Randy Guzman — OGILVIE

Randy GuzmanOF St. Lucie Mets

Age 21 R/R 6'4" / 215 lbs A H -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION294 act + 10 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†96

AVG/OBP/SLG.111 / .200 / .111

PA10

HR0

K%30

BB%10

BABIP326

ISO168

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$37M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 33 / POW 61

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT33

scouting grade only

POWER61

scouting grade only

EYE30

scouting grade only

SPEED34

scouting grade only

DEFENSE45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.2	$7M	+$6M
2032	Arb-1	$4M	+1.2	$6M	+$4M
2033	Arb-2	$6M	+1.1	$5M	+$2M
2034	Arb-3	$8M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$13M		$29M	+$20M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	18	ROK	DSL Mets Orange	—	177	143	25	8	0	3	30	59	4	0	0	175	333	294	627	119	272	33	17	300	89	-2	+0	—	—	+4	0.2
2024	19	ROK	DSL Mets Blue	—	76	67	14	4	1	2	9	25	0	1	2	209	303	388	691	179	300	33	12	310	96	-0	-1	—	—	+2	0.1
2025	20	A	St. Lucie Mets	—	105	96	32	13	2	3	6	21	2	2	3	333	385	604	989	271	397	20	6	424	173	+9	-1	—	—	+2	1.1
2025	20	ROK	FCL Mets	—	178	156	44	9	0	7	15	33	7	0	3	282	371	474	845	192	319	19	8	377	141	+9	-1	—	—	+4	1.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	—	177	155	16	5	0	2	18	87	4	0	0	103	215	174	389	71	201	49	10	178	7	-20	+0	—	—	+4	-1.6
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Blue	—	76	71	8	2	1	1	5	37	0	1	2	113	171	211	382	99	228	49	7	183	10	-8	-1	—	—	+2	-0.7
2025	20	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	—	105	97	29	13	1	3	5	28	2	2	3	299	346	546	893	247	386	27	5	377	141	+5	-1	—	—	+2	0.7
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Mets	—	178	162	33	6	0	6	9	47	7	0	3	204	275	352	627	148	249	26	5	268	68	-7	-1	—	—	+4	-0.4
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	—	177	155	16	5	0	2	18	87	4	0	0	103	215	174	389	71	212	49	10	178	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Mets Orange	—	177	143	25	8	0	3	30	59	4	0	0	175	333	294	627	119	272	33	17	300	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Blue	—	76	71	8	2	1	1	5	37	0	1	2	113	171	211	382	99	212	49	7	183	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Mets Blue	—	76	67	14	4	1	2	9	25	0	1	2	209	303	388	691	179	300	33	12	310	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	283	259	62	19	1	8	14	75	9	2	6	239	301	413	715	174	305	27	5	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	283	252	76	22	2	10	21	54	9	2	6	302	376	524	900	222	349	19	7	394	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	—	177	153	16	5	0	2	18	87	4	0	0	105	215	176	391	72	201	49	10	178	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Blue	—	76	71	8	2	1	1	5	37	0	1	2	113	171	211	382	99	228	49	7	183	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	283	258	62	19	1	8	14	75	9	2	6	240	301	415	716	174	300	27	5	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	—	177	153	16	5	0	2	18	87	4	0	0	105	215	176	391	72	201	49	10	178	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Blue	—	76	71	8	2	1	1	5	37	0	1	2	113	171	211	382	99	228	49	7	183	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	283	258	62	19	1	8	14	75	9	2	6	240	301	415	716	174	300	27	5	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	21	A MLE	NYM	—	294	258	55	9	1	10	22	116	10	5	2	213	300	372	672	159	331	39	7	300	89	-4	+0	+0	-2	+6	0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	ROK RAW	NYM	—	15	14	2	1	0	0	0	9	1	0	1	143	200	214	414	71	400	60	0	195	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	21	A RAW	NYM	—	247	208	57	10	2	12	28	66	8	5	1	274	381	514	896	240	338	27	11	390	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	21	A+ RAW	NYM	—	32	28	11	1	0	1	2	7	1	0	0	393	452	536	987	143	476	22	6	426	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	21	A MLE	NYM	0%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	111	200	111	311		335	30	10	310	96	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	0.0
TOT	21	A MLE	NYM	—	304	267	56	9	1	10	23	119	10	5	2	210	297	363	660	154	324	39	8	301	90	-4	+0	-0	-2	+7	0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	NYM	43%	352	316	76	17	2	12	25	117	8	3	2	241	312	421	733	180	335	33	7	324	106	+2	-0	-2	-2	+8	0.6
2028	23	MLB MLE	NYM	61%	426	382	93	20	2	16	31	137	10	4	2	243	317	432	749	188	332	32	7	332	111	+5	+0	-2	-3	+9	1.0
2029	24	MLB MLE	NYM	66%	476	426	105	22	2	19	36	150	11	4	3	246	321	441	763	195	331	32	8	337	114	+8	-0	-2	-3	+10	1.3
2030	25	MLB MLE	NYM	69%	503	449	112	23	3	21	38	157	11	4	3	249	323	454	778	205	330	31	8	340	116	+10	-0	-2	-3	+11	1.5
2031	26	MLB MLE	NYM	70%	516	461	116	24	3	22	39	161	11	5	3	252	325	460	785	208	330	31	8	342	118	+11	-0	-2	-3	+11	1.7
2032	27	MLB MLE	NYM	69%	521	464	116	24	3	22	41	163	11	5	3	250	326	457	782	207	330	31	8	342	118	+11	-0	-2	-3	+11	1.7
2033	28	MLB MLE	NYM	68%	518	461	116	24	3	22	41	162	11	4	3	252	327	460	787	208	330	31	8	341	117	+11	-0	-3	-3	+11	1.6
2034	29	MLB MLE	NYM	67%	510	454	111	23	2	21	40	161	11	4	2	244	321	443	764	198	327	32	8	338	115	+9	+0	-4	-3	+11	1.4
2035	30	MLB MLE	NYM	66%	501	445	107	22	2	20	40	159	11	4	2	240	319	434	752	193	324	32	8	334	113	+7	+0	-4	-3	+11	1.1
2036	31	MLB MLE	NYM	65%	487	434	102	21	2	19	39	156	11	3	2	235	314	424	738	189	319	32	8	329	109	+5	-0	-5	-3	+11	0.8
2037	32	MLB MLE	NYM	65%	469	419	97	20	2	18	37	152	10	2	1	232	309	418	727	186	314	32	8	323	104	+2	+0	-6	-3	+10	0.4
2038	33	MLB MLE	NYM	70%	440	393	90	18	2	17	35	145	9	2	1	229	307	415	721	186	309	33	8	315	99	-0	+0	-6	-3	+10	0.0
2039	34	MLB MLE	NYM	66%	394	352	78	15	2	14	31	133	8	1	1	222	299	395	694	173	301	34	8	306	93	-3	-0	-7	-2	+9	-0.4
2027	22	MLB CTX	NYM	43%	152	136	32	7	1	5	11	51	4	1	1	235	311	412	723	176	326	34	7	302	106	+1	-0	-1	-1	+3	0.3
2028	23	MLB CTX	NYM	61%	259	232	56	12	1	10	19	83	6	2	1	241	315	431	746	190	323	32	7	310	111	+3	+0	-1	-2	+6	0.6
2029	24	MLB CTX	NYM	66%	315	281	68	14	2	12	24	99	7	3	2	242	317	434	751	192	322	31	8	316	114	+5	-0	-1	-2	+7	0.9
2030	25	MLB CTX	NYM	69%	345	308	75	15	2	14	26	107	8	3	2	244	319	442	760	198	321	31	8	319	116	+7	-0	-2	-2	+7	1.1
2031	26	MLB CTX	NYM	70%	360	321	78	16	2	15	28	112	8	3	2	243	319	445	765	202	321	31	8	321	118	+8	-0	-2	-2	+8	1.2
2032	27	MLB CTX	NYM	69%	359	320	78	16	2	15	28	112	8	3	2	244	320	447	767	203	321	31	8	321	118	+8	-0	-2	-2	+8	1.2
2033	28	MLB CTX	NYM	68%	355	316	77	16	2	15	28	111	8	3	2	244	321	449	770	206	321	31	8	320	117	+7	-0	-2	-2	+8	1.1
2034	29	MLB CTX	NYM	67%	340	303	73	15	2	14	27	107	7	3	2	241	318	442	760	201	318	31	8	317	115	+6	-0	-2	-2	+7	0.9
2035	30	MLB CTX	NYM	66%	329	293	68	14	1	13	26	105	7	2	1	232	310	420	730	188	315	32	8	313	113	+5	+0	-3	-2	+7	0.7
2036	31	MLB CTX	NYM	65%	317	282	65	13	1	13	25	102	7	2	1	230	309	422	731	191	311	32	8	309	109	+3	+0	-3	-2	+7	0.5
2037	32	MLB CTX	NYM	65%	304	270	61	12	1	12	24	99	7	2	1	226	306	411	717	185	305	33	8	302	104	+2	+0	-4	-2	+7	0.3
2038	33	MLB CTX	NYM	70%	309	275	61	12	1	12	24	102	7	1	1	222	301	404	704	182	300	33	8	295	99	-0	-0	-4	-2	+7	0.0
2039	34	MLB CTX	NYM	66%	259	232	49	9	1	9	20	87	5	1	0	211	288	375	663	164	293	34	8	286	93	-2	+0	-4	-2	+6	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4003	3569	841	171	19	159	310	1277	89	29	18	236	312	428	740	192	316	32	8	311	106	+53	-1	-31	-24	+87	8.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	580	137	28	3	26	50	207	14	5	3	236	312	429	741	193	316	32	8	311	106	+9	-0	-5	-4	+14	1.4
Career	—	MLE		—	6659	5950	1406	299	32	254	511	2155	146	48	36	236	312	425	738	189	322	32	8	325	106	+79	-2	-46	-37	+133	12.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	581	137	29	3	25	50	210	14	5	4	236	312	425	737	189	321	32	8	325	106	+8	-0	-5	-4	+14	1.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Colby Rasmuslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 4,070 PA	6.1	4,070	165	35	242	311	438	-0	+8	16.7	16.2
/162	664	27	6	-0.0	+1.3	2.7	pk7: 16
#2Cody Rosslast yr '14 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,733 PA	5.6	3,733	131	33	264	324	449	-13	-12	15.1	15.6
/162	664	23	6	-2.3	-2.1	2.7	pk7: 16
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	6.5	4,293	168	32	243	314	436	-26	-17	14.2	12.0
/162	664	26	5	-4.0	-2.6	2.2	pk7: 10
#3Pedro Álvarezlast yr '18 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,287 PA	5.0	3,287	161	15	235	309	447	+1	-40	10.0	10.2
/162	664	33	3	+0.2	-8.0	2.0	pk7: 10
#4Kole Calhounlast yr '23 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,963 PA	7.5	4,963	179	33	242	316	418	-54	-33	8.3	9.6
/162	664	24	4	-7.3	-4.4	1.1	pk7: 11
#5Mitch Hanigerlast yr '24 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,089 PA	4.7	3,089	130	19	250	324	448	-31	-36	7.8	8.4
/162	664	28	4	-6.7	-7.8	1.7	pk7: 9
#6Franmil Reyeslast yr '23 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,078 PA	3.1	2,078	108	6	249	310	464	-22	-18	5.5	5.5
/162	664	35	2	-7.1	-5.7	1.8	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Randy Guzman (OGILVIE)	21	30→33	45→61	40→34	30	228/301/389	161	335	9	4	35%	7%	96	+0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Heriberto Hernández 2021 · A	21	46→48	51→60	46→50	45	228/304/400	172	318	18	6	32%	9%	99	+1.2	206/287/349	143	328	16	6	39%	9%	81	-0.1	219/301/418	199	277	26	10	30%	9%	100	+1.0
✕Allan Cerda 2022 · A	22	40→23	53→50	39→45	40	204/284/384	180	304	20	5	38%	8%	88	+0.4	173/275/329	156	276	19	7	41%	10%	73	-0.6	142/256/290	148	220	20	7	42%	11%	54	-1.0
✕Anthony García 2013 · A	21	44→47	51→55	42→45	39	225/283/397	171	291	18	4	29%	5%	90	+0.6	203/267/348	145	264	16	5	29%	6%	73	-0.6	219/290/359	140	265	17	4	24%	7%	83	+0.0
●Eloy Jiménez 2018 · AA	21	50→55	50→65	44→40	38	250/286/410	159	324	17	5	28%	4%	93	+0.8	264/304/457	193	314	25	2	24%	5%	112	+2.2	272/314/485	213	313	29	0	23%	5%	120	+1.9
✕Max Stassi 2013 · A	22	42→43	48→55	44→40	40	214/273/349	135	292	16	5	32%	6%	75	-0.5	216/262/352	136	287	16	3	30%	5%	72	-0.7	215/301/376	160	280	21	0	29%	10%	91	+0.3
●Mark Vientos 2022 · AAA	22	41→50	55→60	38→30	37	222/269/403	181	298	24	3	34%	5%	86	+0.3	239/296/423	184	323	24	2	32%	7%	101	+1.4	243/303/441	198	304	26	1	28%	7%	106	+1.5
●Andy Pages 2023 · AA	22	38→48	55	45→50	44	207/289/391	184	267	23	6	31%	8%	92	+0.7	240/307/413	173	302	20	9	27%	7%	103	+1.5	266/322/445	180	311	23	10	22%	6%	115	+2.3
✕Jose Ramos 2022 · A	21	48→41	46→50	43→45	38	231/287/370	139	327	13	6	32%	6%	85	+0.2	201/266/340	139	312	17	5	39%	7%	71	-0.8	189/253/315	125	291	17	6	39%	7%	58	-1.3
✕Ryan Lavarnway 2010 · A	22	44→46	53→55	43→30	41	226/285/402	176	308	20	3	32%	7%	92	+0.7	231/296/389	158	293	19	2	27%	7%	93	+0.8	227/294/372	145	279	18	1	25%	7%	87	+0.4
●Ryan McMahon 2016 · A	21	46→56	50→55	39→45	38	226/281/386	160	329	16	5	35%	6%	86	+0.3	237/289/380	143	335	13	8	31%	6%	87	+0.4	230/313/394	163	297	19	6	28%	10%	99	+1.3
★Austin Riley 2018 · AA	21	43→53	49→65	42→45	37	217/265/360	143	305	17	3	34%	5%	75	-0.5	229/280/409	180	309	23	2	33%	6%	92	+0.7	282/354/518	236	335	31	1	25%	8%	140	+4.9
●Miguel Sanó 2013 · A	20	38→48	54→70	46→45	42	204/276/383	178	286	22	5	35%	8%	84	+0.2	224/304/440	216	310	27	7	35%	9%	108	+1.9	243/334/470	227	339	30	2	35%	11%	122	+2.7
●Gary Sánchez 2014 · AA	21	43→50	48→65	47→45	41	221/272/359	138	282	16	6	28%	6%	77	-0.3	238/288/385	147	290	18	6	24%	6%	88	+0.5	240/315/462	222	266	31	4	23%	8%	115	+1.9
●Iván Herrera 2022 · AA	22	41→51	47→50	40→50	47	212/289/339	127	271	16	4	28%	9%	79	-0.2	238/325/362	124	309	12	10	25%	10%	97	+1.1	268/364/419	151	313	19	10	19%	10%	122	+2.5
✕Tom Murphy 2014 · AA	23	41→38	50→65	42→45	39	211/275/365	155	299	17	5	34%	6%	80	-0.2	209/263/374	165	291	20	5	34%	6%	78	-0.3	247/319/462	215	314	30	2	30%	9%	117	+1.1
✕Derek Norris 2010 · A	21	43→53	51→55	45→50	48	223/303/383	161	292	19	5	30%	10%	95	+0.9	204/301/365	161	275	19	9	31%	11%	90	+0.6	258/336/412	153	316	16	5	22%	10%	109	+1.5
●Thomas Neal 2009 · A	21	47→57	46→50	41→50	42	232/293/361	128	304	14	4	28%	6%	85	+0.2	260/319/409	149	325	15	6	24%	6%	105	+1.7	268/326/416	147	333	14	7	22%	6%	106	+1.4
✕Alexander Canario 2021 · A	21	44→34	50→60	48→50	40	223/281/376	154	307	18	8	33%	7%	84	+0.2	200/256/369	169	285	21	14	36%	7%	74	-0.6	201/270/393	193	274	26	13	36%	8%	82	-0.0
●Mike Carp 2007 · A	21	45→54	49→55	43→40	41	227/302/369	142	299	17	3	29%	6%	91	+0.7	237/308/365	128	294	14	3	23%	7%	92	+0.7	260/323/444	184	320	22	4	25%	8%	113	+1.5
●Nolan Gorman 2019 · A	19	43	54→60	38→45	41	219/282/393	174	319	23	4	37%	8%	88	+0.5	203/256/343	140	302	16	4	36%	6%	68	-1.0	216/289/434	218	283	32	7	35%	9%	100	+1.1

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps