Justin Chambers

P Great Lakes Loons

Age 21 LHP 6'3" / 212 lbs A+ peak 0.2 · 2032

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	18	ROKLAD	4	3	4	17.18	5.55	15.0%	25.0%	—	K 15.0% · BB 25.0% · FIP 5.00
2025	19	MIX2 levels	21	1	35	3.09	2.10	36.0%	13.3%	—	K 25.4% · BB 16.2% · FIP 3.44
2026	20	A+LAD	39	1	51	6.00	4.14	27.1%	18.2%	—	K 20.9% · BB 21.0% · FIP 5.10
2027PROJ	21	MLBLAD	30	0	32	5.50	5.50	21.8%	18.5%	-0.3
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBLAD	23	0	24	5.16	5.02	22.9%	15.5%	-0.1
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBLAD	34	0	36	4.85	4.69	23.6%	13.6%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 90%

CompsJeff Belge (age 23) · CD Pelham (age 20) · Brendan Nail (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121129vR 138

ERA5.50

FIP5.50

K%21.8%

BB%18.5%

K-BB%3.3%

Proj IP32

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 32 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Dodgers	4	3	4	20	3	5	0	75%	0.9	15.0%	25.0%	-10.0%	0.0%	17.18	5.00	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Dodgers	4	3	4	20	3	5	0	75%	0.9	15.0%	25.0%	-10.0%	0.0%	17.18	5.00	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	ACL Dodgers	4	3	4	20	3	5	0	75%	0.9	15.0%	25.0%	-10.0%	0.0%	17.18	5.55	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	1	35	150	54	20	1	5%	1.7	25.4%	16.2%	9.2%	0.8%	3.09	3.44	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	1	35	150	54	20	1	5%	1.7	25.4%	16.2%	9.2%	0.8%	3.09	3.44	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	1	35	150	54	20	1	5%	1.7	36.0%	13.3%	22.7%	0.7%	3.09	2.10	—
2026	20	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	39	1	51	247	67	45	4	3%	1.3	20.9%	21.0%	-0.1%	2.0%	6.00	5.10	—
2026	20	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	39	1	51	247	67	45	4	3%	1.3	20.9%	21.0%	-0.1%	2.0%	6.00	5.10	—
2026	20	A+ RAW	Great Lakes Loons	39	1	51	247	67	45	4	3%	1.3	27.1%	18.2%	8.9%	1.6%	6.00	4.14	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	LAD	30	0	32	135	29	25	4	0%	1.1	21.8%	18.5%	3.3%	2.8%	5.50	5.50	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	LAD	46	0	48	204	47	32	6	0%	1.0	22.9%	15.5%	7.3%	2.7%	5.16	5.02	-0.3
2029	23	MLB MLE	LAD	48	0	50	211	50	29	6	0%	1.0	23.6%	13.6%	10.1%	2.7%	4.85	4.69	-0.1
2030	24	MLB MLE	LAD	49	0	51	216	52	26	6	0%	1.0	24.2%	12.2%	11.9%	2.7%	4.61	4.47	+0.0
2031	25	MLB MLE	LAD	49	0	52	219	54	25	6	0%	1.1	24.5%	11.4%	13.1%	2.7%	4.44	4.32	+0.1
2032	26	MLB MLE	LAD	49	0	52	219	54	25	6	0%	1.1	24.7%	11.3%	13.4%	2.7%	4.36	4.30	+0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	LAD	23	0	24	101	23	16	3	0%	1.0	22.9%	15.5%	7.3%	2.7%	5.16	5.02	-0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	LAD	34	0	36	152	36	21	4	0%	1.1	23.6%	13.6%	10.1%	2.7%	4.85	4.69	-0.1
2030	24	MLB CTX	LAD	40	0	42	177	43	22	5	0%	1.1	24.2%	12.2%	11.9%	2.7%	4.61	4.47	+0.0
2031	25	MLB CTX	LAD	44	0	46	194	48	22	5	0%	1.0	24.5%	11.4%	13.1%	2.7%	4.44	4.32	+0.1
2032	26	MLB CTX	LAD	45	0	47	198	49	23	5	0%	1.0	24.7%	11.3%	13.4%	2.7%	4.36	4.30	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		187	0	196	827	199	103	22	0%	1.0	24.1%	12.5%	11.7%	2.7%	4.62	4.12	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	203	105	22	0%	1.1	24.1%	12.5%	11.7%	2.7%	4.62	4.12	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		64	5	90	417	93	81	6	8%	1.4	22.2%	19.5%	2.8%	1.5%	5.32	4.50	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		143	11	200	930	207	181	14	8%	1.4	22.2%	19.5%	2.8%	1.5%	5.32	4.50	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Chambers (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.50	21.8%	18.5%	2.8%	—	4.72	23.6%	9.8%	149	-0.78	—	—	—
Jeff Belge L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SU	4.91	24.0%	18.8%	2.7%	.343	3.68	24.2%	10.4%	131	-1.23	3.30	175	86
CD Pelham L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	20	SU	4.77	18.8%	18.7%	1.6%	.286	4.00	20.4%	7.8%	109	-0.77	3.39	288	85
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	85
Dillon Larsen L 2022 · 5.90 FIP	24	SU	5.90	21.7%	21.6%	3.5%	.277	4.65	18.0%	-4.1%	91	-1.25	4.04	120	84
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	84
Adrian Almeida L 2016 · 5.65 FIP	21	SU	5.65	18.6%	15.3%	4.0%	.295	4.97	18.4%	-4.1%	119	-0.68	4.27	188	84
Joseph Menefee L 2023 · 4.50 FIP	23	SU	4.50	21.9%	18.5%	1.7%	.361	4.71	24.8%	6.0%	99	+0.21	3.22	146	83
Brayan Restituyo L 2023 · 5.53 FIP	21	SU	5.53	17.4%	17.3%	3.1%	.312	4.76	17.6%	5.6%	151	-0.77	3.66	239	83
Carlos Rey L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	22	SU	4.47	26.1%	22.0%	1.4%	.297	4.30	25.5%	5.4%	108	-0.17	3.90	165	82
Julian Bosnic L 2023 · 5.72 FIP	23	SU	5.72	22.5%	21.0%	3.4%	.206	4.74	19.1%	-0.1%	90	-0.98	4.31	136	82
Gil Luna L 2023 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	22.5%	24.5%	1.9%	.303	4.95	19.7%	-6.0%	73	-0.42	4.57	113	82
Austin Hamilton L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.0%	15.6%	2.3%	.329	4.20	16.3%	8.9%	109	-0.72	4.02	135	82
Triston Polley L 2021 · 4.88 FIP	24	SU	4.88	22.3%	20.0%	2.1%	.361	4.77	18.5%	5.2%	136	-0.11	4.15	151	81
Nicolo Pinazzi L 2021 · 4.55 FIP	21	SU	4.55	25.7%	21.3%	1.7%	.389	5.41	22.7%	0.2%	76	+0.86	2.58	155	81
Tim Collins L 2011 · 4.36 FIP	21	SU	4.36	20.3%	15.6%	1.8%	.255	3.47	25.9%	15.6%	144	-0.89	3.16	297	81
Yoldin De La Paz L 2023 · 4.38 FIP	21	SU	4.38	17.8%	15.8%	1.4%	.339	4.32	17.7%	10.5%	44	-0.06	3.51	124	81
Christian Chamberlain L 2022 · 6.42 FIP	23	SU	6.42	23.4%	21.7%	4.6%	.330	4.12	24.1%	5.4%	99	-2.30	3.91	148	81
Felix Cabrera L 2023 · 4.62 FIP	21	SU	4.62	17.9%	18.6%	1.2%	.258	5.43	13.8%	-5.3%	62	+0.81	3.96	132	80
Blake Townsend L 2022 · 5.83 FIP	21	SU	5.83	18.3%	17.5%	3.8%	.170	3.73	18.1%	8.4%	167	-2.10	3.34	305	80
Peter Bonilla L 2024 · 4.63 FIP	19	SU	4.63	20.9%	18.3%	1.8%	.250	6.24	19.5%	-5.4%	51	+1.61	4.27	134	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	48	23.7%	13.4%	1.05	4.77
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19