Bernard Mack
P
FCL Cardinals
+0.1
WAR
Age 20
LHP
6'3" / 160 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.5 · 2030
ERA4.70
FIP4.70
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.6%
BB%12.5%
K-BB%10.2%
IP39
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2030
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Cardinals | 15 | 0 | 17 | 77 | 23 | 11 | 1 | 20.3% | 17.9% | 2.1% | 4.76 | 4.78 | +0.0 |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL Cardinals | 17 | 0 | 23 | 98 | 21 | 17 | 0 | 14.6% | 21.7% | 0.0% | 3.13 | 4.62 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 19 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 16 | 9 | 50 | 231 | 66 | 49 | 2 | 19.9% | 26.1% | 1.1% | 4.86 | 5.32 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | MLB | STL | 39 | — | 39 | 163 | 37 | 20 | 5 | 22.6% | 12.5% | 2.8% | 4.70 | 4.70 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | STL | 40 | — | 40 | 171 | 39 | 19 | 5 | 23.1% | 11.3% | 2.8% | 4.56 | 4.49 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | STL | 42 | — | 42 | 179 | 43 | 18 | 5 | 24.0% | 10.2% | 2.7% | 4.37 | 4.26 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | STL | 44 | — | 44 | 186 | 46 | 18 | 5 | 24.7% | 9.6% | 2.7% | 4.21 | 4.10 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | STL | 45 | — | 45 | 191 | 48 | 17 | 5 | 25.2% | 9.2% | 2.7% | 4.08 | 3.99 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | STL | 46 | — | 46 | 193 | 49 | 17 | 5 | 25.6% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 3.98 | 3.91 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | STL | 46 | — | 46 | 193 | 50 | 17 | 5 | 25.8% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 3.93 | 3.89 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | STL | 46 | — | 46 | 192 | 50 | 17 | 5 | 25.8% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 3.91 | 3.90 | +0.5 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | STL | 45 | — | 45 | 189 | 49 | 17 | 5 | 25.8% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 3.92 | 3.93 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB | STL | 44 | — | 44 | 185 | 47 | 17 | 5 | 25.6% | 9.0% | 2.8% | 3.95 | 3.98 | +0.5 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB | STL | 42 | — | 42 | 179 | 46 | 16 | 5 | 25.4% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 4.00 | 4.04 | +0.4 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB | STL | 41 | — | 41 | 173 | 44 | 16 | 5 | 25.2% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.07 | 4.11 | +0.4 |
| 2038 | 32 | MLB | STL | 39 | — | 39 | 166 | 41 | 16 | 5 | 24.9% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 4.15 | 4.20 | +0.3 |
| 2039 | 33 | MLB | STL | 38 | — | 38 | 159 | 39 | 15 | 5 | 24.6% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 4.24 | 4.30 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 48 | 9 | 90 | 406 | 76 | 95 | 4 | 18.7% | 23.5% | 1.0% | 4.40 | 5.04 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 107 | 20 | 200 | 902 | 169 | 211 | 9 | 18.7% | 23.5% | 1.0% | 4.40 | 5.04 | +0.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Bernard Mack (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.70 | 22.6% | 12.5% | 2.8% | — | 4.28 | 24.0% | 13.6% | 127 | -0.42 | — | — | — |
| Jagger Haynes L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.27 | 19.7% | 13.0% | 2.2% | .303 | 5.33 | 18.5% | 2.8% | 214 | +1.06 | 4.27 | 239 | 89 |
| Raúl Alcantara L 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.48 | 19.6% | 12.8% | 2.6% | .295 | 4.51 | 19.0% | 4.2% | 229 | +0.03 | 3.82 | 396 | 87 |
| Abdallah Aris L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.63 | 22.4% | 11.3% | 1.8% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 109 | 87 |
| Jonathan Hennigan L 2028 · 4.03 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.03 | 22.0% | 13.6% | 1.9% | .341 | 3.57 | 17.5% | 5.8% | 119 | -0.46 | 3.46 | 265 | 86 |
| Denny Bentley L 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.85 | 19.6% | 10.3% | 3.8% | .318 | 2.88 | 25.4% | 10.3% | 58 | -1.97 | 2.88 | 175 | 86 |
| Alex Ayala Jr. L 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.21 | 20.7% | 12.3% | 2.4% | .271 | 5.98 | 13.6% | -3.1% | 71 | +1.77 | 4.21 | 128 | 85 |
| Benony Robles L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.63 | 22.3% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .262 | 5.08 | 19.2% | 4.5% | 135 | +1.45 | 3.63 | 271 | 85 |
| Jay Groome L 2024 · 4.54 FIP | 18 | SU | 4.54 | 21.6% | 14.8% | 2.5% | .345 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.53 | 420 | 85 |
| Fernando Sanchez L 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.91 | 24.8% | 11.8% | 2.6% | .318 | 3.94 | 17.7% | 6.9% | 213 | +0.03 | 3.08 | 266 | 84 |
| Matt Osterberg L 2028 · 3.88 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.88 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 1.7% | .255 | 4.08 | 15.6% | 9.3% | 274 | +0.20 | 3.72 | 294 | 84 |
| Blake Townsend L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.97 | 26.7% | 11.2% | 3.1% | .286 | 3.98 | 18.5% | 4.8% | 96 | +0.01 | 3.33 | 200 | 84 |
| Keylan Killgore L 2028 · 4.24 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.24 | 20.7% | 12.7% | 2.3% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 161 | 83 |
| Hogan Harris L 2028 · 3.82 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.82 | 20.5% | 10.6% | 2.0% | .235 | 3.70 | 27.4% | 12.7% | 74 | -0.12 | 3.15 | 442 | 83 |
| Luis Moncada L 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.81 | 19.2% | 12.0% | 1.5% | .278 | 3.88 | 17.6% | 5.7% | 68 | +0.07 | 3.81 | 296 | 83 |
| Sean Mellen L 2029 · 4.59 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.59 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.2% | .364 | 4.01 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 55 | -0.58 | 4.01 | 101 | 83 |
| Taylor Hearn L 2027 · 3.97 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.97 | 26.1% | 10.6% | 3.2% | .347 | 4.00 | 22.3% | 11.7% | 236 | +0.03 | 3.74 | 572 | 83 |
| Seth Clark L 2029 · 4.22 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.22 | 22.5% | 15.0% | 2.0% | .287 | 5.22 | 18.4% | 0.6% | 82 | +1.00 | 4.22 | 128 | 82 |
| Sonny Vargas L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.45 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 3.4% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 165 | 82 |
| Pablo Aldonis L 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.29 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .324 | 2.64 | 21.9% | 13.1% | 68 | -1.65 | 1.89 | 108 | 82 |
| Sam Weatherly L 2028 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.04 | 24.0% | 12.8% | 2.5% | .323 | 4.14 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 41 | +0.10 | 4.04 | 158 | 82 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.5 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.5 | $3M | +$0.9M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $5M | $12M | +$7M | ||