Connor Foley

P Visalia Rawhide

Age 24 RHP 6'5" / 235 lbs A peak 0.1 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	AARI	5	5	14	7.07	3.46	29.0%	21.7%	—	K 21.4% · BB 25.7% · FIP 4.54
2026	23	MIX2 levels	11	11	26	6.92	3.37	40.0%	17.4%	—	K 29.1% · BB 20.1% · FIP 3.94
2027PROJ	24	MLBARI	2	2	11	5.23	5.23	25.3%	18.2%	-0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBARI	2	2	10	4.98	4.88	25.4%	15.6%	0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 5, comp-based) · star 4% · didn't stick 83%

CompsJackson Fristoe (age 23) · Ryan Harvey (age 23) · Shawn Hill (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133124vR 116

ERA5.23

FIP5.23

K%25.3%

BB%18.2%

K-BB%7.0%

Proj IP11

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 11 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	5	5	14	69	20	15	0	100%	2.8	21.4%	25.7%	-4.2%	0.0%	7.07	4.54	—
2025	22	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	5	5	14	69	20	15	0	100%	2.8	21.4%	25.7%	-4.2%	0.0%	7.07	4.54	—
2025	22	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	5	5	14	69	20	15	0	100%	2.8	29.0%	21.7%	7.2%	0.0%	7.07	3.46	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	11	26	115	46	20	3	100%	2.4	29.1%	20.1%	9.0%	1.4%	6.92	3.94	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	11	26	115	46	20	3	100%	2.4	29.1%	20.1%	9.0%	1.4%	6.92	3.94	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	11	26	115	46	20	3	100%	2.4	40.0%	17.4%	22.6%	2.6%	6.92	3.37	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	ARI	2	2	11	46	12	8	1	100%	5.5	25.3%	18.2%	7.0%	2.9%	5.23	5.23	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	ARI	4	4	24	100	25	16	3	100%	5.9	25.4%	15.6%	9.8%	2.9%	4.98	4.88	+0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	ARI	2	2	10	42	11	7	1	100%	5.0	25.4%	15.6%	9.8%	2.9%	4.98	4.88	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		2	2	10	43	11	7	1	100%	5.1	25.4%	15.6%	9.8%	2.9%	4.98	4.50	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	217	138	20	100%	5.9	25.4%	15.6%	9.8%	2.9%	4.98	4.50	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		16	16	40	184	48	41	2	100%	2.5	26.2%	22.2%	4.1%	0.9%	6.97	4.17	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		80	80	200	920	241	204	8	100%	2.5	26.2%	22.2%	4.1%	0.9%	6.97	4.17	+0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Connor Foley (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.23	25.3%	18.2%	2.9%	—	4.88	25.4%	9.8%	24	-0.35	—	—	—
Jackson Fristoe R 2024 · 4.81 FIP	23	SP	4.81	18.8%	19.6%	1.5%	.266	6.79	13.5%	-4.0%	74	+1.98	4.81	139	71
Ryan Harvey R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	18.4%	15.9%	0.9%	.291	4.74	16.2%	7.8%	56	+0.66	4.08	133	70
Shawn Hill R 2004 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP	4.26	19.6%	13.7%	2.0%	.450	3.70	14.5%	8.6%	134	-0.56	2.96	239	70
Eriq Swan R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	22	SP-	4.85	19.7%	17.3%	2.2%	.371	5.28	19.7%	0.9%	109	+0.43	4.85	132	70
Levi Wells R 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	20.0%	12.1%	2.6%	.360	3.82	19.0%	10.2%	132	-0.53	3.70	192	68
Alex McFarlane R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP	4.91	21.9%	19.2%	2.2%	.344	3.91	21.3%	8.0%	128	-1.00	3.47	179	68
Alonzo Tredwell R 2024 · 4.43 FIP	22	SP-	4.43	19.3%	17.4%	1.4%	.336	4.19	22.0%	9.9%	100	-0.24	4.19	166	67
Braden Nett R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	22	SP	4.15	20.3%	15.2%	1.5%	.287	4.60	19.8%	5.7%	142	+0.45	3.91	243	67
Ryan Jensen R 2022 · 4.87 FIP	24	SP	4.87	18.8%	16.6%	2.3%	.252	4.34	23.7%	6.6%	150	-0.53	3.92	311	67
Aaron Hernandez R 2021 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP	4.65	20.9%	16.4%	2.2%	.329	5.36	18.8%	5.8%	59	+0.71	4.65	194	65
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	64
Logan Boyer R 2021 · 5.60 FIP	23	SP	5.60	17.0%	12.7%	4.2%	.306	3.71	25.0%	12.7%	27	-1.89	3.71	121	64
Noah Hall R 2024 · 5.65 FIP	23	SP	5.65	15.1%	17.0%	3.1%	.450	4.88	18.6%	3.6%	236	-0.77	4.27	248	64
Leonardo Pestana R 2023 · 5.67 FIP	25	SP	5.67	21.5%	13.1%	5.0%	.324	5.30	22.3%	8.6%	66	-0.37	3.61	155	64
Griff McGarry R 2023 · 4.17 FIP	24	SP	4.17	25.9%	17.1%	2.0%	.231	4.33	25.6%	5.9%	134	+0.16	2.46	282	63
Denny Brady R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP	4.08	24.8%	13.2%	2.6%	.450	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	160	63
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	62
Conor Grammes R 2021 · 5.74 FIP	24	SP	5.74	20.4%	11.4%	5.3%	.417	4.35	22.9%	4.9%	124	-1.39	4.11	171	62
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	62
Dane Acker R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.3%	14.1%	2.7%	.229	4.39	19.5%	8.5%	164	-0.16	4.29	257	61