Jose Gutierrez

P Columbia Fireflies

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 155 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.7 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#651ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	20	ROKDSL Royals Bl…	6	2	16	4.50	2.35	23.9%	4.2%	—	K 16.3% · BB 5.3% · FIP 3.59
2025	22	MIX2 levels	20	13	66	3.80	2.98	21.6%	10.5%	—	K 15.4% · BB 12.6% · FIP 3.97
2026	23	AKC	24	20	114	3.62	3.61	20.2%	7.6%	—	K 14.9% · BB 9.0% · FIP 4.59
2027PROJ	24	MLBKC	—	—	0	4.92	4.92	16.3%	9.8%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBKC	6	6	35	4.64	4.59	18.0%	9.2%	0.3
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBKC	8	8	50	4.53	4.49	19.0%	9.1%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsNick Dean (age 23) · Tyler Uberstine (age 23) · Cooper Chandler (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 110

ERA4.92

FIP4.92

K%16.3%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%6.5%

Proj IP69

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$17M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL KC Stewart	7	5	18	71	14	2	1	71%	2.5	13.4%	3.5%	9.9%	1.7%	3.06	3.34	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL KC Stewart	7	5	18	71	14	2	1	71%	2.5	19.7%	2.8%	16.9%	1.4%	3.06	2.59	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Blue	6	2	16	71	17	3	1	33%	2.7	16.3%	5.3%	11.0%	2.2%	4.50	3.59	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Blue	6	2	16	71	17	3	1	33%	2.7	23.9%	4.2%	19.7%	1.4%	4.50	2.35	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	13	66	287	62	30	2	65%	3.3	15.4%	12.6%	2.8%	1.0%	3.80	3.97	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	13	66	287	62	30	2	65%	3.3	15.4%	12.6%	2.8%	1.0%	3.80	3.97	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	13	66	287	62	30	2	65%	3.3	21.6%	10.5%	11.1%	0.7%	3.80	2.98	—
2026	23	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	24	20	114	486	98	37	11	83%	4.8	14.9%	9.0%	5.9%	2.9%	3.62	4.59	—
2026	23	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	24	20	114	486	98	37	11	83%	4.8	14.9%	9.0%	5.9%	2.9%	3.62	4.59	—
2026	23	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	24	20	114	486	98	37	11	83%	4.8	20.2%	7.6%	12.6%	2.3%	3.62	3.61	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	KC	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	16.3%	9.8%	6.5%	2.9%	4.92	4.92	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	KC	14	14	82	346	62	32	10	100%	5.9	18.0%	9.2%	8.7%	2.9%	4.76	4.71	+0.7
2029	26	MLB MLE	KC	13	13	76	322	61	29	9	100%	5.9	19.0%	9.1%	9.9%	2.9%	4.65	4.61	+0.7
2030	27	MLB MLE	KC	12	12	72	306	58	28	9	100%	6.0	19.1%	9.1%	10.0%	2.9%	4.63	4.63	+0.6
2031	28	MLB MLE	KC	11	11	68	288	55	27	9	100%	6.2	19.1%	9.2%	9.8%	3.0%	4.67	4.70	+0.6
2032	29	MLB MLE	KC	11	11	63	267	50	25	8	100%	5.7	18.8%	9.4%	9.4%	3.2%	4.77	4.83	+0.4
2033	30	MLB MLE	KC	10	10	57	241	45	23	8	100%	5.7	18.5%	9.7%	8.7%	3.4%	4.92	5.01	+0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	KC	6	6	35	148	27	14	4	100%	5.8	18.0%	9.2%	8.7%	2.7%	4.64	4.59	+0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	KC	8	8	50	211	40	19	6	100%	6.2	19.0%	9.1%	9.9%	2.7%	4.53	4.49	+0.5
2030	27	MLB CTX	KC	9	9	56	236	45	21	6	100%	6.2	19.1%	9.1%	10.0%	2.7%	4.51	4.51	+0.5
2031	28	MLB CTX	KC	10	10	57	241	46	22	7	100%	5.7	19.1%	9.2%	9.8%	2.8%	4.55	4.58	+0.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	KC	9	9	55	232	44	22	7	100%	6.1	18.8%	9.4%	9.4%	2.9%	4.64	4.70	+0.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	KC	8	8	51	215	40	21	7	100%	6.4	18.5%	9.7%	8.7%	3.1%	4.78	4.87	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		51	51	305	1290	242	120	36	100%	6.0	18.8%	9.3%	9.5%	2.8%	4.60	4.24	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	158	79	24	100%	6.0	18.8%	9.3%	9.5%	2.8%	4.60	4.24	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		57	40	214	915	138	86	20	70%	3.8	15.0%	9.4%	5.6%	2.2%	3.70	4.22	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	37	200	854	128	80	19	70%	3.8	15.0%	9.4%	5.6%	2.2%	3.70	4.22	+1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AColumbia Fireflies · 114 IPFIP 3.60 → 4.59 (+0.99)K% 20.2% → 14.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.16%	—	×0.740	14.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.61%	—	×1.180	8.98%
HR / BF /BF	2.26%	÷1.000	×1.300	2.94%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.60 → 4.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AColumbia Fireflies · 39 IPFIP 3.01 → 3.63 (+0.62)K% 17.2% → 12.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.20%	—	×0.740	12.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.75%	—	×1.180	12.69%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.086	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.01 → 3.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Royals · 27 IPFIP 2.93 → 4.58 (+1.65)K% 29.7% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.70%	—	×0.680	20.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.90%	—	×1.250	12.38%
HR / BF /BF	1.98%	÷0.939	×1.400	2.95%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).

Result: FIP 2.93 → 4.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKDSL Royals Blue · 16 IPFIP 2.39 → 3.59 (+1.21)K% 23.9% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.94%	—	×0.680	16.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.23%	—	×1.250	5.28%
HR / BF /BF	1.41%	÷0.903	×1.400	2.18%

Result: FIP 2.39 → 3.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKDSL KC Stewart · 18 IPFIP 2.56 → 3.34 (+0.78)K% 19.7% → 13.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.72%	—	×0.680	13.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.82%	—	×1.250	3.52%
HR / BF /BF	1.41%	÷1.166	×1.400	1.69%

Result: FIP 2.56 → 3.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Gutierrez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.92	16.3%	9.8%	2.9%	—	4.65	18.7%	9.5%	230	-0.27	—	—	—
Nick Dean R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.47	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.39	2.73	202	87
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	86
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	86
Logan Martin R 2024 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	16.9%	8.9%	2.1%	.278	4.58	17.6%	5.0%	140	+0.63	3.95	242	86
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	86
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	86
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	86
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	85
Jeremy Lee R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	16.8%	11.5%	1.9%	.318	5.21	11.2%	-0.5%	46	+1.04	4.17	125	85
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	85
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	85
Zach Miner R 2006 · 4.35 FIP	24	SP-	4.35	14.8%	7.8%	2.8%	.300	4.24	13.8%	4.6%	264	-0.11	3.55	386	84
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	84
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	83
Nick Belzer R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	14.5%	9.1%	2.2%	.291	4.51	12.8%	4.2%	63	+0.28	4.23	112	83
Brooks Hall R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	25	SP-	4.12	14.3%	6.9%	2.5%	.291	4.00	14.0%	7.0%	153	-0.12	3.45	274	83
Trenton Toplikar R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP-	4.32	14.8%	10.1%	2.2%	.248	5.39	16.5%	6.4%	123	+1.07	4.32	232	83
Cale Lansville R 2024 · 3.90 FIP	21	SP-	3.90	15.1%	7.7%	2.0%	.325	5.07	12.8%	0.1%	38	+1.17	3.90	113	82
Paxton Schultz R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	24	SP-	5.27	17.5%	12.2%	3.8%	.293	4.31	21.9%	11.8%	274	-0.96	3.83	543	82
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	70	18.4%	9.3%	1.16	4.75
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Aaron Heilman ('11)	3.1	70	20.1%	9.4%	1.03	4.40
Fred Scherman ('69-'76, 1 WAR*)	2.7	77	18.0%*	10.0%*	1.17*	4.29*
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*