Juan Reyes — OGILVIE

Juan Reyes P FCL Nationals

Age 21 LHP 6'2" / 180 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.7 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION41 act + 42 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112121vR 131

ERA4.94

FIP4.94

K%15.5%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%5.9%

ROS IP42

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 83 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†3050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$1M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2024	19	ROK	DSL Nationals	8	8	13	50	11	4	0	100%	1.6	15.0%	10.0%	5.0%	0.0%	4.15	3.10	—
2024	19	ROK	DSL Nationals	8	8	13	50	11	4	0	100%	1.6	22.0%	8.0%	14.0%	0.0%	4.15	2.33	—
2025	20	ROK	DSL Nationals	12	12	60	230	52	13	2	100%	5.0	15.4%	7.1%	8.3%	0.8%	2.40	3.11	—
2025	20	ROK	DSL Nationals	12	12	60	230	52	13	2	100%	5.0	22.6%	5.7%	17.0%	0.9%	2.40	2.45	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	ROK	FCL Nationals	11	9	41	169	50	19	2	82%	3.7	20.1%	14.1%	6.1%	1.7%	3.95	4.09	+0.2
ROS	21	MLB	WSH	9	9	42	177	27	17	5	100%	4.7	15.5%	9.6%	5.9%	2.8%	4.94	4.94	-0.2
ROS	21	MLB	WSH	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	15.5%	9.6%	5.9%	2.8%	4.94	4.94	—
2026 TOT	21	MLB	WSH	—	—	83	346	77	36	7	—	—	22.4%	10.4%	12.0%	2.0%	4.45	4.52	+0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	WSH	9	9	44	186	33	17	5	100%	4.9	17.5%	9.1%	8.4%	2.8%	4.77	4.69	-0.1
2028	23	MLB	WSH	9	9	46	193	36	17	5	100%	5.1	18.7%	8.8%	9.9%	2.8%	4.62	4.54	+0.0
2029	24	MLB	WSH	8	8	47	198	39	17	5	100%	5.9	19.5%	8.6%	10.9%	2.8%	4.50	4.44	+0.1
2030	25	MLB	WSH	8	8	48	201	40	17	5	100%	5.9	19.9%	8.5%	11.4%	2.7%	4.42	4.38	+0.1
2031	26	MLB	WSH	8	8	48	201	40	17	5	100%	5.9	20.1%	8.5%	11.7%	2.7%	4.38	4.35	+0.1
2032	27	MLB	WSH	8	8	47	198	40	17	6	100%	5.8	20.1%	8.5%	11.6%	2.8%	4.39	4.39	+0.1
2033	28	MLB	WSH	8	8	45	192	38	17	6	100%	5.7	20.0%	8.7%	11.3%	2.9%	4.44	4.48	+0.0
2027	22	MLB	WSH	4	4	22	93	16	8	3	100%	5.5	17.5%	9.1%	8.4%	2.8%	4.77	4.69	-0.0
2028	23	MLB	WSH	6	6	33	139	26	12	4	100%	5.5	18.7%	8.8%	9.9%	2.8%	4.62	4.54	+0.0
2029	24	MLB	WSH	7	7	39	165	32	14	5	100%	5.6	19.5%	8.6%	10.9%	2.8%	4.50	4.44	+0.1
2030	25	MLB	WSH	7	7	42	177	35	15	5	100%	6.0	19.9%	8.5%	11.4%	2.7%	4.42	4.38	+0.1
2031	26	MLB	WSH	7	7	43	182	37	15	5	100%	6.1	20.1%	8.5%	11.7%	2.7%	4.38	4.35	+0.1
2032	27	MLB	WSH	7	7	43	182	37	15	5	100%	6.1	20.1%	8.5%	11.6%	2.8%	4.39	4.39	+0.1
2033	28	MLB	WSH	7	7	42	177	35	15	5	100%	6.0	20.0%	8.7%	11.3%	2.9%	4.44	4.48	+0.0
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			46	46	265	1119	219	97	31	100%	5.8	19.6%	8.6%	11.0%	2.8%	4.48	4.07	+4.1
/ 200 IP	—			35	35	200	844	165	73	23	100%	5.7	19.6%	8.6%	11.0%	2.8%	4.48	4.07	+3.1
Career	—			31	29	114	449	77	45	5	94%	3.7	17.1%	10.0%	7.1%	1.0%	3.16	3.48	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—			54	51	200	788	135	79	8	94%	3.7	17.1%	10.0%	7.1%	1.0%	3.16	3.48	+4.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan Reyes (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.94	15.5%	9.6%	2.8%	—	4.55	18.6%	9.7%	137	-0.39	—	—	—
Packy Naughton L 2026 · 4.45 FIP	21	SP	4.45	17.0%	9.9%	2.8%	.323	3.57	15.9%	10.0%	311	-0.88	2.97	504	84
Scott Moss L 2026 · 4.40 FIP	21	SP	4.40	12.2%	10.9%	1.7%	.284	4.03	19.7%	9.0%	398	-0.37	3.68	457	84
Christian MacLeod L 2028 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	16.4%	10.5%	2.4%	.312	4.46	21.0%	7.7%	184	+0.10	3.84	249	84
Matt Tenuta L 2026 · 4.85 FIP	21	SP	4.85	12.0%	9.5%	2.8%	.294	4.53	15.2%	6.4%	278	-0.32	2.88	421	83
Evan Shawver L 2027 · 4.04 FIP	22	SP	4.04	18.8%	10.6%	2.2%	.289	4.64	18.0%	4.0%	152	+0.60	4.01	258	82
Rylan Kaufman L 2027 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	19.3%	12.1%	2.4%	.305	4.69	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.34	4.01	212	81
Adalberto Mejía L 2027 · 3.93 FIP	22	SP-	3.93	14.7%	9.4%	1.6%	.237	3.71	19.3%	11.8%	344	-0.22	3.39	427	81
Ryan Lawlor L 2026 · 4.17 FIP	21	SP	4.17	14.8%	13.0%	1.2%	.286	3.17	20.1%	8.1%	107	-1.00	2.24	201	80
Holden Capps L 2027 · 3.92 FIP	22	SP	3.92	12.8%	9.9%	1.2%	.358	3.17	18.8%	13.5%	115	-0.75	3.08	215	80
Justin Sinibaldi L 2028 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	15.9%	11.1%	3.0%	.286	6.01	14.0%	3.4%	72	+1.22	4.79	163	80
Alex Troop L 2027 · 4.27 FIP	22	SP-	4.27	15.0%	7.5%	2.7%	.339	4.00	20.8%	16.2%	106	-0.27	2.96	379	80
Juliandry Higuera L 2026 · 5.37 FIP	21	SP	5.37	12.2%	12.4%	3.1%	.297	4.28	16.9%	5.2%	87	-1.09	4.04	197	79
Jack O'Loughlin L 2026 · 3.83 FIP	21	SP	3.83	15.3%	10.4%	1.3%	.294	4.79	18.7%	7.7%	249	+0.96	3.83	348	79
Juan Amarante L 2026 · 4.08 FIP	21	SP	4.08	15.9%	11.1%	1.7%	.293	4.83	17.0%	-0.9%	17	+0.75	3.43	224	79
Avery Short L 2026 · 5.04 FIP	21	SP-	5.04	20.1%	11.4%	4.0%	.346	4.76	15.0%	6.4%	271	-0.28	4.31	460	78
Rob Zastryzny L 2028 · 5.24 FIP	23	SP	5.24	13.8%	10.9%	3.5%	.345	4.39	18.5%	9.1%	268	-0.85	3.26	634	78
Russell Smith L 2028 · 5.45 FIP	23	SP	5.45	16.0%	10.4%	4.3%	.272	4.52	21.2%	7.8%	107	-0.93	3.89	175	78
Hayden Frank L 2027 · 5.47 FIP	22	SP	5.47	12.4%	11.5%	3.6%	.377	5.29	17.2%	3.0%	53	-0.18	5.29	109	78
Luis Moncada L 2025 · 3.81 FIP	20	SP-	3.81	19.2%	12.0%	1.5%	.278	3.85	17.6%	5.7%	68	+0.04	3.81	296	78
Hunter Owen L 2027 · 4.38 FIP	22	SP	4.38	14.5%	8.7%	2.6%	.270	4.95	18.9%	8.4%	146	+0.57	4.06	248	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8	46	19.0%	8.8%	1.08	4.55
Shane Greene ('21)	7	56	21.4%	8.5%	1.16	4.67
Bryan Shaw ('23)	8	64	21.4%	9.4%	1.12	4.19
Jacob Barnes ('24)	7	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Nick Wittgren ('23)	8	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Luis Cessa ('23)	8	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Drew VerHagen ('23)	6	43	19.7%	9.4%	1.40	4.82