Cesar Lares
P
Fort Myers Mighty Mussels
+0.6
WAR
Age 23
LHP
6'0" / 170 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 1.5 · 2030
ERA4.45
FIP4.45
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.7%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%12.6%
IP81
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.5peak
2030
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | DSL Twins | 11 | 11 | 46 | 189 | 71 | 20 | 0 | 25.5% | 13.2% | 0.0% | 2.93 | 2.62 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | FCL Twins | 9 | 9 | 31 | 146 | 43 | 8 | 5 | 20.0% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 8.13 | 5.32 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 19 | 19 | 81 | 375 | 77 | 28 | 8 | 15.2% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 4.56 | 4.53 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | MIN | 15 | 15 | 81 | 342 | 74 | 31 | 10 | 21.7% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.45 | 4.45 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | MIN | 18 | 18 | 99 | 418 | 93 | 36 | 12 | 22.3% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.32 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 20 | 20 | 112 | 474 | 107 | 40 | 14 | 22.7% | 8.4% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.26 | +1.3 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 22 | 22 | 119 | 503 | 115 | 42 | 15 | 22.8% | 8.3% | 3.0% | 4.26 | 4.24 | +1.4 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 22 | 22 | 122 | 516 | 118 | 43 | 15 | 22.8% | 8.4% | 3.0% | 4.25 | 4.25 | +1.5 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 22 | 22 | 122 | 517 | 118 | 43 | 16 | 22.8% | 8.4% | 3.0% | 4.26 | 4.27 | +1.4 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 22 | 22 | 120 | 505 | 115 | 43 | 15 | 22.7% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 4.29 | 4.32 | +1.3 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 21 | 21 | 116 | 490 | 110 | 42 | 15 | 22.5% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 4.34 | 4.38 | +1.2 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 20 | 20 | 112 | 473 | 105 | 41 | 15 | 22.2% | 8.7% | 3.2% | 4.41 | 4.45 | +1.1 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | MIN | 20 | 20 | 108 | 454 | 100 | 40 | 15 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 3.3% | 4.49 | 4.54 | +0.9 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | MIN | 19 | 19 | 103 | 434 | 94 | 39 | 15 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 3.4% | 4.58 | 4.64 | +0.8 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | MIN | 18 | 18 | 98 | 412 | 88 | 38 | 14 | 21.3% | 9.2% | 3.5% | 4.68 | 4.75 | +0.6 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | MIN | 17 | 17 | 92 | 388 | 81 | 37 | 14 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.6% | 4.79 | 4.87 | +0.4 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | MIN | 16 | 16 | 86 | 363 | 74 | 35 | 13 | 20.5% | 9.7% | 3.7% | 4.92 | 5.00 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 39 | 39 | 158 | 710 | 134 | 68 | 19 | 18.9% | 9.6% | 2.7% | 4.78 | 4.18 | +2.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 49 | 200 | 899 | 170 | 86 | 24 | 18.9% | 9.6% | 2.7% | 4.78 | 4.18 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cesar Lares (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.45 | 21.7% | 9.1% | 3.0% | — | 4.27 | 22.6% | 14.2% | 330 | -0.18 | — | — | — |
| A.J. Block L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.73 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .262 | 5.75 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.02 | 3.65 | 203 | 90 |
| Robby Ahlstrom L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.53 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .349 | 4.13 | 22.0% | 8.2% | 175 | -0.40 | 3.93 | 264 | 90 |
| Brian Holmes L 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .333 | 4.77 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 104 | +0.46 | 3.58 | 205 | 90 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2027 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.62 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .263 | 4.28 | 21.0% | 9.5% | 219 | -0.34 | 2.32 | 304 | 90 |
| Greg Farone L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.30 | 20.3% | 10.4% | 2.9% | .301 | 3.20 | 24.3% | 17.7% | 12 | -1.10 | 3.20 | 117 | 89 |
| Hunter Owen L 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.14 | 21.0% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.14 | 197 | 89 |
| Hayden Wynja L 2027 · 4.73 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.73 | 20.5% | 10.5% | 3.7% | .315 | 4.79 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 56 | +0.06 | 4.73 | 154 | 89 |
| Will Johnston L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.96 | 24.8% | 11.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 4.18 | 23.6% | 9.9% | 70 | +0.22 | 3.96 | 162 | 88 |
| Anthony Veneziano L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.27 | 24.9% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .298 | 5.02 | 18.7% | 8.0% | 358 | +0.75 | 4.27 | 501 | 88 |
| Pete Hansen L 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.18 | 20.1% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .283 | 3.80 | 17.8% | 10.1% | 266 | -0.38 | 3.75 | 378 | 88 |
| James Reeves L 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.34 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 1.8% | .237 | 3.30 | 23.0% | 13.1% | 146 | -0.04 | 2.02 | 280 | 88 |
| Hayden Mullins L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 23.4% | 12.4% | 3.1% | .288 | 3.85 | 24.0% | 10.3% | 102 | -0.55 | 3.85 | 191 | 87 |
| Drew Parrish L 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.45 | 24.1% | 7.9% | 2.5% | .261 | 5.90 | 16.8% | 6.5% | 354 | +2.45 | 3.45 | 522 | 87 |
| Lucas Gordon L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 3.0% | .269 | 8.07 | 11.6% | 1.8% | 13 | +3.67 | 4.40 | 233 | 86 |
| Jonathan Santucci L 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.63 | 22.6% | 9.6% | 2.2% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 118 | 86 |
| Dalton Sawyer L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.07 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 160 | 86 |
| Will Dion L 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.39 | 22.3% | 8.4% | 2.0% | .289 | 4.52 | 19.6% | 9.6% | 216 | +1.13 | 3.39 | 448 | 86 |
| Jackson Kent L 2025 · 4.40 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.40 | 20.2% | 8.5% | 3.5% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 123 | 85 |
| Cole Ragans L 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.12 | 20.2% | 11.2% | 4.2% | .296 | 3.32 | 26.8% | 17.4% | 445 | -1.80 | 2.44 | 604 | 84 |
| David Parkinson L 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.69 | 19.6% | 8.8% | 2.1% | .303 | 5.45 | 16.0% | 8.2% | 78 | +1.76 | 3.06 | 517 | 84 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.4 | $13M | +$12M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +1.3 | $12M | +$11M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +1.2 | $12M | +$11M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +1.1 | $11M | +$9M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +0.9 | $5M | +$2M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $8M | $53M | +$45M | ||