Bernard Mack — OGILVIE

Bernard Mack P FCL Cardinals

Age 21 LHP 6'3" / 160 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 30 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126135vR 143

ERA5.77

FIP5.77

K%21.9%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%1.9%

ROS IP30

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 30 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	15	0	17	77	23	11	1	0%	1.1	20.3%	17.9%	2.5%	2.0%	4.76	4.72	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	15	0	17	77	23	11	1	0%	1.1	29.9%	14.3%	15.6%	1.3%	4.76	3.10	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	17	0	23	98	21	17	0	0%	1.4	14.6%	21.7%	-7.1%	0.0%	3.13	4.62	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	17	0	23	98	21	17	0	0%	1.4	14.6%	21.7%	-7.1%	0.0%	3.13	4.62	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	17	0	23	98	21	17	0	0%	1.4	21.4%	17.3%	4.1%	0.0%	3.13	3.49	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	9	50	231	66	49	2	56%	3.1	19.9%	26.1%	-6.2%	1.1%	4.86	5.33	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	9	50	231	66	49	2	56%	3.1	19.9%	26.1%	-6.2%	1.1%	4.86	5.33	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	9	50	231	66	49	2	56%	3.1	28.6%	21.2%	7.4%	0.9%	4.86	3.92	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	STL	29	0	30	127	28	25	4	0%	1.0	21.9%	20.0%	1.9%	2.9%	5.77	5.77	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	STL	45	0	47	199	46	33	6	0%	1.0	22.9%	16.6%	6.3%	2.9%	5.39	5.23	-0.4
2029	23	MLB MLE	STL	47	0	49	207	49	30	6	0%	1.0	23.7%	14.4%	9.3%	2.8%	5.04	4.86	-0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	STL	22	0	23	97	22	16	3	0%	1.0	22.9%	16.6%	6.3%	2.9%	5.39	5.23	-0.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	STL	34	0	36	152	36	22	4	0%	1.1	23.7%	14.4%	9.3%	2.8%	5.04	4.86	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		56	0	59	249	58	38	7	0%	1.1	23.4%	15.3%	8.1%	2.8%	5.18	4.63	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	197	129	24	0%	1.1	23.4%	15.3%	8.1%	2.8%	5.18	4.63	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		48	9	90	406	76	95	4	19%	1.9	18.7%	23.5%	-4.8%	1.0%	4.40	5.04	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		107	20	200	902	168	212	9	19%	1.9	18.7%	23.5%	-4.8%	1.0%	4.40	5.04	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bernard Mack (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.77	21.9%	20.0%	2.9%	—	5.04	23.3%	7.8%	96	-0.73	—	—	—
Christian Chamberlain L 2022 · 6.42 FIP	23	SU	6.42	23.4%	21.7%	4.6%	.330	4.12	24.1%	5.4%	99	-2.30	3.91	148	81
Brayan Restituyo L 2023 · 5.53 FIP	21	SU	5.53	17.4%	17.3%	3.1%	.312	4.76	17.6%	5.6%	151	-0.77	3.66	239	81
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	81
Jeff Belge L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SU	4.91	24.0%	18.8%	2.7%	.343	3.68	24.2%	10.4%	131	-1.23	3.30	175	80
Roberto Medina L 2024 · 5.29 FIP	19	SW	5.29	18.5%	19.6%	2.3%	.254	5.91	15.1%	-2.7%	45	+0.62	3.87	109	79
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	79
Dillon Larsen L 2022 · 5.90 FIP	24	SU	5.90	21.7%	21.6%	3.5%	.277	4.65	18.0%	-4.1%	91	-1.25	4.04	120	79
Julian Bosnic L 2023 · 5.72 FIP	23	SU	5.72	22.5%	21.0%	3.4%	.206	4.74	19.1%	-0.1%	90	-0.98	4.31	136	79
CD Pelham L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	20	SU	4.77	18.8%	18.7%	1.6%	.286	4.00	20.4%	7.8%	109	-0.77	3.39	288	79
Yenfri Sosa L 2024 · 6.08 FIP	20	SU	6.08	19.0%	21.3%	3.4%	.309	4.41	21.7%	7.4%	38	-1.67	2.49	128	78
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	78
Adrian Almeida L 2016 · 5.65 FIP	21	SU	5.65	18.6%	15.3%	4.0%	.295	4.97	18.4%	-4.1%	119	-0.68	4.27	188	78
Colby Langford L 2024 · 5.34 FIP	22	SW	5.34	21.6%	22.5%	2.2%	.273	6.01	22.2%	-1.1%	110	+0.67	4.92	168	78
Triston Polley L 2021 · 4.88 FIP	24	SU	4.88	22.3%	20.0%	2.1%	.361	4.77	18.5%	5.2%	136	-0.11	4.15	151	78
Alex Robinson L 2016 · 5.59 FIP	21	SU	5.59	22.4%	26.9%	1.8%	.243	4.03	23.8%	8.8%	90	-1.56	3.69	135	77
Austin Hamilton L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.0%	15.6%	2.3%	.329	4.20	16.3%	8.9%	109	-0.72	4.02	135	77
Blake Townsend L 2022 · 5.83 FIP	21	SU	5.83	18.3%	17.5%	3.8%	.170	3.73	18.1%	8.4%	167	-2.10	3.34	305	77
Peter Bonilla L 2024 · 4.63 FIP	19	SU	4.63	20.9%	18.3%	1.8%	.250	6.24	19.5%	-5.4%	51	+1.61	4.27	134	76
Braian Salazar L 2024 · 4.71 FIP	19	SW	4.71	22.0%	20.2%	1.7%	.344	4.11	21.7%	5.1%	107	-0.60	3.58	158	76
Trevor Seidenberger L 2015 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	18.1%	14.3%	2.3%	.248	6.29	13.1%	-1.8%	52	+1.65	4.64	101	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.6	42	23.0%	16.6%	1.11	5.35
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Derrick Turnbow ('08)	1.3	64	23.4%	14.8%	0.87	4.30