Cameron Nelson — OGILVIE

Cameron NelsonOF Fresno Grizzlies

Age 22 L/L 5'11" / 185 lbs A HR +30%H +12% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION411 act + 10 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†84

AVG/OBP/SLG.111 / .200 / .111

PA10

HR0

K%30

BB%10

BABIP307

ISO117

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 31 / POW 44

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT31

scouting grade only

POWER44

scouting grade only

EYE73

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2035	Arb-2	$0.7M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$1M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
YTD	22	A MLE	COL	—	411	347	70	10	4	7	52	141	7	23	6	202	318	314	632	112	313	34	13	280	75	-12	+2	+0	-2	+9	-0.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A RAW	COL	—	368	287	73	11	5	7	70	94	6	21	6	254	410	401	811	146	351	26	19	368	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	22	A+ RAW	COL	—	43	39	11	2	0	1	3	11	1	2	0	282	349	410	759	128	370	26	7	342	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	22	A MLE	COL	0%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	111	200	111	311		290	30	10	293	84	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
TOT	22	A MLE	COL	—	421	356	71	10	4	7	53	144	7	23	6	199	315	309	624	110	309	34	13	280	76	-12	+2	+0	-3	+9	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	COL	34%	454	390	82	14	3	9	55	134	6	12	3	210	317	331	648	121	289	30	12	297	87	-7	+1	+0	-3	+10	0.1
2028	24	MLB MLE	COL	46%	490	422	90	15	3	11	59	141	6	12	3	213	318	341	660	128	290	29	12	301	90	-6	+1	+0	-3	+11	0.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	COL	52%	529	455	99	17	4	12	63	150	6	13	3	218	321	352	672	134	290	28	12	304	92	-5	+1	+0	-3	+11	0.4
2030	26	MLB MLE	COL	54%	571	492	107	18	4	13	67	161	7	14	4	217	320	350	669	132	290	28	12	305	92	-5	+1	+0	-3	+12	0.5
2031	27	MLB MLE	COL	54%	617	530	115	20	4	14	74	174	8	15	4	217	322	349	671	132	290	28	12	305	92	-6	+1	+0	-4	+13	0.6
2032	28	MLB MLE	COL	54%	626	538	116	20	4	14	75	178	8	15	4	216	320	346	666	130	289	28	12	304	92	-6	+1	-1	-4	+14	0.4
2033	29	MLB MLE	COL	53%	617	531	113	19	4	14	74	176	7	14	4	213	317	343	660	130	288	29	12	302	90	-7	+1	-1	-4	+13	0.2
2034	30	MLB MLE	COL	52%	607	522	111	19	4	13	73	175	7	14	4	213	317	339	656	126	287	29	12	299	88	-8	+1	-2	-4	+13	0.0
2035	31	MLB MLE	COL	52%	594	510	106	18	3	12	72	173	7	13	3	208	314	325	640	118	284	29	12	295	86	-10	+1	-3	-4	+13	-0.2
2027	23	MLB CTX	COL	34%	156	134	30	5	1	4	19	46	2	4	1	224	329	366	695	142	306	29	12	303	87	-2	+0	+0	-1	+3	0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	COL	46%	226	194	45	8	2	6	27	65	3	6	1	232	335	387	721	155	307	29	12	308	90	-3	+1	+0	-1	+5	0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	COL	52%	273	236	53	9	2	7	32	77	3	7	2	225	325	369	693	144	307	28	12	311	92	-3	+1	+0	-2	+6	0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	COL	54%	310	266	62	11	3	8	37	87	4	8	2	233	336	387	723	154	307	28	12	312	92	-3	+1	+0	-2	+7	0.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	COL	54%	335	288	67	12	3	9	40	95	4	8	2	233	334	389	723	156	307	28	12	312	92	-3	+1	+0	-2	+7	0.3
2032	28	MLB CTX	COL	54%	340	292	68	12	3	9	41	96	4	8	2	233	335	387	722	154	306	28	12	311	92	-3	+1	-0	-2	+7	0.2
2033	29	MLB CTX	COL	53%	328	281	64	11	3	8	40	94	4	8	2	228	332	374	706	146	305	29	12	308	90	-4	+1	-1	-2	+7	0.1
2034	30	MLB CTX	COL	52%	318	273	61	11	2	8	38	92	4	7	2	223	327	366	693	143	303	29	12	305	88	-4	+1	-1	-2	+7	0.0
2035	31	MLB CTX	COL	52%	309	265	58	10	2	7	37	90	4	7	2	219	324	351	674	132	301	29	12	301	86	-5	+1	-1	-2	+7	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2595	2229	508	89	21	66	311	742	32	63	16	228	331	376	706	148	308	29	12	308	90	-31	+6	-4	-16	+56	1.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	558	127	22	5	17	78	186	8	16	4	228	331	376	707	149	306	29	12	308	90	-8	+2	-1	-4	+14	0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	5115	4399	940	160	33	112	613	1465	62	122	32	214	318	341	660	128	291	29	12	301	90	-61	+12	-7	-31	+111	2.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	559	119	20	4	14	78	186	8	16	4	213	318	338	656	125	290	29	12	301	90	-8	+1	-1	-4	+14	0.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Willie Harrislast yr '11 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,743 PA	4.1	2,743	39	106	241	331	351	-11	-2	5.3	6.2
/162	664	9	26	-2.7	-0.5	1.3	pk7: 7
#2Jace Petersonlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,753 PA	4.1	2,753	42	77	228	318	337	+4	+5	5.3	6.0
/162	664	10	19	+1.0	+1.3	1.3	pk7: 7
#3Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#4Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#5Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	3.3	2,198	35	52	238	326	354	-4	-3	4.3	4.3
/162	664	11	16	-1.3	-0.8	1.3	pk7: 4
#6Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	4.4	2,914	63	70	214	316	342	-17	+0	3.3	3.1
/162	664	14	16	-4.0	+0.0	0.7	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Cameron Nelson (OGILVIE)	22	26→31	39→44	55→60	73	202/314/316	114	290	6	13	30%	13%	84	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Nolan Fontana 2013 · A	22	47→43	40	53→50	63	214/343/314	99	296	6	15	26%	16%	95	+0.9	213/321/311	98	309	6	11	29%	13%	84	+0.2	207/315/300	93	301	5	9	29%	13%	78	-0.2
✕Jakob Marsee 2023 · A	22	44→48	43→45	58→60	54	211/315/327	116	289	9	21	28%	12%	86	+0.3	215/313/338	123	273	13	33	24%	11%	88	+0.5	211/310/338	127	264	13	40	24%	11%	84	+0.2
✕Jace Jung 2023 · A	22	44→42	39→50	50→40	50	208/292/300	92	296	6	7	29%	10%	71	-0.8	215/300/370	155	288	18	4	30%	10%	90	+0.6	208/298/364	156	272	18	3	29%	11%	86	+0.3
✕Roger Bernadina 2006 · A	22	40→50	44→45	54→60	50	202/283/312	110	254	12	20	25%	9%	71	-0.8	236/296/330	94	314	8	26	25%	7%	78	-0.3	261/318/385	124	324	11	31	22%	7%	95	+0.9
✕Darrien Miller 2023 · A	22	38→41	47→45	50→45	48	196/307/325	129	265	16	7	30%	10%	84	+0.2	187/296/284	97	258	8	5	29%	10%	71	-0.8	175/316/278	103	239	9	4	27%	12%	76	-0.2
✕Brian O'Grady 2016 · A	24	39→38	43→55	54→50	48	196/273/312	116	263	10	14	28%	9%	67	-1.1	193/273/316	123	270	11	13	31%	9%	68	-1.0	208/271/384	177	275	20	15	31%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Anthony Seigler 2023 · A	24	41→39	42→45	46→55	56	196/304/308	112	272	9	11	28%	13%	78	-0.3	197/295/308	111	251	10	20	24%	12%	75	-0.5	219/309/345	126	268	10	25	21%	11%	85	+0.2
✕Logan Vick 2014 · A	23	48	41→45	51→50	54	226/318/331	106	305	7	15	26%	12%	88	+0.4	195/285/290	95	293	7	13	32%	11%	66	-1.1	147/250/227	80	231	5	13	35%	11%	38	-2.1
✕Wuilfredo Antunez 2023 · A	21	46→39	47→55	52→50	50	227/309/366	139	292	14	16	26%	10%	92	+0.7	215/268/349	134	288	12	13	28%	6%	72	-0.7	209/258/360	151	275	14	14	29%	5%	69	-0.6
✕Joe Winker 2012 · A	22	49→33	44→55	55→45	42	234/289/365	131	323	9	6	29%	6%	84	+0.1	198/247/314	116	278	10	6	31%	5%	57	-1.8	172/217/282	111	237	10	6	32%	5%	38	-2.5
✕Eddinson Paulino 2023 · A	21	43→40	46→45	56→50	44	213/280/360	147	287	12	14	29%	8%	80	-0.2	202/260/324	122	280	11	15	30%	6%	64	-1.3	187/244/301	115	257	12	15	31%	6%	50	-1.5
✕Drew Robinson 2014 · A	22	43→42	43→55	49→50	46	207/288/323	116	304	10	8	33%	9%	75	-0.5	192/266/331	139	282	14	11	35%	9%	69	-0.9	208/288/362	155	321	16	12	38%	10%	81	-0.0
✕Jason Taylor 2009 · A	21	42→39	46→45	53→55	51	210/295/335	126	263	13	20	25%	10%	80	-0.1	211/270/323	112	266	10	17	24%	7%	68	-1.0	202/249/302	100	249	8	18	21%	5%	53	-0.7
✕Austin Wells 2022 · A	23	43	48→55	56→50	47	211/301/358	147	306	15	12	34%	10%	88	+0.4	216/294/377	161	276	19	10	28%	9%	90	+0.6	211/292/376	165	256	20	8	25%	9%	87	+0.3
✕Chris Pieters 2017 · A	22	48	39→45	54→55	49	226/307/315	88	296	6	17	24%	8%	80	-0.2	207/265/296	89	292	5	12	29%	6%	59	-1.7	197/253/289	92	277	5	13	29%	6%	51	-0.8
✕River Town 2023 · A	24	40→38	45→40	55→50	46	202/283/328	125	257	12	15	26%	8%	75	-0.5	216/303/308	92	269	8	14	21%	9%	78	-0.3	215/312/285	70	264	6	15	19%	9%	74	-0.3
✕Carlos Jimenez 2023 · A	20	38→41	47→50	53→55	46	189/281/323	135	287	14	16	37%	10%	73	-0.6	211/290/332	121	325	11	16	35%	9%	78	-0.3	220/298/374	155	300	18	18	31%	9%	87	+0.3
✕Dillon Paulson 2019 · A	22	41→36	47→50	50→30	48	207/281/353	146	266	14	4	27%	9%	79	-0.2	206/284/335	129	302	13	4	33%	10%	76	-0.4	192/276/319	127	274	13	2	32%	10%	68	-0.6
✕Loidel Chapelli 2023 · A	21	47→38	47→45	55	50	235/301/382	148	274	14	11	20%	8%	93	+0.8	199/271/299	100	302	8	17	34%	8%	63	-1.4	183/258/273	90	287	7	21	36%	8%	50	-1.5
✕Sam Hilliard 2016 · A	22	46→47	44→55	54→55	45	221/283/350	129	308	10	11	30%	8%	78	-0.3	210/262/317	107	334	10	18	38%	6%	63	-1.4	203/279/378	175	281	20	18	34%	9%	82	+0.0

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps