Jose Gonzalez

P Rocket City Trash Pandas

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.9 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP35OGV rank#572ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	21	13	92	2.45	1.75	33.0%	6.0%	—	K 24.7% · BB 6.7% · FIP 2.47
2025	23	MIX2 levels	23	22	115	2.97	2.53	23.8%	5.0%	—	K 18.6% · BB 5.7% · FIP 3.08
2026	24	AALAA	32	10	92	5.77	4.52	25.3%	8.3%	—	K 20.5% · BB 9.1% · FIP 5.49
2027PROJ	25	MLBLAA	1	1	1	4.59	4.59	19.5%	6.9%	0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBLAA	6	6	39	4.59	4.58	20.0%	6.9%	0.4
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBLAA	8	8	52	4.58	4.59	20.1%	7.1%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control60Command55

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 0.8, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 92%

CompsRicky Castro (age 24) · Nick Payero (age 24) · Hunter Dollander (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.59

FIP4.59

K%19.5%

BB%6.9%

K-BB%12.6%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$14M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL6060

CMD5555

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers 1	12	11	46	198	40	26	0	92%	3.8	13.7%	16.4%	-2.7%	0.0%	2.35	4.02	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers 1	12	11	46	198	40	26	0	92%	3.8	20.2%	13.1%	7.1%	0.0%	2.35	3.06	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	4	3	10	48	12	3	2	75%	2.4	25.0%	6.2%	18.8%	4.2%	10.24	4.07	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	4	3	10	48	12	3	2	75%	2.4	25.0%	6.2%	18.8%	4.2%	10.24	4.24	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	7	30	133	32	11	2	58%	2.5	16.0%	10.4%	5.6%	1.9%	5.34	4.11	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	7	30	133	32	11	2	58%	2.5	24.1%	8.3%	15.8%	1.5%	5.34	2.94	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	13	92	367	121	22	4	62%	4.4	24.7%	6.7%	17.9%	1.1%	2.45	2.47	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	13	92	367	121	22	4	62%	4.4	24.7%	6.7%	17.9%	1.1%	2.45	2.47	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	13	92	367	121	22	4	62%	4.4	33.0%	6.0%	27.0%	1.1%	2.45	1.75	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	115	478	114	24	7	96%	5.0	18.6%	5.7%	12.9%	1.5%	2.97	3.08	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	115	478	114	24	7	96%	5.0	18.6%	5.7%	12.9%	1.5%	2.97	3.08	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	22	115	478	114	24	7	96%	5.0	23.8%	5.0%	18.8%	1.5%	2.97	2.53	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	32	10	92	399	101	33	18	31%	2.9	20.5%	9.1%	11.4%	5.4%	5.77	5.49	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	32	10	92	399	101	33	18	31%	2.9	20.5%	9.1%	11.4%	5.4%	5.77	5.49	—
2026	24	AA RAW	Rocket City Trash Pandas	32	10	92	399	101	33	18	31%	2.9	25.3%	8.3%	17.0%	4.5%	5.77	4.52	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	LAA	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	19.5%	6.9%	12.6%	3.4%	4.59	4.59	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	LAA	14	14	88	373	74	26	13	100%	6.3	20.0%	6.9%	13.1%	3.4%	4.55	4.54	+0.9
2029	27	MLB MLE	LAA	13	13	82	348	70	25	12	100%	6.3	20.1%	7.1%	13.1%	3.4%	4.54	4.55	+0.8
2030	28	MLB MLE	LAA	13	13	78	328	66	24	11	100%	6.0	20.1%	7.2%	12.8%	3.5%	4.58	4.62	+0.7
2031	29	MLB MLE	LAA	12	12	72	304	60	23	11	100%	6.0	19.9%	7.5%	12.4%	3.6%	4.67	4.74	+0.5
2032	30	MLB MLE	LAA	11	11	65	274	54	21	11	100%	5.9	19.6%	7.8%	11.8%	3.8%	4.82	4.92	+0.4
2028	26	MLB CTX	LAA	6	6	39	165	33	11	6	100%	6.5	20.0%	6.9%	13.1%	3.5%	4.59	4.58	+0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	LAA	8	8	52	220	44	16	8	100%	6.5	20.1%	7.1%	13.1%	3.5%	4.58	4.59	+0.5
2030	28	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	59	249	50	18	9	100%	5.9	20.1%	7.2%	12.8%	3.6%	4.62	4.66	+0.5
2031	29	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	59	249	50	19	9	100%	5.9	19.9%	7.5%	12.4%	3.7%	4.71	4.78	+0.4
2032	30	MLB CTX	LAA	9	9	56	236	46	18	9	100%	6.2	19.6%	7.8%	11.8%	3.9%	4.86	4.96	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		43	43	264	1115	222	82	41	100%	6.1	19.9%	7.3%	12.6%	3.6%	4.68	4.34	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		32	32	200	844	168	62	31	100%	6.2	19.9%	7.3%	12.6%	3.6%	4.68	4.34	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		104	66	385	1623	322	138	37	63%	3.7	19.8%	8.5%	11.3%	2.3%	3.81	3.76	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	34	200	844	167	72	19	63%	3.7	19.8%	8.5%	11.3%	2.3%	3.81	3.76	+1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 92 IPFIP 4.49 → 5.49 (+1.01)K% 25.3% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.31%	—	×0.810	20.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.27%	—	×1.100	9.10%
HR / BF /BF	4.51%	÷1.000	×1.200	5.41%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.49 → 5.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Hub City Spartanburgers · 86 IPFIP 2.68 → 3.30 (+0.62)K% 25.4% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.35%	—	×0.770	19.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.07%	—	×1.150	5.83%
HR / BF /BF	1.97%	÷1.215	×1.250	2.03%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 143).

Result: FIP 2.68 → 3.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 29 IPFIP 2.07 → 2.45 (+0.37)K% 19.5% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.51%	—	×0.810	15.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.88%	—	×1.100	5.37%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.976	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.07 → 2.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ADown East Wood Ducks · 88 IPFIP 1.48 → 2.47 (+1.00)K% 33.3% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.740	24.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.70%	—	×1.180	6.72%
HR / BF /BF	0.85%	÷1.008	×1.300	1.10%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 102).

Result: FIP 1.48 → 2.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Rangers · 30 IPFIP 3.00 → 4.11 (+1.10)K% 23.5% → 16.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.48%	—	×0.680	15.97%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×1.250	10.42%
HR / BF /BF	1.52%	÷1.124	×1.400	1.89%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 125).

Result: FIP 3.00 → 4.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKACL Rangers · 10 IPFIP 4.07 → 5.80 (+1.73)K% 25.0% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.680	17.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.25%	—	×1.250	7.81%
HR / BF /BF	4.17%	÷1.018	×1.400	5.73%

Result: FIP 4.07 → 5.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKDSL Rangers 1 · 46 IPFIP 3.06 → 4.02 (+0.96)K% 20.2% → 13.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.20%	—	×0.680	13.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.13%	—	×1.250	16.41%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.039	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.06 → 4.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Gonzalez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.59	19.5%	6.9%	3.4%	—	4.57	20.1%	13.0%	248	-0.02	—	—	—
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	86
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	84
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	82
Noah Gotsis R 2021 · 3.48 FIP	25	SP-	3.48	16.5%	6.5%	1.7%	.296	4.25	15.9%	8.6%	90	+0.77	3.48	138	82
Parker Curry R 2019 · 4.79 FIP	25	SP-	4.79	17.8%	5.4%	4.6%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	256	82
Angel Araiza R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	82
Steven Bruce R 2017 · 3.69 FIP	25	SW	3.69	14.9%	5.0%	2.2%	.300	3.94	15.0%	9.8%	94	+0.25	3.69	148	82
Kolton Mahoney R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	25	SW	3.62	17.1%	4.4%	2.6%	.312	3.73	16.9%	9.5%	198	+0.11	3.56	302	81
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	80
James Hicks R 2024 · 4.23 FIP	23	SW	4.23	19.6%	7.2%	3.4%	.338	4.60	17.1%	9.7%	166	+0.37	4.23	272	80
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.40	21.6%	13.7%	145	-0.31	1.85	254	80
Kyle Scott R 2024 · 4.12 FIP	22	SP-	4.12	17.7%	8.2%	2.7%	.269	3.94	15.9%	4.3%	42	-0.18	3.94	138	80
Jeremy Hefner R 2012 · 3.56 FIP	26	SP-	3.56	15.2%	4.2%	2.2%	.316	4.33	17.8%	11.9%	131	+0.77	3.56	322	80
Blake Money R 2024 · 3.46 FIP	22	SP-	3.46	20.7%	6.9%	2.2%	.281	4.00	23.6%	14.1%	121	+0.54	3.46	224	79
Ryan Tapani R 2019 · 3.86 FIP	25	SW	3.86	19.0%	7.3%	2.6%	.331	5.56	20.8%	10.6%	47	+1.70	3.86	141	79
Chase Whitley R 2014 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	18.2%	5.5%	2.8%	.347	3.60	18.5%	11.9%	136	-0.21	3.09	235	79
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.39	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.39	3.65	301	79
Brian Lawrence R 2001 · 3.53 FIP	25	SP-	3.53	17.4%	6.0%	2.1%	.269	3.98	14.6%	9.2%	624	+0.45	3.33	963	79
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	78
TJ Shook R 2023 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	21.0%	9.6%	3.6%	.273	4.02	21.6%	12.8%	192	-0.49	3.35	452	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	76	19.9%	7.2%	1.36	4.62
Rich Monteleone ('87-'96, 2 WAR*)	1.8	71	18.7%*	7.5%*	1.39*	4.03*
Joe Biagini ('21)	1.7	83	19.0%	7.9%	1.28	5.03
Blas Minor ('97)	1.1	75	19.2%	7.3%	1.16	4.40
Adam Morgan ('21)	1.8	62	20.8%	7.2%	1.58	4.80
Ron Taylor ('62-'72, 3 WAR*)	4.0	80	17.8%*	6.8%*	1.26*	4.74*
Keith Atherton ('83-'89, 2 WAR*)	2.8	81	19.9%*	8.7%*	1.39*	4.24*