Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 3 | 2 | 11 | 38 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 67% | 3.6 | 31.6% | 10.5% | 21.1% | 0.0% | 0.84 | 1.77 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 3 | 2 | 11 | 38 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 67% | 3.6 | 31.6% | 10.5% | 21.1% | 0.0% | 0.84 | 1.98 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 17 | 45 | 216 | 34 | 45 | 1 | 94% | 2.5 | 11.3% | 24.9% | -13.6% | 0.4% | 6.55 | 5.51 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 17 | 45 | 216 | 34 | 45 | 1 | 94% | 2.5 | 15.7% | 20.8% | -5.1% | 0.5% | 6.55 | 4.86 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 17 | 16 | 54 | 263 | 40 | 32 | 10 | 94% | 3.2 | 11.7% | 14.0% | -2.3% | 4.8% | 7.33 | 6.49 | -1.2 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | TOR | 6 | 6 | 36 | 151 | 21 | 28 | 4 | 100% | 6.0 | 14.1% | 18.6% | -4.4% | 2.8% | 6.15 | 6.15 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 14.1% | 18.6% | -4.4% | 2.8% | 6.15 | 6.15 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 21 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 90 | 414 | 61 | 60 | 14 | — | — | 14.8% | 14.5% | 0.3% | 3.4% | 6.86 | 6.36 | -1.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 21 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 14.1% | 18.6% | -4.4% | 2.8% | 6.15 | 5.77 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | TOR | 7 | 7 | 38 | 158 | 27 | 25 | 4 | 100% | 5.4 | 17.0% | 15.6% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 5.69 | 5.51 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | TOR | 7 | 7 | 39 | 164 | 31 | 22 | 4 | 100% | 5.6 | 18.9% | 13.6% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 5.30 | 5.09 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | TOR | 7 | 7 | 40 | 168 | 34 | 21 | 5 | 100% | 5.7 | 20.0% | 12.3% | 7.7% | 2.7% | 5.00 | 4.82 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | TOR | 7 | 7 | 40 | 171 | 35 | 19 | 5 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.6% | 11.4% | 9.2% | 2.7% | 4.79 | 4.65 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 7 | 7 | 40 | 171 | 36 | 19 | 5 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 9.5% | 2.7% | 4.69 | 4.63 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 7 | 7 | 40 | 168 | 35 | 19 | 5 | 100% | 5.7 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 9.4% | 2.7% | 4.67 | 4.66 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 6 | 6 | 39 | 163 | 34 | 19 | 5 | 100% | 6.4 | 20.7% | 11.6% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 4.72 | 4.75 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | TOR | 3 | 3 | 19 | 80 | 14 | 13 | 2 | 100% | 6.3 | 17.0% | 15.6% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 5.69 | 5.51 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | TOR | 5 | 5 | 28 | 118 | 22 | 16 | 3 | 100% | 5.6 | 18.9% | 13.6% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 5.30 | 5.09 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | TOR | 6 | 6 | 33 | 139 | 28 | 17 | 4 | 100% | 5.5 | 20.0% | 12.3% | 7.7% | 2.7% | 5.00 | 4.82 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | TOR | 6 | 6 | 36 | 152 | 31 | 17 | 4 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.6% | 11.4% | 9.2% | 2.7% | 4.79 | 4.65 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 6 | 6 | 37 | 156 | 33 | 18 | 4 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 9.5% | 2.7% | 4.69 | 4.63 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 6 | 6 | 37 | 156 | 33 | 18 | 4 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 9.4% | 2.7% | 4.67 | 4.66 | -0.0 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 6 | 6 | 36 | 152 | 32 | 18 | 4 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.7% | 11.6% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 4.72 | 4.75 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 39 | 39 | 226 | 953 | 192 | 116 | 26 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.1% | 12.2% | 7.9% | 2.7% | 4.91 | 4.44 | +2.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 844 | 170 | 103 | 23 | 100% | 5.7 | 20.1% | 12.2% | 7.9% | 2.7% | 4.91 | 4.44 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 38 | 35 | 110 | 517 | 67 | 95 | 13 | 92% | 2.9 | 13.0% | 18.3% | -5.3% | 2.6% | 6.38 | 5.74 | -0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 69 | 64 | 200 | 940 | 122 | 172 | 24 | 92% | 2.9 | 13.0% | 18.3% | -5.3% | 2.6% | 6.38 | 5.74 | -0.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Landen Maroudis (OGILVIE) | — | — | 6.15 | 14.1% | 18.6% | 2.8% | — | 5.13 | 18.7% | 4.9% | 116 | -1.02 | — | — | — |
| Jackson Fristoe R 2027 · 5.78 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.78 | 17.0% | 24.2% | 1.9% | .258 | 6.42 | 15.6% | -2.0% | 110 | +0.64 | 4.79 | 138 | 85 |
| Andrew Landry R 2027 · 5.72 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.72 | 9.8% | 20.7% | 1.5% | .290 | 4.36 | 16.7% | 4.1% | 141 | -1.36 | 3.25 | 160 | 84 |
| Esteban Mejia R 2024 · 6.99 FIP | 19 | SP | 6.99 | 16.0% | 31.0% | 2.4% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.97 | 122 | 84 |
| Zander Mueth R 2026 · 6.97 FIP | 21 | SP | 6.97 | 11.9% | 20.3% | 4.2% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.57 | 114 | 82 |
| Jose Diaz R 2026 · 5.40 FIP | 21 | SP | 5.40 | 16.5% | 17.5% | 2.7% | .357 | 4.96 | 17.6% | 0.9% | 89 | -0.44 | 3.95 | 189 | 82 |
| Jordany Chirinos R 2024 · 5.19 FIP | 19 | SP | 5.19 | 12.2% | 17.6% | 1.6% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 126 | 82 |
| Kyle Larsen R 2026 · 5.50 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.50 | 15.8% | 17.9% | 2.7% | .274 | 5.00 | 20.2% | 6.7% | 77 | -0.50 | 4.71 | 137 | 81 |
| Victor Mederos R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 21 | SP | 5.03 | 15.6% | 14.0% | 2.7% | .286 | 5.29 | 16.5% | 5.4% | 301 | +0.26 | 4.19 | 360 | 81 |
| Steven Brooks R 2027 · 5.61 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.61 | 16.6% | 17.9% | 3.0% | .268 | 4.80 | 25.0% | 9.8% | 40 | -0.81 | 4.80 | 103 | 81 |
| Orlando Suarez R 2024 · 6.57 FIP | 19 | SP- | 6.57 | 15.5% | 23.2% | 3.4% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 113 | 81 |
| Ryan Degges R 2027 · 5.50 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.50 | 15.1% | 16.7% | 2.8% | .296 | 6.74 | 21.2% | 5.9% | 21 | +1.24 | 5.50 | 102 | 80 |
| Matt Ager R 2027 · 5.81 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.81 | 10.4% | 15.5% | 2.9% | .281 | 5.00 | 17.1% | 8.5% | 70 | -0.81 | 5.00 | 146 | 80 |
| Noah Hall R 2028 · 5.31 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.31 | 15.1% | 17.0% | 2.4% | .450 | 4.72 | 18.1% | 1.6% | 189 | -0.59 | 4.21 | 201 | 80 |
| Marwys Cabrera R 2025 · 5.42 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.42 | 13.5% | 18.4% | 2.1% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 131 | 79 |
| Osiris Ramirez R 2026 · 5.47 FIP | 21 | SP | 5.47 | 12.6% | 19.4% | 1.8% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.35 | 104 | 79 |
| Matt Hartman R 2027 · 7.13 FIP | 22 | SP | 7.13 | 8.2% | 18.9% | 4.2% | .217 | 3.99 | 12.1% | 0.4% | 89 | -3.14 | 3.99 | 105 | 79 |
| Felix Cepeda R 2026 · 6.04 FIP | 21 | SP | 6.04 | 17.0% | 21.6% | 3.0% | .276 | 4.84 | 17.6% | 0.9% | 144 | -1.20 | 3.61 | 204 | 79 |
| Chad Bryant R 2026 · 6.04 FIP | 21 | SP- | 6.04 | 14.8% | 20.7% | 2.9% | .337 | 5.67 | 16.0% | -3.4% | 81 | -0.37 | 3.93 | 136 | 79 |
| Donal Montas R 2026 · 5.96 FIP | 21 | SP | 5.96 | 8.4% | 13.3% | 3.4% | .268 | 4.86 | 10.3% | -3.6% | 71 | -1.10 | 4.10 | 149 | 79 |
| Irwin Ramirez R 2024 · 7.04 FIP | 19 | SP- | 7.04 | 12.8% | 22.6% | 3.9% | .228 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.88 | 106 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 39 | 19.2% | 13.1% | 1.05 | 5.11 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Buck Farmer ('24) | 10 | 50 | 21.6% | 10.5% | 1.23 | 4.59 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |