Jalen Hairston

3B Daytona Tortugas

Age 23 L/R 6'2" / 195 lbs A HR +16%BB +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1653ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	21	ROKCIN	124	.214/.282/.304	2	7	1	—	.138/.194/.190
2026	22	A/ROKCIN	283	.315/.430/.547	11	5	106	—	.249/.341/.428
2027PROJMLE	23	MLBCIN	393	.214/.292/.344	9	7	80	0.2
2028PROJ30% MLB	24	MLBCIN	61	.219/.297/.357	2	1	83	0.0
2029PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBCIN	118	.221/.299/.361	3	2	84	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

Max EV61

Chase%59

Z-Con%59

K%58

Whiff%55

BB%53

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.1, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 94%

CompsDarrien Miller (age 23) · Trey Hair (age 23) · Matthew Acosta (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 169 proj PA

wRC+†80

AVG/OBP/SLG.212 / .290 / .341

PA169

HR4

K%27

BB%9

ISO130

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 38 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT38

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE56

scouting grade only

SPEED54

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	21	ROK	ACL Reds	—	124	112	24	4	0	2	10	30	1	7	0	214	282	304	586	89	275	24	8	269	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	244	199	63	19	1	7	36	52	5	5	3	317	433	528	961	211	392	21	15	418	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	ROK	ACL Reds	—	39	33	10	0	0	4	5	9	1	0	2	303	410	667	1.077	364	300	23	13	461	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	21	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	—	124	116	16	3	0	1	7	43	1	7	0	138	194	190	383	52	199	35	6	169	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	244	210	54	15	1	6	25	71	5	5	3	257	350	424	774	167	334	29	10	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	—	39	35	7	0	0	3	3	13	1	0	2	200	282	457	739	257	229	33	8	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	—	124	116	16	3	0	1	7	43	1	7	0	138	194	190	383	52	208	35	6	169	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	—	124	112	24	4	0	2	10	30	1	7	0	214	282	304	586	89	275	24	8	269	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	283	245	60	15	1	8	28	84	6	5	5	245	337	412	749	167	333	30	10	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	283	232	73	19	1	11	41	61	6	5	5	315	430	547	978	233	380	22	14	424	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	—	124	115	16	3	0	1	7	43	1	7	0	139	194	191	385	52	199	35	6	169	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	283	247	60	15	1	8	28	84	6	5	5	243	337	409	746	166	320	30	10	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	21	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	—	124	115	16	3	0	1	7	43	1	7	0	139	194	191	385	52	199	35	6	169	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	283	247	60	15	1	8	28	84	6	5	5	243	337	409	746	166	320	30	10	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	CIN	0%	393	351	75	15	2	9	34	108	5	7	2	214	292	344	636	130	279	27	9	287	80	-9	+1	+0	+1	+9	0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	CIN	30%	203	181	40	8	1	5	18	55	2	4	1	217	295	350	645	133	280	27	9	290	83	-4	+0	+0	+1	+4	0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	CIN	44%	267	239	51	10	1	6	23	71	3	5	2	219	297	353	650	135	281	27	9	293	84	-5	+0	+0	+1	+6	0.2
2030	26	MLB MLE	CIN	51%	316	281	63	12	2	8	28	84	4	6	2	220	298	356	653	136	281	27	9	294	85	-6	+0	+0	+1	+7	0.3
2031	27	MLB MLE	CIN	52%	340	303	67	13	2	8	30	90	4	7	2	220	298	356	653	136	281	26	9	294	85	-6	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.3
2032	28	MLB MLE	CIN	53%	350	312	68	13	2	8	31	93	4	6	2	219	297	353	650	134	280	27	9	293	84	-7	+0	-1	+1	+8	0.2
2033	29	MLB MLE	CIN	53%	348	311	68	13	2	8	30	93	4	6	2	217	294	347	641	130	279	27	9	289	82	-8	+0	-1	+1	+8	0.0
2034	30	MLB MLE	CIN	52%	341	306	65	13	1	8	29	92	3	6	3	213	290	339	629	125	276	27	9	284	78	-9	+0	-2	+1	+7	-0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	CIN	30%	61	55	12	2	0	2	5	16	1	1	0	219	297	357	654	138	281	26	8	294	83	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	CIN	44%	118	106	23	4	1	3	10	32	1	2	1	221	299	361	660	141	282	27	8	296	84	-2	+0	+0	+0	+3	0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	CIN	51%	160	143	32	6	1	4	14	42	2	3	1	222	300	364	664	142	282	26	9	298	85	-3	+0	+0	+1	+3	0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	CIN	52%	178	158	36	7	1	5	16	47	2	4	1	222	300	364	664	142	282	26	9	298	85	-3	+0	+0	+1	+4	0.2
2032	28	MLB CTX	CIN	53%	187	167	37	7	1	5	16	49	2	3	1	221	299	362	660	140	281	26	9	296	84	-4	+0	-0	+1	+4	0.1
2033	29	MLB CTX	CIN	53%	183	163	37	7	1	5	16	49	2	3	1	219	296	355	650	136	280	27	9	292	82	-4	+0	-1	+1	+4	0.0
2034	30	MLB CTX	CIN	52%	178	159	35	7	1	4	15	48	2	3	1	215	292	346	638	131	277	27	8	287	78	-5	+0	-1	+1	+4	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1065	951	212	40	6	28	92	283	12	19	6	223	300	366	665	143	285	27	9	294	81	-22	+1	-2	+4	+23	0.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	580	129	24	4	17	56	173	7	12	4	222	298	366	664	143	284	27	9	294	81	-13	+1	-1	+2	+14	0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	2741	2444	530	106	13	64	239	751	33	55	20	217	295	349	645	133	283	27	9	289	81	-48	+3	-4	+8	+51	0.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	580	125	25	3	15	57	178	8	13	5	216	295	347	642	131	281	27	9	289	81	-13	+1	-1	+2	+14	0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ADaytona Tortugas · 244 PAwOBA .412 → .327 (−86)K% 21.3% → 29.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.31%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	28.98%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.75%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	—	10.18%
HBP% /PA	2.05%	—	×0.780	—	—	1.60%
Singles /BIP	24.49%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.968	—	21.80%
Doubles /BIP	12.93%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.968	—	10.38%
Triples /BIP	0.68%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.968	—	0.60%
Home runs /BIP	4.76%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	—	3.81%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.

Result: wOBA .412 → .327; ISO .211 → .167; BABIP .392 → .334. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKACL Reds · 39 PAwOBA .448 → .312 (−135)K% 23.1% → 33.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.08%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	33.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.82%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×0.975	7.75%
HBP% /PA	2.56%	—	×0.720	—	×0.975	1.80%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷1.000	×0.820	—	×0.975	19.99%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.975	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.975	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	16.67%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.975	12.68%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .448 → .312; ISO .364 → .257; BABIP .300 → .229. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Reds · 124 PAwOBA .262 → .169 (−93)K% 24.2% → 34.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.19%	÷1.010	×1.440	—	—	34.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.06%	÷0.931	×0.620	—	×0.985	5.29%
HBP% /PA	0.81%	—	×0.720	—	×0.985	0.57%
Singles /BIP	21.95%	÷1.039	×0.820	×0.950	×0.985	16.21%
Doubles /BIP	4.88%	÷0.963	×0.720	×0.950	×0.985	3.41%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.720	×0.950	×0.985	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.44%	÷1.252	×0.780	—	×0.985	1.50%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 150, 1B 108, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 102, BB 86 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .262 → .169; ISO .089 → .052; BABIP .275 → .199. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sean Rodríguezlast yr '19 career totals — 11 seasons, 2,871 PA	4.3	2,871	79	42	226	302	380	+10	+16	8.1	8.5
/162	664	18	10	+2.3	+3.7	1.9	pk7: 9
#2Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Luis Rivera'86-'98 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,453 PA	3.7	2,453	28	20	232*	291*	357*	+24	+5	1.2	2.3
/162	664	8	5	+6.4	+1.4	0.3	pk7: 3
#4Scott Leius'90-'99 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,727 PA	2.6	1,727	28	16	237*	306*	358*	+5	+5	1.5	2.1
/162	664	11	6	+2.0	+1.9	0.6	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	1.9	1,233	29	23	218	293	351	+4	+2	1.5	1.4
/162	664	16	12	+2.4	+1.1	0.8	pk7: 1
#5Doug Strange'89-'98 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,067 PA	3.1	2,067	31	14	225*	286*	340*	+5	-0	-1.5	0.0
/162	664	10	4	+1.6	-0.1	-0.5	pk7: 1
#6Abraham Torolast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,561 PA	2.4	1,561	39	16	220	282	351	-1	-8	-0.5	-0.5
/162	664	17	7	-0.2	-3.2	-0.2	pk7: -0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jalen Hairston (OGILVIE)	23	33→38	40→45	49→54	56	212/290/341	128	279	4	3	27%	9%	80	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Darrien Miller 2024 · A	23	39→42	44→45	48→45	47	194/289/310	116	258	12	6	28%	9%	74	-0.6	192/313/294	102	262	8	5	27%	11%	80	-0.2	179/320/285	107	245	9	4	27%	12%	79	-0.1
✕Trey Hair 2018 · A	23	43	48→55	51→45	44	217/286/366	149	280	15	6	27%	7%	84	+0.2	225/285/338	113	297	8	7	26%	6%	76	-0.4	215/274/384	169	274	21	5	29%	5%	81	-0.0
✕Matthew Acosta 2022 · A	24	44	43→45	53→50	47	215/288/332	117	296	10	9	29%	9%	76	-0.4	204/270/309	105	294	10	13	32%	8%	65	-1.2	179/248/270	91	259	9	16	33%	8%	46	-1.6
✕Zack Short 2018 · A	23	42→39	45→50	48→45	53	209/300/336	128	267	12	11	25%	10%	82	+0.0	201/292/339	138	285	13	8	31%	10%	80	-0.1	178/280/321	143	246	16	6	32%	11%	70	-0.6
✕Matt Cogen 2019 · A	23	46	47→55	54→40	46	229/290/368	139	282	13	5	24%	7%	85	+0.2	203/264/287	84	285	6	5	29%	7%	57	-1.8	160/223/197	36	238	0	2	30%	7%	19	-1.4
✕Austin Wells 2022 · A	23	43→44	48→55	56→50	47	212/302/359	147	307	15	12	34%	10%	88	+0.5	219/297/382	163	280	19	10	28%	9%	92	+0.7	215/296/383	167	260	20	8	25%	9%	91	+0.5
✕Anthony Seigler 2023 · A	24	39→40	42→45	46→55	54	193/293/304	111	262	9	11	28%	12%	73	-0.6	198/296/310	112	251	10	20	23%	12%	75	-0.5	221/312/347	126	270	10	25	21%	11%	87	+0.2
✕Jeferson Morales 2022 · A	23	41→47	47→45	48→50	48	209/292/350	141	261	14	9	25%	8%	83	+0.1	206/282/335	129	268	13	9	27%	7%	76	-0.4	222/297/349	127	274	11	8	22%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Trey Sweeney 2022 · A	22	44→45	50	53→55	46	221/292/385	164	297	17	9	31%	9%	90	+0.6	211/284/353	142	277	15	19	28%	8%	80	-0.1	219/291/353	133	286	15	17	27%	8%	81	-0.1
✕Parker Meadows 2023 · AA	23	42→48	48→55	52→55	44	215/274/360	145	274	16	12	28%	7%	78	-0.3	228/295/388	160	293	16	20	27%	8%	92	+0.7	227/300/392	165	291	17	22	27%	9%	94	+0.7
✕Chris Meyers 2023 · A	24	42→46	44→50	51→40	43	211/270/330	119	277	11	9	28%	7%	69	-0.9	228/285/369	141	298	16	5	28%	6%	84	+0.2	226/286/369	143	292	17	3	28%	6%	81	-0.0
✕Imanol Vargas 2021 · A	23	42→43	44→50	46→45	47	204/287/322	118	294	12	8	32%	10%	74	-0.5	206/286/361	155	328	19	4	39%	10%	83	+0.1	198/285/355	157	311	19	2	39%	10%	79	-0.2
✕Jose Brizuela 2016 · A	23	41→39	44→50	50→45	45	206/271/326	120	274	11	7	28%	8%	69	-0.9	208/265/331	123	293	14	5	32%	7%	68	-1.0	187/241/315	128	257	17	1	34%	6%	53	-0.9
✕Eddinson Paulino 2024 · A	22	42	46→50	54→50	43	210/273/349	139	282	12	17	29%	7%	75	-0.5	202/261/322	120	278	12	13	30%	6%	64	-1.3	186/244/297	111	257	12	11	31%	6%	49	-1.3
✕Jacob Wetzel 2023 · A	23	39→34	43→45	50	47	194/280/301	107	268	12	10	30%	9%	68	-1.0	192/268/302	110	281	9	13	32%	9%	63	-1.4	180/256/297	117	269	7	16	33%	9%	55	-1.0
✕Brock Lundquist 2019 · A	23	45→44	47→50	48→45	42	227/293/360	133	302	15	4	29%	6%	85	+0.2	207/271/318	111	301	11	6	33%	7%	67	-1.1	184/250/279	96	278	9	6	35%	7%	49	-1.1
✕River Town 2023 · A	24	40→38	44→40	55→50	47	201/283/322	121	254	11	15	25%	8%	74	-0.6	215/303/306	91	265	8	14	20%	9%	77	-0.3	215/311/283	68	261	5	15	18%	9%	73	-0.3
✕César Salazar 2019 · A	23	43→40	48→45	49→45	39	217/279/354	138	308	17	8	34%	6%	79	-0.2	210/265/318	108	263	11	8	24%	5%	65	-1.2	206/307/310	103	242	10	6	18%	9%	79	-0.1
✕Johnny Monell 2009 · A	23	47→43	43→50	48→45	47	227/295/345	118	284	10	10	23%	7%	82	+0.0	228/285/359	131	288	13	6	24%	7%	82	-0.0	225/286/348	123	283	13	8	24%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Blake Tekotte 2010 · A	23	43→47	43→50	50→55	47	213/273/320	107	259	10	15	22%	7%	68	-1.0	222/284/369	147	288	16	21	27%	7%	84	+0.1	216/278/370	155	284	17	23	29%	7%	78	-0.2

Jalen Hairston

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps