Randy Guzman — OGILVIE

Randy GuzmanOF St. Lucie Mets

Age 21 R/R 6'4" / 215 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION225 act + 150 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†93

AVG/OBP/SLG.230 / .302 / .393

PA150

HR4

K%36

BB%7

BABIP346

ISO163

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 33 / POW 61

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT33

scouting grade only

POWER61

scouting grade only

EYE30

scouting grade only

SPEED34

scouting grade only

DEFENSE45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.5	$10M	+$9M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.7	$10M	+$9M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.8	$10M	+$9M
2032	Arb-1	$4M	+1.9	$10M	+$8M
2033	Arb-2	$6M	+1.7	$8M	+$5M
2034	Arb-3	$7M	+1.5	$7M	+$3M
Totals		$19M		$54M	+$44M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	18	ROK	DSL Mets Orange	—	177	156	15	4	0	2	17	89	4	0	0	96	203	160	364	64	200	50	10	170	-12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	DSL Mets Orange	—	177	143	25	8	0	3	30	59	4	0	0	175	333	294	627	119	272	33	17	300	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	DSL Mets Blue	—	76	71	8	2	1	1	5	39	0	1	2	113	171	211	382	99	226	51	7	177	-6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	DSL Mets Blue	—	76	67	14	4	1	2	9	25	0	1	2	209	303	388	691	179	300	33	12	310	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK	2 teams	—	283	258	67	21	1	10	15	73	9	2	6	260	323	465	788	205	324	26	5	328	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK	2 teams	—	283	252	76	22	2	10	21	54	9	2	6	302	376	524	900	222	349	19	7	394	160	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	21	A	NYM	—	225	198	38	8	1	7	17	95	8	4	2	192	283	348	631	157	316	42	8	269	64	-9	+0	+0	-1	+6	-0.4
YTD	21	A	NYM	—	225	193	48	10	1	9	22	67	8	4	2	249	350	451	801	202	328	30	10	354	129	+7	+0	+0	-1	+6	1.3
ROS	21	A	NYM	0%	150	135	31	8	1	4	10	54	4	2	1	230	302	393	695	163	332	36	7	306	93	-1	+0	-1	-1	+4	0.1
ROS	21	MLB	NYM	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		332	—	—	287	78	—	—	-0	-0	—	—
FULL	21	A	NYM	—	225	199	38	8	1	7	17	95	8	4	2	191	283	347	629	156	313	42	8	269	64	-9	+0	+0	-1	+6	-0.4
TOT	21	A	NYM	—	375	333	69	16	2	11	27	149	12	6	3	207	290	366	657	159	330	40	7	284	76	-10	+0	-1	-2	+11	-0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	NYM	43%	381	343	80	19	2	13	26	130	9	3	2	233	304	414	718	181	328	34	7	317	100	+0	-0	-2	-2	+11	0.7
2028	23	MLB	NYM	61%	447	402	95	22	2	17	32	147	10	4	3	236	309	428	736	192	326	33	7	325	107	+3	-0	-2	-3	+13	1.1
2029	24	MLB	NYM	66%	490	440	105	24	2	19	36	158	11	4	3	239	312	432	744	193	325	32	7	330	111	+6	-0	-2	-3	+14	1.5
2030	25	MLB	NYM	69%	512	458	111	25	2	21	38	164	11	5	3	242	316	443	759	201	325	32	7	334	113	+8	-0	-2	-3	+15	1.7
2031	26	MLB	NYM	70%	522	467	114	26	2	22	39	167	11	5	3	244	317	450	767	206	325	32	7	336	115	+9	-0	-2	-3	+15	1.8
2032	27	MLB	NYM	69%	524	469	114	26	2	22	39	168	11	5	3	243	316	448	764	205	325	32	7	336	115	+9	-0	-2	-3	+15	1.9
2033	28	MLB	NYM	68%	521	465	113	26	2	22	40	168	11	4	3	243	318	449	767	206	324	32	8	335	114	+8	-0	-3	-3	+15	1.7
2034	29	MLB	NYM	67%	512	457	110	25	2	21	39	166	11	4	3	241	316	442	758	201	323	32	8	333	113	+7	-0	-4	-3	+15	1.5
2035	30	MLB	NYM	66%	502	447	106	24	2	20	39	164	11	4	3	237	314	434	748	197	322	33	8	330	111	+6	-0	-4	-3	+14	1.3
2036	31	MLB	NYM	65%	488	438	102	23	2	19	37	161	10	3	2	233	307	425	732	192	319	33	8	326	108	+4	-0	-5	-3	+14	1.0
2037	32	MLB	NYM	65%	470	421	97	22	2	18	36	157	10	2	2	230	306	420	727	190	315	33	8	320	103	+2	-0	-6	-3	+13	0.6
2038	33	MLB	NYM	65%	440	395	87	19	1	16	33	149	9	2	1	220	295	395	690	175	310	34	8	312	97	-1	+0	-6	-3	+12	0.2
2027	22	MLB	NYM	43%	164	148	35	8	1	6	11	56	4	1	1	236	307	426	732	189	327	34	7	299	87	-2	-0	-1	-1	+5	0.0
2028	23	MLB	NYM	61%	272	245	58	14	1	10	19	90	6	2	2	237	307	424	732	188	326	33	7	308	94	-2	-0	-1	-2	+8	0.3
2029	24	MLB	NYM	66%	324	290	70	16	1	13	24	105	7	3	2	241	315	438	753	197	325	32	7	314	98	-1	-0	-1	-2	+9	0.5
2030	25	MLB	NYM	69%	352	315	76	17	2	14	26	113	8	3	2	241	315	441	756	200	324	32	7	317	101	+0	-0	-2	-2	+10	0.7
2031	26	MLB	NYM	70%	364	326	80	18	2	15	27	116	8	3	2	245	319	451	769	206	324	32	7	319	103	+1	-0	-2	-2	+10	0.8
2032	27	MLB	NYM	69%	361	323	79	18	2	15	27	116	8	3	2	245	318	452	770	207	324	32	7	319	103	+1	-0	-2	-2	+10	0.7
2033	28	MLB	NYM	68%	357	319	76	17	1	15	27	115	8	3	2	238	314	439	752	201	324	32	8	318	102	+1	-0	-2	-2	+10	0.7
2034	29	MLB	NYM	67%	342	306	73	17	1	14	26	111	7	3	2	239	313	438	751	199	323	32	8	316	100	+0	-0	-2	-2	+10	0.5
2035	30	MLB	NYM	66%	330	295	70	16	1	13	25	108	7	2	2	237	312	431	742	193	321	33	8	314	98	-1	-0	-3	-2	+9	0.4
2036	31	MLB	NYM	65%	318	284	67	15	1	13	24	105	7	2	1	236	311	433	744	197	319	33	8	310	95	-2	+0	-3	-2	+9	0.2
2037	32	MLB	NYM	65%	304	272	63	14	1	12	23	101	6	2	1	232	306	423	728	191	315	33	8	304	91	-3	+0	-4	-2	+9	0.0
2038	33	MLB	NYM	65%	284	254	57	12	1	11	22	96	6	1	1	224	301	409	711	185	309	34	8	297	85	-5	-0	-4	-2	+8	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3772	3378	804	182	15	151	281	1232	82	28	20	238	312	435	747	197	324	33	7	312	97	-12	-2	-26	-23	+107	4.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	582	139	31	3	26	48	212	14	5	3	239	312	436	749	198	325	33	7	312	97	-2	-0	-5	-4	+18	0.8
Career	—			—	6495	5822	1355	316	26	247	481	2154	142	50	40	233	307	423	730	190	321	33	7	322	104	+32	-6	-41	-39	+184	13.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	583	137	32	3	25	48	216	14	5	4	235	309	429	737	194	325	33	7	322	104	+3	-1	-4	-4	+18	1.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	18	ROK	DSL Mets Orange	—	177	143	25	8	0	3	30	59	4	0	0	175	333	294	627	119	272	33	17	300	88	-2	+0	—	—	+5	0.3
2024	19	ROK	DSL Mets Blue	—	76	67	14	4	1	2	9	25	0	1	2	209	303	388	691	179	300	33	12	310	95	-0	-1	—	—	+2	0.1
2025	20	A	St. Lucie Mets	—	105	96	32	13	2	3	6	21	2	2	3	333	385	604	989	271	397	20	6	424	182	+10	-1	—	—	+3	1.2
2025	20	ROK	FCL Mets	—	178	156	44	9	0	7	15	33	7	0	3	282	371	474	845	192	319	19	8	377	147	+9	-1	—	—	+5	1.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Colby Rasmuslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 4,070 PA	9	4,070	165	35	242	311	438	-0	+8	16.7	16.2
	/162	664	27	6	242	311	438	-0.0	+1.3	2.7	pk7: 16
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	9	4,086	159	32	239	309	434	-25	-17	12.7	10.8
	/162	664	26	5	239	309	434	-4.0	-2.7	2.1	pk7: 9
#2Tony Batistalast yr '07 career totals — 7 seasons, 3,601 PA	7	3,601	162	33	244	291	445	-9	-1	10.4	10.4
	/162	664	30	6	244	291	445	-1.6	-0.2	1.9	pk7: 10
#3Kole Calhounlast yr '23 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,963 PA	11	4,963	179	33	242	316	418	-54	-33	8.3	9.6
	/162	664	24	4	242	316	418	-7.3	-4.4	1.1	pk7: 11
#4José Hernándezlast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,901 PA	7	2,901	95	17	254	316	413	-11	+5	8.5	8.5
	/162	664	22	4	254	316	413	-2.4	+1.0	1.9	pk7: 8
#5Mitch Hanigerlast yr '24 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,089 PA	8	3,089	130	19	250	324	448	-31	-36	7.8	8.4
	/162	664	28	4	250	324	448	-6.7	-7.8	1.7	pk7: 9
#6Franmil Reyeslast yr '23 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,078 PA	6	2,078	108	6	249	310	464	-22	-18	5.5	5.5
	/162	664	35	2	249	310	464	-7.1	-5.7	1.8	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Randy Guzman (OGILVIE)	21	30→33	45→61	40→34	30	207/290/366	159	330	11	6	40%	7%	76	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Brian Sanchez 2017 · A	21	42	49→60	46→45	38	211/273/359	147	309	16	4	36%	6%	74	-0.1	193/245/302	109	300	10	4	37%	6%	47	-1.9	135/188/204	69	221	4	0	39%	6%	-5	-1.0
●Heliot Ramos 2021 · AA	21	44→54	47→55	41→50	37	218/276/355	137	323	15	8	36%	6%	74	-0.1	218/273/351	133	307	15	11	32%	6%	72	-0.2	265/330/448	183	329	23	8	26%	7%	118	+2.8
●Chris Carter 2008 · A	21	42→52	52→65	43→45	42	220/282/383	163	287	20	3	30%	7%	85	+0.7	230/301/435	205	296	26	5	30%	8%	107	+2.2	213/311/464	252	256	36	3	32%	11%	114	+2.5
✕Heriberto Hernández 2021 · A	21	46→49	51→60	46→50	45	228/304/400	172	318	18	6	32%	9%	98	+1.6	207/286/350	143	335	16	6	40%	9%	78	+0.2	221/302/428	208	278	28	9	31%	9%	103	+1.2
✕Allan Cerda 2022 · A	22	40→22	54→55	39→45	40	207/287/395	188	302	21	5	37%	8%	90	+1.0	172/274/332	160	276	20	7	42%	10%	69	-0.4	139/253/290	151	217	21	7	44%	11%	48	-0.9
✕Anthony García 2013 · A	21	45→47	53→55	42→45	39	233/287/419	186	295	20	4	28%	5%	97	+1.5	205/269/363	158	265	18	5	29%	6%	74	-0.1	221/293/362	141	269	17	4	24%	7%	82	+0.3
✕Max Stassi 2013 · A	22	43	47→55	44→40	40	216/276/351	135	296	16	5	32%	6%	74	-0.1	215/261/351	136	287	16	3	30%	5%	67	-0.5	218/304/386	168	282	22	0	30%	10%	93	+0.6
●Ryan Lavarnway 2010 · A	22	44→45	53→55	43→30	41	226/285/402	176	308	20	3	32%	7%	91	+1.1	228/295/390	162	293	20	2	28%	8%	92	+1.2	224/293/375	150	280	19	1	26%	8%	86	+0.7
✕Alexander Canario 2021 · A	21	44→34	50→60	48→50	40	223/281/376	154	307	18	8	33%	7%	82	+0.5	201/256/378	177	290	23	14	38%	6%	72	-0.2	205/276/414	209	281	28	13	37%	8%	87	+0.5
✕Jose Ramos 2022 · A	21	48→42	46→50	43→45	38	232/287/370	138	327	13	6	32%	6%	83	+0.6	198/264/337	139	312	17	5	40%	7%	66	-0.6	186/249/316	131	296	18	6	41%	7%	52	-1.2
●Eloy Jiménez 2018 · AA	21	50→56	49→65	44→40	37	247/282/401	154	325	16	5	29%	4%	89	+0.9	260/301/453	193	310	25	2	24%	5%	111	+2.5	268/311/483	215	308	30	0	23%	5%	121	+2.1
●Anthony Santander 2017 · A	22	44→47	48→60	44→45	39	224/277/369	145	302	16	7	31%	6%	79	+0.3	231/274/386	155	285	18	6	25%	5%	82	+0.5	233/308/449	216	247	30	2	20%	9%	110	+2.7
●Ryan McMahon 2016 · A	21	46→56	52→55	38→45	38	230/284/402	172	328	18	5	35%	6%	90	+1.0	235/286/378	143	334	14	8	32%	6%	85	+0.7	233/294/378	145	309	16	7	28%	7%	85	+0.6
●Thomas Neal 2009 · A	21	47→57	46→55	41→50	42	232/293/361	128	304	14	4	28%	6%	83	+0.6	260/319/418	158	325	16	6	24%	6%	108	+2.3	267/325/428	160	332	16	7	23%	6%	109	+1.9
●Mark Vientos 2022 · AAA	22	40→49	58→60	38→30	36	221/267/417	196	296	28	3	35%	5%	88	+0.9	242/298/439	197	329	27	2	33%	7%	106	+2.2	245/305/447	202	325	28	0	32%	7%	109	+2.0
●Derek Norris 2010 · A	21	43→53	51→55	45→50	48	223/303/383	161	292	19	5	30%	10%	94	+1.3	207/305/377	170	279	21	9	31%	11%	94	+1.3	261/339/417	156	319	16	5	22%	10%	113	+1.9
●Oswaldo Arcia 2012 · A	21	47→51	51→60	46→45	36	235/275/403	168	318	17	6	32%	4%	86	+0.8	247/302/442	195	325	23	4	30%	6%	108	+2.3	247/307/454	207	317	26	3	30%	7%	110	+2.1
✕Carter Kieboom 2018 · A	20	45→50	49→50	43→45	42	229/288/376	147	300	16	5	29%	6%	85	+0.7	233/302/365	132	310	15	6	28%	8%	88	+0.9	229/307/354	125	306	14	5	28%	9%	84	+0.4
●Jordan Diaz 2022 · A	21	49→56	49→55	41→30	44	247/294/394	147	294	17	5	22%	6%	92	+1.2	262/302/432	170	303	22	2	21%	5%	105	+2.1	263/306/436	173	301	23	0	21%	5%	104	+1.7
●Gary Sánchez 2014 · AA	21	43→50	48→65	47→45	40	222/272/361	139	282	16	6	27%	5%	74	-0.1	241/291/400	159	294	20	6	25%	6%	92	+1.2	240/315/464	224	265	32	4	23%	9%	117	+2.4