Cesar Lares
P
Cedar Rapids Kernels
Age 23
LHP
6'0" / 170 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.8 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION23 act + 57 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102111vR 120
ERA4.45
FIP4.45
K%21.7%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%12.7%
ROS IP57
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 80 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | DSL Twins | 11 | 11 | 46 | 189 | 71 | 20 | 0 | 100% | 4.2 | 25.5% | 13.2% | 12.3% | 0.0% | 2.93 | 2.62 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | DSL Twins | 11 | 11 | 46 | 189 | 71 | 20 | 0 | 100% | 4.2 | 37.6% | 10.6% | 27.0% | 0.0% | 2.93 | 1.32 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | FCL Twins | 9 | 9 | 31 | 146 | 43 | 8 | 5 | 100% | 3.4 | 20.0% | 6.8% | 13.2% | 5.8% | 8.13 | 5.46 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | FCL Twins | 9 | 9 | 31 | 146 | 43 | 8 | 5 | 100% | 3.4 | 29.5% | 5.5% | 24.0% | 3.4% | 8.13 | 3.20 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 19 | 19 | 81 | 375 | 77 | 28 | 8 | 100% | 4.3 | 15.2% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 3.0% | 4.56 | 4.58 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 19 | 19 | 81 | 375 | 77 | 28 | 8 | 100% | 4.3 | 20.5% | 7.5% | 13.1% | 2.1% | 4.56 | 3.52 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 8 | 8 | 23 | 124 | 27 | 18 | 4 | 100% | 2.9 | 14.8% | 20.9% | -6.1% | 5.1% | 12.52 | 7.27 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | MIN | 10 | 10 | 57 | 239 | 52 | 22 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 21.7% | 9.1% | 12.7% | 3.0% | 4.45 | 4.45 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.7% | 9.1% | 12.7% | 3.0% | 4.46 | 4.46 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 80 | 363 | 79 | 40 | 11 | — | — | 21.8% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 3.1% | 6.78 | 5.26 | -0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 21.7% | 9.1% | 12.7% | 3.0% | 4.46 | 4.08 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | MIN | 10 | 10 | 58 | 245 | 55 | 22 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.5% | 8.8% | 13.7% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 10 | 10 | 59 | 248 | 57 | 21 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.9% | 8.6% | 14.3% | 3.0% | 4.31 | 4.27 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 10 | 10 | 59 | 248 | 57 | 21 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.1% | 8.6% | 14.5% | 3.0% | 4.27 | 4.25 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 10 | 10 | 58 | 244 | 57 | 21 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.1% | 8.7% | 14.4% | 3.0% | 4.28 | 4.29 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | MIN | 4 | 4 | 25 | 106 | 24 | 9 | 3 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.5% | 8.8% | 13.7% | 3.0% | 4.39 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 7 | 7 | 39 | 165 | 38 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 5.6 | 22.9% | 8.6% | 14.3% | 3.0% | 4.32 | 4.28 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 8 | 8 | 47 | 198 | 46 | 17 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.1% | 8.6% | 14.5% | 3.0% | 4.28 | 4.26 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 8 | 8 | 49 | 207 | 48 | 18 | 6 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.1% | 8.7% | 14.4% | 3.0% | 4.29 | 4.30 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 27 | 27 | 160 | 677 | 155 | 59 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.0% | 8.7% | 14.3% | 3.0% | 4.31 | 3.91 | +2.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 193 | 74 | 25 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.0% | 8.7% | 14.3% | 3.0% | 4.31 | 3.91 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 47 | 47 | 181 | 834 | 153 | 94 | 26 | 100% | 3.9 | 18.3% | 11.3% | 7.1% | 3.1% | 5.77 | 4.69 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 52 | 200 | 922 | 169 | 104 | 29 | 100% | 3.9 | 18.3% | 11.3% | 7.1% | 3.1% | 5.77 | 4.69 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cesar Lares (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.45 | 21.7% | 9.1% | 3.0% | — | 4.28 | 22.8% | 14.2% | 176 | -0.17 | — | — | — |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2027 · 4.71 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.71 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 4.2% | .298 | 4.64 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 231 | -0.07 | 3.39 | 300 | 88 |
| Jake Bennett L 2025 · 3.54 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.54 | 21.2% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .339 | 3.10 | 19.0% | 12.8% | 156 | -0.44 | 2.79 | 219 | 86 |
| Anthony Veneziano L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.24 | 24.9% | 10.8% | 3.4% | .298 | 5.19 | 18.7% | 8.0% | 358 | +0.95 | 4.24 | 501 | 83 |
| Evan Lee L 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.00 | 24.2% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .333 | 4.48 | 21.0% | 2.7% | 52 | +0.48 | 3.84 | 129 | 81 |
| Hunter Barco L 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.51 | 23.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .275 | 3.79 | 22.7% | 10.5% | 150 | +0.28 | 3.51 | 212 | 81 |
| Hogan Harris L 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.73 | 20.5% | 10.6% | 1.9% | .235 | 3.64 | 27.4% | 12.7% | 74 | -0.09 | 3.14 | 473 | 81 |
| Kash Mayfield L 2024 · 4.36 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.36 | 23.3% | 11.4% | 3.3% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 109 | 81 |
| Matt Mikulski L 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.80 | 19.4% | 10.0% | 3.8% | .360 | 5.95 | 16.3% | -2.8% | 144 | +1.15 | 4.80 | 223 | 80 |
| Hunter Owen L 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.06 | 21.0% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .297 | 6.60 | 15.1% | 4.8% | 51 | +2.54 | 4.06 | 248 | 80 |
| Cole Ragans L 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.15 | 20.2% | 11.2% | 4.2% | .296 | 3.38 | 26.8% | 17.4% | 445 | -1.77 | 2.46 | 623 | 80 |
| Sam Weatherly L 2025 · 3.86 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.86 | 24.0% | 12.8% | 2.1% | .323 | 4.14 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 41 | +0.28 | 3.86 | 189 | 80 |
| Samy Natera Jr. L 2026 · 5.17 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.17 | 22.9% | 13.3% | 4.2% | .294 | 3.68 | 29.8% | 14.8% | 108 | -1.49 | 1.94 | 191 | 79 |
| Greg Farone L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.26 | 20.3% | 10.4% | 2.8% | .301 | 6.14 | 17.6% | 4.8% | 71 | +1.88 | 4.26 | 176 | 79 |
| Austin Emener L 2025 · 4.86 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.86 | 19.4% | 9.3% | 4.1% | .306 | 5.42 | 23.7% | 8.9% | 49 | +0.56 | 4.86 | 109 | 79 |
| Christian MacLeod L 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.36 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.4% | .312 | 4.46 | 21.0% | 7.7% | 184 | +0.10 | 3.84 | 249 | 78 |
| Dalton Pence L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.89 | 22.0% | 8.1% | 3.0% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 153 | 78 |
| Robby Ahlstrom L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.49 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 3.5% | .349 | 4.18 | 22.0% | 8.2% | 175 | -0.31 | 3.65 | 308 | 78 |
| Lucas Gordon L 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.60 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .269 | 5.90 | 20.7% | 8.4% | 87 | +1.30 | 4.60 | 308 | 78 |
| Hayden Mullins L 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.33 | 23.4% | 12.4% | 3.0% | .288 | 4.01 | 25.1% | 10.7% | 150 | -0.32 | 3.72 | 239 | 77 |
| Drew Parrish L 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.53 | 24.1% | 7.9% | 2.7% | .261 | 6.22 | 16.8% | 6.5% | 354 | +2.69 | 3.53 | 522 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 58 | 22.7% | 8.8% | 1.16 | 4.34 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |