Donovan Zsak — OGILVIE

Donovan Zsak P Lake County Captains

Age 23 LHP 6'4" / 203 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 18 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123131vR 140

ERA5.60

FIP5.60

K%22.1%

BB%18.8%

K-BB%3.3%

ROS IP18

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 18 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	7	0	10	43	13	10	0	0%	1.4	30.2%	23.3%	7.0%	0.0%	1.86	3.49	—
2024	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	7	0	10	43	13	10	0	0%	1.4	30.2%	23.3%	7.0%	0.0%	1.86	3.49	—
2024	21	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	7	0	10	43	13	10	0	0%	1.4	30.2%	23.3%	7.0%	0.0%	1.86	3.51	—
2025	22	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	26	0	31	152	43	28	3	0%	1.2	20.9%	21.7%	-0.8%	2.2%	7.26	5.27	—
2025	22	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	26	0	31	152	43	28	3	0%	1.2	20.9%	21.7%	-0.8%	2.2%	7.26	5.27	—
2025	22	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	26	0	31	152	43	28	3	0%	1.2	28.3%	18.4%	9.9%	2.0%	7.26	4.29	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	34	0	46	200	60	32	4	0%	1.3	23.1%	18.4%	4.7%	2.5%	3.15	4.85	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	34	0	46	200	60	32	4	0%	1.3	23.1%	18.4%	4.7%	2.5%	3.15	4.85	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	CLE	34	0	46	200	60	32	4	0%	1.3	30.0%	16.0%	14.0%	2.0%	3.15	3.69	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	CLE	44	0	46	193	44	31	6	0%	1.0	22.7%	15.9%	6.8%	2.9%	5.29	5.17	-0.3
2028	25	MLB MLE	CLE	44	0	46	196	45	27	6	0%	1.1	23.2%	14.0%	9.1%	2.9%	5.03	4.89	-0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	CLE	19	0	20	84	19	13	2	0%	1.1	22.7%	15.9%	6.8%	2.9%	5.29	5.17	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	CLE	30	0	31	131	30	18	4	0%	1.0	23.2%	14.0%	9.1%	2.9%	5.03	4.89	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		48	0	51	213	49	31	6	0%	1.1	23.0%	14.8%	8.2%	2.9%	5.13	4.62	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	194	123	24	0%	1.1	23.0%	14.8%	8.2%	2.9%	5.13	4.62	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		67	0	86	395	91	80	8	0%	1.3	23.0%	20.2%	2.8%	2.1%	4.48	4.87	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		155	0	200	915	211	185	19	0%	1.3	23.0%	20.2%	2.8%	2.1%	4.48	4.87	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Donovan Zsak (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.60	22.1%	18.8%	2.9%	—	5.03	23.0%	8.0%	92	-0.57	—	—	—
Dillon Larsen L 2022 · 5.90 FIP	24	SU	5.90	21.7%	21.6%	3.5%	.277	4.65	18.0%	-4.1%	91	-1.25	4.04	120	91
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	89
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	89
Jeff Belge L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SU	4.91	24.0%	18.8%	2.7%	.343	3.68	24.2%	10.4%	131	-1.23	3.30	175	88
Triston Polley L 2021 · 4.88 FIP	24	SU	4.88	22.3%	20.0%	2.1%	.361	4.77	18.5%	5.2%	136	-0.11	4.15	151	87
Gil Luna L 2023 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	22.5%	24.5%	1.9%	.303	4.95	19.7%	-6.0%	73	-0.42	4.57	113	86
Joseph Menefee L 2023 · 4.50 FIP	23	SU	4.50	21.9%	18.5%	1.7%	.361	4.71	24.8%	6.0%	99	+0.21	3.22	146	84
Julian Bosnic L 2023 · 5.72 FIP	23	SU	5.72	22.5%	21.0%	3.4%	.206	4.74	19.1%	-0.1%	90	-0.98	4.31	136	83
Austin Hamilton L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.0%	15.6%	2.3%	.329	4.20	16.3%	8.9%	109	-0.72	4.02	135	83
Ben Harris L 2023 · 4.76 FIP	23	SU	4.76	25.4%	21.9%	1.9%	.252	5.32	22.4%	2.6%	76	+0.56	3.06	183	83
Nicolo Pinazzi L 2023 · 6.79 FIP	23	SU	6.79	19.3%	26.9%	3.5%	.307	2.58	30.1%	16.3%	62	-4.21	2.58	155	81
Christian Chamberlain L 2022 · 6.42 FIP	23	SU	6.42	23.4%	21.7%	4.6%	.330	4.15	23.9%	5.2%	99	-2.27	3.91	148	81
Trevor Seidenberger L 2015 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	18.1%	14.3%	2.3%	.248	6.29	13.1%	-1.8%	52	+1.65	4.64	101	80
Ty Madrigal L 2021 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	19.3%	15.7%	2.0%	.329	5.75	17.6%	2.4%	49	+1.19	4.56	107	80
Eric Torres L 2023 · 6.62 FIP	23	SU	6.62	21.2%	19.8%	5.1%	.283	4.18	26.5%	10.4%	56	-2.44	2.81	155	80
Brendan Cellucci L 2021 · 4.57 FIP	23	SU	4.57	26.3%	18.6%	2.4%	.398	4.63	23.4%	6.9%	172	+0.06	3.98	288	79
Fabian Williamson L 2015 · 5.31 FIP	26	SU	5.31	17.4%	17.9%	2.6%	.289	4.16	20.0%	8.2%	77	-1.15	3.39	154	79
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	79
Juan Pichardo L 2021 · 4.83 FIP	23	SU	4.83	17.7%	17.1%	1.9%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	103	79
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.6	37	22.8%	15.6%	1.13	5.23
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84