Carlos Medina — OGILVIE

Carlos Medina P Lake Elsinore Storm

Age 21 RHP 6'0" / 200 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.5 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.57

FIP4.57

K%20.4%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%11.1%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$14M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Arb-1	$1M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Arb-2	$1M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.1M
2034	Arb-3	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M
Totals		$6M		$6M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	29	14	80	348	70	28	7	48%	2.8	15.1%	9.3%	5.8%	2.6%	4.59	4.42	—
YTD	21	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	29	14	80	348	70	28	7	48%	2.8	15.1%	9.3%	5.8%	2.6%	4.59	4.42	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A RAW	SD	17	13	54	235	49	12	4	76%	3.2	20.9%	5.1%	15.7%	1.7%	4.47	2.92	—
2026	21	A+ RAW	SD	9	1	21	93	17	15	3	11%	2.3	18.3%	16.1%	2.2%	3.2%	5.57	5.37	—
2026	21	AA RAW	SD	3	0	5	20	4	1	0	0%	1.7	20.0%	5.0%	15.0%	0.0%	1.80	2.04	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	SD	79	0	83	349	76	30	10	0%	1.0	21.7%	8.7%	12.9%	2.9%	4.44	4.36	+0.2
2028	23	MLB MLE	SD	82	0	86	362	81	30	10	0%	1.0	22.4%	8.3%	14.1%	2.9%	4.31	4.22	+0.3
2029	24	MLB MLE	SD	84	0	88	371	85	30	11	0%	1.0	22.9%	8.1%	14.9%	2.9%	4.21	4.14	+0.4
2030	25	MLB MLE	SD	85	0	89	375	87	30	11	0%	1.0	23.3%	7.9%	15.4%	2.9%	4.13	4.08	+0.5
2031	26	MLB MLE	SD	85	0	89	375	88	30	11	0%	1.0	23.5%	7.9%	15.6%	2.9%	4.09	4.06	+0.5
2032	27	MLB MLE	SD	83	0	88	370	87	29	11	0%	1.1	23.5%	8.0%	15.5%	2.9%	4.09	4.10	+0.5
2033	28	MLB MLE	SD	81	0	85	359	84	29	11	0%	1.0	23.4%	8.1%	15.2%	3.0%	4.15	4.18	+0.4
2034	29	MLB MLE	SD	77	0	81	343	79	29	11	0%	1.1	23.1%	8.3%	14.8%	3.1%	4.25	4.31	+0.2
2035	30	MLB MLE	SD	73	0	76	322	80	25	11	0%	1.0	24.8%	7.8%	16.9%	3.4%	4.23	4.22	+0.3
2027	22	MLB CTX	SD	39	0	41	173	37	15	5	0%	1.1	21.7%	8.7%	12.9%	3.0%	4.48	4.40	+0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	SD	59	0	62	262	59	22	8	0%	1.1	22.4%	8.3%	14.1%	3.0%	4.35	4.26	+0.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	SD	70	0	73	308	71	25	9	0%	1.0	22.9%	8.1%	14.9%	2.9%	4.25	4.18	+0.4
2030	25	MLB CTX	SD	75	0	79	334	78	26	10	0%	1.1	23.3%	7.9%	15.4%	2.9%	4.17	4.12	+0.4
2031	26	MLB CTX	SD	77	0	81	342	80	27	10	0%	1.1	23.5%	7.9%	15.6%	2.9%	4.13	4.10	+0.5
2032	27	MLB CTX	SD	77	0	81	342	80	27	10	0%	1.1	23.5%	8.0%	15.5%	3.0%	4.13	4.14	+0.4
2033	28	MLB CTX	SD	76	0	80	338	79	27	10	0%	1.1	23.4%	8.1%	15.2%	3.1%	4.19	4.22	+0.3
2034	29	MLB CTX	SD	73	0	77	325	75	27	10	0%	1.1	23.1%	8.3%	14.8%	3.2%	4.29	4.35	+0.2
2035	30	MLB CTX	SD	69	0	72	304	75	24	10	0%	1.0	24.8%	7.8%	16.9%	3.4%	4.28	4.27	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		615	0	646	2727	635	221	83	0%	1.1	23.3%	8.1%	15.2%	3.1%	4.23	3.83	+5.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	197	68	26	0%	1.1	23.3%	8.1%	15.2%	3.1%	4.23	3.83	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		29	14	80	348	53	33	9	48%	2.8	15.1%	9.3%	5.8%	2.6%	4.59	4.42	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		72	35	200	866	131	81	22	48%	2.8	15.1%	9.3%	5.8%	2.6%	4.59	4.42	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Medina (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.57	20.4%	9.3%	3.0%	—	4.24	22.3%	14.0%	256	-0.33	—	—	—
Florencio Serrano R 2021 · 3.84 FIP	21	SP-	3.84	19.3%	8.5%	2.4%	.264	4.80	14.1%	3.4%	117	+0.96	3.84	206	87
Simon Mathews R 2017 · 4.09 FIP	21	SW	4.09	17.7%	7.5%	2.8%	.326	4.42	16.0%	5.9%	167	+0.33	4.09	215	85
Wilmer Ortega R 2022 · 4.01 FIP	21	SP-	4.01	18.2%	7.9%	2.6%	.304	5.81	16.1%	1.8%	30	+1.80	3.62	158	84
Jonathan Petit R 2022 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.3%	9.1%	3.2%	.272	5.11	15.6%	2.4%	113	+0.47	2.70	189	83
Dawil Almonte R 2022 · 3.59 FIP	20	SW	3.59	17.4%	7.8%	1.8%	.271	4.54	14.7%	3.3%	97	+0.95	3.59	138	83
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	83
Luis Aguilar R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	19	SW	4.45	17.6%	10.3%	2.8%	.356	4.27	16.7%	6.7%	111	-0.18	3.51	146	82
Cole Stapler R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	22	SW	3.83	19.2%	6.0%	2.9%	.266	3.31	18.1%	13.2%	220	-0.52	3.26	255	82
Eiberson Castellano R 2022 · 3.94 FIP	21	SW	3.94	21.8%	10.3%	2.5%	.266	3.93	22.0%	12.3%	189	-0.01	3.67	383	81
Carson Rudd R 2021 · 3.39 FIP	22	SP-	3.39	25.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.351	5.24	21.6%	5.6%	193	+1.85	3.39	242	81
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	81
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.8%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	81
Nick Gallagher R 2018 · 4.26 FIP	22	SW	4.26	17.2%	7.1%	3.1%	.310	4.55	22.4%	7.1%	90	+0.29	4.10	196	81
Kobe Robinson R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	23.2%	14.3%	2.8%	.296	3.44	18.8%	4.9%	84	-1.05	2.98	107	80
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	19.8%	10.9%	189	+0.28	3.06	349	80
Geno Encina R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	21	SW	4.22	16.5%	6.8%	3.0%	.325	7.09	12.0%	2.3%	76	+2.87	4.22	200	80
Saul Gonzalez R 2021 · 3.66 FIP	21	SP-	3.66	16.1%	8.4%	1.6%	.320	3.24	19.8%	9.6%	70	-0.42	2.94	110	80
Felix Arronde R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	20	SW	4.42	20.2%	12.1%	2.7%	.275	4.98	15.8%	5.8%	344	+0.56	4.16	442	79
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	79
John Matthews R 2021 · 4.87 FIP	23	SW	4.87	18.6%	10.4%	3.7%	.351	4.75	15.5%	1.6%	145	-0.12	4.51	213	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.9	78	23.1%	8.2%	1.15	4.22
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Michael Fulmer ('23)	3.4	96	20.3%	7.6%	0.99	3.94
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98