Dawel Serda
P
ACL D-backs
Age 21
RHP
6'3" / 165 lbs
ROK
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 12 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120111vR 101
ERA4.44
FIP4.44
K%22.4%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%12.9%
ROS IP13
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Arizona Black | 12 | 10 | 39 | 173 | 43 | 22 | 2 | 83% | 3.2 | 16.9% | 15.9% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 4.15 | 4.51 | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Arizona Black | 12 | 10 | 39 | 173 | 43 | 22 | 2 | 83% | 3.2 | 24.9% | 12.7% | 12.1% | 1.2% | 4.15 | 3.25 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 11 | 8 | 34 | 149 | 28 | 19 | 5 | 73% | 3.1 | 12.8% | 15.9% | -3.2% | 6.3% | 5.82 | 7.48 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 11 | 8 | 34 | 149 | 28 | 19 | 5 | 73% | 3.1 | 18.8% | 12.8% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 5.82 | 5.04 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 6 | 1 | 13 | 54 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 17% | 2.1 | 11.3% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 0.0% | 4.26 | 2.73 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 6 | 1 | 13 | 54 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 17% | 2.1 | 16.7% | 3.7% | 13.0% | 0.0% | 4.26 | 2.15 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | MLB | ARI | 3 | 3 | 13 | 54 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 100% | 4.3 | 22.4% | 9.5% | 12.9% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 4.44 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | ARI | 4 | 4 | 20 | 84 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.4% | 8.9% | 14.5% | 2.9% | 4.32 | 4.25 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | ARI | 2 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.4% | 8.9% | 14.5% | 2.9% | 4.32 | 4.25 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 4.9 | 23.4% | 8.9% | 14.5% | 2.9% | 4.32 | 3.87 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 39 | 200 | 844 | 203 | 81 | 20 | 100% | 5.1 | 23.4% | 8.9% | 14.5% | 2.9% | 4.32 | 3.87 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 29 | 19 | 86 | 376 | 54 | 54 | 12 | 66% | 3.0 | 14.5% | 14.3% | 0.2% | 3.2% | 4.83 | 5.43 | -0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 68 | 44 | 200 | 878 | 127 | 125 | 28 | 66% | 3.0 | 14.5% | 14.3% | 0.2% | 3.2% | 4.83 | 5.43 | -0.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dawel Serda (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.44 | 22.4% | 9.5% | 3.0% | — | 4.25 | 23.4% | 14.5% | 20 | -0.19 | — | — | — |
| Florencio Serrano R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.84 | 19.3% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .264 | 4.88 | 14.1% | 3.4% | 117 | +1.04 | 3.84 | 206 | 85 |
| Carson Rudd R 2027 · 3.43 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.43 | 25.4% | 10.6% | 2.1% | .351 | 5.24 | 21.6% | 5.6% | 193 | +1.81 | 3.43 | 242 | 84 |
| Connor Cooke R 2027 · 3.47 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .350 | 4.29 | 24.6% | 10.4% | 56 | +0.82 | 2.92 | 103 | 83 |
| Hunter Gregory R 2028 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.98 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .374 | 4.64 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 188 | +0.66 | 3.18 | 234 | 83 |
| Casey Legumina R 2029 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 81 |
| Jeronimo Castro R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.37 | 25.2% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .362 | 3.84 | 20.1% | 7.9% | 35 | +0.47 | 3.19 | 158 | 81 |
| Grant Holman R 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.18 | 18.2% | 7.7% | 4.8% | .308 | 3.75 | 22.4% | 13.8% | 133 | -1.43 | 3.08 | 184 | 80 |
| Colin Fields R 2028 · 3.48 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.48 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 1.5% | .246 | 4.20 | 21.6% | 12.8% | 184 | +0.72 | 3.07 | 229 | 79 |
| Eiberson Castellano R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.94 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 2.5% | .266 | 3.93 | 22.0% | 12.3% | 189 | -0.01 | 3.69 | 348 | 79 |
| Wilmer Ortega R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.86 | 18.2% | 7.9% | 2.4% | .304 | 5.83 | 16.1% | 1.8% | 30 | +1.97 | 3.62 | 158 | 79 |
| Kobe Robinson R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.3% | 3.0% | .296 | 3.45 | 18.8% | 4.9% | 84 | -1.15 | 2.98 | 107 | 78 |
| Chad Donato R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .333 | 3.99 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 184 | +0.14 | 2.91 | 439 | 78 |
| Jonathan Petit R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.74 | 16.3% | 9.1% | 3.4% | .272 | 5.09 | 15.6% | 2.4% | 113 | +0.35 | 2.80 | 189 | 78 |
| Ryan Fernandez R 2025 · 4.44 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.44 | 19.2% | 6.8% | 3.8% | .357 | 3.52 | 20.8% | 13.2% | 53 | -0.92 | 2.97 | 335 | 78 |
| Ray Gaither R 2029 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.91 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .314 | 4.49 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.42 | 4.16 | 164 | 77 |
| Gabe Bierman R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.08 | 21.3% | 11.8% | 4.2% | .277 | 4.65 | 16.2% | 4.0% | 187 | -0.43 | 4.20 | 301 | 77 |
| Simon Mathews R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.09 | 17.7% | 7.5% | 2.8% | .326 | 4.51 | 16.0% | 5.9% | 167 | +0.42 | 4.09 | 215 | 77 |
| Clarke Schmidt R 2027 · 3.53 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.53 | 23.1% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .324 | 3.23 | 21.3% | 13.1% | 108 | -0.30 | 2.76 | 537 | 77 |
| Miguelangel Boadas R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.44 | 20.6% | 11.0% | 1.2% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.64 | 129 | 76 |
| Miguel Rodriguez R 2025 · 3.30 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.30 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.0% | .329 | 5.83 | 19.9% | 7.7% | 108 | +2.53 | 2.55 | 272 | 76 |