Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips:
RAW = as recorded ·
CTX = with park/league context ·
A+C = actual + context combined ·
MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park. Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors. WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024
19
AMLE
Dunedin Blue Jays
3
2
11
38
12
4
0
67%
3.6
31.6%
10.5%
21.1%
0.0%
0.84
1.77
—
2024
19
AMLE
Dunedin Blue Jays
3
2
11
38
12
4
0
67%
3.6
31.6%
10.5%
21.1%
0.0%
0.84
1.77
—
2024
19
ARAW
Dunedin Blue Jays
3
2
11
38
12
4
0
67%
3.6
31.6%
10.5%
21.1%
0.0%
0.84
1.98
—
2025
20
MIXMLE
2 levels
18
17
45
216
34
45
1
94%
2.5
11.3%
24.9%
-13.6%
0.5%
6.55
5.56
—
2025
20
MIXMLE
2 levels
18
17
45
216
34
45
1
94%
2.5
11.3%
24.9%
-13.6%
0.5%
6.55
5.56
—
2025
20
MIXRAW
2 levels
18
17
45
216
34
45
1
94%
2.5
15.7%
20.8%
-5.1%
0.5%
6.55
4.86
—
2026
21
A+MLE
Vancouver Canadians
26
25
97
438
81
53
16
96%
3.7
14.2%
13.9%
0.3%
4.6%
6.14
6.17
—
2026
21
A+MLE
Vancouver Canadians
26
25
97
438
81
53
16
96%
3.7
14.2%
13.9%
0.3%
4.6%
6.14
6.17
—
2026
21
A+RAW
Vancouver Canadians
26
25
97
438
81
53
16
96%
3.7
18.5%
12.1%
6.4%
3.7%
6.14
5.22
—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027
22
MLB
TOR
12
12
68
287
43
45
10
100%
5.7
14.8%
15.6%
-0.8%
3.3%
6.03
6.03
-0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028
23
MLBMLE
TOR
16
16
90
381
66
51
12
100%
5.6
17.2%
13.4%
3.9%
3.2%
5.64
5.50
-0.6
2029
24
MLBMLE
TOR
17
17
93
391
73
47
12
100%
5.4
18.8%
11.9%
6.8%
3.2%
5.31
5.16
-0.3
2030
25
MLBMLE
TOR
16
16
94
396
78
44
13
100%
5.9
19.7%
11.0%
8.7%
3.2%
5.08
4.95
-0.1
2031
26
MLBMLE
TOR
16
16
94
396
80
43
13
100%
5.9
20.2%
10.9%
9.3%
3.2%
4.96
4.89
+0.0
2032
27
MLBMLE
TOR
15
15
92
390
79
43
13
100%
6.2
20.2%
10.9%
9.2%
3.2%
4.94
4.93
-0.0
2033
28
MLBMLE
TOR
15
15
90
378
76
42
13
100%
6.0
20.0%
11.1%
8.9%
3.3%
4.99
5.02
-0.1
2034
29
MLBMLE
TOR
14
14
86
361
72
41
13
100%
6.1
19.8%
11.3%
8.5%
3.5%
5.08
5.15
-0.2
2035
30
MLBMLE
TOR
13
13
80
340
66
40
12
100%
6.2
19.4%
11.6%
7.8%
3.7%
5.23
5.32
-0.4
2028
23
MLBCTX
TOR
8
8
45
190
33
25
6
100%
5.6
17.2%
13.4%
3.9%
3.2%
5.64
5.50
-0.3
2029
24
MLBCTX
TOR
12
12
65
274
51
33
9
100%
5.4
18.8%
11.9%
6.8%
3.2%
5.31
5.16
-0.2
2030
25
MLBCTX
TOR
13
13
76
321
63
35
10
100%
5.8
19.7%
11.0%
8.7%
3.2%
5.08
4.95
-0.0
2031
26
MLBCTX
TOR
14
14
82
346
70
38
11
100%
5.9
20.2%
10.9%
9.3%
3.2%
4.96
4.89
+0.0
2032
27
MLBCTX
TOR
14
14
83
350
71
38
11
100%
5.9
20.2%
10.9%
9.2%
3.2%
4.94
4.93
-0.0
2033
28
MLBCTX
TOR
14
14
83
350
70
39
12
100%
5.9
20.0%
11.1%
8.9%
3.3%
4.99
5.02
-0.1
2034
29
MLBCTX
TOR
13
13
80
338
67
38
12
100%
6.2
19.8%
11.3%
8.5%
3.5%
5.08
5.15
-0.2
2035
30
MLBCTX
TOR
12
12
75
317
62
37
12
100%
6.2
19.4%
11.6%
7.8%
3.7%
5.23
5.32
-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career
—
RAW
100
100
589
2485
486
283
82
100%
5.9
19.6%
11.4%
8.2%
3.3%
5.12
4.71
+1.3
/ 200 IP
—
RAW
34
34
200
844
165
96
28
100%
5.9
19.6%
11.4%
8.2%
3.3%
5.12
4.71
+0.4
Career
—
MLE
47
44
153
692
99
119
21
94%
3.2
14.3%
17.2%
-2.9%
3.0%
5.90
5.74
-1.7
/ 200 IP
—
MLE
62
58
200
907
129
156
28
94%
3.2
14.3%
17.2%
-2.9%
3.0%
5.90
5.74
-0.5
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.