Jordy Arias

P ACL Rangers

Age 21 RHP 5'11" / 185 lbs ROK peak 0.3 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	18	ROKTEX	7	4	24	2.22	2.32	28.7%	12.9%	—	K 19.5% · BB 16.1% · FIP 3.49
2025	19	ROKTEX	6	0	8	10.57	7.14	15.8%	26.3%	—	K 15.8% · BB 26.3% · FIP 6.54
2027PROJ	21	MLBTEX	3	3	14	4.56	4.56	23.2%	11.0%	0.1
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBTEX	2	2	10	4.40	4.32	24.1%	10.0%	0.1

Next 2 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsCarson Rudd (age 22) · Florencio Serrano (age 21) · Kobe Robinson (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.56

FIP4.56

K%23.2%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%12.2%

Proj IP14

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	16	ROK MLE	DSL TEX Blue	9	8	38	154	46	27	1	89%	4.3	20.3%	21.9%	-1.6%	0.8%	1.41	4.60	—
2022	16	ROK RAW	DSL TEX Blue	9	8	38	154	46	27	1	89%	4.3	29.9%	17.5%	12.3%	0.6%	1.41	3.15	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	13	9	24	125	26	20	3	69%	1.9	14.1%	20.0%	-5.9%	2.8%	9.62	6.00	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers Blue	13	9	24	125	26	20	3	69%	1.9	20.8%	16.0%	4.8%	2.4%	9.62	5.03	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	7	4	24	101	29	13	0	57%	3.5	19.5%	16.1%	3.4%	0.0%	2.22	3.49	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	7	4	24	101	29	13	0	57%	3.5	19.5%	16.1%	3.4%	0.0%	2.22	3.49	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	7	4	24	101	29	13	0	57%	3.5	28.7%	12.9%	15.8%	0.0%	2.22	2.32	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	6	0	8	38	6	10	1	0%	1.3	15.8%	26.3%	-10.5%	2.6%	10.57	6.54	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	6	0	8	38	6	10	1	0%	1.3	15.8%	26.3%	-10.5%	2.6%	10.57	6.54	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	6	0	8	38	6	10	1	0%	1.3	15.8%	26.3%	-10.5%	2.6%	10.57	7.14	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	TEX	3	3	14	59	14	7	2	100%	4.7	23.2%	11.0%	12.2%	3.0%	4.56	4.56	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	TEX	4	4	20	84	20	8	2	100%	5.0	24.1%	10.0%	14.1%	2.9%	4.40	4.32	+0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	TEX	2	2	10	42	10	4	1	100%	5.0	24.1%	10.0%	14.1%	2.9%	4.40	4.32	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		2	2	10	42	10	4	1	100%	4.9	24.1%	10.0%	14.1%	2.9%	4.40	3.94	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	39	200	844	203	81	20	100%	5.1	24.1%	10.0%	14.1%	2.9%	4.40	3.94	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		35	21	95	418	75	85	6	60%	2.7	17.9%	20.3%	-2.5%	1.4%	4.47	4.93	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		74	44	200	883	158	180	12	60%	2.7	17.9%	20.3%	-2.5%	1.4%	4.47	4.93	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jordy Arias (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.56	23.2%	11.0%	3.0%	—	4.32	24.1%	14.1%	20	-0.24	—	—	—
Carson Rudd R 2021 · 3.39 FIP	22	SP-	3.39	25.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.351	5.24	21.6%	5.6%	193	+1.85	3.39	242	85
Florencio Serrano R 2021 · 3.84 FIP	21	SP-	3.84	19.3%	8.5%	2.4%	.264	4.80	14.1%	3.4%	117	+0.96	3.84	206	82
Kobe Robinson R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	23.2%	14.3%	2.8%	.296	3.44	18.8%	4.9%	84	-1.05	2.98	107	81
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.9%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	80
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.33	20.2%	11.3%	189	+0.25	3.54	355	80
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	80
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	80
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	79
Eiberson Castellano R 2022 · 3.94 FIP	21	SW	3.94	21.8%	10.3%	2.5%	.266	3.93	22.0%	12.3%	189	-0.01	3.67	386	79
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	79
Jeronimo Castro R 2018 · 3.45 FIP	21	SP-	3.45	25.2%	8.2%	2.6%	.362	3.85	20.1%	7.9%	35	+0.40	3.19	158	79
Miguelangel Boadas R 2024 · 3.55 FIP	21	SP-	3.55	20.6%	11.0%	1.4%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	2.64	129	78
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	78
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.6%	11.6%	249	-0.34	4.54	318	77
Wilmer Ortega R 2022 · 4.01 FIP	21	SP-	4.01	18.2%	7.9%	2.6%	.304	5.81	16.1%	1.8%	30	+1.80	3.62	158	77
Anderson Brito R 2024 · 3.50 FIP	20	SP-	3.50	27.5%	11.9%	2.2%	.231	3.85	23.2%	7.4%	82	+0.35	3.28	135	77
Jonathan Petit R 2022 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.3%	9.1%	3.2%	.272	5.11	15.6%	2.4%	113	+0.47	2.70	189	76
Clarke Schmidt R 2018 · 3.53 FIP	22	SP	3.53	23.1%	8.5%	2.4%	.324	3.26	21.3%	13.1%	108	-0.27	2.77	537	76
Caleb Sampen R 2018 · 3.46 FIP	22	SP	3.46	21.7%	8.3%	2.1%	.358	3.49	15.2%	6.8%	139	+0.03	3.09	213	76
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	76