Kyson Witherspoon

P Frederick Keys

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 206 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.0 · 2030

Overview

A+PROSPECTFG #249MiLBFA 2034

Scout OFP51ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	21	A+BAL	20	20	90	4.22	3.84	25.7%	11.5%	—	K 19.8% · BB 13.3% · FIP 4.91
2027PROJ	22	MLBBAL	18	18	90	4.96	4.96	21.7%	12.8%	-0.1
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBBAL	12	12	63	4.81	4.71	22.9%	11.3%	0.2
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBBAL	19	19	109	4.62	4.51	23.7%	10.4%	0.6

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$5M2032Arb-2$7M2033Arb-3$10M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff56Control52Command49FB velo61

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 13, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 82%

CompsCJ Van Eyk (age 22) · Aaron Davenport (age 22) · Will Sanders (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.96

FIP4.96

K%21.7%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%8.9%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$14M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5555

CTRL5050

CMD4050

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$6M	+$6M
2031	Arb-1	$5M	+1.1	$6M	+$3M
2032	Arb-2	$7M	+1.0	$5M	+$1M
2033	Arb-3	$10M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$14M		$23M	+$12M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	21	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	20	20	90	381	98	44	10	100%	4.5	19.8%	13.3%	6.5%	3.3%	4.22	4.91	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	20	20	90	381	98	44	10	100%	4.5	19.8%	13.3%	6.5%	3.3%	4.22	4.91	—
2026	21	A+ RAW	Frederick Keys	20	20	90	381	98	44	10	100%	4.5	25.7%	11.5%	14.2%	2.6%	4.22	3.84	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	BAL	18	18	90	380	82	49	12	100%	5.0	21.7%	12.8%	8.9%	3.1%	4.96	4.96	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	BAL	24	24	127	538	123	61	16	100%	5.3	22.9%	11.3%	11.6%	3.0%	4.74	4.64	+0.4
2029	24	MLB MLE	BAL	28	28	157	661	157	69	20	100%	5.6	23.7%	10.4%	13.3%	3.0%	4.55	4.44	+0.8
2030	25	MLB MLE	BAL	30	30	175	739	178	73	22	100%	5.8	24.1%	9.9%	14.2%	3.0%	4.41	4.33	+1.2
2031	26	MLB MLE	BAL	29	29	175	739	179	72	22	100%	6.0	24.2%	9.8%	14.5%	3.0%	4.34	4.30	+1.2
2032	27	MLB MLE	BAL	29	29	172	728	176	72	22	100%	5.9	24.2%	9.8%	14.4%	3.0%	4.34	4.34	+1.1
2033	28	MLB MLE	BAL	28	28	167	706	170	71	22	100%	6.0	24.1%	10.0%	14.1%	3.1%	4.39	4.42	+0.9
2034	29	MLB MLE	BAL	27	27	160	674	161	69	22	100%	5.9	23.8%	10.2%	13.6%	3.3%	4.49	4.56	+0.6
2035	30	MLB MLE	BAL	25	25	150	634	149	67	22	100%	6.0	23.5%	10.5%	13.0%	3.5%	4.64	4.73	+0.3
2036	31	MLB MLE	BAL	23	23	140	591	137	64	22	100%	6.1	23.1%	10.9%	12.2%	3.7%	4.82	4.94	-0.1
2037	32	MLB MLE	BAL	22	22	130	547	124	62	22	100%	5.9	22.7%	11.3%	11.4%	3.9%	5.03	5.16	-0.4
2028	23	MLB CTX	BAL	12	12	63	266	61	30	8	100%	5.2	22.9%	11.3%	11.6%	3.2%	4.81	4.71	+0.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	BAL	19	19	109	460	109	48	14	100%	5.7	23.7%	10.4%	13.3%	3.1%	4.62	4.51	+0.6
2030	25	MLB CTX	BAL	24	24	142	600	144	59	19	100%	5.9	24.1%	9.9%	14.2%	3.1%	4.48	4.40	+1.0
2031	26	MLB CTX	BAL	26	26	153	646	157	63	20	100%	5.9	24.2%	9.8%	14.5%	3.1%	4.41	4.37	+1.1
2032	27	MLB CTX	BAL	26	26	156	659	160	65	21	100%	6.0	24.2%	9.8%	14.4%	3.2%	4.41	4.41	+1.0
2033	28	MLB CTX	BAL	26	26	154	650	157	65	21	100%	5.9	24.1%	10.0%	14.1%	3.3%	4.47	4.50	+0.9
2034	29	MLB CTX	BAL	25	25	149	629	150	64	22	100%	6.0	23.8%	10.2%	13.6%	3.4%	4.57	4.64	+0.6
2035	30	MLB CTX	BAL	24	24	141	595	140	63	22	100%	5.9	23.5%	10.5%	13.0%	3.6%	4.73	4.82	+0.3
2036	31	MLB CTX	BAL	22	22	133	562	130	61	22	100%	6.0	23.1%	10.9%	12.2%	3.9%	4.91	5.03	-0.1
2037	32	MLB CTX	BAL	20	20	123	519	118	59	21	100%	6.2	22.7%	11.3%	11.4%	4.1%	5.13	5.26	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		224	224	1322	5583	1324	576	190	100%	5.9	23.7%	10.3%	13.4%	3.4%	4.63	4.27	+9.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	200	87	29	100%	5.9	23.7%	10.3%	13.4%	3.4%	4.63	4.27	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		20	20	90	381	75	51	12	100%	4.5	19.8%	13.3%	6.5%	3.3%	4.22	4.91	+6.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	45	200	850	168	113	28	100%	4.5	19.8%	13.3%	6.5%	3.3%	4.22	4.91	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kyson Witherspoon (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.96	21.7%	12.8%	3.1%	—	4.45	23.6%	13.2%	459	-0.51	—	—	—
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.18	457	94
Aaron Davenport R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	22	SP	4.81	20.0%	13.2%	3.2%	.280	4.94	16.9%	5.6%	391	+0.13	4.04	498	92
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	90
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.31	19.4%	6.5%	244	+0.97	4.34	382	89
Rick Van Den Hurk R 2007 · 4.88 FIP	22	SP	4.88	21.6%	11.3%	4.0%	.331	4.31	21.2%	12.5%	90	-0.57	3.27	172	88
Max Bain R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	20.5%	15.2%	3.5%	.291	6.70	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.49	5.21	174	88
Mason Hickman R 2021 · 4.69 FIP	22	SP	4.69	20.2%	10.2%	3.7%	.288	5.36	23.9%	11.1%	181	+0.67	4.69	300	88
Frank German R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	21	SP	5.01	19.5%	12.4%	3.6%	.308	4.56	18.9%	9.4%	123	-0.45	3.10	218	88
Cade Smith R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	23.2%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	5.35	18.2%	6.6%	157	+1.49	3.86	243	87
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	87
Jesse Foppert R 2003 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.2%	13.0%	3.2%	.274	7.32	11.3%	-13.2%	10	+2.52	4.80	121	87
Juaron Watts-Brown R 2024 · 5.25 FIP	22	SP	5.25	21.8%	15.4%	3.7%	.294	4.92	22.8%	10.9%	221	-0.33	4.16	324	87
Dinelson Lamet R 2015 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.69	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.67	2.11	778	86
Paxton Schultz R 2021 · 4.77 FIP	23	SP	4.77	19.7%	11.6%	3.4%	.353	4.69	20.3%	8.9%	305	-0.08	3.83	543	86
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.19	20.3%	11.0%	243	-0.06	3.94	353	86
Jordan Foley R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	22	SP	3.84	19.6%	12.1%	1.6%	.294	4.00	22.8%	9.3%	162	+0.16	3.21	305	86
Ty Cummings R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	19.0%	10.5%	2.8%	.329	5.36	14.4%	6.0%	178	+1.02	4.34	295	86
Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP	4.96	23.2%	13.6%	3.8%	.242	5.00	27.8%	20.2%	40	+0.04	4.96	159	86
Bryce Jarvis R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP	4.99	21.2%	11.0%	4.2%	.276	5.08	17.8%	6.3%	296	+0.09	4.14	536	85
Bryce Osmond R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	12.4%	4.4%	.294	7.13	16.7%	3.8%	80	+1.57	5.56	177	85

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8.2	149	23.6%	10.5%	1.24	4.57
Bill Stoneman ('67-'74, 7 WAR*)	6.2	155	22.8%*	11.1%*	1.25*	4.75*
Ken Kravec ('75-'82, 5 WAR*)	4.3	123	23.6%*	10.7%*	1.11*	4.73*
Bob Weiland ('28-'40, 10 WAR*)	6.9	139	22.6%*	9.9%*	1.15*	4.26*
Hideo Nomo ('08)	9.9	180	22.7%	10.7%	1.14	4.24
Ubaldo Jiménez ('17)	9.3	170	21.3%	10.5%	0.90	4.34
Edinson Volquez ('20)	7.7	129	19.5%	10.8%	0.93	4.45