Ryan Birchard

P Biloxi Shuckers

Age 24 RHP 6'0" / 207 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #974

ETA2028FG ETA2027MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	MIX3 levels	10	9	21	6.33	4.32	28.6%	19.0%	—	K 18.2% · BB 29.3% · FIP 7.82
2025	22	A+MIL	25	22	104	3.91	3.51	26.8%	16.2%	—	K 20.7% · BB 18.6% · FIP 4.32
2026	23	AAMIL	34	2	50	4.68	4.80	35.2%	24.5%	—	K 28.5% · BB 26.9% · FIP 5.80
2027PROJ	24	MLBMIL	118	0	124	5.39	5.39	25.5%	20.0%	-1.2
2028PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBMIL	52	0	55	5.14	5.05	25.5%	17.3%	-0.3
2029PROJ67% MLB	26	MLBMIL	80	0	84	5.01	4.97	25.5%	16.6%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -1.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Command30FB velo55

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%

CompsEric Cerantola (age 24) · Austin Vernon (age 24) · Cole McDonald (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136127vR 119

ERA5.39

FIP5.39

K%25.5%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%5.5%

Proj IP124

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 124 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CMD2030

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	10	9	21	105	30	20	2	90%	2.1	18.2%	29.3%	-11.1%	4.6%	6.33	7.82	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	10	9	21	105	30	20	2	90%	2.1	18.2%	29.3%	-11.1%	4.6%	6.33	7.82	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	10	9	21	105	30	20	2	90%	2.1	28.6%	19.0%	9.5%	1.9%	6.33	4.32	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	25	22	104	451	121	73	5	88%	4.1	20.7%	18.6%	2.0%	1.1%	3.91	4.32	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	25	22	104	451	121	73	5	88%	4.1	20.7%	18.6%	2.0%	1.1%	3.91	4.32	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	25	22	104	451	121	73	5	88%	4.1	26.8%	16.2%	10.6%	1.1%	3.91	3.51	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	34	2	50	233	82	57	6	6%	1.5	28.5%	26.9%	1.6%	3.1%	4.68	5.80	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	34	2	50	233	82	57	6	6%	1.5	28.5%	26.9%	1.6%	3.1%	4.68	5.80	—
2026	23	AA RAW	Biloxi Shuckers	34	2	50	233	82	57	6	6%	1.5	35.2%	24.5%	10.7%	2.6%	4.68	4.80	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	MIL	118	0	124	524	134	105	15	0%	1.1	25.5%	20.0%	5.5%	2.8%	5.39	5.39	-1.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIL	119	0	125	529	135	92	15	0%	1.1	25.5%	17.3%	8.2%	2.8%	5.14	5.05	-0.7
2029	26	MLB MLE	MIL	119	0	125	529	135	88	15	0%	1.1	25.5%	16.6%	8.9%	2.8%	5.01	4.97	-0.6
2030	27	MLB MLE	MIL	117	0	123	521	132	84	15	0%	1.1	25.3%	16.2%	9.1%	2.9%	4.97	4.97	-0.6
2031	28	MLB MLE	MIL	114	0	120	505	127	82	15	0%	1.0	25.1%	16.1%	8.9%	3.0%	5.00	5.04	-0.7
2032	29	MLB MLE	MIL	109	0	114	482	120	79	15	0%	1.0	24.8%	16.4%	8.5%	3.1%	5.10	5.17	-0.8
2033	30	MLB MLE	MIL	102	0	107	453	111	75	15	0%	1.1	24.5%	16.7%	7.8%	3.3%	5.25	5.35	-1.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIL	52	0	55	232	59	40	6	0%	1.1	25.5%	17.3%	8.2%	2.8%	5.14	5.05	-0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	MIL	80	0	84	355	90	59	10	0%	1.1	25.5%	16.6%	8.9%	2.8%	5.01	4.97	-0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	MIL	91	0	96	405	102	66	12	0%	1.1	25.3%	16.2%	9.1%	2.9%	4.97	4.97	-0.5
2031	28	MLB CTX	MIL	96	0	101	426	107	69	13	0%	1.1	25.1%	16.1%	8.9%	3.0%	5.00	5.04	-0.6
2032	29	MLB CTX	MIL	95	0	100	422	105	69	13	0%	1.1	24.8%	16.4%	8.5%	3.1%	5.10	5.17	-0.7
2033	30	MLB CTX	MIL	92	0	97	410	100	68	14	0%	1.1	24.5%	16.7%	7.8%	3.3%	5.25	5.35	-0.9
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		506	0	532	2245	563	370	67	0%	1.1	25.1%	16.5%	8.6%	3.0%	5.07	4.72	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	212	139	25	0%	1.1	25.1%	16.5%	8.6%	3.0%	5.07	4.72	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		69	33	175	789	179	177	17	48%	2.5	22.6%	22.5%	0.2%	2.2%	4.42	5.22	-4.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		79	38	200	902	204	203	20	48%	2.5	22.6%	22.5%	0.2%	2.2%	4.42	5.22	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Birchard (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.39	25.5%	20.0%	2.8%	—	5.00	25.4%	8.7%	374	-0.39	—	—	—
Eric Cerantola R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	24	SW	4.65	25.7%	16.6%	2.9%	.245	3.74	26.2%	15.9%	100	-0.91	3.37	270	75
Austin Vernon R 2023 · 5.75 FIP	24	SW	5.75	22.1%	16.8%	4.3%	.325	3.68	23.3%	10.0%	100	-2.07	3.37	261	75
Cole McDonald R 2022 · 5.07 FIP	25	SW	5.07	26.5%	19.8%	3.1%	.403	3.87	23.6%	11.6%	93	-1.20	2.81	153	71
Nick Hull R 2024 · 4.62 FIP	24	SW	4.62	19.0%	12.2%	2.9%	.296	5.00	16.8%	6.2%	111	+0.38	4.26	292	71
Richard Guasch R 2022 · 4.41 FIP	24	SW	4.41	22.3%	16.2%	2.1%	.287	3.24	23.8%	11.8%	72	-1.17	2.94	316	71
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.34	19.4%	10.8%	193	+0.10	3.88	257	69
Tanner Burns R 2023 · 5.27 FIP	24	SW	5.27	19.4%	12.5%	4.0%	.257	4.95	18.3%	5.2%	131	-0.32	4.34	382	68
Dennis Sarfate R 2008 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.0%	16.7%	2.2%	.263	4.81	19.8%	5.9%	23	+0.39	4.42	103	68
Peyton Pallette R 2024 · 4.38 FIP	23	SW	4.38	20.7%	10.9%	3.0%	.309	3.59	25.9%	13.5%	119	-0.79	3.54	273	67
Grant Ford R 2021 · 5.78 FIP	23	SW	5.78	20.1%	13.2%	4.9%	.300	4.61	19.0%	4.5%	112	-1.17	3.83	188	67
Gabriel Ponce R 2023 · 4.59 FIP	24	SU	4.59	24.1%	14.9%	3.0%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	161	67
Will Bednar R 2024 · 6.40 FIP	24	SW	6.40	23.8%	23.1%	4.3%	.240	3.83	25.5%	9.4%	115	-2.57	3.38	202	66
Austin Schulfer R 2019 · 4.44 FIP	23	SW	4.44	22.1%	13.1%	2.8%	.271	3.73	19.3%	9.3%	166	-0.71	3.22	434	65
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	65
Austin Bergner R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	24	SW	4.99	24.0%	10.9%	4.6%	.277	4.87	21.6%	10.0%	274	-0.12	4.06	464	65
Kyle Nicolas R 2023 · 4.61 FIP	24	SP-	4.61	23.7%	11.5%	3.7%	.325	3.67	23.2%	9.7%	176	-0.94	3.25	464	65
Mike Shawaryn R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	24	SW	5.25	19.7%	13.3%	3.9%	.279	4.69	23.9%	-4.6%	12	-0.56	3.51	406	65
Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	21.0%	13.2%	2.9%	.341	4.74	15.7%	4.0%	343	+0.13	3.65	492	65
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	65
Wilian Bormie R 2024 · 4.86 FIP	23	SW	4.86	21.1%	14.7%	3.1%	.288	3.65	24.6%	11.2%	122	-1.21	3.51	226	64

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.2	120	25.2%	17.1%	1.14	5.12
Roy Parmelee ('29-'39, 4 WAR*)	5.6	124	24.0%*	12.7%*	1.20*	4.75*
Ferdie Schupp ('13-'22, 4 WAR*)	5.3	132	27.9%*	13.2%*	1.25*	4.83*
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*
Tommy Byrne ('43-'57, 6 WAR*)	6.8	124	23.8%*	13.6%*	0.98*	4.39*
Tony Saunders ('99)	1.7	115	19.7%	13.2%	0.86	4.56
Jason Bere ('03)	5.6	123	18.4%	12.6%	1.17	5.14