Jogly García — OGILVIE

Jogly García P Lake County Captains

Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 202 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.3 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 44 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 102

ERA4.50

FIP4.50

K%24.9%

BB%12.4%

K-BB%12.5%

ROS IP45

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4550

CMD3040

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$4M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$5M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$5M	+$0.4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Red	9	9	33	160	28	24	0	100%	3.7	11.9%	18.8%	-6.9%	0.0%	3.51	4.47	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL CLE Red	9	9	33	160	28	24	0	100%	3.7	17.5%	15.0%	2.5%	0.0%	3.51	3.58	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	11	9	33	157	36	30	1	82%	3.0	15.6%	23.9%	-8.3%	0.7%	5.45	5.17	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	11	9	33	157	36	30	1	82%	3.0	15.6%	23.9%	-8.3%	0.7%	5.45	5.17	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	ACL Guardians	11	9	33	157	36	30	1	82%	3.0	22.9%	19.1%	3.8%	0.6%	5.45	4.04	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	14	73	338	90	25	8	74%	3.9	18.7%	9.0%	9.7%	3.5%	5.52	4.56	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	14	73	338	90	25	8	74%	3.9	18.7%	9.0%	9.7%	3.5%	5.52	4.56	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	14	73	338	90	25	8	74%	3.9	26.6%	7.4%	19.2%	2.4%	5.52	3.09	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	8	39	163	63	17	1	73%	3.5	31.7%	13.1%	18.6%	0.0%	2.77	2.08	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	8	39	163	63	17	1	73%	3.5	31.7%	13.1%	18.6%	0.0%	2.77	2.08	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	8	39	163	63	17	1	73%	3.5	38.7%	10.4%	28.2%	0.6%	2.77	1.51	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	32	4	74	340	74	60	12	12%	2.3	16.8%	20.3%	-3.5%	4.4%	5.99	6.68	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	32	4	74	340	74	60	12	12%	2.3	16.8%	20.3%	-3.5%	4.4%	5.99	6.68	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A+ RAW	CLE	32	4	74	340	74	60	12	12%	2.3	21.8%	17.6%	4.1%	3.5%	5.99	5.43	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	CLE	71	0	75	316	80	36	9	0%	1.1	25.5%	11.4%	14.1%	2.8%	4.38	4.31	+0.2
2028	24	MLB MLE	CLE	73	0	77	324	84	35	9	0%	1.1	25.9%	10.8%	15.1%	2.8%	4.27	4.19	+0.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	CLE	74	0	78	328	86	34	9	0%	1.1	26.1%	10.4%	15.7%	2.8%	4.19	4.12	+0.4
2030	26	MLB MLE	CLE	74	0	78	328	86	34	9	0%	1.1	26.2%	10.4%	15.9%	2.8%	4.14	4.11	+0.4
2031	27	MLB MLE	CLE	73	0	76	323	85	34	9	0%	1.0	26.2%	10.5%	15.8%	2.8%	4.14	4.15	+0.4
2032	28	MLB MLE	CLE	71	0	74	313	82	33	9	0%	1.0	26.1%	10.6%	15.5%	2.9%	4.19	4.23	+0.3
2033	29	MLB MLE	CLE	68	0	71	299	77	32	9	0%	1.0	25.9%	10.8%	15.0%	3.1%	4.29	4.36	+0.2
2034	30	MLB MLE	CLE	63	0	67	281	72	31	9	0%	1.1	25.5%	11.1%	14.4%	3.3%	4.44	4.54	+0.0
2035	31	MLB MLE	CLE	59	0	62	262	66	30	9	0%	1.1	25.1%	11.5%	13.6%	3.5%	4.62	4.74	-0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	CLE	35	0	37	156	40	18	4	0%	1.1	25.5%	11.4%	14.1%	2.8%	4.38	4.31	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	CLE	51	0	54	228	59	25	6	0%	1.1	25.9%	10.8%	15.1%	2.8%	4.27	4.19	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	CLE	60	0	63	266	69	28	7	0%	1.1	26.1%	10.4%	15.7%	2.8%	4.19	4.12	+0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	CLE	65	0	68	287	75	30	8	0%	1.0	26.2%	10.4%	15.9%	2.8%	4.14	4.11	+0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	CLE	66	0	69	291	76	30	8	0%	1.0	26.2%	10.5%	15.8%	2.8%	4.14	4.15	+0.3
2032	28	MLB CTX	CLE	65	0	68	287	75	30	8	0%	1.0	26.1%	10.6%	15.5%	2.9%	4.19	4.23	+0.3
2033	29	MLB CTX	CLE	63	0	66	279	72	30	9	0%	1.0	25.9%	10.8%	15.0%	3.1%	4.29	4.36	+0.1
2034	30	MLB CTX	CLE	59	0	62	262	67	29	9	0%	1.1	25.5%	11.1%	14.4%	3.3%	4.44	4.54	+0.0
2035	31	MLB CTX	CLE	56	0	59	249	63	29	9	0%	1.1	25.1%	11.5%	13.6%	3.5%	4.62	4.74	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		520	0	546	2307	597	249	69	0%	1.1	25.9%	10.8%	15.1%	3.0%	4.28	3.92	+4.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	219	91	25	0%	1.1	25.9%	10.8%	15.1%	3.0%	4.28	3.92	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		82	44	252	1158	215	188	28	54%	3.1	18.6%	16.2%	2.3%	2.4%	4.96	4.90	+4.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		65	35	200	918	171	149	22	54%	3.1	18.6%	16.2%	2.3%	2.4%	4.96	4.90	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jogly García (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.50	24.9%	12.4%	2.8%	—	4.21	25.8%	14.9%	229	-0.29	—	—	—
Carson Rudd R 2021 · 3.39 FIP	22	SP-	3.39	25.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.351	5.24	21.6%	5.6%	193	+1.85	3.39	242	83
Jack Ralston R 2021 · 3.55 FIP	23	SW	3.55	28.0%	14.9%	1.7%	.270	4.43	24.7%	7.3%	124	+0.88	3.55	308	82
Brendan Collins R 2022 · 3.67 FIP	22	SW	3.67	21.8%	10.3%	2.0%	.294	3.86	20.2%	5.1%	54	+0.19	3.67	122	81
Austin Vernon R 2022 · 4.38 FIP	23	SW	4.38	26.6%	14.9%	3.0%	.234	4.62	22.7%	7.8%	182	+0.24	3.37	261	81
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	81
Kyle Zimmer R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	23	SW	3.74	21.8%	8.6%	2.5%	.293	4.55	20.4%	9.0%	33	+0.81	2.08	276	81
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	80
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	19.8%	10.9%	189	+0.28	3.06	349	80
Zach Messinger R 2022 · 3.99 FIP	22	SP-	3.99	23.0%	14.7%	1.8%	.317	4.30	18.5%	7.5%	314	+0.31	3.70	466	80
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	79
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	79
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	79
Luis Contreras R 2019 · 3.59 FIP	23	SW	3.59	26.4%	12.8%	2.0%	.302	3.13	26.8%	14.4%	42	-0.46	3.13	258	79
Austin Bergner R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	24	SW	4.99	24.0%	10.9%	4.6%	.277	4.88	21.5%	9.9%	274	-0.11	4.06	464	79
Connor Cooke R 2022 · 3.35 FIP	22	SP-	3.35	23.7%	8.4%	2.2%	.350	4.13	24.0%	11.4%	56	+0.78	2.93	103	78
John Matthews R 2021 · 4.87 FIP	23	SW	4.87	18.6%	10.4%	3.7%	.351	4.75	15.5%	1.6%	145	-0.12	4.51	213	77
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	77
Corey Black R 2015 · 4.19 FIP	23	SW	4.19	22.1%	13.9%	2.2%	.310	3.56	22.1%	6.0%	53	-0.63	3.56	139	77
Felix Arronde R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	20	SW	4.42	20.2%	12.1%	2.7%	.275	4.98	15.8%	5.8%	344	+0.56	4.16	442	76
Daniel Gonzalez R 2018 · 3.49 FIP	22	SW	3.49	21.3%	12.0%	1.2%	.239	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	163	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	70	25.8%	10.9%	1.14	4.30
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99