Jose Gutierrez
P
Columbia Fireflies
Age 23
RHP
6'1" / 155 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.6 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION77 act + 41 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120111vR 102
ERA4.46
FIP4.46
K%21.2%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%11.2%
ROS IP41
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 119 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | DSL KC Stewart | 7 | 5 | 18 | 71 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 71% | 2.5 | 13.4% | 3.5% | 9.9% | 1.5% | 3.06 | 3.23 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | DSL KC Stewart | 7 | 5 | 18 | 71 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 71% | 2.5 | 19.7% | 2.8% | 16.9% | 1.4% | 3.06 | 2.59 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | DSL Royals Blue | 6 | 2 | 16 | 71 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 33% | 2.7 | 16.3% | 5.3% | 11.0% | 2.4% | 4.50 | 3.74 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | DSL Royals Blue | 6 | 2 | 16 | 71 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 33% | 2.7 | 23.9% | 4.2% | 19.7% | 1.4% | 4.50 | 2.35 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 13 | 66 | 287 | 62 | 30 | 2 | 65% | 3.3 | 15.4% | 12.6% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 3.80 | 4.01 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 13 | 66 | 287 | 62 | 30 | 2 | 65% | 3.3 | 21.6% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 0.7% | 3.80 | 2.98 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 17 | 13 | 77 | 323 | 74 | 23 | 9 | 76% | 4.5 | 17.0% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 3.6% | 3.38 | 4.72 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | KC | 7 | 7 | 41 | 175 | 37 | 18 | 5 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.2% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 2.7% | 4.46 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | KC | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.2% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 2.6% | 4.41 | 4.41 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | KC | — | — | 119 | 498 | 111 | 41 | 14 | — | — | 22.3% | 8.1% | 14.2% | 2.8% | 3.75 | 4.63 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | KC | 8 | 8 | 42 | 179 | 39 | 17 | 5 | 100% | 5.3 | 22.0% | 9.5% | 12.5% | 2.7% | 4.37 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | KC | 7 | 7 | 43 | 181 | 41 | 17 | 5 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.4% | 9.2% | 13.3% | 2.7% | 4.29 | 4.24 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | KC | 7 | 7 | 43 | 181 | 41 | 17 | 5 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.7% | 9.1% | 13.6% | 2.7% | 4.25 | 4.22 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | KC | 7 | 7 | 42 | 179 | 41 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 13.5% | 2.8% | 4.26 | 4.26 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | KC | 7 | 7 | 41 | 173 | 39 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.6% | 9.3% | 13.2% | 2.9% | 4.31 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | KC | 3 | 3 | 18 | 76 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.0% | 9.5% | 12.5% | 2.6% | 4.32 | 4.27 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | KC | 5 | 5 | 28 | 118 | 27 | 11 | 3 | 100% | 5.6 | 22.4% | 9.2% | 13.3% | 2.6% | 4.24 | 4.19 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | KC | 6 | 6 | 34 | 144 | 33 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.7% | 9.1% | 13.6% | 2.7% | 4.20 | 4.17 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | KC | 6 | 6 | 36 | 152 | 35 | 14 | 4 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 13.5% | 2.7% | 4.21 | 4.21 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | KC | 6 | 6 | 36 | 152 | 34 | 14 | 4 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.6% | 9.3% | 13.2% | 2.8% | 4.26 | 4.30 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 26 | 26 | 153 | 646 | 146 | 60 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.5% | 9.2% | 13.3% | 2.7% | 4.24 | 3.85 | +2.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 191 | 78 | 22 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.5% | 9.2% | 13.3% | 2.7% | 4.24 | 3.85 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 50 | 33 | 177 | 752 | 120 | 69 | 18 | 66% | 3.5 | 15.9% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 2.4% | 3.60 | 4.21 | +2.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 56 | 37 | 200 | 848 | 135 | 78 | 20 | 66% | 3.5 | 15.9% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 2.4% | 3.60 | 4.21 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jose Gutierrez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.46 | 21.2% | 10.0% | 2.7% | — | 4.26 | 22.4% | 13.1% | 128 | -0.20 | — | — | — |
| Michael Knorr R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .312 | 5.16 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +1.13 | 4.03 | 152 | 91 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.45 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .275 | 4.09 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.36 | 3.05 | 181 | 89 |
| Ricky Castro R 2027 · 3.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.93 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .287 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 140 | +0.65 | 3.90 | 202 | 89 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2027 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.78 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.43 | 4.25 | 412 | 87 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.53 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.05 | 4.07 | 338 | 87 |
| Noah Skirrow R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 2.4% | .306 | 4.68 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 316 | +0.34 | 3.90 | 371 | 85 |
| Hunter Gregory R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.98 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .374 | 4.64 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 188 | +0.66 | 3.18 | 234 | 85 |
| Pat Gallagher R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.56 | 21.9% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .284 | 3.43 | 20.0% | 10.3% | 195 | -0.13 | 2.97 | 258 | 84 |
| J.C. Flowers R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.39 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 4.95 | 16.5% | 1.9% | 184 | +1.56 | 3.39 | 281 | 84 |
| Ryan Jennings R 2027 · 3.29 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.29 | 23.4% | 11.9% | 1.2% | .316 | 4.60 | 23.0% | 9.5% | 109 | +1.31 | 3.29 | 142 | 84 |
| Colin Fields R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.48 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 1.5% | .246 | 4.20 | 21.6% | 12.8% | 184 | +0.72 | 3.07 | 229 | 83 |
| Ray Gaither R 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.91 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .314 | 4.49 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.42 | 4.16 | 164 | 83 |
| Keith Rogalla R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.55 | 21.2% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .344 | 3.62 | 18.0% | 5.9% | 65 | +0.07 | 3.00 | 113 | 83 |
| Nick Fraze R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.68 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 4.1% | .271 | 4.64 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 162 | -0.04 | 3.81 | 278 | 83 |
| Casey Legumina R 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 82 |
| Zach Peek R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.57 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .339 | 3.40 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 45 | -0.17 | 3.40 | 233 | 82 |
| Brett Gillis R 2028 · 3.37 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.37 | 20.3% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .278 | 5.10 | 15.8% | 6.7% | 73 | +1.73 | 3.37 | 119 | 82 |
| Ian Bedell R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.64 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 1.9% | .285 | 5.72 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 178 | +2.08 | 3.64 | 274 | 81 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.37 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.01 | 3.42 | 237 | 81 |
| Nathanael Santiago R 2028 · 3.47 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.47 | 20.3% | 11.4% | 1.2% | .286 | 3.51 | 23.2% | 10.9% | 71 | +0.04 | 2.45 | 138 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 42 | 22.3% | 9.4% | 1.07 | 4.32 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Cam Bedrosian ('21) | 6 | 45 | 24.5% | 10.0% | 0.97 | 3.68 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |