Jogly García P Lake County Captains
Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 202 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.4 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION55 act + 45 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 103
ERA4.50
FIP4.50
K%24.9%
BB%12.3%
K-BB%12.6%
ROS IP45
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 99 IP
K: -0.4 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)-0KBB: -7.1 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)-7BBCONTACT: -8.7 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)-9CONTACTSTAM: +13.2 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+13STAMTotal WAR: -0.33 (99 IP)-0.3WAR
0.10.12627
Grades · Contract
Scouting Grades
OFP40
STUF4550
CMD3040
K†6060
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2027
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2032
First FA Year   2033
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.1$0.4M+$0.0M (cut)
2028Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.4M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
202218ROKDSL CLE Red993316028240100%3.711.9%18.8%-6.9%0.0%3.514.47
202218ROKDSL CLE Red993316028240100%3.717.5%15.0%2.5%0.0%3.513.58
202319ROKACL Guardians119331573630182%3.015.6%23.9%-8.3%0.5%5.455.10
202319ROKACL Guardians119331573630182%3.022.9%19.1%3.8%0.6%5.454.04
202420MIX2 levels1914733389025874%3.918.7%9.0%9.7%3.8%5.524.75
202420MIX2 levels1914733389025874%3.926.6%7.4%19.2%2.4%5.523.09
202521MIX2 levels118391636317173%3.531.7%13.1%18.6%0.0%2.772.08
202521MIX2 levels118391636317173%3.538.7%10.4%28.2%0.6%2.771.51
▸ 2026 Season
202622A+Lake County Captains204552505040920%2.715.4%18.4%-3.0%4.5%6.096.60-1.3
ROS22MLBCLE42045188472350%1.124.9%12.3%12.6%2.9%4.504.50+0.0
ROS22MLBCLE024.9%12.3%12.6%2.8%4.504.50
2026 TOT22MLBCLE9943897631422.1%14.4%7.7%3.3%5.385.66-0.3
2026 FULL22MLBCLE0100024.9%12.3%12.6%2.8%4.504.11+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202723MLBCLE884619550226100%5.825.5%11.3%14.2%2.8%4.384.31+0.1
202824MLBCLE884820152216100%5.925.9%10.7%15.2%2.8%4.274.19+0.2
202925MLBCLE884820353216100%6.026.1%10.4%15.7%2.8%4.194.13+0.2
203026MLBCLE884820353216100%6.026.2%10.3%15.9%2.8%4.144.11+0.2
203127MLBCLE884720052216100%5.926.2%10.4%15.8%2.9%4.154.15+0.2
202723MLBCLE44239725113100%5.825.5%11.3%14.2%2.8%4.384.31+0.1
202824MLBCLE553313936154100%6.625.9%10.7%15.2%2.8%4.274.19+0.1
202925MLBCLE663916543175100%6.526.1%10.4%15.7%2.8%4.194.13+0.2
203026MLBCLE774217747185100%6.026.2%10.3%15.9%2.8%4.144.11+0.2
203127MLBCLE774318248195100%6.126.2%10.4%15.8%2.8%4.154.15+0.2
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career29291807611988021100%6.226.0%10.6%15.5%2.8%4.203.78+3.4
/ 200 IP3332200844220892399%6.126.0%10.6%15.5%2.8%4.203.78+3.8
Career704423310681971652563%3.318.4%15.5%3.0%2.3%4.904.79+1.7
/ 200 IP60382009151691422163%3.318.4%15.5%3.0%2.3%4.904.79+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Jogly García (OGILVIE) 4.50 24.9%12.3%2.9% 4.21 25.8%15.0%142 -0.29
Michael Knorr R 2027 · 4.03 FIP 23 SP- 4.03 23.6%11.1%2.8%.312 5.16 22.3%9.9%93 +1.13 4.03 152 84
Jake Lyons R 2026 · 4.41 FIP 22 SP- 4.41 21.8%13.9%2.5%.325 4.72 19.4%9.2%105 +0.31 4.31 174 84
Ray Gaither R 2028 · 4.91 FIP 24 SP- 4.91 21.9%13.2%3.6%.314 4.49 18.6%4.7%123 -0.42 4.16 164 84
Casey Legumina R 2028 · 4.28 FIP 24 SP- 4.28 23.3%9.3%3.6%.260 4.34 20.5%11.0%189 +0.06 3.68 323 83
Connor Cooke R 2026 · 3.47 FIP 22 SP- 3.47 23.7%8.4%2.4%.350 4.29 24.6%10.4%56 +0.82 2.92 103 83
Carson Rudd R 2026 · 3.43 FIP 22 SP- 3.43 25.4%10.6%2.1%.351 5.24 21.6%5.6%193 +1.81 3.43 242 82
Mason McGwire R 2026 · 3.50 FIP 22 SP- 3.50 23.5%10.9%1.8%.306 3.50 128 81
Colin Fields R 2027 · 3.48 FIP 23 SP- 3.48 20.5%10.3%1.5%.246 4.20 21.6%12.8%184 +0.72 3.07 229 81
Hunter Gregory R 2027 · 3.98 FIP 23 SP- 3.98 21.2%8.7%2.9%.374 4.64 20.5%7.6%188 +0.66 3.18 234 80
Noah Skirrow R 2027 · 4.34 FIP 23 SP- 4.34 18.4%11.5%2.4%.306 4.68 16.2%5.7%316 +0.34 3.90 371 79
Chris Campos R 2026 · 4.86 FIP 22 SP- 4.86 21.0%11.8%3.7%.364 4.57 18.7%11.7%237 -0.29 4.43 306 79
Zach Messinger R 2026 · 3.96 FIP 22 SP- 3.96 23.0%14.7%1.7%.317 4.30 18.8%7.3%314 +0.34 3.68 444 79
Noah Denoyer R 2027 · 4.45 FIP 23 SP- 4.45 21.5%12.1%3.0%.275 4.09 25.9%14.9%121 -0.36 3.05 181 79
Tanner Hall R 2026 · 4.56 FIP 22 SP- 4.56 18.8%11.2%3.0%.295 5.39 10.1%-4.6%72 +0.83 4.56 137 78
Grant Ford R 2027 · 5.34 FIP 23 SW 5.34 20.1%13.2%4.1%.300 4.57 19.0%4.5%112 -0.77 3.96 188 78
J.C. Flowers R 2027 · 3.39 FIP 23 SP- 3.39 21.3%8.7%1.8%.330 4.95 16.5%1.9%184 +1.56 3.39 281 77
John Matthews R 2027 · 4.88 FIP 23 SW 4.88 18.6%10.4%3.7%.351 4.67 15.5%1.6%145 -0.21 4.40 213 77
Juan Mendez R 2026 · 4.47 FIP 22 SW 4.47 20.5%14.2%2.4%.271 5.06 21.9%6.1%128 +0.59 3.55 156 77
Nathanael Santiago R 2029 · 3.47 FIP 25 SP- 3.47 20.3%11.4%1.2%.286 3.51 23.2%10.9%71 +0.04 2.45 138 77
Jack Ralston R 2027 · 3.50 FIP 23 SW 3.50 28.0%14.9%1.6%.270 4.25 24.7%7.3%124 +0.75 3.50 299 77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION64725.8%10.9%1.094.27
Lucas Sims ('24)64727.6%11.6%1.244.22
Hansel Robles ('22)75925.3%10.1%1.163.86
José Cisnero ('23)54224.8%11.3%0.943.84
Wade Davis ('21)65327.3%10.4%0.903.77
Fernando Rodney ('19)55924.6%11.8%0.884.21
Cam Bedrosian ('21)64524.5%10.0%0.973.68