Ricardo Pena — OGILVIE

Ricardo PenaC Fort Myers Mighty Mussels

Age 21 R/R 6'0" / 180 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION86 act + 57 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†59

AVG/OBP/SLG.195 / .279 / .292

PA57

HR1

K%31

BB%9

BABIP278

ISO97

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.3	$7M	+$7M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.3	$7M	+$6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.2	$6M	+$5M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+1.0	$4M	+$4M
2035	Arb-2	$2M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.7M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$7M		$25M	+$22M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Twins	—	75	69	10	1	0	2	4	34	1	2	1	145	203	246	449	101	235	45	5	199	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK	DSL Twins	—	75	66	15	2	0	3	7	23	1	2	1	227	311	394	705	167	293	31	9	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	DSL Twins	—	88	79	17	4	0	1	4	20	4	3	1	215	287	304	591	89	271	23	5	249	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	DSL Twins	—	88	76	21	5	0	1	7	14	4	3	1	276	368	382	749	105	323	16	8	340	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	FCL Twins	—	106	94	24	6	0	1	10	32	2	1	0	255	340	351	691	96	377	30	9	308	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	FCL Twins	—	106	86	31	8	0	1	18	21	2	1	0	360	481	488	970	128	469	20	17	437	192	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A	2 teams	—	72	62	7	1	0	1	7	37	2	0	0	113	225	177	403	65	240	51	10	189	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A	2 teams	—	72	58	10	2	0	1	11	26	2	0	0	172	324	259	583	86	281	36	15	280	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	21	A	MIN	—	86	67	8	2	0	0	13	34	6	1	1	119	314	149	463	30	242	40	15	229	33	-6	-0	+0	+2	+2	-0.3
YTD	21	A	MIN	—	86	61	10	2	0	0	18	24	6	1	1	164	395	197	592	33	270	28	21	311	96	-0	-0	+0	+2	+2	0.3
ROS	21	A	MIN	0%	57	51	10	2	0	1	5	18	1	1	0	195	279	292	571	97	283	31	9	262	59	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.0
ROS	21	MLB	MIN	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		283	—	—	244	45	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	21	A	MIN	—	86	68	8	2	0	0	13	34	6	1	1	118	314	147	461	29	235	40	15	229	33	-6	-0	+0	+2	+2	-0.3
TOT	21	A	MIN	—	143	118	18	4	0	1	18	52	7	2	1	152	300	211	511	59	260	36	13	242	43	-9	+0	+0	+3	+4	-0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	MIN	34%	187	165	33	6	1	3	16	57	4	2	1	200	286	303	590	103	284	30	9	273	67	-7	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.2
2028	23	MLB	MIN	48%	304	268	56	11	1	6	27	91	6	4	1	209	296	325	620	116	286	30	9	281	73	-9	+0	+0	+5	+9	0.5
2029	24	MLB	MIN	53%	386	341	73	14	2	8	34	114	8	5	2	214	300	337	638	123	288	30	9	287	78	-10	+0	+0	+7	+11	0.9
2030	25	MLB	MIN	55%	434	383	82	15	2	10	39	127	9	5	2	214	302	342	644	128	288	29	9	291	81	-10	+0	+0	+8	+12	1.1
2031	26	MLB	MIN	56%	463	410	87	16	2	11	41	135	9	6	2	212	298	341	639	129	288	29	9	292	82	-9	+0	+0	+8	+13	1.3
2032	27	MLB	MIN	55%	475	420	90	17	2	11	43	139	9	6	2	214	301	343	644	129	288	29	9	292	82	-10	+0	+0	+8	+13	1.3
2033	28	MLB	MIN	55%	479	422	90	17	2	11	44	141	10	6	2	213	303	341	644	128	287	29	9	291	81	-10	+0	-1	+9	+14	1.2
2034	29	MLB	MIN	53%	474	418	88	16	2	11	44	140	9	5	2	211	299	337	637	127	286	30	9	289	80	-11	+0	-1	+8	+13	1.0
2035	30	MLB	MIN	53%	467	412	86	16	2	10	43	139	9	4	2	209	297	330	628	121	285	30	9	287	77	-12	+0	-2	+8	+13	0.8
2027	22	MLB	MIN	34%	64	57	11	2	0	1	6	20	1	1	0	193	281	281	562	88	284	31	9	257	55	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.0
2028	23	MLB	MIN	48%	147	130	27	5	1	3	13	44	3	2	1	208	295	331	625	123	286	30	9	266	62	-6	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.1
2029	24	MLB	MIN	53%	204	180	38	7	1	4	18	60	4	2	1	211	297	328	625	117	288	29	9	273	67	-8	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.2
2030	25	MLB	MIN	55%	238	210	44	8	1	5	21	69	5	3	1	210	297	329	625	119	288	29	9	276	70	-8	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.3
2031	26	MLB	MIN	56%	258	228	48	9	1	6	23	75	5	3	1	211	297	338	635	127	288	29	9	278	71	-8	+0	+0	+5	+7	0.4
2032	27	MLB	MIN	55%	261	230	49	9	1	6	24	76	5	3	1	213	301	339	640	126	288	29	9	278	71	-9	+0	+0	+5	+7	0.4
2033	28	MLB	MIN	55%	262	231	49	9	1	6	24	77	5	3	1	212	300	338	638	126	287	29	9	277	70	-9	+0	-0	+5	+7	0.3
2034	29	MLB	MIN	53%	253	223	47	9	1	6	23	75	5	3	1	211	299	341	640	130	286	30	9	275	69	-9	+0	-1	+5	+7	0.2
2035	30	MLB	MIN	53%	245	215	44	8	1	5	23	73	5	2	1	205	296	321	617	116	285	30	9	272	67	-9	+0	-1	+4	+7	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1932	1705	357	66	8	42	175	569	38	22	8	209	297	331	629	122	286	29	9	274	68	-69	+1	-2	+34	+55	1.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	574	120	22	3	14	59	191	13	7	3	209	298	331	629	122	285	29	9	274	68	-23	+0	-1	+12	+18	0.6
Career	—			—	4067	3594	753	142	16	87	361	1224	83	50	18	209	296	331	627	121	289	30	9	284	76	-112	+3	-4	+73	+115	7.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	574	121	23	3	14	58	196	13	8	3	211	297	334	632	124	292	30	9	284	76	-18	+0	-1	+12	+18	1.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Twins	—	75	66	15	2	3	7	23	1	2	1	227	311	394	705	167	293	31	9	313	98	-0	+0	—	—	+2	0.2
2023	18	ROK	DSL Twins	—	88	76	21	5	1	7	14	4	3	1	276	368	382	749	105	323	16	8	340	118	+2	+0	—	—	+2	0.5
2024	19	ROK	FCL Twins	—	106	86	31	8	1	18	21	2	1	0	360	481	488	970	128	469	20	17	437	192	+11	+0	—	—	+3	1.5
2025	20	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	41	40	6	2	0	0	17	0	0	0	150	150	200	350	50	250	41	0	151	-26	-6	+0	—	—	+1	-0.5
2025	20	ROK	FCL Twins	—	31	18	4	0	1	11	9	2	0	0	222	548	389	937	167	375	29	35	450	202	+4	+0	—	—	+1	0.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#3Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	10	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
	/162	664	20	1	217	311	367	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#4Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#5Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#5Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#6Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#6Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	6	2,016	44	23	212	296	336	+36	+24	4.5	4.3
	/162	664	14	8	212	296	336	+11.9	+7.9	1.5	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ricardo Pena (OGILVIE)	21	—	—	—	—	152/300/211	59	260	1	2	36%	13%	43	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Tucker Mitchell 2022 · A	21	42	40→50	51→45	39	201/261/291	91	297	7	7	33%	6%	51	-1.7	195/269/309	114	298	13	8	37%	7%	61	-1.0	180/256/293	113	258	15	7	35%	7%	49	-0.7
✕Jeferson Quero 2023 · A	20	44→42	44→50	49→45	41	219/269/335	116	284	12	9	27%	6%	66	-0.6	226/283/364	138	283	16	7	25%	7%	79	+0.3	225/289/370	145	269	18	4	23%	7%	82	+0.3
✕Tomás Nido 2015 · A	21	44	39→45	49→30	43	212/267/299	87	285	6	7	27%	6%	56	-1.3	233/264/343	110	303	11	2	26%	4%	65	-0.7	240/274/351	111	288	9	0	19%	4%	69	-0.3
✕Eddys Leonard 2021 · A	20	42→47	40→55	45→50	44	202/274/296	94	295	7	8	32%	8%	59	-1.1	228/295/379	151	303	17	5	29%	7%	89	+1.0	225/292/378	153	293	18	4	28%	6%	84	+0.6
✕Geoandry Montilla 2017 · A	21	44	41→45	45→50	46	214/281/315	101	286	8	9	27%	8%	66	-0.6	197/264/296	99	314	8	8	37%	7%	54	-1.4	131/203/233	101	238	8	7	45%	7%	11	-1.2
✕Yu Chang 2017 · A	21	40→46	45→50	49→45	37	203/253/331	128	288	12	8	33%	5%	59	-1.1	203/261/346	143	284	16	8	33%	6%	66	-0.6	215/275/364	149	282	17	4	29%	7%	75	-0.0
✕Jhostynxon Garcia 2023 · A	20	37→41	41→55	48→50	44	180/262/280	101	277	8	8	36%	9%	50	-1.8	198/258/332	134	287	14	10	34%	6%	61	-1.0	217/272/375	157	286	21	10	31%	5%	75	+0.0
✕Dusty Ryan 2006 · A	21	37→46	40→50	43→40	38	183/235/269	86	268	8	6	34%	6%	34	-2.8	200/265/307	107	312	12	4	37%	7%	57	-1.2	212/288/371	159	311	18	3	35%	9%	80	+0.2
✕Corey Joyce 2021 · A	22	45	40→45	50	40	213/269/309	96	308	8	8	32%	6%	59	-1.1	202/290/319	117	298	12	12	34%	9%	72	-0.2	214/316/327	113	306	11	14	30%	10%	82	+0.3
✕Jorge Alcantara 2013 · A	21	42	41→45	50	43	201/271/299	98	298	8	11	33%	8%	58	-1.2	193/263/287	94	294	6	14	34%	8%	51	-1.7	147/226/244	97	221	6	25	34%	8%	24	-0.9
✕Alexander Campos 2022 · A	22	43	41→40	46→45	48	206/290/308	102	278	8	6	27%	9%	69	-0.4	221/302/309	88	318	7	6	30%	9%	74	-0.1	242/332/316	74	335	8	6	27%	10%	86	+0.3
✕Jhoneiker Betancourt 2023 · A	23	42	40→55	50→40	43	203/279/294	91	279	7	6	28%	7%	60	-1.0	209/281/354	145	278	18	4	31%	7%	78	+0.2	186/269/361	175	235	26	0	33%	7%	79	+0.1
✕Agustín Ramírez 2023 · A	21	43→45	45→55	51→55	44	215/274/342	127	287	12	11	29%	7%	70	-0.3	231/293/393	162	278	19	13	24%	7%	92	+1.2	232/295/411	179	268	22	16	22%	7%	94	+1.3
✕Adrian Abreu 2012 · A	21	39	38→40	47→55	47	190/263/273	82	247	5	9	24%	8%	47	-1.9	212/292/300	88	256	8	17	19%	9%	67	-0.5	209/299/290	80	241	9	25	16%	10%	66	-0.2
✕Luis Torrens 2016 · A	20	43→47	39→55	49→30	44	205/276/287	82	282	6	6	28%	7%	56	-1.3	210/273/295	85	266	7	4	22%	7%	57	-1.2	231/286/395	164	298	21	0	29%	7%	87	+0.4
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	40	38→40	49→40	40	194/261/274	80	272	6	7	29%	6%	47	-1.9	217/294/301	84	283	8	4	25%	7%	69	-0.4	216/298/285	69	279	7	1	23%	7%	66	-0.3
✕Jakson Reetz 2017 · A	21	45→31	39→60	47→45	45	210/296/302	93	306	5	6	30%	8%	70	-0.3	199/275/297	98	295	9	5	33%	7%	59	-1.1	196/276/392	196	242	25	4	30%	7%	82	+0.3
✕Rodolfo Durán 2018 · A	20	43	41→55	46→40	39	210/252/306	96	282	8	6	28%	5%	50	-1.7	208/243/347	139	281	18	3	32%	4%	59	-1.1	225/266/386	161	276	19	3	26%	4%	75	-0.0
✕Alex Murphy 2016 · A	21	42→36	41→50	50→40	39	204/256/310	107	290	8	5	32%	6%	54	-1.4	196/253/320	124	287	13	3	35%	6%	56	-1.3	185/244/310	125	269	14	1	35%	6%	46	-1.4
✕Juan Uriarte 2019 · A	21	46	41→45	49→30	41	223/277/320	96	282	8	4	23%	5%	65	-0.7	186/228/266	80	283	6	4	35%	3%	30	-3.1	145/181/205	60	226	4	0	37%	2%	-9	-1.6