Jack Ralston

P Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 29 RHP 6'6" / 231 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	AASTL	40	0	63	2.73	3.80	31.1%	11.3%	—	K 25.2% · BB 12.4% · FIP 4.21
2025	27	MIX2 levels	38	0	57	3.61	4.20	28.0%	16.7%	—	K 23.1% · BB 17.2% · FIP 4.79
2026	28	MIX2 levels	55	1	77	2.57	3.96	29.6%	11.6%	0.5	K 26.3% · BB 10.7% · FIP 4.29
2027PROJ	29	MLBMIA	32	0	34	4.53	4.72	25.2%	12.2%	-0.1
2028PROJ78% MLB	30	MLBMIA	29	0	30	4.73	4.89	24.4%	12.2%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.5 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%64

FB Velo37

xwOBA vs37

Form6.91 ERA (proj 4.53) · K 25.8% (proj 25.2%) · BB 13.6% (proj 12.2%) · last 60d · 14 IP through Oct 27

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.5, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsJason Bulger (age 29) · Joe Nelson (age 31) · Cody Hall (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.53

FIP4.72

K%25.2%

BB%12.2%

K-BB%13.1%

Proj IP48

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 48 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3793.6

Whiff%

p1017.6%

p6424.7%

xwOBA vs

p370.327

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	28	11	67	278	101	36	4	39%	2.4	28.0%	14.9%	13.1%	1.7%	3.49	3.55	—
2021	23	A+ RAW	Peoria Chiefs	28	11	67	278	101	36	4	39%	2.4	36.3%	12.9%	23.4%	1.4%	3.49	2.47	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	1	27	118	38	24	2	5%	1.2	24.9%	24.4%	0.5%	2.4%	4.00	5.38	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	1	27	118	38	24	2	5%	1.2	32.2%	20.3%	11.9%	1.7%	4.00	3.91	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	36	159	48	30	1	0%	1.2	23.7%	21.1%	2.6%	0.7%	4.95	4.16	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	0	36	159	48	30	1	0%	1.2	30.2%	18.9%	11.3%	0.6%	4.95	3.29	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	40	0	63	257	80	29	9	0%	1.6	25.2%	12.4%	12.8%	3.0%	2.73	4.21	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	40	0	63	257	80	29	9	0%	1.6	25.2%	12.4%	12.8%	3.0%	2.73	4.21	—
2024	26	AA RAW	Springfield Cardinals	40	0	63	257	80	29	9	0%	1.6	31.1%	11.3%	19.8%	3.5%	2.73	3.80	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	57	257	72	43	6	0%	1.5	23.1%	17.2%	6.0%	2.7%	3.61	4.79	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	57	257	72	43	6	0%	1.5	23.1%	17.2%	6.0%	2.7%	3.61	4.79	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	57	257	72	43	6	0%	1.5	28.0%	16.7%	11.3%	2.3%	3.61	4.20	—
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	1	77	318	94	37	11	2%	1.4	26.3%	10.7%	15.5%	3.7%	2.57	4.29	+0.2
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	1	77	318	94	37	11	2%	1.4	26.3%	10.7%	15.5%	3.7%	2.57	4.29	+0.2
2026	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	55	1	77	318	94	37	11	2%	1.4	29.6%	11.6%	17.9%	3.5%	2.57	3.96	+0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			16	1	17	77	19	8	5	6%	1.1	24.7%	10.4%	14.3%	6.5%	5.71	6.04	-0.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	MIA	32	0	34	144	36	17	5	0%	1.1	25.2%	12.2%	13.1%	3.3%	4.53	4.72	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	MIA	36	0	38	161	39	20	6	0%	1.1	24.4%	12.2%	12.2%	3.5%	4.73	4.89	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	MIA	29	0	30	127	31	15	4	0%	1.0	24.4%	12.2%	12.2%	3.5%	4.73	4.89	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		44	1	47	202	50	23	9	2%	1.1	24.5%	11.5%	13.0%	4.6%	5.09	5.04	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		188	4	200	861	213	98	38	2%	1.1	24.5%	11.5%	13.0%	4.6%	5.09	5.04	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		213	13	327	1387	353	214	35	6%	1.5	25.4%	15.4%	10.0%	2.5%	3.35	4.30	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		130	8	200	847	215	131	21	6%	1.5	25.4%	15.4%	10.0%	2.5%	3.35	4.30	-1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 60 IPFIP 3.36 → 3.71 (+0.35)K% 31.1% → 26.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.12%	—	×0.860	26.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.03%	—	×0.900	10.83%
HR / BF /BF	2.49%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.74%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.36 → 3.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AASpringfield Cardinals · 39 IPFIP 3.92 → 4.71 (+0.79)K% 29.6% → 24.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.59%	—	×0.810	23.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.98%	—	×1.100	17.57%
HR / BF /BF	2.37%	÷1.105	×1.200	2.57%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 121).

Result: FIP 3.92 → 4.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 18 IPFIP 4.54 → 4.94 (+0.40)K% 25.0% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.860	21.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.18%	—	×0.900	16.36%
HR / BF /BF	2.27%	÷0.869	×1.100	2.88%

Result: FIP 4.54 → 4.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AASpringfield Cardinals · 63 IPFIP 3.82 → 4.21 (+0.38)K% 31.1% → 25.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.13%	—	×0.810	25.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.28%	—	×1.100	12.41%
HR / BF /BF	3.50%	÷1.386	×1.200	3.03%

Result: FIP 3.82 → 4.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AASpringfield Cardinals · 17 IPFIP 4.44 → 5.08 (+0.64)K% 20.7% → 16.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.73%	—	×0.810	16.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	24.39%	—	×1.100	26.83%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.080	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 4.44 → 5.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Peoria Chiefs · 19 IPFIP 2.06 → 3.19 (+1.13)K% 40.3% → 31.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.26%	—	×0.770	31.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.99%	—	×1.150	14.94%
HR / BF /BF	1.30%	÷1.093	×1.250	1.49%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 119).

Result: FIP 2.06 → 3.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 APalm Beach Cardinals · 12 IPFIP 5.32 → 6.72 (+1.40)K% 19.3% → 14.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.30%	—	×0.740	14.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	22.81%	—	×1.180	26.91%
HR / BF /BF	1.75%	÷0.880	×1.300	2.59%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 76).

Result: FIP 5.32 → 6.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Peoria Chiefs · 13 IPFIP 2.54 → 3.94 (+1.40)K% 47.2% → 36.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	47.17%	—	×0.770	36.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.87%	—	×1.150	21.70%
HR / BF /BF	1.89%	÷1.114	×1.250	2.12%

Result: FIP 2.54 → 3.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jack Ralston (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.72	25.2%	12.2%	3.3%	—	4.89	24.4%	12.2%	38	+0.17	—	—	—
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	90
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	83
Cody Hall R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	29	SU	4.03	26.8%	10.0%	3.5%	.299	3.92	25.9%	8.4%	19	-0.11	3.51	134	83
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	81
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	81
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	80
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	160	79
Scott Atchison R 2004 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	27.1%	9.0%	3.0%	.309	4.55	19.1%	11.5%	31	+0.94	2.52	340	79
Jose Veras R 2010 · 4.10 FIP	29	SU	4.10	26.9%	14.4%	2.6%	.239	3.42	25.3%	14.8%	201	-0.68	3.37	422	78
Manny Acosta R 2010 · 3.61 FIP	29	SU	3.61	26.8%	10.8%	2.5%	.277	4.12	21.9%	12.6%	94	+0.51	3.08	350	78
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	78
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	78
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	77
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	76
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	76
Alex Powers R 2021 · 4.24 FIP	29	SU	4.24	25.0%	10.3%	3.5%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.82	264	76
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	76
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	76
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	76
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.5	52	24.8%	12.1%	1.53	4.80
Amir Garrett ('24)	1.7	55	26.7%	13.3%	1.52	4.95
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
J.J. Hoover ('18)	1.4	57	23.8%	11.4%	1.42	4.17
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Jeff Jones ('80-'84, -2 WAR*)	1.0	41	22.0%*	12.4%*	1.48*	4.53*