Cameron Nelson

OF Fresno Grizzlies

Age 23 L/L 5'11" / 185 lbs A HR +30%H +12% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#2394ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	22	A+/ACOL	411	.258/.404/.402	8	23	75	—	.203/.315/.309
2027PROJMLE	23	MLBCOL	521	.200/.304/.308	9	12	77	-0.1
2028PROJ30% MLB	24	MLBCOL	109	.216/.316/.345	2	3	80	-0.1
2029PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBCOL	179	.218/.318/.352	4	4	82	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+

Speed58

Whiff%57

wOBA48

wRC+43

K%42

ISO40

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsRiver Town (age 24) · Brian O'Grady (age 24) · Clark Elliott (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 210 proj PA

wRC+†77

AVG/OBP/SLG.198 / .301 / .305

PA210

HR3

SB5

K%28

BB%12

ISO108

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 43

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT30

scouting grade only

POWER43

scouting grade only

EYE71

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.8M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	22	A+	Spokane Indians	—	43	39	11	2	0	1	3	11	1	2	0	282	349	410	759	128	370	26	7	342	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A	Fresno Grizzlies	—	368	287	73	11	5	7	70	94	6	21	6	254	410	401	811	146	351	26	19	368	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	22	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	—	43	40	10	2	0	1	2	15	1	2	0	250	302	375	677	125	333	35	5	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	368	309	61	9	4	5	48	128	6	21	6	197	317	301	618	104	303	35	13	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	411	349	70	10	4	6	50	143	7	23	6	201	313	304	617	103	317	35	12	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	411	326	84	13	5	8	73	105	7	23	6	258	404	402	806	144	353	26	18	365	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	411	351	70	10	4	6	50	143	7	23	6	199	313	302	615	103	306	35	12	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	411	351	70	10	4	6	50	143	7	23	6	199	313	302	615	103	306	35	12	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	COL	0%	521	449	90	16	3	9	61	147	6	12	3	200	304	308	611	108	273	28	12	282	77	-14	+1	+0	-3	+11	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	COL	30%	363	314	65	12	2	7	42	101	4	9	2	204	306	318	624	114	275	28	12	286	80	-9	+1	+0	-2	+8	-0.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	COL	44%	406	352	72	13	2	8	46	112	5	10	2	207	307	324	632	117	276	28	11	289	82	-9	+1	+0	-2	+9	-0.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	COL	51%	431	374	79	14	3	9	49	117	5	10	3	209	308	328	636	120	276	27	11	291	83	-9	+1	+0	-3	+9	-0.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	COL	52%	441	384	81	15	3	9	49	120	5	10	3	209	308	330	637	120	277	27	11	291	83	-9	+1	+0	-3	+10	-0.1
2032	28	MLB MLE	COL	53%	441	384	80	15	2	9	49	120	5	10	3	209	306	329	635	120	276	27	11	290	82	-9	+1	-1	-3	+10	-0.2
2033	29	MLB MLE	COL	53%	435	379	78	14	2	8	48	119	5	9	3	207	303	322	626	116	275	27	11	286	80	-10	+1	-1	-3	+9	-0.4
2028	24	MLB CTX	COL	30%	109	94	21	4	1	2	13	30	1	3	1	216	316	345	661	129	289	28	12	301	80	-3	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	COL	44%	179	155	34	6	2	4	20	49	2	4	1	218	318	352	669	133	290	27	11	304	82	-4	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	COL	51%	219	189	42	7	2	5	25	60	3	5	1	220	318	356	674	136	291	27	11	305	83	-4	+1	+0	-1	+5	-0.0
2031	27	MLB CTX	COL	52%	231	200	44	8	2	5	26	63	3	5	1	221	318	357	675	136	291	27	11	306	83	-5	+1	+0	-1	+5	-0.0
2032	28	MLB CTX	COL	53%	235	204	45	8	2	5	26	64	3	5	1	221	316	356	673	135	291	27	11	304	82	-5	+1	-0	-1	+5	-0.1
2033	29	MLB CTX	COL	53%	229	200	44	8	2	5	25	63	2	5	1	218	313	349	662	131	289	28	11	300	80	-5	+1	-1	-1	+5	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1202	1042	230	41	11	26	135	329	14	27	6	221	318	356	674	135	294	27	11	304	81	-26	+3	-1	-7	+26	-0.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	563	124	22	6	14	73	178	8	15	3	220	318	355	674	135	294	27	11	304	81	-14	+2	-1	-4	+14	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	3138	2717	561	100	19	59	357	891	39	86	23	206	307	322	630	116	282	28	11	287	81	-60	+6	-2	-16	+59	-1.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	563	116	21	4	12	74	185	8	18	5	206	307	321	628	115	282	28	11	287	81	-14	+1	-1	-4	+14	-0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AFresno Grizzlies · 368 PAwOBA .361 → .280 (−81)K% 25.5% → 34.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.54%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	34.74%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	19.02%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	—	13.12%
HBP% /PA	1.63%	—	×0.780	—	—	1.27%
Singles /BIP	25.91%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.963	—	22.94%
Doubles /BIP	5.70%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.963	—	4.55%
Triples /BIP	2.59%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.963	—	2.27%
Home runs /BIP	3.63%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	—	2.90%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.

Result: wOBA .361 → .280; ISO .146 → .116; BABIP .351 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Spokane Indians · 43 PAwOBA .333 → .263 (−70)K% 25.6% → 34.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.58%	÷1.000	×1.350	—	—	34.53%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.98%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×1.012	5.01%
HBP% /PA	2.33%	—	×0.810	—	×1.012	1.91%
Singles /BIP	28.57%	÷1.000	×0.910	—	×1.012	26.31%
Doubles /BIP	7.14%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×1.012	6.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.820	—	×1.012	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.57%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×1.012	3.00%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .333 → .263; ISO .128 → .097; BABIP .370 → .333. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Sam Fuld'07-'15 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,535 PA	2.3	1,535	12	67	230*	314*	336*	-10	+29	3.7	4.0
/162	664	5	29	-4.3	+12.7	1.6	pk7: 4
#3Ricky Ledee'98-'07 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,307 PA	3.5	2,307	63	29	233*	311*	398*	-19	-6	2.4	3.1
/162	664	18	8	-5.5	-1.8	0.7	pk7: 4
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#5James Mouton'94-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,795 PA	2.7	1,795	18	109	235*	314*	329*	-11	-0	0.7	1.0
/162	664	7	40	-4.2	-0.1	0.3	pk7: 1
#6Jimmy Stewart'63-'73 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,602 PA	2.4	1,602	8	38	235*	309*	329*	-1	+2	-0.2	0.5
/162	664	3	16	-0.4	+0.7	-0.1	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	2.1	1,412	27	32	208	304	325	-8	+0	0.2	0.2
/162	664	13	15	-4.0	+0.0	0.1	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Cameron Nelson (OGILVIE)	23	25→30	38→43	55→60	71	198/301/305	107	273	3	5	28%	12%	77	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕River Town 2023 · A	24	40→38	44→40	55→50	47	201/283/322	121	254	11	15	25%	8%	74	-0.6	215/303/306	91	265	8	14	20%	9%	77	-0.3	215/311/283	68	261	5	15	18%	9%	73	-0.3
✕Brian O'Grady 2016 · A	24	39→38	43→60	54→50	47	194/271/309	115	261	10	14	28%	9%	65	-1.2	193/272/317	124	269	12	13	31%	9%	68	-1.0	212/274/402	190	276	23	15	31%	7%	87	+0.3
✕Clark Elliott 2024 · A	23	42→40	36→45	51→50	49	196/281/257	61	262	4	12	25%	9%	57	-1.8	207/307/309	102	286	9	13	28%	10%	80	-0.2	198/314/306	108	278	10	16	29%	12%	80	-0.1
✕Nolan Fontana 2014 · A	23	45	40	52→50	60	209/326/308	98	294	7	14	28%	14%	86	+0.3	210/308/299	89	309	4	9	29%	12%	77	-0.3	186/292/310	124	256	11	12	29%	12%	73	-0.3
✕Kameron Misner 2021 · A	23	46→43	39→50	54→55	47	218/294/306	88	309	7	13	29%	9%	73	-0.6	202/287/334	132	324	13	21	38%	10%	77	-0.3	193/290/335	142	306	15	26	38%	11%	76	-0.4
✕Chris Meyers 2022 · A	23	40→46	41→50	51→40	45	197/266/297	101	258	8	11	26%	7%	61	-1.5	222/279/357	135	292	15	6	28%	6%	79	-0.2	226/286/369	143	292	17	3	28%	6%	81	-0.0
✕Hayden Cantrelle 2022 · AA	23	34	41→40	54→60	55	164/295/261	97	258	8	24	35%	14%	66	-1.1	191/307/295	104	295	8	20	33%	12%	77	-0.3	192/310/298	105	297	8	21	33%	12%	77	-0.2
✕Jacob Wetzel 2023 · A	23	39→34	43→45	50	47	194/280/301	107	268	12	10	30%	9%	68	-1.0	192/268/302	110	281	9	13	32%	9%	63	-1.4	180/256/297	117	269	7	16	33%	9%	55	-1.0
✕Anthony Seigler 2023 · A	24	39→40	42→45	46→55	54	193/293/304	111	262	9	11	28%	12%	73	-0.6	198/296/310	112	251	10	20	23%	12%	75	-0.5	221/312/347	126	270	10	25	21%	11%	87	+0.2
✕Gabriel Rincones Jr. 2024 · A	23	41→42	47→50	54→55	42	207/279/346	139	294	14	18	33%	8%	77	-0.3	212/287/351	139	290	15	20	30%	8%	81	-0.1	206/286/345	139	274	16	20	29%	8%	77	-0.2
✕Loidel Chapelli 2024 · A	22	39→36	43→45	56→55	46	196/271/312	116	271	10	18	30%	8%	65	-1.2	196/259/284	88	300	7	17	34%	7%	54	-2.0	176/233/238	63	279	4	20	36%	6%	31	-2.0
✕Trey Sweeney 2023 · AA	23	38→45	48→50	57→55	45	200/273/344	144	263	16	19	30%	8%	74	-0.5	218/289/354	136	286	15	17	28%	8%	82	+0.0	219/291/353	133	286	15	17	27%	8%	81	-0.1
✕Ramiro Rodriguez 2021 · AA	23	43	41→40	51→50	49	207/290/305	98	284	8	18	28%	10%	72	-0.7	201/264/300	99	312	9	11	36%	7%	60	-1.6	148/212/219	71	239	8	8	39%	6%	19	-1.1
✕Chris Pieters 2018 · A	23	45	40→45	51→55	44	213/278/313	100	287	7	13	27%	7%	68	-1.0	208/259/299	91	298	6	11	30%	6%	57	-1.8	170/204/219	49	257	0	15	32%	4%	17	-0.8
✕Alex Iadisernia 2024 · A	23	38→37	46→50	52→55	43	196/263/328	132	261	14	16	30%	7%	67	-1.1	197/263/295	98	277	8	16	30%	7%	59	-1.7	178/248/250	72	257	3	19	30%	7%	42	-2.0
✕Darrien Miller 2024 · A	23	39→42	44→45	48→45	47	194/289/310	116	258	12	6	28%	9%	74	-0.6	192/313/294	102	262	8	5	27%	11%	80	-0.2	179/320/285	107	245	9	4	27%	12%	79	-0.1
✕Gavin Cross 2024 · A	23	37→40	47→50	55	42	190/264/327	138	277	14	18	35%	8%	68	-1.0	203/255/336	133	283	15	23	32%	6%	65	-1.2	200/247/333	133	277	16	26	33%	5%	59	-1.3
✕Caleb Roberts 2023 · AA	23	43→46	42→50	50	44	203/288/312	110	308	9	12	34%	9%	73	-0.6	210/288/341	131	299	12	11	31%	9%	79	-0.2	201/279/334	133	279	12	10	30%	8%	72	-0.5
✕Imanol Vargas 2021 · A	23	42→43	44→50	46→45	47	204/287/322	118	294	12	8	32%	10%	74	-0.5	206/286/361	155	328	19	4	39%	10%	83	+0.1	198/285/355	157	311	19	2	39%	10%	79	-0.2
✕Sherman Johnson 2013 · A	23	45→49	39→45	52→50	53	213/301/306	94	282	6	9	25%	11%	76	-0.4	219/297/329	110	279	8	12	23%	9%	79	-0.2	210/291/324	114	260	9	14	22%	10%	73	-0.6

Cameron Nelson

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps