Wilfred Alvarado
P
ACL Athletics
Age 20
RHP
6'3" / 190 lbs
ROK
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION27 act + 32 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 142132vR 123
ERA5.46
FIP5.46
K%16.0%
BB%14.1%
K-BB%1.9%
ROS IP32
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Athletics | 16 | 0 | 22 | 97 | 25 | 11 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 17.5% | 14.2% | 3.4% | 0.0% | 5.32 | 3.42 | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Athletics | 16 | 0 | 22 | 97 | 25 | 11 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 25.8% | 11.3% | 14.4% | 0.0% | 5.32 | 2.33 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 0 | 22 | 112 | 17 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 1.5 | 10.5% | 17.9% | -7.3% | 0.0% | 7.48 | 4.47 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 0 | 22 | 112 | 17 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 1.5 | 15.2% | 13.4% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 7.48 | 5.41 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 55 | 237 | 62 | 25 | 3 | 0% | 1.7 | 18.7% | 12.6% | 6.1% | 1.3% | 3.29 | 3.85 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 55 | 237 | 62 | 25 | 3 | 0% | 1.7 | 26.2% | 10.5% | 15.6% | 1.3% | 3.29 | 2.92 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | A | Stockton Ports | 21 | 0 | 27 | 123 | 31 | 23 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.1% | 17.0% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.73 | 5.45 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | OAK | 30 | 0 | 32 | 133 | 21 | 19 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.0% | 14.1% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 5.46 | 5.46 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 16.0% | 14.1% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 5.46 | 5.46 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 20 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 58 | 256 | 52 | 42 | 6 | — | — | 20.4% | 16.3% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 5.12 | 5.45 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | OAK | 32 | 0 | 33 | 140 | 24 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.4% | 12.9% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 5.24 | 5.17 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | OAK | 33 | 0 | 35 | 147 | 28 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.8% | 11.9% | 6.9% | 2.7% | 5.01 | 4.90 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | OAK | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 30 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.7% | 11.3% | 8.4% | 2.7% | 4.82 | 4.72 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | OAK | 15 | 0 | 16 | 68 | 12 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.4% | 12.9% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 5.24 | 5.17 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | OAK | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 20 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.8% | 11.9% | 6.9% | 2.7% | 5.01 | 4.90 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | OAK | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 25 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.7% | 11.3% | 8.4% | 2.7% | 4.82 | 4.72 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 69 | 0 | 72 | 304 | 57 | 36 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.9% | 11.9% | 7.0% | 2.7% | 4.98 | 4.50 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 158 | 100 | 22 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.9% | 11.9% | 7.0% | 2.7% | 4.98 | 4.50 | +2.1 | ||
| Career | — | 84 | 0 | 125 | 569 | 98 | 85 | 7 | 0% | 1.5 | 17.2% | 14.9% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 4.68 | 4.25 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 134 | 0 | 200 | 910 | 157 | 135 | 12 | 0% | 1.5 | 17.2% | 14.9% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 4.68 | 4.25 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Wilfred Alvarado (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.46 | 16.0% | 14.1% | 2.8% | — | 4.92 | 18.7% | 6.6% | 104 | -0.54 | — | — | — |
| Alejandro Méndez R 2026 · 5.81 FIP | 20 | SU | 5.81 | 14.6% | 14.5% | 3.9% | .321 | 5.56 | 15.8% | -7.5% | 91 | -0.25 | 4.70 | 136 | 89 |
| Cory Thompson R 2028 · 5.42 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.42 | 15.2% | 15.7% | 2.9% | .289 | 4.28 | 16.3% | 10.6% | 131 | -1.14 | 3.48 | 218 | 89 |
| Devon Fisher R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.39 | 16.5% | 12.5% | 2.0% | .333 | 5.83 | 15.1% | 0.9% | 88 | +1.44 | 4.39 | 102 | 89 |
| José Rodríguez R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.63 | 14.2% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .310 | 2.72 | 25.0% | 16.4% | 132 | -1.91 | 2.54 | 205 | 89 |
| Nick Kuzia R 2027 · 5.18 FIP | 21 | SU | 5.18 | 16.5% | 15.2% | 2.8% | .361 | 5.13 | 17.6% | 6.6% | 60 | -0.05 | 4.55 | 231 | 88 |
| Ocean Gabonia R 2028 · 4.94 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.94 | 15.4% | 14.6% | 2.4% | .283 | 3.31 | 19.1% | 10.9% | 91 | -1.63 | 2.79 | 144 | 88 |
| Tyler Smith R 2028 · 5.30 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.30 | 17.8% | 14.3% | 3.4% | .329 | 4.45 | 19.8% | 7.8% | 94 | -0.85 | 3.48 | 121 | 88 |
| Michael Perez R 2027 · 5.68 FIP | 21 | SU | 5.68 | 18.3% | 16.1% | 3.8% | .296 | 4.58 | 23.6% | 8.4% | 109 | -1.10 | 4.35 | 131 | 87 |
| Brooks Crawford R 2028 · 4.78 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.78 | 14.9% | 13.7% | 2.2% | .262 | 3.46 | 22.1% | 14.5% | 103 | -1.32 | 2.50 | 296 | 87 |
| Gerson Moreno R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.35 | 18.6% | 14.8% | 1.7% | .278 | 3.94 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 67 | -0.41 | 3.55 | 349 | 87 |
| Stefan Raeth R 2028 · 4.79 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.79 | 18.0% | 15.4% | 2.3% | .309 | 4.76 | 17.5% | 8.3% | 124 | -0.03 | 4.36 | 173 | 87 |
| Jesse Stallings R 2027 · 6.02 FIP | 21 | SU | 6.02 | 13.2% | 15.0% | 3.9% | .296 | 4.01 | 11.6% | 5.0% | 128 | -2.01 | 3.47 | 151 | 86 |
| Tim Naughton R 2027 · 4.53 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.53 | 17.9% | 15.6% | 1.8% | .312 | 3.63 | 20.7% | 6.4% | 83 | -0.90 | 2.88 | 305 | 86 |
| Austin Mason R 2027 · 4.41 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.41 | 17.1% | 11.6% | 2.4% | .289 | 4.07 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 151 | -0.34 | 3.60 | 179 | 86 |
| Tommy DeJuneas R 2027 · 4.72 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.72 | 19.1% | 15.5% | 2.3% | .357 | 4.55 | 20.8% | 4.9% | 100 | -0.17 | 3.90 | 178 | 86 |
| Aneudy Duarte R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.79 | 17.1% | 11.7% | 3.0% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | 102 | 86 |
| Luis Almonte R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.51 | 15.5% | 15.9% | 1.3% | .286 | 3.04 | 25.7% | 19.4% | 52 | -1.47 | 2.24 | 105 | 86 |
| Ender Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.63 | 13.7% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 101 | 86 |
| Brayan Cabello R 2026 · 5.44 FIP | 20 | SU | 5.44 | 16.1% | 12.4% | 3.9% | .262 | 4.13 | 11.4% | 1.9% | 50 | -1.31 | 3.40 | 138 | 86 |
| Cole Ayers R 2028 · 5.49 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.49 | 13.0% | 15.4% | 2.8% | .305 | 3.96 | 21.2% | 10.1% | 152 | -1.53 | 3.52 | 171 | 86 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 34 | 18.0% | 12.5% | 1.06 | 5.12 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |