Luis Contreras
P
Sugar Land Space Cowboys
Age 30
RHP
6'1" / 175 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 60 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132123vR 114
ERA4.76
FIP5.02
K%21.3%
BB%14.6%
K-BB%6.7%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1091.1
Whiff%
p9032.3%
K%
p6024.1%
xwOBA vs
p710.292
SI (1%)
CU (12%)
SL (20%)
FB (52%)
CH-1.0 (17%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 16 | 4 | 50 | 203 | 73 | 22 | 3 | 25% | 3.1 | 26.4% | 12.8% | 13.7% | 2.0% | 2.86 | 3.56 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 16 | 4 | 50 | 203 | 73 | 22 | 3 | 25% | 3.1 | 36.0% | 10.8% | 25.1% | 1.5% | 2.86 | 2.29 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 3 | 3 | 9 | 40 | 19 | 3 | 2 | 100% | 2.9 | 47.5% | 7.5% | 40.0% | 5.0% | 5.19 | 2.78 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 3 | 3 | 9 | 40 | 19 | 3 | 2 | 100% | 2.9 | 47.5% | 7.5% | 40.0% | 5.0% | 5.19 | 2.75 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 51 | 223 | 73 | 29 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 26.8% | 12.4% | 14.5% | 1.3% | 3.88 | 3.12 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 51 | 223 | 73 | 29 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 32.7% | 13.0% | 19.7% | 1.8% | 3.88 | 2.96 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 63 | 283 | 90 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.6 | 27.3% | 10.1% | 17.1% | 3.2% | 4.55 | 3.82 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 63 | 283 | 90 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.6 | 31.8% | 9.5% | 22.3% | 2.5% | 4.55 | 2.97 | — |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 0 | 53 | 206 | 56 | 21 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.4% | 11.1% | 13.4% | 2.3% | 2.56 | 3.69 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 0 | 53 | 206 | 56 | 21 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.2% | 10.2% | 17.0% | 1.5% | 2.56 | 2.91 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 0 | 58 | 255 | 55 | 36 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.6% | 14.7% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 4.47 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 0 | 58 | 255 | 55 | 36 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 14.1% | 7.5% | 2.0% | 4.47 | 4.18 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 63 | 0 | 66 | 278 | 59 | 41 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 14.6% | 6.7% | 2.7% | 4.76 | 5.02 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 59 | 0 | 62 | 260 | 54 | 37 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 14.4% | 6.4% | 3.0% | 4.98 | 5.18 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 54 | 0 | 57 | 240 | 48 | 35 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.2% | 14.4% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 5.19 | 5.37 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 22 | 0 | 23 | 97 | 20 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 14.4% | 6.4% | 3.0% | 4.98 | 5.18 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 30 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 26 | 19 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.2% | 14.4% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 5.19 | 5.37 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 65 | 0 | 72 | 308 | 66 | 43 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 7.4% | 3.0% | 5.70 | 4.69 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 182 | 0 | 200 | 856 | 183 | 119 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 7.4% | 3.0% | 5.70 | 4.69 | +1.7 | ||
| Career | — | 199 | 7 | 284 | 1210 | 310 | 145 | 28 | 4% | 1.4 | 25.6% | 12.0% | 13.6% | 2.3% | 3.77 | 3.73 | +5.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 140 | 5 | 200 | 851 | 218 | 102 | 20 | 4% | 1.4 | 25.6% | 12.0% | 13.6% | 2.3% | 3.77 | 3.73 | +3.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Contreras (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.02 | 21.3% | 14.6% | 2.7% | — | 5.27 | 20.5% | 6.1% | 118 | +0.25 | — | — | — |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 78 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 77 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 75 |
| Louis Coleman R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.00 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .288 | 3.66 | 22.0% | 10.9% | 144 | -0.34 | 3.03 | 256 | 72 |
| Esteban Haro R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.61 | 17.1% | 10.2% | 3.0% | .338 | 3.71 | 11.6% | 6.3% | 75 | -0.90 | 3.62 | 164 | 71 |
| André Rienzo R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.33 | 18.9% | 15.6% | 1.5% | .301 | 5.30 | 17.9% | 6.1% | 29 | +0.97 | 3.58 | 200 | 71 |
| AJ Ramos R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.86 | 27.9% | 12.8% | 2.7% | .288 | 5.03 | 25.0% | 8.0% | 20 | +1.17 | 2.55 | 266 | 70 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.38 | 18.7% | 12.6% | 2.3% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 104 | 70 |
| Cody Hall R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.95 | 25.9% | 17.5% | 1.5% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.53 | 134 | 70 |
| Noah Song R 2025 · 4.96 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.96 | 16.6% | 14.2% | 2.7% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 106 | 70 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.18 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .349 | 3.44 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 65 | -0.74 | 3.07 | 227 | 69 |
| Tyler Clippard R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.99 | 21.3% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .205 | 4.07 | 28.3% | 18.8% | 192 | +0.08 | 2.49 | 417 | 68 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2025 · 5.61 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.61 | 17.8% | 17.5% | 3.3% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 185 | 68 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 68 |
| Wil Browning R 2024 · 4.58 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.58 | 17.9% | 13.1% | 2.4% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.12 | 162 | 68 |
| Cole Sulser R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.54 | 19.0% | 16.0% | 1.9% | .238 | 3.53 | 26.2% | 16.9% | 118 | -1.01 | 2.29 | 538 | 68 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2029 · 5.47 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.47 | 15.0% | 14.5% | 3.3% | .300 | 4.24 | 20.9% | 13.0% | 145 | -1.23 | 3.83 | 208 | 68 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 5.70 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.70 | 19.9% | 14.1% | 4.5% | .261 | 3.75 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 101 | -1.95 | 2.59 | 309 | 68 |
| Hector Velázquez R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.76 | 19.6% | 12.3% | 3.2% | .292 | 3.91 | 19.2% | 10.9% | 25 | -0.85 | 2.82 | 536 | 67 |
| Jean Machi R 2029 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 67 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 61 | 20.8% | 14.5% | 1.14 | 4.97 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |