Wilfred Alvarado
P
Stockton Ports
+0.0
WAR
Age 20
RHP
6'3" / 190 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.6 · 2031
ERA4.48
FIP4.48
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.8%
BB%10.2%
K-BB%11.6%
IP40
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2031
K†5060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Athletics | 16 | 0 | 22 | 97 | 25 | 11 | 0 | 17.5% | 14.2% | 0.0% | 5.32 | 3.42 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 18 | A | Stockton Ports | 14 | 0 | 22 | 112 | 17 | 15 | 3 | 10.5% | 17.9% | 0.0% | 7.48 | 4.47 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 19 | A | Stockton Ports | 33 | 0 | 55 | 237 | 62 | 25 | 3 | 18.7% | 12.6% | 1.5% | 3.29 | 3.92 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | A | Stockton Ports | 3 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 1 | 5 | 0 | — | — | — | 11.57 | — | — |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | OAK | 40 | — | 40 | 170 | 37 | 17 | 5 | 21.9% | 10.2% | 2.8% | 4.48 | 4.48 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 20 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 43 | 185 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 20.6% | 12.1% | 2.6% | 4.87 | 4.23 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | OAK | 42 | — | 42 | 178 | 40 | 17 | 5 | 22.4% | 9.6% | 2.8% | 4.38 | 4.33 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | OAK | 44 | — | 44 | 187 | 44 | 17 | 5 | 23.4% | 9.0% | 2.7% | 4.24 | 4.15 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | OAK | 46 | — | 46 | 194 | 47 | 17 | 5 | 24.1% | 8.6% | 2.7% | 4.11 | 4.02 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | OAK | 47 | — | 47 | 199 | 49 | 17 | 5 | 24.6% | 8.4% | 2.7% | 4.01 | 3.93 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | OAK | 48 | — | 48 | 201 | 50 | 17 | 5 | 25.0% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 3.93 | 3.88 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | OAK | 48 | — | 48 | 201 | 51 | 17 | 5 | 25.2% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 3.88 | 3.85 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 47 | — | 47 | 200 | 50 | 16 | 5 | 25.2% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 3.87 | 3.86 | +0.6 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 47 | — | 47 | 197 | 50 | 16 | 5 | 25.2% | 8.3% | 2.7% | 3.88 | 3.89 | +0.6 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 46 | — | 46 | 193 | 48 | 16 | 5 | 25.1% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 3.91 | 3.94 | +0.5 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 44 | — | 44 | 187 | 46 | 16 | 5 | 24.9% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 3.96 | 4.00 | +0.5 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB | OAK | 43 | — | 43 | 180 | 44 | 15 | 5 | 24.6% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 4.03 | 4.07 | +0.4 |
| 2038 | 32 | MLB | OAK | 41 | — | 41 | 173 | 42 | 15 | 5 | 24.3% | 8.7% | 3.0% | 4.11 | 4.16 | +0.4 |
| 2039 | 33 | MLB | OAK | 39 | — | 39 | 166 | 40 | 15 | 5 | 24.0% | 8.9% | 3.1% | 4.20 | 4.26 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 66 | 0 | 101 | 461 | 74 | 69 | 3 | 16.1% | 14.9% | 0.8% | 4.83 | 4.04 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 131 | 0 | 200 | 916 | 147 | 137 | 6 | 16.1% | 14.9% | 0.8% | 4.83 | 4.04 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Wilfred Alvarado (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.48 | 21.9% | 10.2% | 2.8% | — | 4.16 | 23.3% | 14.3% | 132 | -0.32 | — | — | — |
| Eccel Correa R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.34 | 19.4% | 11.9% | 2.5% | .316 | 4.01 | 14.2% | 3.6% | 122 | -0.33 | 3.99 | 157 | 96 |
| Brandon Komar R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.74 | 17.7% | 11.6% | 3.0% | .327 | 4.93 | 16.7% | 5.7% | 198 | +0.19 | 3.03 | 538 | 92 |
| Tyler Gray R 2027 · 4.49 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.49 | 18.2% | 11.7% | 2.6% | .333 | 4.39 | 11.9% | 3.6% | 72 | -0.10 | 4.39 | 119 | 91 |
| Felix Arronde R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.42 | 20.2% | 12.1% | 2.7% | .275 | 4.19 | 16.1% | 7.1% | 239 | -0.23 | 4.15 | 337 | 91 |
| Audry Lugo R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.05 | 18.5% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .247 | 5.31 | 15.6% | -0.4% | 77 | +1.26 | 4.05 | 113 | 90 |
| Jordan Mikel R 2028 · 4.49 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.49 | 20.5% | 12.5% | 2.8% | .330 | 4.17 | 19.2% | 9.0% | 109 | -0.32 | 3.05 | 195 | 90 |
| Austin Mason R 2027 · 4.41 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.41 | 17.1% | 11.6% | 2.4% | .289 | 4.06 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 151 | -0.35 | 3.60 | 179 | 89 |
| Alix Hernandez R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.40 | 21.7% | 13.7% | 2.5% | .300 | 3.49 | 29.1% | 15.7% | 14 | -0.91 | 3.49 | 107 | 89 |
| Blake Workman R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.00 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .307 | 3.94 | 23.8% | 19.5% | 105 | -0.06 | 3.11 | 213 | 89 |
| Gabe Bierman R 2027 · 4.83 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.83 | 21.3% | 11.8% | 3.7% | .277 | 4.51 | 16.2% | 4.0% | 187 | -0.32 | 4.03 | 266 | 89 |
| Joshua Quezada R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.38 | 18.3% | 11.7% | 2.4% | .293 | 4.30 | 15.8% | 7.4% | 35 | -0.08 | 3.53 | 116 | 89 |
| Alec Kisena R 2025 · 4.01 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.01 | 17.6% | 11.8% | 1.7% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 248 | 88 |
| Jeremy Beasley R 2027 · 4.71 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.71 | 19.5% | 11.6% | 3.3% | .273 | 4.09 | 17.7% | 8.7% | 234 | -0.62 | 3.17 | 337 | 88 |
| Logan Lombana R 2027 · 4.63 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.63 | 16.9% | 10.0% | 3.1% | .315 | 4.01 | 15.7% | 8.1% | 123 | -0.62 | 3.80 | 155 | 88 |
| Aneudy Duarte R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.79 | 17.1% | 11.7% | 3.0% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | 102 | 88 |
| Luis Alvarado R 2027 · 5.24 FIP | 21 | SU | 5.24 | 20.2% | 12.4% | 4.2% | .276 | 5.18 | 18.7% | 4.4% | 140 | -0.06 | 4.91 | 162 | 88 |
| Kobe Robinson R 2027 · 4.49 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.49 | 23.2% | 14.3% | 2.8% | .296 | 3.44 | 18.8% | 4.9% | 84 | -1.05 | 2.98 | 107 | 88 |
| Jharold Clemente R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 20 | SU | 5.08 | 17.5% | 13.6% | 3.1% | .258 | 5.28 | 13.3% | 4.3% | 92 | +0.20 | 3.92 | 116 | 87 |
| Ulices Campos R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.60 | 17.9% | 11.5% | 2.8% | .253 | 5.37 | 12.0% | 1.0% | 65 | +0.77 | 4.11 | 153 | 87 |
| Kyle Marman R 2028 · 3.97 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.97 | 22.2% | 12.8% | 2.0% | .270 | 5.16 | 22.5% | 8.4% | 71 | +1.19 | 3.97 | 117 | 87 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Pre-Arb | $1M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2034 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2035 | Arb-2 | $1M | +0.5 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $5M | $14M | +$10M | ||