Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23 | A | Stockton Ports | 43 | 0 | 55 | 242 | 77 | 36 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.5% | 17.6% | 6.0% | 2.2% | 5.24 | 4.54 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A | Stockton Ports | 43 | 0 | 55 | 242 | 77 | 36 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 31.8% | 14.9% | 16.9% | 2.1% | 5.24 | 3.45 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 25 | 0 | 30 | 158 | 43 | 32 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.0% | 23.3% | -2.3% | 2.4% | 8.40 | 5.58 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | OAK | 86 | 0 | 90 | 380 | 92 | 63 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.2% | 16.5% | 7.7% | 2.9% | 5.12 | 5.12 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 24.2% | 16.5% | 7.7% | 2.9% | 5.12 | 5.12 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 120 | 538 | 135 | 95 | 14 | — | — | 25.1% | 17.6% | 7.5% | 2.6% | 5.94 | 5.24 | +0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 24.2% | 16.5% | 7.7% | 2.9% | 5.12 | 4.74 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | OAK | 87 | 0 | 91 | 385 | 94 | 55 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.4% | 14.4% | 10.0% | 2.9% | 4.91 | 4.83 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | OAK | 87 | 0 | 91 | 385 | 94 | 53 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.4% | 13.8% | 10.6% | 2.9% | 4.80 | 4.76 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 85 | 0 | 90 | 379 | 92 | 51 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.3% | 13.6% | 10.7% | 3.0% | 4.78 | 4.77 | +0.4 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | OAK | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 40 | 24 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.4% | 14.4% | 10.0% | 2.9% | 4.91 | 4.83 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | OAK | 58 | 0 | 61 | 258 | 63 | 36 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.4% | 13.8% | 10.6% | 2.9% | 4.80 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 71 | 40 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.3% | 13.6% | 10.7% | 3.0% | 4.78 | 4.77 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 161 | 0 | 170 | 716 | 174 | 99 | 21 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.4% | 13.9% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 4.82 | 4.40 | +2.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 205 | 117 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.4% | 13.9% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 4.82 | 4.40 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 68 | 0 | 85 | 400 | 90 | 79 | 9 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.5% | 19.8% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 6.35 | 4.95 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 160 | 0 | 200 | 941 | 212 | 187 | 21 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.5% | 19.8% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 6.35 | 4.95 | +1.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Riley Huge (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.12 | 24.2% | 16.5% | 2.9% | — | 4.79 | 24.4% | 10.4% | 272 | -0.33 | — | — | — |
| Kade Bragg L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.40 | 23.3% | 13.0% | 3.0% | .255 | 4.15 | 23.7% | 2.3% | 45 | -0.25 | 4.15 | 112 | 84 |
| Christian Chamberlain L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.53 | 27.0% | 18.9% | 2.4% | .238 | 3.91 | 20.7% | 0.5% | 43 | -0.62 | 3.91 | 148 | 83 |
| Andrew Walling L 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.10 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 2.4% | .281 | 3.81 | 20.9% | 6.8% | 52 | -0.29 | 3.12 | 161 | 82 |
| Ty Damron L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.24 | 24.3% | 14.0% | 2.6% | .358 | 4.61 | 19.7% | 10.3% | 134 | +0.37 | 3.22 | 346 | 81 |
| Ben Harris L 2026 · 5.54 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.54 | 23.8% | 19.6% | 3.6% | .291 | 5.17 | 21.6% | -2.0% | 30 | -0.37 | 3.02 | 183 | 81 |
| Caleb Frare L 2026 · 5.53 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.53 | 22.6% | 21.3% | 3.0% | .307 | 3.04 | 28.0% | 15.6% | 80 | -2.49 | 2.26 | 237 | 80 |
| Andy Oliver L 2029 · 4.08 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.08 | 23.4% | 16.9% | 1.5% | .283 | 5.02 | 19.2% | 8.6% | 108 | +0.94 | 4.08 | 165 | 80 |
| Ty Madrigal L 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.64 | 19.3% | 15.7% | 2.2% | .329 | 5.86 | 17.6% | 2.4% | 49 | +1.22 | 4.64 | 107 | 80 |
| Caleb Wurster L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.49 | 25.0% | 16.1% | 2.7% | .241 | 10.79 | 13.9% | -5.0% | 11 | +6.30 | 3.44 | 100 | 79 |
| Jimmy Burnette L 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.63 | 25.5% | 18.2% | 2.5% | .336 | 3.66 | 20.0% | 4.1% | 59 | -0.97 | 3.06 | 158 | 79 |
| Daniel Stumpf L 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.54 | 20.8% | 11.5% | 3.2% | .268 | 3.58 | 22.5% | 15.3% | 123 | -0.96 | 1.84 | 238 | 79 |
| Seth Clark L 2026 · 5.52 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.52 | 18.9% | 16.2% | 3.6% | .267 | 4.51 | 17.7% | -2.7% | 32 | -1.01 | 4.30 | 128 | 79 |
| Keylan Killgore L 2024 · 4.30 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.30 | 20.7% | 12.7% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 161 | 79 |
| John Beller L 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.00 | 21.6% | 14.2% | 1.7% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 170 | 79 |
| Gabriel Sequeira L 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.92 | 19.3% | 13.1% | 3.3% | .294 | 3.70 | 21.4% | 10.0% | 63 | -1.22 | 2.65 | 160 | 78 |
| Kelly Secrest L 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.46 | 18.6% | 13.7% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.30 | 20.8% | 10.4% | 38 | -1.16 | 3.11 | 151 | 78 |
| Mitchell Tyranski L 2027 · 5.25 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.25 | 20.4% | 13.6% | 3.9% | .269 | 4.20 | 20.7% | 6.1% | 103 | -1.05 | 3.46 | 145 | 78 |
| Brendan Nail L 2025 · 4.74 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.74 | 23.8% | 16.4% | 2.9% | .305 | 3.95 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 87 | -0.79 | 3.67 | 165 | 77 |
| Cy Nielson L 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.57 | 20.9% | 12.7% | 2.9% | .361 | 4.55 | 19.2% | 6.2% | 40 | -0.02 | 3.01 | 201 | 77 |
| Bailey Horn L 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.69 | 24.7% | 15.6% | 3.1% | .320 | 4.57 | 22.5% | 10.5% | 163 | -0.12 | 4.13 | 265 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 90 | 24.3% | 14.6% | 1.13 | 4.90 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Ian Anderson ('22) | 3 | 91 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 0.96 | 3.97 |
| Brandon Finnegan ('18) | 3 | 80 | 19.7% | 11.6% | 1.57 | 4.19 |
| Francisco Liriano ('19) | 5 | 130 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 1.09 | 4.30 |