Joel Garcia

P Fort Myers Mighty Mussels

Age 23 RHP 5'10" / 165 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.7 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	ROKMIN	6	5	18	1.50	2.04	23.5%	0.0%	—	K 16.0% · BB 0.0% · FIP 3.02
2025	21	MIX2 levels	15	15	54	6.13	2.90	24.5%	7.8%	—	K 16.9% · BB 9.5% · FIP 4.16
2026	22	AMIN	2	2	7	6.14	1.87	25.0%	8.3%	—	K 25.0% · BB 8.3% · FIP 2.04
2027PROJ	23	MLBMIN	12	12	62	4.77	4.77	17.8%	9.1%	0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBMIN	5	5	27	4.67	4.63	19.0%	8.8%	0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBMIN	7	7	42	4.58	4.54	19.7%	8.6%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control45Command50

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 4, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 89%

CompsTanner Hall (age 22) · Nick Fraze (age 23) · Andrew Quezada (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.77

FIP4.77

K%17.8%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%8.8%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	11	2	31	144	39	15	2	18%	2.8	18.4%	13.0%	5.4%	1.9%	4.88	4.26	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Twins	11	2	31	144	39	15	2	18%	2.8	27.1%	10.4%	16.7%	1.4%	4.88	2.88	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	6	5	18	68	16	0	1	83%	3.0	16.0%	0.0%	16.0%	2.3%	1.50	3.02	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	6	5	18	68	16	0	1	83%	3.0	16.0%	0.0%	16.0%	2.3%	1.50	3.02	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	6	5	18	68	16	0	1	83%	3.0	23.5%	0.0%	23.5%	1.5%	1.50	2.04	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	15	54	245	60	19	4	100%	3.6	16.9%	9.5%	7.4%	2.3%	6.13	4.16	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	15	54	245	60	19	4	100%	3.6	16.9%	9.5%	7.4%	2.3%	6.13	4.16	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	15	54	245	60	19	4	100%	3.6	24.5%	7.8%	16.7%	1.6%	6.13	2.90	—
2026	22	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	2	2	7	36	9	3	0	100%	3.7	25.0%	8.3%	16.7%	0.0%	6.14	2.04	—
2026	22	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	2	2	7	36	9	3	0	100%	3.7	25.0%	8.3%	16.7%	0.0%	6.14	2.04	—
2026	22	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	2	2	7	36	9	3	0	100%	3.7	25.0%	8.3%	16.7%	0.0%	6.14	1.87	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	MIN	12	12	62	262	47	24	8	100%	5.2	17.8%	9.1%	8.8%	3.0%	4.77	4.77	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	MIN	11	11	63	266	51	23	8	100%	5.7	19.0%	8.8%	10.2%	3.0%	4.66	4.62	+0.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	MIN	11	11	64	270	53	23	8	100%	5.8	19.7%	8.6%	11.1%	3.0%	4.57	4.53	+0.3
2030	26	MLB MLE	MIN	11	11	64	270	54	23	8	100%	5.8	20.1%	8.6%	11.5%	3.0%	4.52	4.50	+0.3
2031	27	MLB MLE	MIN	10	10	63	266	54	23	8	100%	6.3	20.2%	8.7%	11.5%	3.0%	4.53	4.53	+0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	MIN	5	5	27	114	22	10	3	100%	5.4	19.0%	8.8%	10.2%	3.0%	4.67	4.63	+0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	MIN	7	7	42	177	35	15	5	100%	6.0	19.7%	8.6%	11.1%	3.0%	4.58	4.54	+0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	MIN	8	8	51	215	43	18	6	100%	6.4	20.1%	8.6%	11.5%	3.0%	4.53	4.51	+0.2
2031	27	MLB CTX	MIN	9	9	54	228	46	20	7	100%	6.0	20.2%	8.7%	11.5%	3.0%	4.54	4.54	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		29	29	174	733	145	63	22	100%	6.0	19.8%	8.6%	11.2%	3.0%	4.57	4.16	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	167	73	25	100%	5.9	19.8%	8.6%	11.2%	3.0%	4.57	4.16	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		34	24	111	493	88	45	10	71%	3.3	17.8%	9.1%	8.7%	2.0%	5.03	3.88	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	43	200	888	158	81	18	71%	3.3	17.8%	9.1%	8.7%	2.0%	5.03	3.88	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joel Garcia (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.77	17.8%	9.1%	3.0%	—	4.55	19.6%	10.9%	191	-0.22	—	—	—
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	90
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.69	18.1%	10.4%	162	+0.20	3.86	278	87
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	87
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	86
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	86
Dustin McGowan R 2005 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	16.6%	8.3%	3.4%	.286	3.65	19.1%	10.3%	308	-0.97	3.36	690	86
TJ Nichols R 2024 · 3.71 FIP	22	SP-	3.71	17.0%	9.0%	1.6%	.310	5.34	20.9%	12.4%	223	+1.63	3.71	295	85
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	85
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	84
Nick Dean R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.47	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.39	2.73	202	84
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.56	18.8%	9.0%	178	+1.83	3.73	274	84
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	84
Zach Miner R 2006 · 4.35 FIP	24	SP-	4.35	14.8%	7.8%	2.8%	.300	4.24	13.8%	4.6%	264	-0.11	3.55	386	84
J.C. Flowers R 2021 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP-	3.59	21.3%	8.7%	2.1%	.330	4.84	16.4%	2.8%	184	+1.25	3.59	281	83
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	83
Cale Lansville R 2024 · 3.90 FIP	21	SP-	3.90	15.1%	7.7%	2.0%	.325	5.07	12.8%	0.1%	38	+1.17	3.90	113	83
Levi Thomas R 2021 · 5.22 FIP	23	SP-	5.22	18.1%	11.9%	3.9%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.06	5.16	116	83
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	83
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	82
Logan Martin R 2024 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	16.9%	8.9%	2.1%	.278	4.58	17.6%	5.0%	140	+0.63	3.95	242	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	63	19.4%	8.7%	1.16	4.61
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Juan Gutierrez ('14)	1.4	57	19.4%	8.4%	1.04	4.49
Trevor Gott ('15-'23, -1 WAR*)	1.2	61	18.5%*	8.4%*	1.01*	4.85*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*