Carlos Medina
P
Lake Elsinore Storm
Age 21
RHP
6'0" / 200 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.8 · 2029
2026 ROS PROJECTION54 act + 38 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 99
ERA4.32
FIP4.32
K%23.0%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%14.0%
ROS IP38
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 92 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 17 | 13 | 54 | 235 | 49 | 12 | 4 | 76% | 3.2 | 15.4% | 6.0% | 9.4% | 2.2% | 4.47 | 3.77 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | SD | 8 | 8 | 38 | 160 | 37 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 4.8 | 23.0% | 9.0% | 14.0% | 3.0% | 4.32 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | SD | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.0% | 9.0% | 14.0% | 2.9% | 4.26 | 4.26 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 21 | MLB | SD | — | — | 92 | 395 | 86 | 26 | 9 | — | — | 21.7% | 6.7% | 15.0% | 2.2% | 4.41 | 4.00 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | SD | 8 | 8 | 40 | 168 | 40 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.9% | 8.6% | 15.4% | 2.9% | 4.22 | 4.15 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | SD | 8 | 8 | 41 | 175 | 43 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 5.2 | 24.6% | 8.3% | 16.4% | 2.9% | 4.11 | 4.03 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | SD | 8 | 8 | 42 | 179 | 45 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 5.3 | 25.1% | 8.1% | 17.0% | 2.9% | 4.02 | 3.96 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | SD | 7 | 7 | 43 | 181 | 46 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 6.1 | 25.4% | 8.0% | 17.4% | 2.8% | 3.96 | 3.91 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | SD | 7 | 7 | 43 | 181 | 46 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 6.1 | 25.6% | 8.0% | 17.7% | 2.8% | 3.92 | 3.89 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | SD | 7 | 7 | 42 | 179 | 46 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.6% | 8.0% | 17.6% | 2.9% | 3.92 | 3.92 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | SD | 7 | 7 | 41 | 173 | 44 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.5% | 8.2% | 17.3% | 3.0% | 3.97 | 4.01 | +0.3 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | SD | 4 | 4 | 20 | 84 | 20 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.9% | 8.6% | 15.4% | 2.8% | 4.16 | 4.09 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | SD | 6 | 6 | 30 | 127 | 31 | 10 | 4 | 100% | 5.0 | 24.6% | 8.3% | 16.4% | 2.8% | 4.05 | 3.97 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | SD | 6 | 6 | 35 | 148 | 37 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.1% | 8.1% | 17.0% | 2.8% | 3.97 | 3.91 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | SD | 6 | 6 | 38 | 160 | 41 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 6.3 | 25.4% | 8.0% | 17.4% | 2.7% | 3.91 | 3.86 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | SD | 6 | 6 | 39 | 165 | 42 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 6.5 | 25.6% | 8.0% | 17.7% | 2.7% | 3.87 | 3.84 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | SD | 6 | 6 | 39 | 165 | 42 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 6.5 | 25.6% | 8.0% | 17.6% | 2.8% | 3.86 | 3.86 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | SD | 6 | 6 | 38 | 160 | 41 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 6.3 | 25.5% | 8.2% | 17.3% | 2.9% | 3.91 | 3.95 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 42 | 42 | 240 | 1012 | 255 | 82 | 28 | 100% | 5.7 | 25.2% | 8.1% | 17.1% | 2.8% | 3.94 | 3.53 | +5.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 844 | 213 | 68 | 23 | 100% | 5.7 | 25.2% | 8.1% | 17.1% | 2.8% | 3.94 | 3.53 | +4.4 | ||
| Career | — | 17 | 13 | 54 | 235 | 36 | 14 | 5 | 76% | 3.2 | 15.4% | 6.0% | 9.4% | 2.2% | 4.47 | 3.77 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 63 | 48 | 200 | 865 | 133 | 52 | 19 | 76% | 3.2 | 15.4% | 6.0% | 9.4% | 2.2% | 4.47 | 3.77 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carlos Medina (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.32 | 23.0% | 9.0% | 3.0% | — | 4.04 | 24.6% | 16.3% | 124 | -0.28 | — | — | — |
| Chad Donato R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .333 | 3.99 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 184 | +0.14 | 2.91 | 439 | 84 |
| Connor Cooke R 2027 · 3.47 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .350 | 4.29 | 24.6% | 10.4% | 56 | +0.82 | 2.92 | 103 | 83 |
| Michael Knorr R 2028 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .312 | 5.16 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +1.13 | 4.03 | 152 | 82 |
| Gabe Bierman R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.08 | 21.3% | 11.8% | 4.2% | .277 | 4.65 | 16.2% | 4.0% | 187 | -0.43 | 4.20 | 301 | 82 |
| Caleb Sampen R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.46 | 21.7% | 8.3% | 2.1% | .358 | 3.46 | 15.2% | 6.8% | 139 | +0.00 | 3.03 | 213 | 81 |
| Sean Sullivan R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.82 | 19.9% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .298 | 4.56 | 17.0% | 8.2% | 243 | -0.26 | 4.30 | 318 | 81 |
| Hunter Gregory R 2028 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.98 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .374 | 4.64 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 188 | +0.66 | 3.18 | 234 | 81 |
| Dualvert Gutierrez R 2025 · 3.14 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.14 | 23.5% | 9.1% | 1.6% | .352 | 4.24 | 15.9% | 2.2% | 78 | +1.10 | 3.14 | 130 | 81 |
| Jared Karros R 2027 · 4.72 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.72 | 19.0% | 8.9% | 3.8% | .290 | 5.32 | 17.8% | 8.3% | 120 | +0.60 | 3.31 | 191 | 81 |
| Clarke Schmidt R 2027 · 3.53 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.53 | 23.1% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .324 | 3.23 | 21.3% | 13.1% | 108 | -0.30 | 2.76 | 537 | 80 |
| Jimmy Kingsbury R 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.00 | 21.9% | 9.8% | 2.7% | .175 | 4.15 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 168 | +0.15 | 3.59 | 307 | 80 |
| Casey Legumina R 2029 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 79 |
| Nick Fraze R 2028 · 4.68 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.68 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 4.1% | .271 | 4.64 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 162 | -0.04 | 3.81 | 278 | 79 |
| Tanner Hall R 2027 · 4.56 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.56 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 3.0% | .295 | 5.39 | 10.1% | -4.6% | 72 | +0.83 | 4.56 | 137 | 79 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2028 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.45 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .275 | 4.09 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.36 | 3.05 | 181 | 79 |
| Florencio Serrano R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.84 | 19.3% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .264 | 4.88 | 14.1% | 3.4% | 117 | +1.04 | 3.84 | 206 | 79 |
| José López R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.04 | 19.1% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .329 | 3.72 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 436 | -0.32 | 3.08 | 543 | 79 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2029 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.78 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.43 | 4.25 | 412 | 79 |
| Cody Laweryson R 2028 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.23 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 3.5% | .329 | 3.55 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 178 | -0.68 | 2.49 | 298 | 79 |
| Brandon Bailey R 2027 · 3.37 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.37 | 24.6% | 9.9% | 2.0% | .290 | 4.39 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 215 | +1.02 | 3.37 | 306 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 41 | 24.9% | 8.3% | 1.12 | 4.05 |
| Daniel Hudson ('24) | 9 | 52 | 25.5% | 8.9% | 1.13 | 3.75 |
| Trevor May ('23) | 8 | 51 | 27.6% | 8.3% | 1.18 | 3.83 |
| Ryan Tepera ('22) | 7 | 48 | 24.7% | 8.8% | 1.12 | 3.53 |
| Joakim Soria ('21) | 7 | 54 | 26.1% | 7.8% | 0.92 | 3.65 |
| Sergio Romo ('21) | 7 | 50 | 26.3% | 7.0% | 1.20 | 3.70 |
| Nick Wittgren ('23) | 8 | 41 | 21.6% | 7.0% | 1.15 | 4.04 |