Luis Contreras — OGILVIE

Luis Contreras P Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 30 RHP 6'1" / 175 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.69

FIP4.90

K%20.4%

BB%13.2%

K-BB%7.2%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3535

CMD4040

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.1

Whiff%

p9032.3%

p6024.1%

xwOBA vs

p710.292

SI (1%)

CU (12%)

SL (20%)

FB (52%)

CH-1.0 (17%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	4	50	203	73	22	3	25%	3.1	26.4%	12.8%	13.7%	2.0%	2.86	3.59	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	16	4	50	203	73	22	3	25%	3.1	36.0%	10.8%	25.1%	1.5%	2.86	2.29	—
2021	25	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	3	3	9	40	19	3	2	100%	2.9	47.5%	7.5%	40.0%	5.0%	5.19	2.78	—
2021	25	AA RAW	Biloxi Shuckers	3	3	9	40	19	3	2	100%	2.9	47.5%	7.5%	40.0%	5.0%	5.19	2.75	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	51	223	73	29	4	0%	1.5	26.8%	12.4%	14.5%	1.3%	3.88	3.13	—
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	51	223	73	29	4	0%	1.5	32.7%	13.0%	19.7%	1.8%	3.88	2.96	—
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	63	283	90	27	7	0%	1.6	26.2%	9.1%	17.1%	3.0%	4.55	3.66	—
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	63	283	90	27	7	0%	1.6	26.2%	9.1%	17.1%	3.0%	4.55	3.66	—
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	63	283	90	27	7	0%	1.6	31.8%	9.5%	22.3%	2.5%	4.55	2.97	—
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	53	206	56	21	3	0%	1.0	23.1%	9.5%	13.6%	2.0%	2.56	3.47	+0.7
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	53	206	56	21	3	0%	1.0	23.1%	9.5%	13.6%	2.0%	2.56	3.47	+0.7
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	0	53	206	56	21	3	0%	1.0	27.2%	10.2%	17.0%	1.5%	2.56	2.91	+1.0
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	58	255	55	36	5	0%	1.1	18.8%	13.0%	5.7%	2.2%	4.47	4.35	+0.1
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	58	255	55	36	5	0%	1.1	18.8%	13.0%	5.7%	2.2%	4.47	4.35	+0.1
2025	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	0	58	255	55	36	5	0%	1.1	21.6%	14.1%	7.5%	2.0%	4.47	4.18	+0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			14	0	18	80	19	10	2	0%	1.3	23.8%	12.5%	11.2%	2.5%	7.50	4.10	+0.1
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	30	MLB	HOU	5	0	5	21	4	3	1	0%	1.0	20.4%	13.2%	7.2%	2.7%	4.69	4.90	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	HOU	59	0	62	260	52	34	8	0%	1.0	20.0%	13.2%	6.8%	2.9%	4.90	5.07	-0.4
2028	32	MLB MLE	HOU	54	0	57	240	47	32	8	0%	1.1	19.4%	13.3%	6.2%	3.2%	5.10	5.27	-0.5
2027	31	MLB CTX	HOU	22	0	23	97	19	13	3	0%	1.0	20.0%	13.2%	6.8%	2.9%	4.90	5.07	-0.1
2028	32	MLB CTX	HOU	30	0	31	131	25	17	4	0%	1.0	19.4%	13.3%	6.2%	3.2%	5.10	5.27	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		65	0	72	308	64	40	9	0%	1.1	20.7%	13.0%	7.7%	2.9%	5.64	4.61	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		182	0	200	856	178	111	25	0%	1.1	20.7%	13.0%	7.7%	2.9%	5.64	4.61	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		199	7	284	1210	302	135	27	4%	1.4	25.0%	11.2%	13.8%	2.2%	3.77	3.63	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		140	5	200	851	212	95	19	4%	1.4	25.0%	11.2%	13.8%	2.2%	3.77	3.63	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Contreras (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.90	20.4%	13.2%	2.7%	—	5.17	19.7%	6.5%	118	+0.27	—	—	—
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	80
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	77
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.95	260	77
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	76
Louis Coleman R 2016 · 3.87 FIP	30	SU	3.87	21.3%	10.4%	2.3%	.288	3.63	22.0%	10.9%	144	-0.24	3.10	256	74
Esteban Haro R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	30	SU	4.55	17.1%	10.2%	2.9%	.338	3.83	11.6%	6.3%	75	-0.72	3.76	164	74
Edwin Jackson R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	31	SU	3.77	17.5%	8.8%	1.9%	.244	4.71	17.6%	7.8%	377	+0.94	3.77	521	72
Dalier Hinojosa R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	30	SU	4.30	18.7%	12.6%	2.2%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	104	71
Tyler Clippard R 2015 · 3.99 FIP	30	SU	3.99	21.3%	9.6%	2.7%	.205	4.12	28.3%	18.8%	192	+0.13	2.49	417	71
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	4.12	186	71
André Rienzo R 2017 · 4.40 FIP	29	SW	4.40	18.9%	15.6%	1.7%	.301	5.33	17.9%	6.1%	29	+0.93	3.53	200	70
Erik Davis R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	30	SU	4.25	22.2%	11.1%	3.0%	.349	3.52	17.4%	8.5%	65	-0.73	3.05	227	70
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	70
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	69
Dustin McGowan R 2015 · 5.32 FIP	33	SU	5.32	15.0%	14.5%	3.0%	.300	4.23	20.9%	13.0%	145	-1.09	3.82	208	69
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	68
Ronald Peña R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	29	SU	4.49	16.5%	10.4%	2.7%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	187	68
AJ Ramos R 2017 · 3.86 FIP	30	SU	3.86	27.9%	12.8%	2.7%	.288	5.02	25.0%	8.0%	20	+1.16	2.55	266	68
Cody Hall R 2018 · 3.92 FIP	30	SU	3.92	25.9%	17.5%	1.5%	.244	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	134	67
Cole Sulser R 2020 · 4.51 FIP	30	SU	4.51	19.0%	16.0%	1.8%	.238	3.53	26.0%	16.9%	118	-0.98	2.39	547	67

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	61	20.0%	13.2%	1.13	4.89
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78