Jack Ralston — OGILVIE

Jack Ralston P Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 28 RHP 6'6" / 231 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION69 act + 3 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 103

ERA4.55

FIP4.55

K%23.7%

BB%14.8%

K-BB%8.9%

ROS IP3

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 72 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	28	11	67	278	101	36	4	39%	2.4	28.0%	14.9%	13.1%	1.7%	3.49	3.55	—
2021	23	A+ RAW	Peoria Chiefs	28	11	67	278	101	36	4	39%	2.4	36.3%	12.9%	23.4%	1.4%	3.49	2.47	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	1	27	118	38	24	2	5%	1.2	24.9%	24.4%	0.5%	2.4%	4.00	5.38	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	1	27	118	38	24	2	5%	1.2	32.2%	20.3%	11.9%	1.7%	4.00	3.91	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	36	159	48	30	1	0%	1.2	23.7%	21.1%	2.6%	0.7%	4.95	4.16	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	36	159	48	30	1	0%	1.2	23.7%	21.1%	2.6%	0.7%	4.95	4.16	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	0	36	159	48	30	1	0%	1.2	30.2%	18.9%	11.3%	0.6%	4.95	3.29	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	40	0	63	257	80	29	9	0%	1.6	25.2%	12.4%	12.8%	3.0%	2.73	4.21	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	40	0	63	257	80	29	9	0%	1.6	25.2%	12.4%	12.8%	3.0%	2.73	4.21	—
2024	26	AA RAW	Springfield Cardinals	40	0	63	257	80	29	9	0%	1.6	31.1%	11.3%	19.8%	3.5%	2.73	3.80	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	57	257	72	43	6	0%	1.5	22.9%	17.2%	5.7%	2.7%	3.61	4.81	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	57	257	72	43	6	0%	1.5	22.9%	17.2%	5.7%	2.7%	3.61	4.81	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	57	257	72	43	6	0%	1.5	28.0%	16.7%	11.3%	2.3%	3.61	4.20	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			9	0	9	39	8	5	1	0%	1.0	20.5%	12.8%	7.7%	2.6%	3.86	4.39	+0.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	48	0	69	280	83	34	7	0%	1.4	25.8%	10.8%	15.0%	2.7%	1.96	3.79	—
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	48	0	69	280	83	34	7	0%	1.4	25.8%	10.8%	15.0%	2.7%	1.96	3.79	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AAA RAW	MIA	39	0	60	241	75	29	6	0%	1.5	31.1%	12.0%	19.1%	2.5%	1.66	3.36	—
2026	28	MLB RAW	MIA	9	0	9	39	8	5	1	0%	1.0	20.5%	12.8%	7.7%	2.6%	3.86	4.40	—
SO FAR	28	MLB RAW	MIA	9	0	9	39	8	5	1	0%	1.0	20.5%	12.8%	7.7%	2.6%	3.86	4.40	—
ROS	28	MLB MLE	MIA	3	0	3	14	3	2	0	0%	1.1	23.7%	14.8%	8.9%	2.9%	4.55	4.55	-0.0
ROS	28	MLB CTX	MIA	3	0	3	13	3	2	0	0%	1.0	23.7%	14.8%	8.9%	2.9%	4.55	4.55	-0.0
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	MIA	—	—	72	294	86	36	7	—	—	29.4%	12.3%	17.1%	2.5%	2.08	3.83	+0.7
FULL	28	MLB A+C	MIA	—	—	13	53	86	36	7	—	—	161.6%	67.5%	94.1%	13.9%	11.86	5.62	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	MIA	36	0	38	159	36	23	5	0%	1.0	22.8%	14.6%	8.1%	3.0%	5.02	5.07	-0.2
2027	29	MLB CTX	MIA	34	0	36	152	35	22	5	0%	1.1	22.8%	14.6%	8.1%	3.0%	5.02	5.07	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		46	0	48	204	46	29	6	0%	1.1	22.4%	14.3%	8.1%	2.9%	4.76	4.63	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		191	0	200	843	190	120	25	0%	1.0	22.4%	14.3%	8.1%	2.9%	4.76	4.63	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		206	12	319	1349	341	210	31	6%	1.6	25.3%	15.6%	9.7%	2.3%	3.24	4.20	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		129	8	200	845	213	132	19	6%	1.6	25.3%	15.6%	9.7%	2.3%	3.24	4.20	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jack Ralston (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.03	23.3%	15.2%	2.9%	—	5.07	22.8%	8.1%	38	+0.04	—	—	—
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	88
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.95	260	86
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.07	26.7%	16.7%	73	-0.97	2.28	118	85
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	83
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	82
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	81
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	81
Theo Denlinger R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	27	SU	4.21	19.8%	15.1%	1.6%	.266	4.23	15.3%	9.9%	41	+0.02	2.92	140	80
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	28	SU	4.43	23.3%	13.6%	2.9%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	2.64	315	80
Jeff Ames R 2019 · 4.45 FIP	28	SU	4.45	25.6%	16.8%	2.5%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	272	79
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	79
José A. Váldez R 2018 · 4.02 FIP	28	SU	4.02	23.1%	16.2%	1.5%	.325	4.21	16.8%	6.2%	103	+0.19	4.02	328	79
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	78
Erik Davis R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	28	SU	3.95	17.9%	13.5%	1.2%	.363	3.64	21.1%	11.3%	181	-0.31	3.05	227	78
Kevin Lenik R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	27	SU	4.91	21.7%	14.9%	3.2%	.205	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	107	78
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	78
Gregory Infante R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	28	SU	4.54	16.9%	15.7%	1.6%	.290	3.78	21.3%	12.7%	181	-0.76	2.97	230	77
Arcenio Leon R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	17.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.450	3.37	18.0%	9.1%	85	-1.36	3.00	115	77
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	159	77
Josh Zeid R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	28	SU	4.12	16.6%	12.5%	1.6%	.302	5.19	16.9%	5.7%	194	+1.07	4.12	265	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	38	23.0%	14.9%	1.14	5.03
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41