Jogly García
P
Lake County Captains
Age 22
RHP
6'1" / 202 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.4 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION55 act + 45 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 103
ERA4.50
FIP4.50
K%24.9%
BB%12.3%
K-BB%12.6%
ROS IP45
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 99 IP
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL CLE Red | 9 | 9 | 33 | 160 | 28 | 24 | 0 | 100% | 3.7 | 11.9% | 18.8% | -6.9% | 0.0% | 3.51 | 4.47 | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL CLE Red | 9 | 9 | 33 | 160 | 28 | 24 | 0 | 100% | 3.7 | 17.5% | 15.0% | 2.5% | 0.0% | 3.51 | 3.58 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | ACL Guardians | 11 | 9 | 33 | 157 | 36 | 30 | 1 | 82% | 3.0 | 15.6% | 23.9% | -8.3% | 0.5% | 5.45 | 5.10 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | ACL Guardians | 11 | 9 | 33 | 157 | 36 | 30 | 1 | 82% | 3.0 | 22.9% | 19.1% | 3.8% | 0.6% | 5.45 | 4.04 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 14 | 73 | 338 | 90 | 25 | 8 | 74% | 3.9 | 18.7% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 3.8% | 5.52 | 4.75 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 14 | 73 | 338 | 90 | 25 | 8 | 74% | 3.9 | 26.6% | 7.4% | 19.2% | 2.4% | 5.52 | 3.09 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 8 | 39 | 163 | 63 | 17 | 1 | 73% | 3.5 | 31.7% | 13.1% | 18.6% | 0.0% | 2.77 | 2.08 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 8 | 39 | 163 | 63 | 17 | 1 | 73% | 3.5 | 38.7% | 10.4% | 28.2% | 0.6% | 2.77 | 1.51 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 20 | 4 | 55 | 250 | 50 | 40 | 9 | 20% | 2.7 | 15.4% | 18.4% | -3.0% | 4.5% | 6.09 | 6.60 | -1.3 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | CLE | 42 | 0 | 45 | 188 | 47 | 23 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.9% | 12.3% | 12.6% | 2.9% | 4.50 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 24.9% | 12.3% | 12.6% | 2.8% | 4.50 | 4.50 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 99 | 438 | 97 | 63 | 14 | — | — | 22.1% | 14.4% | 7.7% | 3.3% | 5.38 | 5.66 | -0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 22 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 24.9% | 12.3% | 12.6% | 2.8% | 4.50 | 4.11 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | CLE | 8 | 8 | 46 | 195 | 50 | 22 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.5% | 11.3% | 14.2% | 2.8% | 4.38 | 4.31 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | CLE | 8 | 8 | 48 | 201 | 52 | 21 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.9% | 10.7% | 15.2% | 2.8% | 4.27 | 4.19 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | CLE | 8 | 8 | 48 | 203 | 53 | 21 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.1% | 10.4% | 15.7% | 2.8% | 4.19 | 4.13 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | CLE | 8 | 8 | 48 | 203 | 53 | 21 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.2% | 10.3% | 15.9% | 2.8% | 4.14 | 4.11 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 8 | 8 | 47 | 200 | 52 | 21 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.2% | 10.4% | 15.8% | 2.9% | 4.15 | 4.15 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | CLE | 4 | 4 | 23 | 97 | 25 | 11 | 3 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.5% | 11.3% | 14.2% | 2.8% | 4.38 | 4.31 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | CLE | 5 | 5 | 33 | 139 | 36 | 15 | 4 | 100% | 6.6 | 25.9% | 10.7% | 15.2% | 2.8% | 4.27 | 4.19 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | CLE | 6 | 6 | 39 | 165 | 43 | 17 | 5 | 100% | 6.5 | 26.1% | 10.4% | 15.7% | 2.8% | 4.19 | 4.13 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | CLE | 7 | 7 | 42 | 177 | 47 | 18 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.2% | 10.3% | 15.9% | 2.8% | 4.14 | 4.11 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 7 | 7 | 43 | 182 | 48 | 19 | 5 | 100% | 6.1 | 26.2% | 10.4% | 15.8% | 2.8% | 4.15 | 4.15 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 29 | 29 | 180 | 761 | 198 | 80 | 21 | 100% | 6.2 | 26.0% | 10.6% | 15.5% | 2.8% | 4.20 | 3.78 | +3.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 32 | 200 | 844 | 220 | 89 | 23 | 99% | 6.1 | 26.0% | 10.6% | 15.5% | 2.8% | 4.20 | 3.78 | +3.8 | ||
| Career | — | 70 | 44 | 233 | 1068 | 197 | 165 | 25 | 63% | 3.3 | 18.4% | 15.5% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 4.90 | 4.79 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 60 | 38 | 200 | 915 | 169 | 142 | 21 | 63% | 3.3 | 18.4% | 15.5% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 4.90 | 4.79 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jogly García (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.50 | 24.9% | 12.3% | 2.9% | — | 4.21 | 25.8% | 15.0% | 142 | -0.29 | — | — | — |
| Michael Knorr R 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .312 | 5.16 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +1.13 | 4.03 | 152 | 84 |
| Jake Lyons R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.41 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 2.5% | .325 | 4.72 | 19.4% | 9.2% | 105 | +0.31 | 4.31 | 174 | 84 |
| Ray Gaither R 2028 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.91 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .314 | 4.49 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.42 | 4.16 | 164 | 84 |
| Casey Legumina R 2028 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 83 |
| Connor Cooke R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .350 | 4.29 | 24.6% | 10.4% | 56 | +0.82 | 2.92 | 103 | 83 |
| Carson Rudd R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.43 | 25.4% | 10.6% | 2.1% | .351 | 5.24 | 21.6% | 5.6% | 193 | +1.81 | 3.43 | 242 | 82 |
| Mason McGwire R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.50 | 23.5% | 10.9% | 1.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 128 | 81 |
| Colin Fields R 2027 · 3.48 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.48 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 1.5% | .246 | 4.20 | 21.6% | 12.8% | 184 | +0.72 | 3.07 | 229 | 81 |
| Hunter Gregory R 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.98 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .374 | 4.64 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 188 | +0.66 | 3.18 | 234 | 80 |
| Noah Skirrow R 2027 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 2.4% | .306 | 4.68 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 316 | +0.34 | 3.90 | 371 | 79 |
| Chris Campos R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.86 | 21.0% | 11.8% | 3.7% | .364 | 4.57 | 18.7% | 11.7% | 237 | -0.29 | 4.43 | 306 | 79 |
| Zach Messinger R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.96 | 23.0% | 14.7% | 1.7% | .317 | 4.30 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 314 | +0.34 | 3.68 | 444 | 79 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2027 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.45 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .275 | 4.09 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.36 | 3.05 | 181 | 79 |
| Tanner Hall R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.56 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 3.0% | .295 | 5.39 | 10.1% | -4.6% | 72 | +0.83 | 4.56 | 137 | 78 |
| Grant Ford R 2027 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.34 | 20.1% | 13.2% | 4.1% | .300 | 4.57 | 19.0% | 4.5% | 112 | -0.77 | 3.96 | 188 | 78 |
| J.C. Flowers R 2027 · 3.39 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.39 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 4.95 | 16.5% | 1.9% | 184 | +1.56 | 3.39 | 281 | 77 |
| John Matthews R 2027 · 4.88 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.88 | 18.6% | 10.4% | 3.7% | .351 | 4.67 | 15.5% | 1.6% | 145 | -0.21 | 4.40 | 213 | 77 |
| Juan Mendez R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.47 | 20.5% | 14.2% | 2.4% | .271 | 5.06 | 21.9% | 6.1% | 128 | +0.59 | 3.55 | 156 | 77 |
| Nathanael Santiago R 2029 · 3.47 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.47 | 20.3% | 11.4% | 1.2% | .286 | 3.51 | 23.2% | 10.9% | 71 | +0.04 | 2.45 | 138 | 77 |
| Jack Ralston R 2027 · 3.50 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.50 | 28.0% | 14.9% | 1.6% | .270 | 4.25 | 24.7% | 7.3% | 124 | +0.75 | 3.50 | 299 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 47 | 25.8% | 10.9% | 1.09 | 4.27 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Hansel Robles ('22) | 7 | 59 | 25.3% | 10.1% | 1.16 | 3.86 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Wade Davis ('21) | 6 | 53 | 27.3% | 10.4% | 0.90 | 3.77 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Cam Bedrosian ('21) | 6 | 45 | 24.5% | 10.0% | 0.97 | 3.68 |