Nathan Flewelling

C Bowling Green Hot Rods

Age 20 L/R 6'2" / 200 lbs A+ HR -6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

Scout OFP51ETA2028MLB%4%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	18	A+TB	22	.250/.429/.438	0	0	100	—	.222/.333/.389
2025	18	ATB	439	.229/.399/.336	6	9	76	—	.197/.327/.280
2026	19	A+TB	486	.243/.367/.452	21	8	74	—	.193/.280/.365
2026	19	INTLScottsdale Sc…	52	.362/.423/.404	0	2	142	—
2027PROJ4% MLB	20	MLBTB	14	.203/.301/.341	0	0	84	0.0
2028PROJ50% MLB	21	MLBTB	261	.211/.309/.364	8	4	92	0.8
2029PROJ69% MLB	22	MLBTB	358	.218/.316/.382	12	5	99	1.3

Next 3 projected WAR 2.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$6M2034Arb-2$9M+1

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+

ISO76

BB%75

wOBA65

wRC+65

Chase%53

Speed41

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 29, comp-based) · star 8% · didn't stick 67%

CompsCarter Jensen (age 20) · Moisés Ballesteros (age 19) · Travis Denker (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†84

AVG/OBP/SLG.203 / .301 / .341

PA14

HR0

K%29

BB%14

BABIP282

ISO140

MLB%4%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$76M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 46 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT46

scouting grade only

POWER55

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED35

scouting grade only

DEFENSE49

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.7	$11M	+$10M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.9	$11M	+$11M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.9	$10M	+$10M
2033	Arb-1	$6M	+2.0	$10M	+$7M
2034	Arb-2	$9M	+1.9	$9M	+$5M
2035	Arb-3	$12M	+1.7	$7M	+$2M
Totals		$30M		$59M	+$45M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	18	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	22	16	4	1	1	0	5	6	0	0	1	250	429	438	866	188	364	27	23	373	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	439	336	77	16	1	6	89	121	6	9	2	229	399	336	735	107	329	28	20	342	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	486	403	98	17	2	21	71	132	8	8	4	243	367	452	819	208	303	27	15	364	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	52	47	17	2	0	0	5	10	0	2	0	362	423	404	827	43	459	19	10	378	142	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	18	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	22	18	4	1	1	0	3	8	0	0	1	222	333	389	722	167	319	36	14	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	439	361	71	16	1	4	64	164	6	9	2	197	327	280	607	83	315	37	15	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	486	430	83	13	2	19	44	173	8	8	4	193	280	365	645	172	256	36	9	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	A MLE	2 teams	—	461	379	75	17	2	4	67	171	6	9	3	198	327	285	612	87	335	37	15	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	A RAW	2 teams	—	461	352	81	17	2	6	94	127	6	9	3	230	400	341	741	111	330	28	20	343	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	538	477	91	14	2	21	49	192	8	10	4	191	277	361	638	170	261	36	9	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	538	450	115	19	2	21	76	142	8	10	4	256	373	447	819	191	323	26	14	365	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	A MLE	2 teams	—	461	385	75	17	2	4	67	171	6	9	3	195	327	281	608	86	315	37	15	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	538	476	91	14	2	21	49	192	8	10	4	191	277	361	638	170	256	36	9	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	18	A MLE	2 teams	—	461	385	75	17	2	4	67	171	6	9	3	195	327	281	608	86	315	37	15	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	538	476	91	14	2	21	49	192	8	10	4	191	277	361	638	170	256	36	9	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	TB	4%	596	519	104	19	2	16	65	189	7	7	3	202	300	343	643	140	279	32	11	292	84	-12	+0	-2	+11	+13	0.8
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	20	MLB CTX	TB	4%	14	12	2	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	203	301	341	642	137	282	29	14	292	84	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	TB	50%	520	451	94	17	2	16	58	160	6	7	2	210	309	366	675	156	281	31	11	304	92	-5	+1	-1	+9	+11	1.5
2029	22	MLB MLE	TB	69%	520	450	98	18	2	18	58	154	7	7	2	217	315	385	700	168	282	30	11	314	99	-1	+1	-1	+9	+11	2.0
2030	23	MLB MLE	TB	77%	520	451	100	18	2	19	58	150	6	7	2	222	319	397	715	175	284	29	11	320	103	+2	+1	-1	+9	+11	2.3
2031	24	MLB MLE	TB	78%	520	451	101	18	2	19	58	147	6	7	2	225	321	403	724	178	285	28	11	323	105	+3	+1	-0	+9	+11	2.4
2032	25	MLB MLE	TB	79%	520	452	102	18	2	19	57	145	6	6	2	227	322	406	728	179	285	28	11	325	106	+4	+0	-0	+9	+11	2.5
2033	26	MLB MLE	TB	79%	520	451	101	18	2	19	58	145	6	6	2	227	322	405	728	179	285	28	11	324	106	+4	+0	-0	+9	+11	2.5
2034	27	MLB MLE	TB	78%	520	451	101	18	2	19	58	146	6	5	2	225	321	402	724	177	284	28	11	323	105	+3	+0	-0	+9	+11	2.4
2035	28	MLB MLE	TB	77%	520	451	101	18	2	19	58	147	6	4	2	223	319	398	717	174	283	28	11	320	103	+2	+0	-1	+9	+11	2.2
2036	29	MLB MLE	TB	75%	520	452	100	18	2	18	57	149	6	3	2	221	316	391	707	170	281	29	11	316	100	+0	-0	-2	+9	+11	1.9
2037	30	MLB MLE	TB	74%	520	452	99	18	2	18	57	150	6	3	3	218	313	383	695	165	279	29	11	312	97	-2	-1	-2	+9	+11	1.6
2038	31	MLB MLE	TB	73%	504	439	95	17	2	17	55	148	5	3	3	213	308	372	680	159	276	29	11	306	93	-4	-1	-3	+9	+11	1.2
2039	32	MLB MLE	TB	72%	489	429	89	15	1	16	52	146	5	3	3	208	301	359	661	152	271	30	11	298	88	-7	-1	-4	+9	+11	0.8
2040	33	MLB MLE	TB	79%	473	416	83	14	1	14	50	144	4	3	2	201	294	344	638	142	266	30	11	289	82	-10	-0	-4	+8	+10	0.4
2041	34	MLB MLE	TB	74%	439	386	74	12	1	12	46	136	4	3	2	193	285	325	610	132	258	31	10	277	74	-14	-0	-5	+8	+10	-0.2
2028	21	MLB CTX	TB	50%	261	227	48	9	1	8	29	80	3	4	1	211	309	364	674	153	284	31	11	304	92	-2	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.8
2029	22	MLB CTX	TB	69%	358	311	68	12	2	12	40	106	4	5	2	218	316	382	698	164	285	30	11	313	99	-1	+0	-1	+6	+8	1.3
2030	23	MLB CTX	TB	77%	398	346	77	13	2	14	44	115	5	5	2	223	320	394	713	171	286	29	11	319	103	+1	+0	-0	+7	+9	1.7
2031	24	MLB CTX	TB	78%	406	353	80	14	2	15	45	115	5	5	2	226	322	400	722	174	288	28	11	323	105	+2	+0	-0	+7	+9	1.9
2032	25	MLB CTX	TB	79%	409	356	81	14	2	15	45	114	5	5	2	228	323	403	726	175	288	28	11	324	106	+3	+0	-0	+7	+9	1.9
2033	26	MLB CTX	TB	79%	411	358	81	14	2	15	45	115	5	5	1	228	323	402	725	175	288	28	11	324	106	+3	+1	-0	+7	+9	2.0
2034	27	MLB CTX	TB	78%	403	350	79	14	2	14	45	113	5	4	1	226	322	400	722	173	287	28	11	322	105	+2	+0	-0	+7	+9	1.9
2035	28	MLB CTX	TB	77%	400	348	79	14	2	14	44	113	5	3	1	224	320	395	715	170	286	28	11	320	103	+1	+0	-1	+7	+9	1.7
2036	29	MLB CTX	TB	75%	389	339	74	13	1	13	43	111	4	3	1	222	317	388	705	166	284	29	11	316	100	+0	+0	-1	+7	+8	1.5
2037	30	MLB CTX	TB	74%	382	333	73	13	1	13	42	111	4	2	2	219	313	380	693	161	282	29	11	311	97	-1	-0	-2	+7	+8	1.2
2038	31	MLB CTX	TB	73%	367	320	69	12	1	12	40	108	4	2	2	214	309	370	678	156	278	29	11	305	93	-3	-0	-2	+7	+8	0.9
2039	32	MLB CTX	TB	72%	354	309	65	11	1	11	38	105	4	2	2	209	302	357	659	148	274	30	11	298	88	-5	-0	-3	+6	+8	0.6
2040	33	MLB CTX	TB	79%	372	327	66	11	1	11	39	113	3	2	2	202	295	342	636	139	269	30	10	288	82	-8	-0	-3	+7	+8	0.3
2041	34	MLB CTX	TB	74%	325	285	56	9	1	9	34	101	3	2	2	194	286	323	609	129	261	31	10	277	74	-10	-0	-4	+6	+7	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	5235	4562	996	173	21	176	573	1520	59	49	23	218	313	381	695	163	283	29	11	311	94	-18	+1	-18	+93	+113	17.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	566	124	21	3	22	71	189	7	6	3	219	313	383	697	164	285	29	11	311	94	-2	+0	-2	+12	+14	2.2
Career	—	MLE		—	8424	7316	1560	278	30	277	931	2532	97	90	39	213	310	373	683	160	281	30	11	307	94	-32	+1	-25	+133	+161	24.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	565	119	21	2	21	72	195	7	7	3	211	307	366	674	156	278	30	11	307	94	-3	+0	-2	+12	+14	2.1

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jason Varitek'97-'11 * career totals — 14 seasons, 5,839 PA	8.8	5,839	193	25	246*	331*	425*	+102	+0	28.9	25.6
/162	664	22	3	+11.6	+0.0	3.3	pk7: 22
#2Charles Johnson'94-'05 * career totals — 11 seasons, 4,385 PA	6.6	4,385	167	6	235*	316*	421*	+78	+0	21.1	19.6
/162	664	25	1	+11.8	+0.0	3.2	pk7: 18
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	7.9	5,250	181	49	218	310	384	+94	-4	22.1	18.4
/162	664	23	6	+11.9	-0.5	2.8	pk7: 15
#3Jody Davis'81-'90 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,984 PA	6.0	3,984	127	7	242*	306*	433*	+70	+0	15.9	16.0
/162	664	21	1	+11.7	+0.0	2.6	pk7: 16
#4John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	6.0	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#5Jarrod Saltalamacchialast yr '16 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	110	5	235	308	414	+56	-10	14.1	14.8
/162	664	23	1	+11.9	-2.1	3.0	pk7: 16
#6Welington Castillolast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,667 PA	4.0	2,667	97	5	254	313	425	+48	-14	13.3	13.2
/162	664	24	1	+11.9	-3.4	3.3	pk7: 13

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nathan Flewelling (OGILVIE)	20	40→46	45→55	37→35	50	200/298/340	139	279	9	4	32%	11%	84	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Carter Jensen 2023 · A	20	38→48	42→55	45→50	49	189/279/298	109	272	9	7	32%	11%	66	-1.1	205/296/340	135	284	14	9	30%	11%	82	-0.0	233/312/421	188	299	22	7	28%	10%	105	+1.6
●Moisés Ballesteros 2023 · A	19	41→51	46→50	45→40	50	210/283/334	125	261	14	5	25%	9%	76	-0.4	248/309/379	131	301	14	4	21%	8%	95	+0.9	266/327/397	130	316	14	3	20%	8%	104	+1.4
✕Travis Denker 2006 · A	20	47→51	51→50	37→45	50	240/317/403	162	298	20	4	26%	10%	104	+1.6	232/308/369	137	278	15	4	21%	10%	93	+0.8	228/306/359	131	271	13	4	20%	10%	88	+0.3
●Nolan Gorman 2019 · A	19	44→46	54→60	38→45	41	223/287/401	178	325	23	4	37%	8%	93	+0.8	210/264/355	145	313	16	4	36%	6%	73	-0.6	216/289/434	218	282	33	7	35%	9%	102	+1.2
●Ryan McMahon 2015 · A	20	43→53	46→55	43→45	39	211/269/348	136	312	12	6	35%	7%	73	-0.6	240/294/393	153	349	15	7	33%	6%	93	+0.8	232/313/397	165	299	19	6	28%	10%	103	+1.6
✕Carter Kieboom 2018 · A	20	46→55	48→50	43→45	42	231/293/376	145	306	15	5	29%	7%	88	+0.5	241/311/374	133	318	15	6	27%	8%	95	+0.9	239/318/366	128	315	14	5	27%	9%	93	+0.6
✕Nick Weglarz 2008 · A	20	44→48	50	44→45	46	222/301/378	155	310	19	3	33%	9%	93	+0.8	231/317/384	153	294	16	5	25%	10%	99	+1.3	231/323/389	157	284	16	5	23%	10%	101	+1.0
✕Josue Briceño 2024 · A	19	43	44→60	45→40	45	212/270/332	119	265	11	5	24%	7%	70	-0.9	231/302/376	145	286	16	3	24%	8%	92	+0.7	230/310/399	168	278	22	1	25%	9%	99	+0.6
✕Joe Mack 2023 · A	20	43→44	43→55	46→45	50	199/298/303	104	316	11	4	37%	12%	75	-0.5	209/273/326	117	289	14	3	31%	7%	70	-0.9	220/283/384	165	281	22	4	29%	7%	86	+0.2
✕Isan Díaz 2017 · A	21	43	47→55	45	43	212/278/355	143	302	14	8	33%	8%	78	-0.3	207/279/349	142	299	15	8	34%	8%	78	-0.3	212/290/379	167	275	21	5	30%	9%	86	+0.2
●Daniel Robertson 2014 · A	20	47→57	43→45	37→40	45	231/292/342	111	292	10	3	24%	7%	80	-0.1	252/320/366	114	316	9	3	22%	7%	96	+1.0	256/329/366	110	321	8	2	21%	8%	96	+0.9
✕Jon Singleton 2012 · A	20	51→54	47→50	41→45	47	247/316/380	133	329	15	5	28%	9%	98	+1.2	222/304/369	147	319	17	5	33%	11%	91	+0.7	203/297/362	160	286	19	4	34%	12%	87	+0.3
●Mark Vientos 2019 · A	19	43→51	46→60	43→30	45	217/278/343	126	276	14	3	26%	8%	75	-0.5	213/259/354	141	292	17	2	32%	5%	71	-0.8	247/307/448	201	309	26	1	28%	7%	110	+1.8
✕John Whittleman 2008 · A	21	42→45	45→50	42→45	49	209/284/334	124	282	12	5	29%	9%	76	-0.4	204/287/321	117	280	10	3	28%	10%	74	-0.5	172/259/320	148	230	18	1	32%	11%	63	-1.0
●Iván Herrera 2022 · AA	22	43→53	48→50	40→50	48	219/299/351	132	281	17	4	28%	9%	86	+0.3	245/334/373	128	318	13	10	25%	11%	103	+1.6	263/357/416	152	307	19	10	20%	10%	123	+2.6
✕Colson Montgomery 2023 · AA	21	48	43→55	44→45	46	230/305/343	113	307	11	3	27%	8%	86	+0.3	214/301/355	141	294	15	5	31%	9%	88	+0.4	197/286/357	160	269	19	4	33%	9%	81	-0.1
●Travis Snider 2008 · A	20	52→55	49→55	40→50	40	250/300/408	158	355	16	4	33%	6%	98	+1.2	252/311/426	174	347	20	5	31%	8%	107	+1.8	252/314/437	185	332	23	5	30%	8%	109	+1.7
✕Wilin Rosario 2009 · A	20	42→52	44→60	44→45	38	212/256/323	111	292	12	5	31%	5%	62	-1.4	232/268/378	146	305	17	4	29%	4%	79	-0.2	260/293/445	185	295	25	4	21%	4%	106	+1.3
✕Max Stassi 2013 · A	22	43→45	48→55	44→40	40	219/279/357	139	300	16	5	32%	6%	79	-0.2	222/269/363	141	295	16	3	30%	5%	76	-0.4	216/302/377	161	281	21	0	29%	10%	94	+0.4
●Taylor Green 2008 · A	21	50→56	44→50	35→30	48	244/303/366	122	289	11	2	20%	7%	89	+0.5	246/305/371	125	283	13	3	17%	7%	92	+0.7	251/309/394	143	284	14	0	17%	7%	97	+0.8

Nathan Flewelling

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps