Jose Gonzalez — OGILVIE

Jose Gonzalez P Rocket City Trash Pandas

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.3 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION65 act + 69 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10798vR 89

ERA3.84

FIP3.84

K%18.9%

BB%5.4%

K-BB%13.6%

ROS IP69

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 134 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL6060

CMD5555

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	19	ROK	DSL Rangers 1	12	11	46	198	40	26	0	92%	3.8	13.7%	16.4%	-2.7%	0.0%	2.35	4.02	—
2021	19	ROK	DSL Rangers 1	12	11	46	198	40	26	0	92%	3.8	20.2%	13.1%	7.1%	0.0%	2.35	3.06	—
2022	20	ROK	ACL Rangers	4	3	10	48	12	3	2	75%	2.4	25.0%	6.2%	18.8%	4.2%	10.24	4.07	—
2022	20	ROK	ACL Rangers	4	3	10	48	12	3	2	75%	2.4	25.0%	6.2%	18.8%	4.2%	10.24	4.24	—
2023	21	MIX	2 levels	12	7	30	133	32	11	2	58%	2.5	16.0%	10.4%	5.6%	1.7%	5.34	4.00	—
2023	21	MIX	2 levels	12	7	30	133	32	11	2	58%	2.5	24.1%	8.3%	15.8%	1.5%	5.34	2.94	—
2024	22	MIX	2 levels	21	13	92	367	121	22	4	62%	4.4	24.7%	6.7%	17.9%	1.1%	2.45	2.47	—
2024	22	MIX	2 levels	21	13	92	367	121	22	4	62%	4.4	33.0%	6.0%	27.0%	1.1%	2.45	1.75	—
2025	23	MIX	2 levels	23	22	115	478	114	24	7	96%	5.0	18.6%	5.7%	12.9%	1.3%	2.97	2.96	—
2025	23	MIX	2 levels	23	22	115	478	114	24	7	96%	5.0	23.8%	5.0%	18.8%	1.5%	2.97	2.53	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	24	AA	Rocket City Trash Pandas	19	9	65	277	67	25	10	47%	3.4	19.6%	9.9%	9.7%	4.3%	5.40	5.08	-0.3
ROS	24	MLB	LAA	66	0	69	290	55	16	7	0%	1.0	18.9%	5.4%	13.6%	2.3%	3.84	3.84	+0.7
ROS	24	MLB	LAA	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	18.9%	5.4%	13.6%	2.3%	3.82	3.82	+0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB	LAA	—	—	134	567	122	41	17	—	—	21.5%	7.2%	14.4%	3.0%	4.60	4.44	+1.5
2026 FULL	24	MLB	LAA	—	—	1	6	1	0	0	—	—	18.9%	5.4%	13.6%	2.3%	3.82	3.43	+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	25	MLB	LAA	12	12	70	294	58	17	7	100%	5.8	19.8%	5.6%	14.1%	2.4%	3.85	3.83	+0.8
2028	26	MLB	LAA	12	12	70	294	60	17	7	100%	5.8	20.2%	5.9%	14.4%	2.4%	3.86	3.84	+0.7
2029	27	MLB	LAA	11	11	69	290	59	18	7	100%	6.2	20.4%	6.1%	14.3%	2.5%	3.90	3.90	+0.7
2030	28	MLB	LAA	11	11	67	281	57	18	7	100%	6.1	20.3%	6.3%	14.0%	2.6%	3.96	4.00	+0.5
2031	29	MLB	LAA	11	11	64	269	54	18	7	100%	5.8	20.1%	6.6%	13.6%	2.8%	4.06	4.13	+0.4
2027	25	MLB	LAA	5	5	31	131	26	7	3	100%	6.2	19.8%	5.6%	14.1%	2.3%	3.83	3.81	+0.3
2028	26	MLB	LAA	8	8	47	198	40	12	5	100%	5.9	20.2%	5.9%	14.4%	2.4%	3.84	3.82	+0.4
2029	27	MLB	LAA	9	9	53	224	46	14	6	100%	5.9	20.4%	6.1%	14.3%	2.5%	3.88	3.88	+0.4
2030	28	MLB	LAA	9	9	56	236	48	15	6	100%	6.2	20.3%	6.3%	14.0%	2.6%	3.93	3.97	+0.4
2031	29	MLB	LAA	9	9	56	236	48	15	6	100%	6.2	20.1%	6.6%	13.6%	2.7%	4.03	4.10	+0.3
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			42	41	244	1029	208	63	26	98%	5.8	20.2%	6.1%	14.1%	2.5%	3.91	3.55	+5.3
/ 200 IP	—			34	33	200	844	171	52	21	97%	5.8	20.2%	6.1%	14.1%	2.5%	3.91	3.55	+4.3
Career	—			91	65	358	1501	294	129	26	71%	3.9	19.6%	8.6%	11.0%	1.8%	3.60	3.50	+8.0
/ 200 IP	—			51	36	200	839	164	72	15	71%	3.9	19.6%	8.6%	11.0%	1.8%	3.60	3.50	+4.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Gonzalez (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.84	18.9%	5.4%	2.3%	—	3.86	20.1%	14.3%	208	+0.02	—	—	—
Hunter Dollander R 2027 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	19.2%	5.7%	2.9%	.311	6.73	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.92	3.81	106	88
Nick Payero R 2026 · 4.06 FIP	24	SP-	4.06	16.5%	6.3%	2.8%	.285	5.72	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.66	4.06	178	88
Jason Forjet R 2027 · 3.33 FIP	25	SP-	3.33	17.0%	5.3%	1.8%	.290	4.39	15.9%	10.4%	102	+1.06	3.33	197	87
Ricky Castro R 2026 · 3.93 FIP	24	SP-	3.93	20.4%	8.6%	2.7%	.287	4.58	19.4%	11.0%	140	+0.65	3.90	202	85
Noah Gotsis R 2027 · 3.38 FIP	25	SP-	3.38	16.5%	6.5%	1.5%	.296	4.26	15.9%	8.6%	90	+0.88	3.38	138	83
Kyle Smith R 2026 · 3.33 FIP	24	SP-	3.33	15.2%	5.7%	1.4%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	159	83
Joey Wagman R 2026 · 3.34 FIP	24	SP-	3.34	14.8%	5.3%	1.5%	.320	3.63	15.8%	7.0%	148	+0.29	3.27	238	83
Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.38 FIP	24	SP-	4.38	17.0%	6.5%	3.4%	.293	4.16	19.1%	10.5%	315	-0.22	3.50	472	83
Angel Araiza R 2027 · 4.55 FIP	25	SP-	4.55	16.7%	6.5%	3.7%	.287	3.95	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.60	3.53	289	82
Braydon Tucker R 2027 · 3.24 FIP	25	SP-	3.24	18.3%	7.1%	1.4%	.291	4.21	15.1%	5.6%	183	+0.97	3.24	289	81
James McArthur R 2026 · 3.53 FIP	24	SP-	3.53	19.7%	7.9%	2.0%	.310	4.16	22.1%	13.7%	194	+0.63	3.53	352	81
Brennan Smith R 2027 · 3.28 FIP	25	SP-	3.28	15.7%	6.4%	1.3%	.291	10.04	6.4%	-6.6%	14	+6.76	3.28	116	80
Collin Lowe R 2026 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP-	3.71	15.2%	6.2%	2.0%	.292	3.22	15.1%	11.2%	75	-0.49	3.22	165	80
Martin Agosta R 2026 · 4.24 FIP	24	SP-	4.24	21.6%	6.2%	4.0%	.340	4.51	12.3%	5.7%	40	+0.27	4.24	146	80
Andrew Quezada R 2026 · 4.35 FIP	24	SP-	4.35	18.1%	8.1%	3.2%	.312	4.78	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.43	4.25	412	80
Hayden Minton R 2026 · 4.53 FIP	24	SP-	4.53	19.1%	7.0%	3.9%	.278	5.41	19.6%	8.0%	66	+0.88	3.96	260	80
Nick Fraze R 2026 · 3.81 FIP	24	SP	3.81	17.3%	3.5%	3.1%	.261	5.18	17.3%	6.4%	157	+1.37	3.81	278	79
Jacob Kisting R 2025 · 2.74 FIP	23	SP	2.74	21.9%	5.9%	1.4%	.251	—	—	—	—	—	2.74	144	79
Steven Bruce R 2027 · 3.70 FIP	25	SW	3.70	14.9%	5.0%	2.2%	.300	3.62	15.0%	9.8%	94	-0.08	3.62	148	79
Deivi Villafana R 2025 · 4.22 FIP	23	SP-	4.22	14.9%	6.1%	2.9%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.57	109	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6	68	20.0%	6.0%	0.97	3.91
Tommy Hunter ('23)	7	41	21.2%	5.7%	1.00	3.72
Adam Cimber ('24)	6	52	18.3%	6.6%	0.75	3.75
Nick Vincent ('20)	6	45	22.7%	6.3%	1.13	3.71
Joe Smith ('22)	7	44	22.5%	6.4%	1.08	3.67
Tony Watson ('21)	6	64	21.0%	6.4%	0.91	3.09
Brandon Kintzler ('21)	6	50	16.2%	6.3%	0.91	3.57