José Rodríguez

José Rodríguez P Buffalo Bisons

Age 25 RHP 6'6" / 200 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.4 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION37 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 95

ERA4.13

FIP4.13

K%28.9%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%17.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 43 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$7M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6565

CTRL3535

CMD6060

K†6565

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2031	Arb-1	$0.4M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.3M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	20	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	15	0	18	86	18	8	2	0%	1.2	14.2%	11.6%	2.6%	2.7%	5.40	4.85	—
2021	20	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Bautista	15	0	18	86	18	8	2	0%	1.2	20.9%	9.3%	11.6%	2.3%	5.40	3.86	—
2022	21	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	17	0	19	68	30	5	1	0%	1.1	30.0%	9.2%	20.8%	2.1%	0.47	2.89	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Mega	17	0	19	68	30	5	1	0%	1.1	44.1%	7.4%	36.8%	1.5%	0.47	1.42	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	0	25	106	33	3	2	0%	1.2	21.5%	3.8%	17.7%	1.4%	5.11	2.55	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	0	25	106	33	3	2	0%	1.2	21.5%	3.8%	17.7%	1.4%	5.11	2.55	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	0	25	106	33	3	2	0%	1.2	31.1%	2.8%	28.3%	1.9%	5.11	1.84	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	8	91	383	126	32	3	32%	3.6	24.9%	9.7%	15.2%	0.9%	3.38	2.75	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	8	91	383	126	32	3	32%	3.6	24.9%	9.7%	15.2%	0.9%	3.38	2.75	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	8	91	383	126	32	3	32%	3.6	32.9%	8.4%	24.5%	0.8%	3.38	1.81	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	2	54	246	84	34	8	4%	1.2	28.2%	13.1%	15.1%	3.8%	5.50	4.46	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	2	54	246	84	34	8	4%	1.2	28.2%	13.1%	15.1%	3.8%	5.50	4.46	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	2	54	246	84	34	8	4%	1.2	34.1%	13.8%	20.3%	3.3%	5.50	3.80	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	27	3	37	156	49	21	1	11%	1.4	23.6%	12.5%	11.1%	0.8%	3.44	3.13	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	27	3	37	156	49	21	1	11%	1.4	23.6%	12.5%	11.1%	0.8%	3.44	3.13	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	ROK RAW	TOR	4	0	5	19	10	2	0	0%	1.3	52.6%	10.5%	42.1%	0.0%	3.38	-0.01	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	TOR	23	3	31	137	39	19	1	13%	1.4	28.5%	13.9%	14.6%	0.7%	3.45	2.85	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	TOR	6	0	6	25	7	3	1	0%	1.0	28.9%	11.0%	17.9%	3.1%	4.13	4.13	+0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	TOR	—	—	43	181	56	24	2	—	—	31.1%	13.1%	17.9%	1.0%	3.53	3.26	+0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	TOR	78	0	82	345	98	37	11	0%	1.0	28.4%	10.7%	17.8%	3.1%	4.13	4.12	+0.4
2028	27	MLB MLE	TOR	77	0	80	339	95	36	11	0%	1.0	27.9%	10.5%	17.4%	3.1%	4.16	4.17	+0.4
2029	28	MLB MLE	TOR	74	0	78	329	97	32	11	0%	1.1	29.5%	9.7%	19.8%	3.2%	4.05	3.98	+0.5
2030	29	MLB MLE	TOR	71	0	74	315	92	31	11	0%	1.0	29.1%	9.9%	19.2%	3.4%	4.10	4.12	+0.4
2031	30	MLB MLE	TOR	67	0	70	296	85	30	11	0%	1.0	28.8%	10.2%	18.5%	3.6%	4.22	4.30	+0.2
2027	26	MLB CTX	TOR	37	0	39	165	47	18	5	0%	1.1	28.4%	10.7%	17.8%	3.1%	4.13	4.12	+0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	TOR	50	0	53	224	63	24	7	0%	1.1	27.9%	10.5%	17.4%	3.1%	4.16	4.17	+0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	TOR	57	0	60	253	75	25	8	0%	1.1	29.5%	9.7%	19.8%	3.2%	4.05	3.98	+0.4
2030	29	MLB CTX	TOR	59	0	62	262	76	26	9	0%	1.1	29.1%	9.9%	19.2%	3.4%	4.10	4.12	+0.3
2031	30	MLB CTX	TOR	58	0	61	258	74	26	9	0%	1.1	28.8%	10.2%	18.5%	3.6%	4.22	4.30	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		263	0	276	1164	335	118	38	0%	1.0	28.8%	10.2%	18.6%	3.3%	4.13	3.76	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	243	86	28	0%	1.1	28.8%	10.2%	18.6%	3.3%	4.13	3.76	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		149	13	243	1045	257	109	19	9%	1.6	24.6%	10.4%	14.1%	1.9%	3.96	3.37	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		122	11	200	859	211	90	16	9%	1.6	24.6%	10.4%	14.1%	1.9%	3.96	3.37	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
José Rodríguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.13	28.9%	11.0%	3.1%	—	4.09	28.6%	18.3%	240	-0.04	—	—	—
Steven Wilson R 2019 · 3.99 FIP	24	SU	3.99	27.2%	10.7%	3.3%	.271	3.81	29.3%	19.9%	92	-0.18	3.64	328	89
Lucas Wepf R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SU	3.62	27.6%	10.7%	2.7%	.323	3.97	26.2%	13.8%	136	+0.35	2.90	195	87
Zac Leigh R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	28.1%	11.7%	3.0%	.282	4.58	19.9%	3.7%	131	+0.74	3.70	201	86
Brad Boxberger R 2015 · 3.93 FIP	27	SU	3.93	27.3%	10.0%	3.4%	.280	4.09	28.5%	17.2%	107	+0.16	3.01	363	84
Zach Greene R 2022 · 4.39 FIP	25	SU	4.39	29.3%	11.7%	4.2%	.268	5.06	15.7%	0.8%	28	+0.67	2.10	172	83
Simon Castro R 2015 · 3.28 FIP	27	SU	3.28	26.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.320	3.58	26.0%	17.6%	128	+0.30	3.01	185	83
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	159	83
Shane Smith R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	23	SU	3.52	28.1%	10.4%	2.7%	.259	3.59	22.9%	13.1%	284	+0.07	3.01	342	83
Tyler Schoff R 2023 · 3.69 FIP	24	SU	3.69	25.2%	8.7%	3.0%	.315	4.26	16.1%	6.4%	75	+0.57	3.69	190	83
Alex Cook R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	22	SU	4.04	26.1%	10.8%	3.2%	.266	3.76	21.7%	13.9%	96	-0.28	2.93	162	82
Randall Delgado R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	25	SU	3.61	23.7%	10.1%	2.2%	.284	3.78	20.3%	12.4%	167	+0.17	3.09	290	82
Jackson Kelley R 2023 · 3.80 FIP	23	SU	3.80	26.5%	13.1%	2.3%	.313	3.65	21.6%	10.7%	165	-0.15	3.21	218	82
Magnus Ellerts R 2023 · 3.61 FIP	22	SU	3.61	29.5%	11.5%	2.8%	.325	3.98	27.0%	10.2%	118	+0.37	3.56	159	82
Mitchell Stumpo R 2021 · 3.97 FIP	25	SU	3.97	25.6%	8.0%	3.7%	.299	5.27	22.4%	6.8%	121	+1.30	3.97	158	82
Jake Smith R 2015 · 3.11 FIP	25	SU	3.11	28.1%	7.5%	2.6%	.243	4.69	19.3%	-1.7%	26	+1.58	3.11	110	82
Matt Seelinger R 2019 · 3.13 FIP	24	SU	3.13	27.9%	10.3%	2.0%	.358	4.78	24.9%	9.1%	103	+1.65	3.13	368	81
Maikel Cleto R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	26	SU	3.79	25.8%	12.1%	2.4%	.214	3.13	25.0%	15.3%	55	-0.66	2.59	156	81
Connor Brogdon R 2019 · 3.64 FIP	24	SU	3.64	29.7%	8.8%	3.5%	.236	3.37	23.6%	17.2%	102	-0.27	2.98	401	81
J.B. Wendelken R 2018 · 3.31 FIP	25	SU	3.31	29.5%	9.5%	2.7%	.286	3.78	23.3%	14.1%	140	+0.47	3.08	393	81
Jon Edwards R 2015 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	31.7%	13.1%	2.4%	.264	2.40	30.3%	22.6%	30	-1.00	2.40	132	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	76	28.8%	10.4%	1.25	4.13
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Joe Jiménez ('24)	1.9	53	29.8%	8.6%	1.11	4.06
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Brad Peacock ('19)	1.6	80	28.7%	9.2%	1.18	3.48
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63