Jose Gonzalez P Rocket City Trash Pandas
Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.3 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION65 act + 69 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10798vR 89
ERA3.84
FIP3.84
K%18.9%
BB%5.4%
K-BB%13.6%
ROS IP69
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 134 IP
K: -0.8 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)-1KBB: +1.5 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)+2BBCONTACT: -4.6 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)-5CONTACTSTAM: +18.2 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+18STAMTotal WAR: +1.50 (134 IP)+1.5WAR
0.00.51.00.00.70.70.60.50.30.10.00.0+$15M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
projected WAR paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit post-control
Grades · Contract
Scouting Grades
STUF4545
CTRL6060
CMD5555
K†4550
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2029
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2034
First FA Year   2035
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.6$2M+$1M
2030Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.5$1M+$0.9M
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.3$0.8M+$0.3M
2032Arb-1$2M+0.1$0.3M+$0.0M (cut)
2033Arb-2$2M
2034Arb-3$2M
Totals $3M $4M +$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
202119ROKDSL Rangers 11211461984026092%3.813.7%16.4%-2.7%0.0%2.354.02
202119ROKDSL Rangers 11211461984026092%3.820.2%13.1%7.1%0.0%2.353.06
202220ROKACL Rangers431048123275%2.425.0%6.2%18.8%4.2%10.244.07
202220ROKACL Rangers431048123275%2.425.0%6.2%18.8%4.2%10.244.24
202321MIX2 levels127301333211258%2.516.0%10.4%5.6%1.7%5.344.00
202321MIX2 levels127301333211258%2.524.1%8.3%15.8%1.5%5.342.94
202422MIX2 levels21139236712122462%4.424.7%6.7%17.9%1.1%2.452.47
202422MIX2 levels21139236712122462%4.433.0%6.0%27.0%1.1%2.451.75
202523MIX2 levels232211547811424796%5.018.6%5.7%12.9%1.3%2.972.96
202523MIX2 levels232211547811424796%5.023.8%5.0%18.8%1.5%2.972.53
▸ 2026 Season
202624AARocket City Trash Pandas1996527767251047%3.419.6%9.9%9.7%4.3%5.405.08-0.3
ROS24MLBLAA66069290551670%1.018.9%5.4%13.6%2.3%3.843.84+0.7
ROS24MLBLAA10141000%1.018.9%5.4%13.6%2.3%3.823.82+0.0
2026 TOT24MLBLAA134567122411721.5%7.2%14.4%3.0%4.604.44+1.5
2026 FULL24MLBLAA1610018.9%5.4%13.6%2.3%3.823.43+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202725MLBLAA12127029458177100%5.819.8%5.6%14.1%2.4%3.853.83+0.8
202826MLBLAA12127029460177100%5.820.2%5.9%14.4%2.4%3.863.84+0.7
202927MLBLAA11116929059187100%6.220.4%6.1%14.3%2.5%3.903.90+0.7
203028MLBLAA11116728157187100%6.120.3%6.3%14.0%2.6%3.964.00+0.5
203129MLBLAA11116426954187100%5.820.1%6.6%13.6%2.8%4.064.13+0.4
203230MLBLAA10106025250177100%6.019.8%6.9%12.9%3.0%4.214.31+0.2
203331MLBLAA995623646178100%6.219.4%7.2%12.2%3.2%4.394.51+0.0
203432MLBLAA995221841177100%5.718.9%7.6%11.3%3.4%4.604.73-0.1
203533MLBLAA884720037167100%5.918.4%8.1%10.3%3.7%4.834.98-0.2
202725MLBLAA55311312673100%6.219.8%5.6%14.1%2.3%3.833.81+0.3
202826MLBLAA884719840125100%5.920.2%5.9%14.4%2.4%3.843.82+0.4
202927MLBLAA995322446146100%5.920.4%6.1%14.3%2.5%3.883.88+0.4
203028MLBLAA995623648156100%6.220.3%6.3%14.0%2.6%3.933.97+0.4
203129MLBLAA995623648156100%6.220.1%6.6%13.6%2.7%4.034.10+0.3
203230MLBLAA995422845167100%6.019.8%6.9%12.9%2.9%4.184.28+0.2
203331MLBLAA885121542167100%6.419.4%7.2%12.2%3.1%4.364.48+0.0
203432MLBLAA884820338157100%6.018.9%7.6%11.3%3.4%4.574.70-0.1
203533MLBLAA774418634157100%6.318.4%8.1%10.3%3.6%4.794.94-0.2
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career757344118603671255397%5.919.7%6.7%13.0%2.8%4.163.84+8.0
/ 200 IP3433200844167572498%5.919.7%6.7%13.0%2.8%4.163.84+3.6
Career916535815012941292671%3.919.6%8.6%11.0%1.8%3.603.50+8.0
/ 200 IP5136200839164721571%3.919.6%8.6%11.0%1.8%3.603.50+4.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Jose Gonzalez (OGILVIE) 3.84 18.9%5.4%2.3% 3.86 20.1%14.3%208 +0.02
Hunter Dollander R 2027 · 3.81 FIP 25 SP- 3.81 19.2%5.7%2.9%.311 6.73 17.6%-0.7%51 +2.92 3.81 106 88
Nick Payero R 2026 · 4.06 FIP 24 SP- 4.06 16.5%6.3%2.8%.285 5.72 16.6%4.6%107 +1.66 4.06 178 88
Jason Forjet R 2027 · 3.33 FIP 25 SP- 3.33 17.0%5.3%1.8%.290 4.39 15.9%10.4%102 +1.06 3.33 197 87
Ricky Castro R 2026 · 3.93 FIP 24 SP- 3.93 20.4%8.6%2.7%.287 4.58 19.4%11.0%140 +0.65 3.90 202 85
Noah Gotsis R 2027 · 3.38 FIP 25 SP- 3.38 16.5%6.5%1.5%.296 4.26 15.9%8.6%90 +0.88 3.38 138 83
Kyle Smith R 2026 · 3.33 FIP 24 SP- 3.33 15.2%5.7%1.4%.325 3.33 159 83
Joey Wagman R 2026 · 3.34 FIP 24 SP- 3.34 14.8%5.3%1.5%.320 3.63 15.8%7.0%148 +0.29 3.27 238 83
Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.38 FIP 24 SP- 4.38 17.0%6.5%3.4%.293 4.16 19.1%10.5%315 -0.22 3.50 472 83
Angel Araiza R 2027 · 4.55 FIP 25 SP- 4.55 16.7%6.5%3.7%.287 3.95 15.0%7.6%193 -0.60 3.53 289 82
Braydon Tucker R 2027 · 3.24 FIP 25 SP- 3.24 18.3%7.1%1.4%.291 4.21 15.1%5.6%183 +0.97 3.24 289 81
James McArthur R 2026 · 3.53 FIP 24 SP- 3.53 19.7%7.9%2.0%.310 4.16 22.1%13.7%194 +0.63 3.53 352 81
Brennan Smith R 2027 · 3.28 FIP 25 SP- 3.28 15.7%6.4%1.3%.291 10.04 6.4%-6.6%14 +6.76 3.28 116 80
Collin Lowe R 2026 · 3.71 FIP 24 SP- 3.71 15.2%6.2%2.0%.292 3.22 15.1%11.2%75 -0.49 3.22 165 80
Martin Agosta R 2026 · 4.24 FIP 24 SP- 4.24 21.6%6.2%4.0%.340 4.51 12.3%5.7%40 +0.27 4.24 146 80
Andrew Quezada R 2026 · 4.35 FIP 24 SP- 4.35 18.1%8.1%3.2%.312 4.78 14.6%6.1%291 +0.43 4.25 412 80
Hayden Minton R 2026 · 4.53 FIP 24 SP- 4.53 19.1%7.0%3.9%.278 5.41 19.6%8.0%66 +0.88 3.96 260 80
Nick Fraze R 2026 · 3.81 FIP 24 SP 3.81 17.3%3.5%3.1%.261 5.18 17.3%6.4%157 +1.37 3.81 278 79
Jacob Kisting R 2025 · 2.74 FIP 23 SP 2.74 21.9%5.9%1.4%.251 2.74 144 79
Steven Bruce R 2027 · 3.70 FIP 25 SW 3.70 14.9%5.0%2.2%.300 3.62 15.0%9.8%94 -0.08 3.62 148 79
Deivi Villafana R 2025 · 4.22 FIP 23 SP- 4.22 14.9%6.1%2.9%.303 3.57 109 79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION106219.7%6.4%1.074.11
Nick Wittgren ('23)84121.6%7.0%1.154.04
Jesse Chavez ('24)98222.2%6.9%1.263.94
Tyler Duffey ('22)85923.0%6.8%1.254.57
Tommy Hunter ('23)74121.2%5.7%1.003.72
Joe Smith ('22)74422.5%6.4%1.083.67
Jake McGee ('22)84423.3%6.3%1.344.27