Josue Arias

P FCL Marlins

Age 22 LHP 6'2" / 165 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	ROKMIA	12	10	36	8.92	5.55	20.3%	22.5%	—	K 13.8% · BB 28.1% · FIP 6.86
2025	20	ROKMIA	13	0	13	8.78	6.78	13.7%	31.5%	—	K 9.3% · BB 39.4% · FIP 7.30
2027PROJ	22	MLBMIA	2	2	11	5.88	5.88	20.8%	20.0%	-0.1
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBMIA	2	2	10	5.51	5.36	21.8%	16.7%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsAdam Laskey (age 23) · Colby Langford (age 22) · Liam Sullivan (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129137vR 145

ERA5.88

FIP5.88

K%20.8%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%0.8%

Proj IP11

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 11 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	12	8	23	136	25	37	2	67%	1.9	12.5%	34.0%	-21.5%	1.6%	13.30	7.26	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	12	8	23	136	25	37	2	67%	1.9	18.4%	27.2%	-8.8%	1.5%	13.30	6.88	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	11	11	41	188	52	28	2	100%	3.8	18.8%	18.6%	0.2%	1.6%	6.53	4.73	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	11	11	41	188	52	28	2	100%	3.8	27.7%	14.9%	12.8%	1.1%	6.53	3.25	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	12	10	36	187	38	42	3	83%	3.0	13.8%	28.1%	-14.3%	2.5%	8.92	6.86	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	12	10	36	187	38	42	3	83%	3.0	13.8%	28.1%	-14.3%	2.5%	8.92	6.86	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	FCL Marlins	12	10	36	187	38	42	3	83%	3.0	20.3%	22.5%	-2.1%	1.6%	8.92	5.55	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	13	0	13	73	10	23	0	0%	1.0	9.3%	39.4%	-30.1%	0.0%	8.78	7.30	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	13	0	13	73	10	23	0	0%	1.0	9.3%	39.4%	-30.1%	0.0%	8.78	7.30	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	FCL Marlins	13	0	13	73	10	23	0	0%	1.0	13.7%	31.5%	-17.8%	0.0%	8.78	6.78	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	MIA	2	2	11	46	10	9	1	100%	5.5	20.8%	20.0%	0.8%	3.0%	5.88	5.88	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	MIA	4	4	20	84	18	14	2	100%	5.0	21.8%	16.7%	5.1%	2.9%	5.51	5.36	-0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	MIA	2	2	10	42	9	7	1	100%	5.0	21.8%	16.7%	5.1%	2.9%	5.51	5.36	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		2	2	10	42	9	7	1	100%	4.9	21.8%	16.7%	5.1%	2.9%	5.51	4.98	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	37	200	844	183	142	20	100%	5.3	21.8%	16.7%	5.1%	2.9%	5.51	4.98	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		48	29	114	584	85	162	10	60%	2.4	14.6%	27.8%	-13.3%	1.7%	8.92	6.32	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		84	51	200	1025	149	285	17	60%	2.4	14.6%	27.8%	-13.3%	1.7%	8.92	6.32	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Josue Arias (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.88	20.8%	20.0%	3.0%	—	5.36	21.8%	5.1%	20	-0.52	—	—	—
Adam Laskey L 2021 · 6.39 FIP	23	SP-	6.39	16.0%	21.0%	3.6%	.383	3.25	20.1%	10.5%	188	-3.14	3.12	310	78
Colby Langford L 2024 · 5.34 FIP	22	SW	5.34	21.6%	22.5%	2.2%	.273	6.01	22.2%	-1.1%	110	+0.67	4.92	168	77
Liam Sullivan L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP	5.78	25.7%	20.5%	4.1%	.290	5.79	20.9%	7.2%	141	+0.01	4.45	156	77
Bryce Hubbart L 2023 · 5.87 FIP	22	SW	5.87	17.0%	26.0%	1.7%	.303	5.28	17.9%	4.2%	149	-0.59	4.79	194	77
Dominic Scheffler L 2024 · 5.54 FIP	20	SP-	5.54	19.7%	28.4%	0.9%	.348	5.19	16.1%	-4.1%	82	-0.35	4.59	110	77
Jake Miller L 2023 · 5.50 FIP	22	SP-	5.50	17.2%	14.1%	3.8%	.345	3.04	22.5%	16.3%	99	-2.46	3.00	143	74
Nate Savino L 2024 · 5.85 FIP	22	SP	5.85	16.8%	18.8%	3.2%	.244	4.83	14.9%	2.0%	130	-1.02	4.26	176	73
Noah Dean L 2023 · 5.83 FIP	22	SP-	5.83	21.1%	28.1%	1.7%	.343	5.14	23.3%	4.2%	154	-0.69	4.41	217	73
Ryan Anderson L 2021 · 5.71 FIP	22	SP-	5.71	14.7%	26.1%	1.0%	.373	3.73	20.3%	11.0%	149	-1.98	2.80	214	72
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	72
Joe Adametz L 2023 · 5.89 FIP	23	SW	5.89	19.0%	15.0%	4.5%	.158	4.32	14.8%	5.5%	224	-1.57	3.66	248	72
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.60	22.3%	10.3%	152	-0.39	3.90	265	72
Luke Fox L 2024 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	21.8%	19.2%	2.8%	.284	4.16	21.4%	8.1%	125	-1.08	3.60	156	70
Develson Aria L 2023 · 6.47 FIP	22	SW	6.47	16.7%	28.6%	2.1%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	137	70
Parker Rigler L 2017 · 6.33 FIP	22	SP-	6.33	13.8%	13.3%	5.0%	.318	4.59	14.5%	4.0%	140	-1.74	4.59	192	67
Lane Ratliff L 2017 · 6.08 FIP	22	SP-	6.08	12.0%	12.8%	4.3%	.344	3.25	15.9%	7.7%	80	-2.83	2.85	109	67
Julian Smith L 2019 · 4.79 FIP	22	SW	4.79	14.5%	17.4%	1.3%	.399	5.33	17.9%	5.8%	110	+0.54	2.87	189	67
Matt Imhof L 2016 · 5.68 FIP	22	SP-	5.68	15.9%	21.3%	2.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	5.13	131	66
Victor Payano L 2015 · 6.06 FIP	22	SP-	6.06	14.8%	16.5%	3.9%	.287	4.82	20.5%	7.0%	225	-1.24	3.78	341	65
Javier Atencio L 2023 · 5.66 FIP	21	SP-	5.66	12.9%	18.4%	2.4%	.387	—	—	—	—	—	2.83	164	65