Wilfred Alvarado

Wilfred Alvarado P Stockton Ports

Age 20 RHP 6'3" / 190 lbs A peak 0.3 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 31 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139131vR 123

ERA5.58

FIP5.58

K%16.0%

BB%15.0%

K-BB%1.0%

ROS IP32

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 31 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL3535

CMD3535

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	16	0	22	97	25	11	0	0%	1.4	17.5%	14.2%	3.4%	0.0%	5.32	3.42	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	16	0	22	97	25	11	0	0%	1.4	17.5%	14.2%	3.4%	0.0%	5.32	3.42	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Athletics	16	0	22	97	25	11	0	0%	1.4	25.8%	11.3%	14.4%	0.0%	5.32	2.33	—
2024	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	0	22	112	17	15	3	0%	1.5	10.5%	17.9%	-7.3%	0.0%	7.48	4.47	—
2024	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	0	22	112	17	15	3	0%	1.5	10.5%	17.9%	-7.3%	0.0%	7.48	4.47	—
2024	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	0	22	112	17	15	3	0%	1.5	15.2%	13.4%	1.8%	2.7%	7.48	5.41	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	55	237	62	25	3	0%	1.7	18.7%	12.6%	6.1%	1.5%	3.29	3.93	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	55	237	62	25	3	0%	1.7	18.7%	12.6%	6.1%	1.5%	3.29	3.93	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	55	237	62	25	3	0%	1.7	26.2%	10.5%	15.6%	1.3%	3.29	2.92	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Stockton Ports	35	0	44	208	48	34	4	0%	1.2	16.4%	19.7%	-3.3%	2.6%	4.95	5.63	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Stockton Ports	35	0	44	208	48	34	4	0%	1.2	16.4%	19.7%	-3.3%	2.6%	4.95	5.63	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	OAK	14	0	19	81	24	11	2	0%	1.4	29.6%	13.6%	16.0%	2.5%	3.26	3.67	—
2026	20	A RAW	OAK	21	0	24	127	24	23	2	0%	1.2	18.9%	18.1%	0.8%	1.6%	6.29	4.66	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	OAK	49	0	52	218	38	30	6	0%	1.1	17.4%	13.6%	3.8%	2.8%	5.34	5.26	-0.4
2028	22	MLB MLE	OAK	52	0	54	229	43	28	6	0%	1.0	18.8%	12.4%	6.3%	2.7%	5.09	4.97	-0.3
2027	21	MLB CTX	OAK	24	0	25	106	18	14	3	0%	1.0	17.4%	13.6%	3.8%	2.8%	5.34	5.26	-0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	OAK	38	0	40	169	32	21	5	0%	1.1	18.8%	12.4%	6.3%	2.7%	5.09	4.97	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		62	0	65	274	50	35	8	0%	1.0	18.2%	12.9%	5.3%	2.8%	5.19	4.70	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	154	108	25	0%	1.1	18.2%	12.9%	5.3%	2.8%	5.19	4.70	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		98	0	142	654	107	105	9	0%	1.4	16.4%	16.0%	0.4%	1.4%	4.75	4.49	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		138	0	200	921	151	147	13	0%	1.4	16.4%	16.0%	0.4%	1.4%	4.75	4.49	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Wilfred Alvarado (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.58	16.0%	15.0%	2.8%	—	5.11	18.1%	5.1%	106	-0.47	—	—	—
Alejandro Méndez R 2021 · 5.70 FIP	20	SU	5.70	14.6%	14.5%	3.6%	.321	5.60	15.8%	-7.5%	91	-0.10	4.65	136	91
Cory Thompson R 2017 · 5.42 FIP	22	SU	5.42	15.2%	15.7%	2.9%	.289	4.34	16.3%	10.6%	131	-1.08	3.59	218	90
Jesus Colina R 2023 · 5.30 FIP	18	SU	5.30	15.3%	15.2%	2.9%	.265	4.00	17.2%	7.6%	103	-1.30	3.82	128	89
Jonathan Jimenez R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	19	SU	5.41	16.4%	16.2%	3.0%	.333	5.09	14.1%	2.2%	178	-0.32	3.49	189	89
Nick Kuzia R 2017 · 5.18 FIP	21	SU	5.18	16.5%	15.2%	2.8%	.361	5.35	17.6%	6.6%	60	+0.17	4.54	231	89
Ocean Gabonia R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SU	5.04	15.4%	14.6%	2.5%	.283	3.29	19.1%	10.9%	91	-1.75	2.79	144	88
Gerson Moreno R 2016 · 4.48 FIP	20	SU	4.48	18.6%	14.8%	2.0%	.278	4.13	23.0%	9.1%	67	-0.35	3.44	349	88
Jesse Stallings R 2016 · 6.02 FIP	21	SU	6.02	13.2%	15.0%	3.9%	.296	4.10	11.6%	5.0%	128	-1.92	3.48	151	87
Tim Naughton R 2017 · 4.53 FIP	21	SU	4.53	17.9%	15.6%	1.8%	.312	3.58	20.7%	6.4%	83	-0.95	2.93	305	87
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	87
Luis Almonte R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	20	SU	4.51	15.5%	15.9%	1.3%	.286	2.93	25.7%	19.4%	52	-1.58	2.20	105	87
Cole Ayers R 2022 · 5.58 FIP	22	SU	5.58	13.0%	15.4%	2.9%	.305	4.01	21.2%	10.1%	152	-1.57	3.58	171	87
José Rodríguez R 2021 · 4.85 FIP	20	SU	4.85	14.2%	11.6%	2.7%	.310	2.74	25.0%	16.4%	132	-2.11	2.55	236	87
Elison Joseph R 2021 · 5.31 FIP	20	SU	5.31	17.4%	19.2%	2.3%	.254	4.55	23.5%	6.8%	133	-0.76	3.32	217	87
Brooks Crawford R 2019 · 4.78 FIP	22	SU	4.78	14.9%	13.7%	2.2%	.262	3.56	22.1%	14.5%	103	-1.22	2.50	296	86
Stefan Raeth R 2023 · 4.62 FIP	22	SU	4.62	18.0%	15.4%	2.0%	.309	4.73	17.5%	8.3%	124	+0.11	4.51	173	86
Devon Fisher R 2016 · 4.39 FIP	20	SU	4.39	16.5%	12.5%	2.0%	.333	5.76	15.1%	0.9%	88	+1.37	4.39	102	86
Tommy DeJuneas R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	21	SU	4.72	19.1%	15.5%	2.3%	.357	4.59	20.8%	4.9%	100	-0.13	3.93	178	86
Luis Ramirez R 2022 · 4.92 FIP	20	SU	4.92	14.0%	16.5%	1.7%	.273	5.05	15.6%	-1.9%	68	+0.13	3.72	123	86
Moises Palma R 2023 · 5.34 FIP	18	SU	5.34	14.3%	14.1%	3.0%	.272	3.93	13.9%	0.3%	64	-1.41	3.21	114	86

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	46	17.6%	13.5%	1.07	5.30
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10