Cameron Nelson — OGILVIE

Cameron NelsonOF Fresno Grizzlies

Age 22 L/L 5'11" / 185 lbs A HR +30%H +12% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION338 act + 225 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†74

AVG/OBP/SLG.192 / .304 / .307

PA225

HR4

SB8

K%32

BB%12

BABIP279

ISO114

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 28 / POW 44

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT28

scouting grade only

POWER44

scouting grade only

EYE72

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$1M	+$0.8M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	22	A	COL	—	338	282	52	8	4	5	45	121	6	19	4	184	309	294	604	110	297	36	13	271	66	-13	+2	+0	-2	+10	-0.3
YTD	22	A	COL	—	338	263	62	10	5	6	64	90	6	19	4	236	396	380	777	144	331	27	19	354	129	+11	+2	+0	-2	+10	2.1
ROS	22	A	COL	0%	225	192	37	6	2	4	28	71	3	8	2	192	304	307	611	114	279	32	12	282	74	-7	+1	+0	-1	+6	-0.1
ROS	22	MLB	COL	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		300	—	—	288	79	—	—	+0	-0	—	—
FULL	22	A	COL	—	338	283	52	8	4	5	45	121	6	19	4	184	309	293	603	110	296	36	13	271	66	-13	+2	+0	-2	+10	-0.3
TOT	22	A	COL	—	563	474	89	14	6	9	73	192	9	27	6	188	307	299	607	112	290	34	13	275	69	-20	+3	+0	-3	+16	-0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	COL	34%	570	490	98	17	4	11	68	173	7	15	3	200	306	318	625	118	279	30	12	288	78	-14	+2	+0	-3	+16	0.1
2028	24	MLB	COL	46%	597	515	106	18	5	13	70	177	7	15	3	206	309	336	645	130	281	30	12	292	82	-12	+2	+0	-4	+17	0.3
2029	25	MLB	COL	52%	615	530	110	19	5	13	72	179	8	15	3	208	311	336	647	128	282	29	12	295	84	-11	+2	+0	-4	+17	0.5
2030	26	MLB	COL	54%	627	541	114	20	5	14	73	182	8	16	3	211	314	344	657	133	282	29	12	296	85	-11	+2	+0	-4	+18	0.5
2031	27	MLB	COL	54%	629	542	114	20	5	14	74	183	8	16	3	210	314	343	657	133	282	29	12	296	85	-11	+2	+0	-4	+18	0.5
2027	23	MLB	COL	34%	196	169	36	6	2	4	23	59	2	5	1	213	314	343	658	130	300	30	12	296	85	-3	+1	+0	-1	+6	0.2
2028	24	MLB	COL	46%	275	238	52	9	2	7	32	81	3	7	2	218	319	361	680	143	303	29	12	302	89	-3	+1	+0	-2	+8	0.3
2029	25	MLB	COL	52%	318	274	62	11	3	8	37	93	4	8	2	226	327	376	703	150	304	29	12	305	92	-3	+1	+0	-2	+9	0.5
2030	26	MLB	COL	54%	340	294	67	12	3	9	39	99	4	8	2	228	326	381	707	153	304	29	11	306	93	-3	+1	+0	-2	+10	0.6
2031	27	MLB	COL	54%	341	294	67	12	3	9	40	99	4	8	2	228	328	381	709	153	303	29	12	306	93	-3	+1	+0	-2	+10	0.6
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1470	1270	284	50	13	37	171	431	17	36	9	224	324	371	695	147	305	29	12	304	91	-15	+4	+0	-9	+42	2.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	562	125	22	6	16	76	191	8	16	4	222	325	368	693	146	304	29	12	304	91	-7	+2	+0	-4	+18	0.9
Career	—			—	3263	2810	579	100	26	69	385	965	41	85	17	206	311	334	644	128	285	30	12	293	82	-65	+10	+0	-20	+92	1.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	560	115	20	5	14	77	192	8	17	3	205	310	334	644	129	283	30	12	293	82	-13	+2	+0	-4	+18	0.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
	/162	664	20	20	241	309	409	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#3Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	7	2,198	35	52	238	326	354	-4	-3	4.3	4.3
#3Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	/162	664	11	16	238	326	354	-1.3	-0.8	1.3	pk7: 4
#4Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#5Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
#6Doug Glanvillelast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,256 PA	5	2,256	35	90	259	290	356	-9	+3	1.3	1.3
	/162	664	10	26	259	290	356	-2.8	+0.9	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	1,790	38	44	206	306	333	-11	+0	0.8	0.8
	/162	664	14	16	206	306	333	-4.0	+0.0	0.3	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Cameron Nelson (OGILVIE)	22	23→28	39→44	55→60	72	188/307/299	112	290	9	27	34%	13%	69	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Brian O'Grady 2015 · A	23	39→37	43→60	54→50	47	196/261/312	115	255	9	8	26%	8%	56	-1.3	187/269/294	107	266	9	14	31%	9%	56	-1.3	207/269/398	192	270	24	15	32%	7%	82	+0.3
●Jakob Marsee 2023 · A	22	44→48	43→50	58→60	54	209/313/325	116	289	9	21	28%	12%	83	+0.6	220/319/358	138	276	15	33	24%	11%	94	+1.3	216/315/358	142	266	16	40	24%	11%	89	+1.0
✕Drew Robinson 2014 · A	22	41→40	44→55	49→50	45	201/281/320	119	294	11	8	33%	9%	68	-0.5	192/266/342	150	282	16	11	36%	9%	67	-0.5	213/286/393	179	309	20	12	36%	9%	85	+0.5
✕Nolan Fontana 2014 · A	23	42→43	39→40	52→50	58	198/312/287	89	285	6	14	30%	14%	73	-0.1	204/300/291	87	305	4	9	30%	12%	69	-0.4	184/288/308	124	252	11	12	29%	12%	68	-0.2
✕Chris Meyers 2022 · A	23	40→44	42→55	51→45	45	198/266/301	103	259	9	11	26%	7%	56	-1.3	220/277/364	144	296	17	6	30%	6%	78	+0.2	223/282/380	157	291	20	3	30%	6%	81	+0.3
✕Mike Papi 2015 · A	22	37→47	41→45	50→45	49	186/264/279	93	248	9	7	28%	10%	50	-1.7	199/277/309	110	280	10	5	30%	9%	63	-0.8	211/294/337	126	281	14	4	28%	10%	76	+0.1
✕Trey Sweeney 2023 · AA	23	39→43	48→50	57→55	46	198/276/341	142	266	15	19	30%	9%	71	-0.3	217/288/368	151	280	17	17	28%	8%	83	+0.6	218/288/372	154	276	19	17	27%	8%	81	+0.3
✕Iverson Leonardo 2023 · A	21	37	44→50	49→50	39	187/256/305	118	276	12	9	35%	7%	54	-1.4	197/279/292	95	352	7	8	42%	9%	60	-1.0	146/272/221	75	359	3	4	52%	12%	39	-0.5
✕River Town 2023 · A	24	39→36	44→40	55→50	44	196/275/315	119	256	11	15	27%	7%	64	-0.8	212/300/304	92	266	8	14	22%	9%	72	-0.2	211/311/283	71	261	6	15	19%	10%	69	-0.2
✕Carlos Guzman 2008 · A	22	39→48	43→50	53→50	44	194/277/307	113	282	11	9	33%	9%	63	-0.8	224/271/333	109	314	11	8	31%	6%	66	-0.6	231/283/327	97	303	10	3	26%	6%	67	-0.3
✕Dillon Paulson 2019 · A	22	41→37	47→50	50→30	48	207/281/353	146	266	14	4	27%	9%	76	+0.1	206/284/338	132	300	13	4	33%	10%	74	-0.1	196/280/329	133	277	13	2	32%	10%	67	-0.3
✕Adonis Pacheco 2013 · A	22	45	39→50	57→55	45	213/271/312	99	277	4	16	24%	7%	60	-1.0	204/258/296	92	260	5	11	22%	6%	50	-1.7	160/206/240	80	191	3	9	17%	6%	11	-1.2
✕Hoy Park 2018 · A	22	43→49	40→45	58→55	46	205/275/300	94	276	6	17	27%	8%	59	-1.1	222/298/307	85	300	5	16	25%	9%	71	-0.3	227/314/325	98	300	8	17	25%	10%	79	+0.2
✕Kameron Misner 2021 · A	23	46→43	39→50	54→55	48	217/293/303	87	305	6	13	29%	9%	68	-0.5	199/283/333	134	317	13	21	38%	10%	72	-0.2	205/283/356	150	291	16	27	33%	9%	75	+0.0
✕Cole Roederer 2022 · A	22	41→31	40→45	50	44	197/272/291	94	298	8	13	34%	8%	56	-1.3	201/266/318	117	303	13	11	35%	7%	61	-1.0	180/254/293	113	270	13	11	36%	8%	49	-1.0
✕Francisco Santana 2010 · A	22	43	42→50	57→55	43	212/261/324	112	266	9	13	24%	6%	59	-1.1	198/235/292	94	282	7	8	31%	4%	39	-2.5	164/182/259	96	230	6	6	32%	2%	4	-1.5
✕Eddinson Paulino 2023 · A	21	42→39	47→45	55→50	44	211/280/363	152	291	13	14	31%	8%	78	+0.2	197/255/323	126	277	13	15	32%	6%	58	-1.2	180/237/301	121	250	13	15	33%	6%	41	-1.5
✕Chris Pieters 2017 · A	22	48	39→45	54→55	49	226/307/315	88	296	6	17	24%	8%	77	+0.1	207/263/300	93	289	6	12	28%	6%	54	-1.4	195/251/293	97	271	6	13	28%	6%	45	-0.8
●Roger Bernadina 2006 · A	22	40→50	44→45	54→60	50	202/283/312	110	254	12	20	25%	9%	67	-0.5	235/295/331	96	314	8	26	26%	7%	76	+0.0	261/318/388	127	324	12	31	22%	7%	96	+1.3
✕Anthony Seigler 2021 · A	22	42→39	37→50	49→55	47	199/276/274	74	283	5	6	29%	9%	53	-1.5	192/289/301	109	273	9	9	30%	12%	67	-0.5	226/317/363	137	277	12	28	21%	11%	91	+0.6