Jose Gonzalez — OGILVIE

Jose Gonzalez P Rocket City Trash Pandas

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 2.0 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION90 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10799vR 91

ERA3.87

FIP3.87

K%18.9%

BB%5.4%

K-BB%13.6%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 96 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$31M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL6060

CMD5555

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.2M
2033	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$4M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$11M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers 1	12	11	46	198	40	26	0	92%	3.8	13.7%	16.4%	-2.7%	0.0%	2.35	4.02	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers 1	12	11	46	198	40	26	0	92%	3.8	20.2%	13.1%	7.1%	0.0%	2.35	3.06	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	4	3	10	48	12	3	2	75%	2.4	25.0%	6.2%	18.8%	4.2%	10.24	4.07	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	4	3	10	48	12	3	2	75%	2.4	25.0%	6.2%	18.8%	4.2%	10.24	4.24	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	7	30	133	32	11	2	58%	2.5	16.0%	10.4%	5.6%	1.9%	5.34	4.11	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	7	30	133	32	11	2	58%	2.5	16.0%	10.4%	5.6%	1.9%	5.34	4.11	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	7	30	133	32	11	2	58%	2.5	24.1%	8.3%	15.8%	1.5%	5.34	2.94	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	13	92	367	121	22	4	62%	4.4	24.7%	6.7%	17.9%	1.1%	2.45	2.47	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	13	92	367	121	22	4	62%	4.4	24.7%	6.7%	17.9%	1.1%	2.45	2.47	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	13	92	367	121	22	4	62%	4.4	33.0%	6.0%	27.0%	1.1%	2.45	1.75	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	115	478	114	24	7	96%	5.0	18.6%	5.7%	12.9%	1.5%	2.97	3.08	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	115	478	114	24	7	96%	5.0	18.6%	5.7%	12.9%	1.5%	2.97	3.08	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	22	115	478	114	24	7	96%	5.0	23.8%	5.0%	18.8%	1.5%	2.97	2.53	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	31	10	90	386	98	32	15	32%	2.9	20.6%	9.1%	11.4%	4.7%	5.50	5.08	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	31	10	90	386	98	32	15	32%	2.9	20.6%	9.1%	11.4%	4.7%	5.50	5.08	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	LAA	31	10	90	386	98	32	15	32%	2.9	25.4%	8.3%	17.1%	3.9%	5.50	4.14	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	LAA	6	0	6	26	5	1	1	0%	1.0	18.9%	5.4%	13.6%	2.4%	3.87	3.87	+0.1
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	LAA	—	—	96	412	103	33	16	—	—	25.0%	8.1%	16.9%	3.8%	5.39	5.00	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	LAA	17	17	105	442	87	24	11	100%	6.2	19.6%	5.5%	14.2%	2.4%	3.87	3.85	+1.3
2028	26	MLB MLE	LAA	17	17	105	442	89	25	11	100%	6.2	20.0%	5.6%	14.4%	2.5%	3.87	3.86	+1.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	LAA	17	17	103	436	88	25	11	100%	6.1	20.1%	5.8%	14.3%	2.5%	3.90	3.92	+1.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	LAA	16	16	100	423	85	25	11	100%	6.3	20.0%	6.0%	14.0%	2.7%	3.97	4.01	+1.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	LAA	15	15	96	404	80	25	11	100%	6.4	19.8%	6.2%	13.6%	2.8%	4.07	4.14	+0.9
2032	30	MLB MLE	LAA	15	15	90	380	74	25	11	100%	6.0	19.4%	6.5%	12.9%	3.0%	4.22	4.32	+0.6
2033	31	MLB MLE	LAA	14	14	84	354	67	24	11	100%	6.0	19.0%	6.9%	12.2%	3.2%	4.40	4.52	+0.4
2034	32	MLB MLE	LAA	13	13	78	327	67	21	11	100%	6.0	20.6%	6.5%	14.1%	3.5%	4.44	4.47	+0.4
2035	33	MLB MLE	LAA	11	11	71	300	60	21	11	100%	6.5	20.1%	6.9%	13.2%	3.8%	4.61	4.72	+0.1
2036	34	MLB MLE	LAA	10	10	65	273	53	20	11	100%	6.5	19.5%	7.4%	12.1%	4.1%	4.84	5.00	-0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	LAA	7	7	46	194	38	11	5	100%	6.6	19.6%	5.5%	14.2%	2.5%	3.90	3.88	+0.6
2028	26	MLB CTX	LAA	11	11	70	296	59	17	7	100%	6.4	20.0%	5.6%	14.4%	2.5%	3.90	3.89	+0.9
2029	27	MLB CTX	LAA	13	13	80	338	68	20	9	100%	6.2	20.1%	5.8%	14.3%	2.6%	3.93	3.95	+0.9
2030	28	MLB CTX	LAA	14	14	84	355	71	21	10	100%	6.0	20.0%	6.0%	14.0%	2.7%	4.00	4.04	+0.9
2031	29	MLB CTX	LAA	14	14	84	355	70	22	10	100%	6.0	19.8%	6.2%	13.6%	2.9%	4.10	4.17	+0.8
2032	30	MLB CTX	LAA	13	13	81	342	66	22	11	100%	6.2	19.4%	6.5%	12.9%	3.1%	4.25	4.35	+0.6
2033	31	MLB CTX	LAA	12	12	77	325	62	22	11	100%	6.4	19.0%	6.9%	12.2%	3.3%	4.44	4.56	+0.3
2034	32	MLB CTX	LAA	12	12	72	304	63	20	11	100%	6.0	20.6%	6.5%	14.1%	3.6%	4.48	4.51	+0.4
2035	33	MLB CTX	LAA	11	11	66	279	56	19	11	100%	6.0	20.1%	6.9%	13.2%	3.8%	4.65	4.76	+0.1
2036	34	MLB CTX	LAA	9	9	58	245	48	18	10	100%	6.4	19.5%	7.4%	12.1%	4.1%	4.88	5.04	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		116	116	718	3030	601	192	94	100%	6.2	19.8%	6.3%	13.5%	3.1%	4.24	3.92	+8.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		32	32	200	844	167	54	26	100%	6.2	19.8%	6.3%	13.5%	3.1%	4.24	3.92	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		103	66	383	1610	319	137	34	64%	3.7	19.8%	8.5%	11.3%	2.1%	3.74	3.65	+7.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	34	200	841	167	71	18	64%	3.7	19.8%	8.5%	11.3%	2.1%	3.74	3.65	+1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Gonzalez (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.87	18.9%	5.4%	2.4%	—	3.88	19.9%	14.3%	313	+0.01	—	—	—
Jason Forjet R 2015 · 3.36 FIP	25	SP-	3.36	17.0%	5.3%	1.9%	.290	4.48	15.9%	10.4%	102	+1.12	3.36	197	87
Noah Gotsis R 2021 · 3.48 FIP	25	SP-	3.48	16.5%	6.5%	1.7%	.296	4.25	15.9%	8.6%	90	+0.77	3.48	138	85
Steven Bruce R 2017 · 3.69 FIP	25	SW	3.69	14.9%	5.0%	2.2%	.300	3.94	15.0%	9.8%	94	+0.25	3.69	148	84
Joey Wagman R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	24	SP-	3.41	14.8%	5.3%	1.6%	.320	3.74	15.8%	7.0%	148	+0.33	3.31	238	84
Kolton Mahoney R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	25	SW	3.62	17.1%	4.4%	2.6%	.312	3.73	16.9%	9.5%	198	+0.11	3.56	302	84
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	83
Kyle Smith R 2017 · 3.31 FIP	24	SP-	3.31	15.2%	5.7%	1.4%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	159	82
Miller Hogan R 2019 · 3.39 FIP	23	SW	3.39	18.4%	3.4%	2.6%	.294	4.94	19.3%	14.1%	89	+1.55	3.39	168	81
Matt Peacock R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	24	SP-	4.20	16.0%	7.6%	2.7%	.300	4.27	13.6%	5.2%	202	+0.07	3.93	354	80
Adam Mazur R 2023 · 3.22 FIP	22	SP-	3.22	18.0%	4.9%	1.9%	.326	4.90	17.7%	10.8%	264	+1.68	3.22	360	80
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	79
Collin Lowe R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	24	SP-	3.62	15.2%	6.2%	1.8%	.292	3.11	15.1%	11.2%	75	-0.51	3.11	165	79
Martin Agosta R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP-	4.30	21.6%	6.2%	4.1%	.340	4.58	12.3%	5.7%	40	+0.28	4.30	146	79
Engert Garcia R 2023 · 3.13 FIP	23	SP-	3.13	16.9%	5.5%	1.4%	.270	4.81	14.9%	-5.3%	79	+1.68	3.13	125	78
Angel Araiza R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	78
Ryan Etsell R 2015 · 3.66 FIP	23	SP-	3.66	14.7%	6.4%	1.8%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	110	78
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.50	21.1%	13.0%	142	-0.21	1.87	251	78
Aaron Brown R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP-	3.98	19.8%	8.8%	2.6%	.337	5.89	16.8%	8.8%	186	+1.91	3.98	418	78
Brennan Smith R 2015 · 3.27 FIP	25	SP-	3.27	15.7%	6.4%	1.2%	.291	10.54	6.4%	-6.6%	14	+7.27	3.27	116	78
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.8	88	19.8%	6.2%	1.13	4.15
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Michael Fulmer ('23)	3.4	96	20.3%	7.6%	0.99	3.94
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04