Kam Durnin — OGILVIE

Kam DurninSS Fayetteville Woodpeckers

Age 22 R/R A HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 97 proj PA

wRC+†69

AVG/OBP/SLG.203 / .278 / .310

PA97

HR2

K%31

BB%8

ISO108

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 44 / POW 42

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT44

scouting grade only

POWER42

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED52

scouting grade only

DEFENSE52

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Arb-1	$0.4M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$0.6M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	21	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	91	75	20	4	0	2	12	24	3	10	1	267	389	400	789	133	360	26	13	358	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	91	79	16	3	0	1	8	33	3	10	1	203	300	278	578	76	314	36	9	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	91	79	16	3	0	1	8	33	3	10	1	203	300	278	578	76	326	36	9	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	91	75	20	4	0	2	12	24	3	10	1	267	389	400	789	133	360	26	13	358	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	91	80	16	3	0	1	8	33	3	10	1	200	300	275	575	75	314	36	9	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	91	80	16	3	0	1	8	33	3	10	1	200	300	275	575	75	314	36	9	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	HOU	0%	201	180	37	6	1	4	16	61	3	5	1	205	280	313	593	108	285	30	8	270	69	-7	+1	-0	+2	+4	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	HOU	25%	186	166	35	6	1	4	15	56	3	4	1	208	283	320	604	112	286	30	8	274	72	-6	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.0
2029	24	MLB MLE	HOU	36%	296	266	56	10	1	6	24	88	4	7	1	211	286	326	612	115	287	30	8	278	74	-9	+1	+1	+3	+6	0.2
2030	25	MLB MLE	HOU	43%	364	327	70	12	2	8	29	106	5	8	1	213	288	331	619	118	288	29	8	280	76	-11	+1	+1	+4	+8	0.3
2031	26	MLB MLE	HOU	47%	407	365	79	14	2	9	33	117	6	8	1	215	289	335	624	120	287	29	8	282	77	-11	+1	+1	+4	+9	0.4
2032	27	MLB MLE	HOU	48%	427	383	82	15	2	9	35	122	6	9	1	215	290	336	626	121	287	29	8	283	78	-11	+1	+1	+5	+9	0.5
2033	28	MLB MLE	HOU	52%	437	393	84	15	2	9	35	126	6	8	1	213	288	331	619	118	286	29	8	280	76	-13	+1	+0	+5	+9	0.3
2034	29	MLB MLE	HOU	55%	435	391	83	15	2	9	35	127	6	8	1	211	285	325	611	114	285	29	8	277	74	-14	+1	-1	+5	+9	0.1
2035	30	MLB MLE	HOU	57%	431	389	80	14	2	8	34	127	5	7	1	208	282	318	600	110	284	29	8	272	71	-15	+1	-1	+5	+9	-0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	HOU	25%	46	41	9	2	0	1	4	14	1	1	0	211	285	323	609	112	290	30	9	276	72	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.0
2029	24	MLB CTX	HOU	36%	107	95	21	4	1	2	9	32	2	2	0	214	288	329	617	116	291	30	8	280	74	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	HOU	43%	156	140	31	6	1	3	13	46	2	3	0	215	290	334	624	118	292	29	8	282	76	-5	+1	+0	+2	+3	0.1
2031	26	MLB CTX	HOU	47%	189	169	37	7	1	4	15	55	3	4	1	217	292	337	629	121	292	29	8	284	77	-5	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.2
2032	27	MLB CTX	HOU	48%	203	182	39	7	1	4	16	58	3	4	1	218	292	339	631	121	292	29	8	285	78	-5	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.2
2033	28	MLB CTX	HOU	52%	229	205	44	8	1	5	19	66	3	4	1	216	290	334	625	118	291	29	8	282	76	-7	+0	+0	+2	+5	0.1
2034	29	MLB CTX	HOU	55%	240	216	47	9	1	5	19	70	3	4	1	214	288	328	616	115	290	29	8	279	74	-8	+0	-0	+3	+5	0.0
2035	30	MLB CTX	HOU	57%	247	222	47	9	1	5	20	73	3	4	1	211	284	321	605	110	288	30	8	275	71	-9	+0	-1	+3	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1417	1270	275	52	7	29	115	414	20	26	5	217	292	337	629	120	295	29	8	281	74	-43	+3	+0	+15	+31	0.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	583	126	24	3	13	53	190	9	12	2	216	291	334	626	118	295	29	8	281	74	-20	+1	+0	+7	+14	0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	3171	2847	603	107	14	65	256	932	45	72	9	212	287	328	615	116	288	29	8	278	74	-93	+9	+1	+33	+67	1.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	584	123	22	3	13	52	191	9	15	2	211	285	325	611	115	287	29	8	278	74	-20	+2	+0	+7	+14	0.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#2Garrett Hampsonlast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,805 PA	2.7	1,805	29	65	234	296	352	+10	+10	3.9	3.9
/162	664	11	24	+3.6	+3.7	1.4	pk7: 4
#3Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	2.3	1,514	31	30	213	284	329	+16	+4	1.6	1.6
/162	664	13	13	+7.1	+1.8	0.7	pk7: 2
#4Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#5Abraham Torolast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,561 PA	2.4	1,561	39	16	220	282	351	-1	-8	-0.5	-0.5
/162	664	17	7	-0.2	-3.2	-0.2	pk7: -0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Kam Durnin (OGILVIE)	22	30→44	40→42	55→52	50	203/278/310	107	285	2	3	31%	8%	69	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Juan Mora 2022 · A	22	44	42→45	55	47	215/295/325	110	284	9	14	26%	8%	78	-0.3	222/280/325	103	297	9	9	27%	6%	72	-0.7	218/275/319	102	286	9	8	26%	5%	67	-0.5
✕Christian Cairo 2023 · A	22	40→49	39→40	53→60	50	187/295/270	83	292	6	16	34%	11%	67	-1.1	210/302/291	81	303	5	23	29%	10%	73	-0.6	219/314/286	67	298	3	31	25%	10%	75	-0.4
✕Cooper Bowman 2022 · A	22	44	45	56→60	41	214/289/346	132	303	12	19	32%	7%	81	-0.1	204/281/321	117	287	12	34	31%	8%	72	-0.7	210/283/330	120	279	11	40	27%	8%	72	-0.5
✕Jack Brannigan 2023 · A	22	42	43→50	48→50	43	204/277/310	106	298	11	13	33%	8%	68	-1.0	202/279/357	155	294	19	17	36%	8%	80	-0.2	186/267/343	157	262	20	18	36%	8%	70	-0.5
✕Jared Serna 2024 · A	22	45→48	45	53→50	45	226/284/352	126	276	13	18	23%	7%	79	-0.2	214/271/321	107	261	11	15	22%	6%	68	-1.0	202/265/300	97	245	10	16	21%	6%	58	-1.4
✕Christopher Bostick 2015 · A	22	43→53	44→45	52→55	40	213/267/336	123	296	11	15	31%	6%	69	-0.9	229/277/342	113	302	9	14	26%	5%	74	-0.6	245/298/359	114	318	9	7	25%	6%	83	+0.0
✕Jeter Downs 2019 · A	21	42→41	43→50	52→55	44	208/273/317	109	269	11	18	26%	7%	68	-1.0	210/276/360	150	277	17	18	29%	7%	79	-0.2	176/270/315	139	246	15	26	33%	9%	66	-0.6
✕Jack Payton 2024 · A	22	45	40→45	51→45	38	216/272/307	91	306	8	9	31%	5%	65	-1.2	213/291/319	106	300	9	6	30%	8%	75	-0.5	211/289/318	107	294	9	6	29%	8%	73	-0.3
✕Johan Lopez 2022 · A	22	44	44→45	56→55	44	210/292/329	119	303	11	16	32%	8%	78	-0.3	197/269/298	101	299	9	12	35%	8%	62	-1.4	173/246/259	86	259	8	12	34%	7%	43	-1.0
✕Cayden Wallace 2024 · AA	22	45→49	44→50	53→50	45	220/280/345	125	285	10	13	26%	7%	76	-0.4	226/279/351	125	289	12	13	25%	6%	77	-0.3	232/281/372	140	285	16	15	24%	5%	80	-0.1
✕Matt Williams 2012 · A	22	44→48	42→40	54→50	44	214/276/325	110	275	9	16	25%	6%	70	-0.8	220/271/305	85	275	6	14	21%	6%	63	-1.4	216/290/277	61	280	3	15	22%	9%	63	-0.8
✕Tyler Goeddel 2015 · A	22	46→52	41→45	56→55	42	218/276/326	108	307	7	18	30%	6%	70	-0.8	229/288/340	111	296	9	17	24%	7%	78	-0.3	228/291/335	107	287	8	18	22%	7%	75	-0.3
✕Dakota Harris 2024 · A	22	44→52	40→45	52→55	38	209/272/303	94	305	7	11	32%	6%	64	-1.3	230/277/334	104	296	11	15	25%	5%	73	-0.6	231/281/335	104	291	12	21	24%	5%	71	-0.5
✕Francisco Acuna 2022 · A	22	38→47	39→45	48→50	45	184/277/270	87	267	6	10	31%	8%	60	-1.6	204/274/301	97	277	7	11	27%	6%	65	-1.2	213/284/310	97	279	9	16	25%	7%	68	-0.5
✕Brice Matthews 2024 · A	22	45	44→50	54→60	46	211/306/329	118	322	12	22	35%	10%	84	+0.1	217/298/371	154	326	18	30	36%	9%	90	+0.6	208/288/365	156	305	19	33	36%	9%	82	+0.0
✕Peyton Graham 2024 · A	23	42→52	39→45	53→60	42	200/268/288	87	292	7	17	32%	7%	59	-1.6	211/289/307	96	293	7	23	28%	8%	72	-0.7	224/305/325	101	305	8	36	27%	8%	79	-0.1
✕Justin Trapp 2013 · A	22	43→45	42→45	54→55	40	210/267/318	107	293	9	17	30%	6%	65	-1.2	216/269/308	92	294	8	15	28%	6%	63	-1.3	213/266/293	80	288	8	16	27%	5%	56	-1.5
✕John Peck 2024 · A	22	45→54	37→45	52→55	47	210/296/285	75	305	5	17	30%	9%	70	-0.9	233/286/334	101	338	8	24	31%	6%	76	-0.4	243/293/356	113	343	10	27	31%	6%	81	-0.1
✕Brayan Buelvas 2024 · AA	22	37→45	46→50	55	41	190/252/319	129	260	13	18	32%	7%	61	-1.5	204/265/326	122	293	11	16	32%	7%	66	-1.1	205/266/334	130	290	12	14	32%	7%	66	-0.8
✕Marcus Wilson 2019 · A	22	44→51	43→50	49→50	41	212/273/323	110	310	10	12	33%	7%	68	-1.0	207/276/339	132	334	14	13	39%	8%	74	-0.6	191/276/341	150	316	16	16	41%	9%	72	-0.5

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps