2.95 | 186 | 89 |
| Austin Warner L 2028 · 4.02 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.02 | 18.6% | 8.1% | 2.7% | .291 | 4.40 | 17.6% | 9.4% | 284 | +0.38 | 3.83 | 491 | 89 |
| Ronnie Glenn L 2027 · 3.47 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.47 | 20.9% | 9.9% | 1.6% | .330 | 5.04 | 11.1% | -2.6% | 171 | +1.57 | 3.47 | 212 | 89 |
| Denny Bentley L 2025 · 4.85 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.85 | 19.6% | 10.3% | 3.8% | .318 | 2.88 | 25.4% | 10.3% | 58 | -1.97 | 2.88 | 175 | 87 |
| Vance Tatum L 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 21 | SU | 5.04 | 17.2% | 9.7% | 3.9% | .319 | 5.07 | 15.6% | 2.3% | 85 | +0.03 | 4.89 | 116 | 87 |
| Hogan Harris L 2027 · 3.82 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.82 | 20.5% | 10.6% | 2.0% | .235 | 3.70 | 27.4% | 12.7% | 74 | -0.12 | 3.15 | 442 | 86 |
| Zach Morris L 2027 · 3.59 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.59 | 18.5% | 10.1% | 1.4% | .286 | 4.35 | 13.9% | 2.4% | 84 | +0.76 | 3.35 | 109 | 86 |
| Luis Paulino L 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.54 | 19.1% | 10.5% | 1.3% | .269 | 2.75 | 20.2% | 9.5% | 50 | -0.79 | 2.57 | 103 | 85 |
| Connor Curlis L 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.49 | 19.3% | 10.8% | 1.2% | .306 | 6.07 | 16.6% | 4.6% | 172 | +2.58 | 3.49 | 309 | 85 |
| Destin Dotson L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.89 | 22.3% | 12.2% | 2.1% | .288 | 5.76 | 23.0% | 3.1% | 48 | +1.87 | 2.90 | 113 | 85 |
| Daniel Zamora L 2028 · 3.56 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.56 | 20.3% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .294 | 2.75 | 24.7% | 16.8% | 135 | -0.81 | 2.15 | 310 | 85 |
| Jake Higginbotham L 2027 · 5.15 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.15 | 17.2% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .256 | 4.71 | 18.8% | 6.4% | 59 | -0.44 | 3.37 | 323 | 84 |
| Evan Shawver L 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.28 | 18.8% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .289 | 4.77 | 18.0% | 4.0% | 152 | +0.49 | 4.09 | 219 | 84 |
| Ryan Rolison L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.88 | 21.2% | 9.2% | 2.6% | .200 | 4.33 | 19.1% | 11.5% | 191 | +0.45 | 3.86 | 327 | 84 |
| Sean Mellen L 2028 · 4.59 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.59 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.2% | .364 | 4.01 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 55 | -0.58 | 4.01 | 101 | 84 |
| Josh Hendrickson L 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.81 | 21.8% | 6.7% | 3.1% | .250 | 4.70 | 19.3% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.89 | 3.81 | 255 | 84 |
| Johnathan Frebis L 2027 · 3.81 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.81 | 17.0% | 9.4% | 1.8% | .245 | 4.24 | 9.7% | -0.6% | 124 | +0.43 | 3.81 | 146 | 83 |
| Matt Osterberg L 2027 · 3.88 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.88 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 1.7% | .255 | 4.08 | 15.6% | 9.3% | 274 | +0.20 | 3.72 | 294 | 83 |
| Manuel Medina L 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 21 | SU | 5.04 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 4.4% | .319 | 2.81 | 24.2% | 15.4% | 78 | -2.23 | 1.26 | 157 | 83 |
| Avery Short L 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.75 | 20.1% | 11.4% | 3.5% | .346 | 4.75 | 15.0% | 6.4% | 271 | +0.00 | 4.23 | 387 | 83 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2032
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2037
First FA Year 2038
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2031 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.5 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.8M | +0.5 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2037 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $4M | $11M | +$7M | ||