Luis Contreras
P
Sugar Land Space Cowboys
+0.1
WAR
Age 30
RHP
6'1" / 175 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA5.46
FIP4.60
xFIP5.41
SIERA4.80
K%22.3%
BB%12.1%
K-BB%10.2%
IP54
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL3535
CMD4040
K†5050
FB Velo
p1091.1
Whiff%
p9032.3%
K%
p6024.1%
xwOBA vs
p710.292
SI (1%)
CU (12%)
SL (20%)
FB (52%)
CH-1.0 (17%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 23 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 16 | 4 | 50 | 203 | 73 | 22 | 3 | 26.4% | 12.8% | 2.0% | 2.86 | 3.58 | +0.8 |
| 2021 | 25 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 3 | 3 | 9 | 40 | 19 | 3 | 2 | — | — | — | 5.19 | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 35 | 0 | 51 | 223 | 73 | 29 | 4 | 26.8% | 12.4% | 1.3% | 3.88 | 3.13 | +1.1 |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 39 | 0 | 63 | 283 | 90 | 27 | 7 | 27.3% | 10.1% | 2.9% | 4.55 | 3.68 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Houston Astros | 52 | 0 | 53 | 206 | 56 | 21 | 3 | 24.4% | 11.1% | 2.1% | 2.56 | 3.57 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | Houston Astros | 54 | 0 | 58 | 255 | 55 | 36 | 5 | 19.6% | 14.7% | 2.2% | 4.47 | 4.49 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 54 | — | 54 | 227 | 49 | 31 | 6 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 2.7% | 5.70 | 4.84 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 52 | — | 52 | 219 | 47 | 29 | 6 | 21.3% | 13.2% | 2.8% | 5.19 | 4.89 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 50 | — | 50 | 210 | 44 | 27 | 6 | 20.8% | 13.1% | 2.9% | 5.04 | 4.96 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 48 | — | 48 | 201 | 41 | 26 | 6 | 20.3% | 13.1% | 3.0% | 5.04 | 5.06 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 45 | — | 45 | 190 | 37 | 25 | 6 | 19.7% | 13.2% | 3.1% | 5.11 | 5.18 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | HOU | 42 | — | 42 | 179 | 34 | 24 | 6 | 18.9% | 13.4% | 3.2% | 5.24 | 5.33 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | HOU | 40 | — | 40 | 168 | 30 | 23 | 6 | 18.1% | 13.6% | 3.3% | 5.39 | 5.49 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 199 | 7 | 284 | 1210 | 310 | 145 | 27 | 25.6% | 12.0% | 2.2% | 3.77 | 3.68 | +5.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 140 | 5 | 200 | 851 | 218 | 102 | 19 | 25.6% | 12.0% | 2.2% | 3.77 | 3.68 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Contreras (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.84 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 2.7% | — | 4.97 | 20.8% | 7.7% | 149 | +0.13 | — | — | — |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .303 | 3.87 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.43 | 3.01 | 260 | 77 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 76 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.72 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.6% | .287 | 3.88 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.16 | 3.38 | 129 | 76 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 75 |
| AJ Ramos R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.96 | 27.9% | 12.8% | 2.9% | .288 | 5.08 | 25.0% | 8.0% | 20 | +1.12 | 2.55 | 266 | 73 |
| Louis Coleman R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.98 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .288 | 3.64 | 22.0% | 10.9% | 144 | -0.34 | 3.10 | 256 | 73 |
| André Rienzo R 2025 · 4.38 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.38 | 18.9% | 15.6% | 1.6% | .301 | 5.33 | 17.9% | 6.1% | 29 | +0.95 | 3.54 | 200 | 72 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 72 |
| Tyler Clippard R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.99 | 21.3% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .205 | 3.95 | 28.3% | 18.8% | 192 | -0.04 | 2.52 | 417 | 71 |
| Esteban Haro R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.58 | 17.1% | 10.2% | 3.0% | .338 | 3.79 | 11.6% | 6.3% | 75 | -0.79 | 3.73 | 164 | 71 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.24 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 2.9% | .349 | 3.54 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 65 | -0.70 | 3.05 | 227 | 71 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2027 · 3.75 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.75 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.9% | .244 | 4.71 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +0.96 | 3.75 | 521 | 71 |
| Justin Masterson R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.15 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 2.3% | .307 | 3.73 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 196 | -0.42 | 3.50 | 269 | 70 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.06 | 24.4% | 11.8% | 2.8% | .301 | 3.94 | 24.1% | 15.2% | 140 | -0.12 | 1.69 | 468 | 70 |
| Tim Lincecum R 2027 · 4.19 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.19 | 18.0% | 10.8% | 2.3% | .296 | 5.00 | 17.4% | 6.3% | 89 | +0.81 | 4.19 | 166 | 70 |
| Hector Velázquez R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.80 | 19.6% | 12.3% | 3.3% | .292 | 3.83 | 19.2% | 10.9% | 25 | -0.97 | 2.78 | 536 | 69 |
| Jean Machi R 2029 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 69 |
| Casey Coleman R 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.84 | 16.8% | 11.4% | 3.1% | .343 | 4.98 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 107 | +0.14 | 2.98 | 306 | 69 |
| Wil Browning R 2024 · 4.45 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.45 | 17.9% | 13.1% | 2.2% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.14 | 162 | 68 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.31 | 18.7% | 12.6% | 2.2% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 104 | 68 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.