Jose Gutierrez — OGILVIE

Jose Gutierrez P Columbia Fireflies

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 155 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.2 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 41 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA5.00

FIP5.00

K%17.4%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%5.6%

ROS IP41

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 41 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$10M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-1	$0.6M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$0.9M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL KC Stewart	7	5	18	71	14	2	1	71%	2.5	13.4%	3.5%	9.9%	1.7%	3.06	3.34	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL KC Stewart	7	5	18	71	14	2	1	71%	2.5	19.7%	2.8%	16.9%	1.4%	3.06	2.59	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Blue	6	2	16	71	17	3	1	33%	2.7	16.3%	5.3%	11.0%	2.2%	4.50	3.59	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Blue	6	2	16	71	17	3	1	33%	2.7	16.3%	5.3%	11.0%	2.2%	4.50	3.59	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Blue	6	2	16	71	17	3	1	33%	2.7	23.9%	4.2%	19.7%	1.4%	4.50	2.35	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	13	66	287	62	30	2	65%	3.3	15.4%	12.6%	2.8%	1.0%	3.80	3.97	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	13	66	287	62	30	2	65%	3.3	15.4%	12.6%	2.8%	1.0%	3.80	3.97	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	13	66	287	62	30	2	65%	3.3	21.6%	10.5%	11.1%	0.7%	3.80	2.98	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	24	20	114	486	98	37	11	83%	4.8	14.9%	9.0%	5.9%	2.9%	3.62	4.59	—
YTD	23	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	24	20	114	486	98	37	11	83%	4.8	14.9%	9.0%	5.9%	2.9%	3.62	4.59	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	KC	24	20	114	486	98	37	11	83%	4.8	20.2%	7.6%	12.6%	2.3%	3.62	3.60	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	KC	20	20	115	485	92	52	13	100%	5.7	19.0%	10.7%	8.3%	2.7%	4.80	4.72	+0.2
2028	25	MLB MLE	KC	20	20	116	491	98	49	13	100%	5.8	19.9%	10.0%	9.9%	2.7%	4.64	4.56	+0.5
2029	26	MLB MLE	KC	19	19	116	491	100	48	13	100%	6.1	20.4%	9.8%	10.6%	2.7%	4.55	4.50	+0.5
2030	27	MLB MLE	KC	19	19	114	483	99	48	13	100%	6.0	20.4%	9.8%	10.6%	2.8%	4.54	4.54	+0.5
2031	28	MLB MLE	KC	19	19	111	469	95	47	14	100%	5.8	20.3%	10.0%	10.3%	2.9%	4.59	4.62	+0.4
2032	29	MLB MLE	KC	18	18	106	448	90	46	14	100%	5.9	20.1%	10.2%	9.8%	3.0%	4.69	4.75	+0.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	KC	17	17	100	421	83	44	14	100%	5.9	19.7%	10.5%	9.2%	3.2%	4.83	4.93	-0.0
2034	31	MLB MLE	KC	16	16	93	393	76	43	14	100%	5.8	19.3%	10.9%	8.4%	3.5%	5.01	5.13	-0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	KC	9	9	49	207	39	22	5	100%	5.4	19.0%	10.7%	8.3%	2.5%	4.69	4.61	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	KC	13	13	77	325	65	32	8	100%	5.9	19.9%	10.0%	9.9%	2.5%	4.53	4.45	+0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	KC	15	15	92	388	79	38	10	100%	6.1	20.4%	9.8%	10.6%	2.5%	4.44	4.39	+0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	KC	16	16	98	414	85	41	11	100%	6.1	20.4%	9.8%	10.6%	2.6%	4.43	4.43	+0.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	KC	16	16	99	418	85	42	11	100%	6.2	20.3%	10.0%	10.3%	2.7%	4.47	4.50	+0.3
2032	29	MLB CTX	KC	16	16	96	405	81	41	11	100%	6.0	20.1%	10.2%	9.8%	2.8%	4.56	4.62	+0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	KC	15	15	92	388	77	41	12	100%	6.1	19.7%	10.5%	9.2%	3.0%	4.70	4.80	-0.0
2034	31	MLB CTX	KC	14	14	87	367	71	40	12	100%	6.2	19.3%	10.9%	8.4%	3.2%	4.87	4.99	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		116	116	689	2911	581	297	80	100%	5.9	20.0%	10.2%	9.7%	2.7%	4.57	4.21	+5.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	169	86	23	100%	6.0	20.0%	10.2%	9.7%	2.7%	4.57	4.21	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		57	40	214	915	138	86	20	70%	3.8	15.0%	9.4%	5.6%	2.2%	3.70	4.22	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	37	200	854	128	80	19	70%	3.8	15.0%	9.4%	5.6%	2.2%	3.70	4.22	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Gutierrez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.00	17.4%	11.9%	2.7%	—	4.59	19.8%	9.6%	347	-0.41	—	—	—
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	92
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	86
Jordan Geber R 2022 · 5.03 FIP	23	SP-	5.03	15.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.341	4.39	15.4%	7.7%	176	-0.64	4.26	241	85
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	85
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	84
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	83
Stolmy Pimentel R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.0%	10.5%	2.5%	.338	3.87	13.6%	3.1%	72	-0.60	3.87	143	83
Levi Thomas R 2021 · 5.22 FIP	23	SP-	5.22	18.1%	11.9%	3.9%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.06	5.16	116	83
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	83
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	83
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	83
Nick Belzer R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	14.5%	9.1%	2.2%	.291	4.51	12.8%	4.2%	63	+0.28	4.23	112	82
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.84	17.7%	6.3%	200	+0.58	4.26	292	82
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	81
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	81
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	81
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	81
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	80
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	80
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.6	101	19.8%	10.3%	1.13	4.71
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25