Ricardo Pena
C Fort Myers Mighty Mussels| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | ROKMIN | 106 | .360/.481/.488 | 1 | 1 | 99 | — | .269/.358/.366 |
| 2025 | 20 | A/ROKMIN | 72 | .172/.324/.259 | 1 | 0 | 17 | — | .135/.238/.208 |
| 2026 | 21 | A+/A/ROKMIN | 121 | .133/.347/.189 | 1 | 1 | 20 | — | .101/.273/.153 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBMIN | 231 | .202/.280/.297 | 3 | 3 | 65 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 23 | MLBMIN | 43 | .207/.285/.312 | 1 | 1 | 70 | 0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ46% MLB | 24 | MLBMIN | 92 | .211/.289/.324 | 2 | 1 | 74 | 0.1 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Twins | — | 75 | 66 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 23 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 227 | 311 | 394 | 705 | 167 | 293 | 31 | 9 | 313 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Twins | — | 88 | 76 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 276 | 368 | 382 | 749 | 105 | 323 | 16 | 8 | 340 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | FCL Twins | — | 106 | 86 | 31 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 360 | 481 | 488 | 970 | 128 | 469 | 20 | 17 | 437 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 41 | 40 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 150 | 150 | 200 | 350 | 50 | 250 | 41 | 0 | 151 | -45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | FCL Twins | — | 31 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 548 | 389 | 937 | 167 | 375 | 29 | 35 | 450 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 24 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 53 | 250 | 53 | 303 | 111 | 42 | 21 | 183 | -23 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2026 | 21 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 56 | 39 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 77 | 339 | 179 | 519 | 103 | 100 | 32 | 23 | 278 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK | FCL Twins | — | 41 | 32 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 415 | 281 | 696 | 31 | 381 | 27 | 15 | 342 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Twins | — | 75 | 68 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 29 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 132 | 189 | 191 | 380 | 59 | 197 | 39 | 5 | 187 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Twins | — | 88 | 78 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 167 | 253 | 205 | 458 | 38 | 213 | 19 | 6 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Twins | — | 106 | 93 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 31 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 269 | 358 | 366 | 724 | 97 | 385 | 29 | 10 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 41 | 40 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 100 | 125 | 225 | 25 | 220 | 56 | 0 | 102 | -45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Twins | — | 31 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 419 | 318 | 738 | 136 | 289 | 42 | 23 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 24 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 50 | 208 | 50 | 258 | 105 | 54 | 17 | 134 | -23 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 56 | 44 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 24 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 68 | 268 | 159 | 427 | 91 | 88 | 43 | 16 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Twins | — | 41 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 317 | 206 | 523 | 29 | 303 | 39 | 10 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Twins | — | 75 | 69 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 29 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 130 | 189 | 188 | 378 | 58 | 200 | 39 | 5 | 187 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Twins | — | 75 | 66 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 23 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 227 | 311 | 394 | 705 | 167 | 293 | 31 | 9 | 313 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Twins | — | 88 | 78 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 167 | 253 | 205 | 458 | 38 | 210 | 19 | 6 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Twins | — | 88 | 76 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 276 | 368 | 382 | 749 | 105 | 323 | 16 | 8 | 340 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Twins | — | 106 | 93 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 31 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 269 | 358 | 366 | 724 | 97 | 393 | 29 | 10 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK RAW | FCL Twins | — | 106 | 86 | 31 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 360 | 481 | 488 | 970 | 128 | 469 | 20 | 17 | 437 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 72 | 62 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 36 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 113 | 225 | 177 | 403 | 65 | 231 | 50 | 10 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 72 | 58 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 172 | 324 | 259 | 583 | 86 | 281 | 36 | 15 | 280 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 121 | 99 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 53 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 91 | 256 | 131 | 388 | 40 | 178 | 44 | 13 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 121 | 90 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 39 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 133 | 347 | 189 | 536 | 56 | 220 | 32 | 20 | 281 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Twins | — | 75 | 70 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 29 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 129 | 189 | 186 | 375 | 57 | 197 | 39 | 5 | 187 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Twins | — | 88 | 79 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 165 | 253 | 203 | 455 | 38 | 213 | 19 | 6 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Twins | — | 106 | 92 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 31 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 272 | 358 | 370 | 728 | 98 | 385 | 29 | 10 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 72 | 63 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 36 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 111 | 225 | 175 | 400 | 63 | 250 | 50 | 10 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 121 | 98 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 53 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 92 | 256 | 133 | 389 | 41 | 164 | 44 | 13 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Twins | — | 106 | 92 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 31 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 272 | 358 | 370 | 728 | 98 | 385 | 29 | 10 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 72 | 63 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 36 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 111 | 225 | 175 | 400 | 63 | 250 | 50 | 10 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 121 | 98 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 53 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 92 | 256 | 133 | 389 | 41 | 164 | 44 | 13 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | MIN | 0% | 231 | 207 | 42 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 71 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 202 | 280 | 297 | 577 | 95 | 287 | 31 | 8 | 264 | 65 | -10 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | MIN | 34% | 125 | 112 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 38 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 207 | 285 | 312 | 597 | 105 | 289 | 30 | 8 | 272 | 70 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB MLE | MIN | 46% | 199 | 177 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 59 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 211 | 289 | 324 | 612 | 113 | 290 | 30 | 9 | 278 | 74 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +4 | 0.2 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB MLE | MIN | 52% | 263 | 235 | 49 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 77 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 214 | 291 | 333 | 624 | 119 | 290 | 29 | 8 | 283 | 77 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +6 | 0.4 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB MLE | MIN | 54% | 314 | 280 | 61 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 27 | 91 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 216 | 293 | 339 | 633 | 124 | 290 | 29 | 9 | 286 | 80 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +6 | +7 | 0.5 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB MLE | MIN | 54% | 338 | 302 | 65 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 97 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 216 | 294 | 340 | 634 | 124 | 290 | 29 | 9 | 286 | 80 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +6 | +7 | 0.6 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB MLE | MIN | 54% | 350 | 313 | 67 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 30 | 101 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 214 | 292 | 335 | 627 | 121 | 289 | 29 | 9 | 284 | 78 | -9 | +0 | -1 | +6 | +8 | 0.4 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB MLE | MIN | 53% | 346 | 310 | 66 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 101 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 212 | 289 | 329 | 618 | 117 | 287 | 29 | 8 | 280 | 76 | -10 | +0 | -1 | +6 | +7 | 0.2 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB MLE | MIN | 57% | 340 | 305 | 64 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 101 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 209 | 285 | 321 | 606 | 112 | 285 | 30 | 8 | 275 | 72 | -11 | -0 | -2 | +6 | +7 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | MIN | 34% | 43 | 38 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 207 | 285 | 312 | 597 | 105 | 289 | 30 | 9 | 272 | 70 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB CTX | MIN | 46% | 92 | 83 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 27 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 211 | 289 | 324 | 613 | 113 | 290 | 29 | 9 | 278 | 74 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +2 | 0.1 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB CTX | MIN | 52% | 136 | 122 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 40 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 214 | 292 | 333 | 625 | 119 | 290 | 29 | 8 | 283 | 77 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | 0.2 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB CTX | MIN | 54% | 170 | 152 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 49 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 216 | 293 | 340 | 633 | 124 | 290 | 29 | 8 | 286 | 80 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | 0.3 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB CTX | MIN | 54% | 183 | 163 | 36 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 53 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 216 | 294 | 341 | 634 | 124 | 290 | 29 | 9 | 287 | 80 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | 0.3 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB CTX | MIN | 54% | 190 | 170 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 55 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 215 | 292 | 336 | 628 | 121 | 289 | 29 | 8 | 284 | 78 | -5 | +0 | -0 | +3 | +4 | 0.2 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB CTX | MIN | 53% | 184 | 164 | 35 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 54 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 212 | 289 | 329 | 618 | 117 | 287 | 29 | 9 | 280 | 76 | -5 | -0 | -1 | +3 | +4 | 0.1 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB CTX | MIN | 57% | 193 | 173 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 57 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 209 | 285 | 321 | 607 | 113 | 285 | 30 | 8 | 275 | 72 | -6 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +4 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1191 | 1065 | 230 | 42 | 6 | 26 | 101 | 348 | 14 | 11 | 5 | 216 | 292 | 340 | 632 | 124 | 293 | 29 | 8 | 282 | 70 | -33 | +0 | -2 | +21 | +26 | 1.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 581 | 125 | 23 | 3 | 14 | 55 | 190 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 215 | 292 | 337 | 629 | 122 | 292 | 29 | 8 | 282 | 70 | -18 | +0 | -1 | +12 | +14 | 0.7 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2811 | 2502 | 508 | 93 | 12 | 51 | 241 | 854 | 45 | 30 | 11 | 203 | 285 | 311 | 596 | 108 | 283 | 30 | 9 | 272 | 70 | -67 | +1 | -4 | +42 | +51 | 2.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 579 | 118 | 22 | 3 | 12 | 56 | 197 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 204 | 286 | 314 | 600 | 111 | 283 | 30 | 9 | 272 | 70 | -18 | +0 | -1 | +12 | +14 | 0.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 56 PAwOBA .273 → .202 (−70)K% 32.1% → 43.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.14% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 43.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 23.21% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 16.26% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.36% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 4.24% |
| Singles /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.015 | 4.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.015 | 4.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 3.87% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .273 → .202; ISO .103 → .080; BABIP .100 → .088. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ROKFCL Twins · 41 PAwOBA .334 → .231 (−103)K% 26.8% → 38.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.83% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 38.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.63% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 8.94% |
| HBP% /PA | 7.32% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 5.19% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.985 | 26.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 3.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .334 → .231; ISO .031 → .020; BABIP .381 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 24 PAwOBA .180 → .134 (−46)K% 41.7% → 52.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 41.67% | ÷1.000 | ×1.270 | — | — | 52.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 20.83% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 15.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.027 | 10.50% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .180 → .134; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .111 → .105. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 41 PAwOBA .150 → .102 (−48)K% 41.5% → 56.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 41.46% | ÷0.994 | ×1.360 | — | — | 56.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷1.054 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.39% | ÷1.029 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.030 | 16.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.70% | ÷1.032 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.030 | 7.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.898 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 106, 2B 106, 3B 100, K 99, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .150 → .102; ISO .050 → .032; BABIP .250 → .220. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKFCL Twins · 31 PAwOBA .441 → .313 (−128)K% 29.0% → 41.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.03% | ÷0.998 | ×1.440 | — | — | 41.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 35.48% | ÷0.981 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 22.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.45% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 4.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.33% | ÷1.028 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.995 | 26.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.979 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.006 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 8.57% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 106, 2B 96, 3B 100, K 100, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .441 → .313; ISO .167 → .138; BABIP .375 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKFCL Twins · 106 PAwOBA .426 → .315 (−112)K% 19.8% → 29.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.81% | ÷0.974 | ×1.440 | — | — | 29.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.98% | ÷1.046 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 10.14% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.89% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 1.37% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.85% | ÷1.036 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 28.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.31% | ÷0.971 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 9.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.54% | ÷0.890 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 1.36% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 107, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 95, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .426 → .315; ISO .128 → .100; BABIP .469 → .385. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 DSLDSL Twins · 88 PAwOBA .335 → .225 (−110)K% 15.9% → 19.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.91% | ÷0.999 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.95% | ÷0.989 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 5.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.55% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 3.21% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.19% | ÷1.021 | ×0.680 | ×1.011 | ×1.008 | 16.42% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.06% | ÷0.966 | ×0.600 | ×1.011 | ×1.008 | 5.10% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.949 | ×0.600 | ×1.011 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.61% | ÷1.003 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.76% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 104, 2B 93, 3B 90, K 100, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.
Result: wOBA .335 → .225; ISO .105 → .061; BABIP .323 → .213. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL Twins · 75 PAwOBA .309 → .187 (−122)K% 30.7% → 38.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.67% | ÷0.981 | ×1.220 | — | — | 38.13% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.33% | ÷1.116 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 5.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.33% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 0.95% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.26% | ÷0.974 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.022 | 16.61% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.65% | ÷0.974 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.022 | 2.93% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.013 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.98% | ÷1.032 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 3.25% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 95, 2B 95, 3B 103, K 96, BB 123 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .309 → .187; ISO .167 → .079; BABIP .293 → .197. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).