Dawel Serda — OGILVIE

Dawel Serda P ACL D-backs

Age 21 RHP 6'3" / 165 lbs ROK peak 0.3 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 1 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.93

FIP4.93

K%19.4%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%8.0%

ROS IP1

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 1 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	12	10	39	173	43	22	2	83%	3.2	16.9%	15.9%	1.0%	1.6%	4.15	4.54	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	12	10	39	173	43	22	2	83%	3.2	16.9%	15.9%	1.0%	1.6%	4.15	4.54	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Black	12	10	39	173	43	22	2	83%	3.2	24.9%	12.7%	12.1%	1.2%	4.15	3.25	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	11	8	34	149	28	19	5	73%	3.1	12.8%	15.9%	-3.2%	5.4%	5.82	6.99	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	11	8	34	149	28	19	5	73%	3.1	12.8%	15.9%	-3.2%	5.4%	5.82	6.99	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	11	8	34	149	28	19	5	73%	3.1	18.8%	12.8%	6.0%	3.4%	5.82	5.04	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	6	1	13	54	9	2	0	17%	2.1	11.3%	4.6%	6.7%	0.0%	4.26	2.73	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	6	1	13	54	9	2	0	17%	2.1	11.3%	4.6%	6.7%	0.0%	4.26	2.73	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	6	1	13	54	9	2	0	17%	2.1	16.7%	3.7%	13.0%	0.0%	4.26	2.15	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	21	MLB	ARI	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	19.4%	11.4%	8.0%	3.0%	4.93	4.93	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	ARI	6	6	32	136	28	14	4	100%	5.4	20.9%	10.3%	10.6%	2.9%	4.72	4.63	+0.1
2027	22	MLB CTX	ARI	3	3	16	68	14	7	2	100%	5.3	20.9%	10.3%	10.6%	2.9%	4.72	4.63	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	16	67	14	7	2	100%	5.3	20.9%	10.3%	10.6%	2.9%	4.72	4.25	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	39	200	844	177	89	25	100%	5.1	20.9%	10.3%	10.6%	2.9%	4.72	4.25	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		29	19	86	376	54	54	11	66%	3.0	14.5%	14.3%	0.2%	2.8%	4.83	5.25	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		68	44	200	878	127	125	25	66%	3.0	14.5%	14.3%	0.2%	2.8%	4.83	5.25	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dawel Serda (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.93	19.4%	11.4%	3.0%	—	4.63	20.9%	10.6%	32	-0.30	—	—	—
Jonathan Petit R 2022 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.3%	9.1%	3.2%	.272	5.11	15.6%	2.4%	113	+0.47	2.70	189	84
Florencio Serrano R 2021 · 3.84 FIP	21	SP-	3.84	19.3%	8.5%	2.4%	.264	4.80	14.1%	3.4%	117	+0.96	3.84	206	84
Kobe Robinson R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	23.2%	14.3%	2.8%	.296	3.44	18.8%	4.9%	84	-1.05	2.98	107	82
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	81
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	81
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	81
Michael Cederoth R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP-	4.10	16.8%	13.0%	1.4%	.292	4.95	21.6%	2.4%	83	+0.85	4.10	118	81
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	81
Luis Rosario R 2018 · 4.68 FIP	21	SP-	4.68	17.5%	11.8%	2.8%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	2.46	206	81
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	80
Felix Arronde R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	20	SW	4.42	20.2%	12.1%	2.7%	.275	4.98	15.8%	5.8%	344	+0.56	4.16	442	80
Jose Gonzalez R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	21	SP-	4.11	16.0%	10.4%	1.9%	.318	3.51	21.0%	14.0%	293	-0.60	2.47	369	80
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	80
Trent Fennell R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	14.5%	12.5%	1.9%	.317	4.46	20.9%	7.5%	89	-0.02	4.08	163	80
Miguel Alfonseca R 2021 · 4.19 FIP	21	SP-	4.19	18.3%	12.1%	2.0%	.400	5.36	14.9%	-0.9%	92	+1.17	4.19	123	80
Luis Aguilar R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	19	SW	4.45	17.6%	10.3%	2.8%	.356	4.27	16.7%	6.7%	111	-0.18	3.51	146	79
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.8%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	79
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	79
Henry Valencio R 2019 · 4.15 FIP	20	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.293	5.11	11.9%	-11.9%	14	+0.96	3.48	136	79
Wilmer Ortega R 2022 · 4.01 FIP	21	SP-	4.01	18.2%	7.9%	2.6%	.304	5.81	16.1%	1.8%	30	+1.80	3.62	158	79