Cesar Lares — OGILVIE

Cesar Lares P Cedar Rapids Kernels

Age 23 LHP 6'0" / 170 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.9 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION44 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 105114vR 122

ERA4.66

FIP4.66

K%18.5%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%9.8%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 49 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$11M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$0.9M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	11	11	46	189	71	20	0	100%	4.2	25.5%	13.2%	12.3%	0.0%	2.93	2.62	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL Twins	11	11	46	189	71	20	0	100%	4.2	37.6%	10.6%	27.0%	0.0%	2.93	1.32	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	9	9	31	146	43	8	5	100%	3.4	20.0%	6.8%	13.2%	5.2%	8.13	5.16	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	9	9	31	146	43	8	5	100%	3.4	20.0%	6.8%	13.2%	5.2%	8.13	5.16	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	9	9	31	146	43	8	5	100%	3.4	29.5%	5.5%	24.0%	3.4%	8.13	3.20	—
2024	21	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	19	19	81	375	77	28	8	100%	4.3	15.2%	8.8%	6.4%	2.9%	4.56	4.51	—
2024	21	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	19	19	81	375	77	28	8	100%	4.3	15.2%	8.8%	6.4%	2.9%	4.56	4.51	—
2024	21	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	19	19	81	375	77	28	8	100%	4.3	20.5%	7.5%	13.1%	2.1%	4.56	3.52	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	14	14	44	221	51	29	7	100%	3.2	16.9%	17.0%	-0.1%	4.5%	9.34	6.28	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	14	14	44	221	51	29	7	100%	3.2	16.9%	17.0%	-0.1%	4.5%	9.34	6.28	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	ROK RAW	MIN	2	2	7	25	8	0	0	100%	3.4	32.0%	0.0%	32.0%	0.0%	4.05	0.40	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	MIN	12	12	38	196	43	29	7	100%	3.1	21.9%	14.8%	7.1%	3.6%	10.27	5.08	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	MIN	1	1	5	22	4	2	1	100%	5.1	18.5%	8.7%	9.8%	3.0%	4.66	4.66	+0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	MIN	—	—	49	243	55	31	8	—	—	22.7%	12.7%	9.9%	3.2%	8.85	6.11	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	MIN	13	13	75	315	63	27	9	100%	5.7	19.9%	8.5%	11.4%	3.0%	4.55	4.50	+0.3
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIN	13	13	76	319	66	27	9	100%	5.8	20.7%	8.4%	12.3%	3.0%	4.47	4.42	+0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	MIN	13	13	76	319	67	27	9	100%	5.8	21.1%	8.4%	12.7%	3.0%	4.42	4.39	+0.5
2030	27	MLB MLE	MIN	12	12	74	315	66	27	9	100%	6.2	21.1%	8.5%	12.6%	3.0%	4.42	4.43	+0.4
2031	28	MLB MLE	MIN	12	12	72	305	64	26	9	100%	6.0	21.0%	8.6%	12.3%	3.1%	4.47	4.51	+0.3
2032	29	MLB MLE	MIN	12	12	69	291	60	26	10	100%	5.8	20.8%	8.9%	11.9%	3.3%	4.57	4.64	+0.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	MIN	11	11	65	274	56	25	9	100%	5.9	20.4%	9.2%	11.2%	3.5%	4.72	4.82	+0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	MIN	6	6	32	135	27	11	4	100%	5.3	19.9%	8.5%	11.4%	3.0%	4.56	4.51	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIN	9	9	50	211	44	18	6	100%	5.6	20.7%	8.4%	12.3%	3.0%	4.48	4.43	+0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	MIN	10	10	60	253	53	21	8	100%	6.0	21.1%	8.4%	12.7%	3.0%	4.43	4.40	+0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	MIN	11	11	64	270	57	23	8	100%	5.8	21.1%	8.5%	12.6%	3.0%	4.43	4.44	+0.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	MIN	11	11	64	270	57	23	8	100%	5.8	21.0%	8.6%	12.3%	3.1%	4.48	4.52	+0.3
2032	29	MLB CTX	MIN	10	10	63	266	55	24	9	100%	6.3	20.8%	8.9%	11.9%	3.3%	4.58	4.65	+0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	MIN	10	10	60	253	52	23	9	100%	6.0	20.4%	9.2%	11.2%	3.5%	4.73	4.83	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		66	66	393	1658	344	143	52	100%	6.0	20.8%	8.7%	12.1%	3.1%	4.52	4.16	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	175	73	26	100%	5.9	20.8%	8.7%	12.1%	3.1%	4.52	4.16	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		53	53	202	931	172	106	28	100%	3.8	18.5%	11.3%	7.1%	3.0%	5.78	4.65	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	52	200	920	170	104	28	100%	3.8	18.5%	11.3%	7.1%	3.0%	5.78	4.65	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cesar Lares (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.66	18.5%	8.7%	3.0%	—	4.44	20.6%	12.1%	226	-0.22	—	—	—
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.8%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	86
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	85
Russell Smith L 2022 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	16.0%	10.4%	3.8%	.272	4.64	21.2%	7.8%	107	-0.50	4.00	175	82
Hogan Harris L 2019 · 3.84 FIP	22	SP	3.84	20.5%	10.6%	2.1%	.235	3.71	27.4%	12.7%	74	-0.13	3.11	495	82
Matt Mikulski L 2022 · 4.92 FIP	23	SP-	4.92	19.4%	10.0%	4.0%	.360	6.03	16.3%	-2.8%	144	+1.11	4.92	223	81
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.7%	17.4%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	80
Kyle Twomey L 2017 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP	3.96	14.8%	7.9%	2.0%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	141	79
Ben Brecht L 2021 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	17.3%	5.5%	3.8%	.237	4.44	21.1%	17.2%	43	+0.01	4.43	118	79
Robby Ahlstrom L 2022 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	20.1%	9.0%	3.8%	.349	4.06	21.6%	8.6%	175	-0.56	3.74	330	78
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.29	30.4%	16.9%	124	-1.85	1.94	208	77
Michel Gelabert L 2019 · 4.36 FIP	22	SP	4.36	18.7%	12.1%	2.4%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	107	77
Austin Warner L 2017 · 4.01 FIP	23	SP	4.01	18.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.291	4.43	17.6%	9.4%	284	+0.42	3.81	491	76
Anthony Veneziano L 2021 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.9%	10.8%	3.5%	.298	4.97	18.2%	8.3%	358	+0.70	3.57	534	76
Evan Lee L 2021 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	24.2%	11.1%	2.5%	.333	4.49	21.0%	2.7%	52	+0.65	3.82	129	76
Rob Zastryzny L 2015 · 5.33 FIP	23	SP	5.33	13.8%	10.9%	3.7%	.345	4.28	18.5%	9.1%	268	-1.05	3.34	634	76
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	76
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	76
Pete Hansen L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP	4.18	20.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.283	3.89	17.8%	10.2%	362	-0.29	3.77	475	75
Adam Seminaris L 2022 · 3.87 FIP	23	SP	3.87	17.9%	9.4%	2.0%	.337	3.33	17.5%	9.4%	254	-0.54	3.00	577	75
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	70	20.5%	8.6%	1.19	4.53
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63