Jacob Morrison

P Wilson Warbirds

Age 23 RHP A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.4 · 2029

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1362ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	MIX2 levels	15	12	51	4.76	3.85	26.3%	11.3%	—	K 19.8% · BB 13.2% · FIP 5.06
2027PROJ	23	MLBMIL	—	—	0	5.03	5.03	20.1%	12.1%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBMIL	5	5	26	4.92	4.84	21.1%	10.8%	0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBMIL	6	6	33	4.77	4.69	21.6%	10.0%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 2.0, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 89%

CompsNoah Denoyer (age 23) · Tanner Hall (age 22) · Ryan Atkinson (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 112

ERA5.03

FIP5.03

K%20.1%

BB%12.1%

K-BB%8.0%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$10M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$1M	+$0.6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	12	51	213	56	24	6	80%	3.4	19.8%	13.2%	6.6%	3.6%	4.76	5.06	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	12	51	213	56	24	6	80%	3.4	19.8%	13.2%	6.6%	3.6%	4.76	5.06	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	12	51	213	56	24	6	80%	3.4	26.3%	11.3%	15.0%	2.8%	4.76	3.85	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	MIL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.1%	12.1%	8.0%	3.1%	5.03	5.03	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	MIL	11	11	62	260	55	28	8	100%	5.6	21.1%	10.8%	10.2%	3.1%	4.84	4.76	+0.5
2029	25	MLB MLE	MIL	9	9	50	212	46	21	6	100%	5.6	21.6%	10.0%	11.6%	3.1%	4.69	4.61	+0.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	MIL	8	8	50	209	46	21	6	100%	6.2	21.9%	10.0%	12.0%	3.1%	4.61	4.57	+0.5
2031	27	MLB MLE	MIL	8	8	48	203	45	20	6	100%	6.0	21.9%	10.0%	11.9%	3.1%	4.60	4.60	+0.4
2028	24	MLB CTX	MIL	5	5	26	110	23	12	4	100%	5.2	21.1%	10.8%	10.2%	3.2%	4.92	4.84	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	MIL	6	6	33	139	30	14	4	100%	5.5	21.6%	10.0%	11.6%	3.2%	4.77	4.69	+0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	MIL	6	6	39	165	36	16	5	100%	6.5	21.9%	10.0%	12.0%	3.2%	4.69	4.65	+0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	MIL	7	7	41	173	38	17	6	100%	5.9	21.9%	10.0%	11.9%	3.3%	4.69	4.69	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		24	24	140	591	128	60	19	100%	5.8	21.7%	10.2%	11.5%	3.2%	4.75	4.33	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	183	86	27	100%	5.9	21.7%	10.2%	11.5%	3.2%	4.75	4.33	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		15	12	51	213	42	28	8	80%	3.4	19.8%	13.2%	6.6%	3.6%	4.76	5.06	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	47	200	835	165	110	30	80%	3.4	19.8%	13.2%	6.6%	3.6%	4.76	5.06	+1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AWilson Warbirds · 30 IPFIP 3.33 → 4.47 (+1.14)K% 26.9% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.92%	—	×0.740	19.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.08%	—	×1.180	15.43%
HR / BF /BF	1.54%	÷1.000	×1.300	2.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.33 → 4.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 21 IPFIP 4.68 → 5.99 (+1.31)K% 25.3% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.30%	—	×0.770	19.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.43%	—	×1.150	9.70%
HR / BF /BF	4.82%	÷1.000	×1.250	6.02%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.68 → 5.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jacob Morrison (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.65	21.5%	11.2%	162	-0.38	—	—	—
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	90
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	90
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	88
Levi Thomas R 2021 · 5.22 FIP	23	SP-	5.22	18.1%	11.9%	3.9%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.06	5.16	116	86
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	85
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	84
Jeremy Lee R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	16.8%	11.5%	1.9%	.318	5.21	11.2%	-0.5%	46	+1.04	4.17	125	83
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.15	22.0%	9.5%	123	+0.85	4.30	181	83
Angel Guzman R 2006 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	22.1%	13.2%	3.3%	.353	3.88	19.6%	12.0%	91	-0.85	3.13	147	83
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	82
James Proctor R 2021 · 3.99 FIP	23	SP	3.99	22.0%	15.2%	1.5%	.277	4.39	14.0%	1.5%	48	+0.40	3.99	109	82
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	82
Levi Wells R 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	20.0%	12.1%	2.6%	.360	3.82	19.0%	10.2%	132	-0.53	3.70	192	82
Dean Deetz R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP-	4.32	22.2%	13.7%	2.5%	.298	4.73	29.1%	10.7%	68	+0.41	2.61	281	81
Jimmy Endersby R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP-	4.29	20.9%	14.1%	2.1%	.310	5.71	16.3%	4.2%	225	+1.42	2.86	357	81
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	81
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	81
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	81
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.83	17.8%	6.5%	200	+0.57	4.26	292	81
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	54	21.3%	10.7%	1.19	4.77
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*