Thomas Sosa

RF Chesapeake Baysox
Age 22 L/L 6'4" / 160 lbs AA HR +9% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
Overview
AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035
ETA2029MLB%2%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202419A+/A2 orgs392.230/.323/.33243041—.180/.251/.253
202520AA/A+/A/INTL3 orgs325.208/.292/.36110640—.168/.234/.279
202621AABAL446.236/.310/.40614367—.210/.267/.346
2027PROJMLE22MLBBAL4.205/.265/.3370065-0.0
2028PROJ35% MLB23MLBBAL140.213/.273/.3594273-0.4
2029PROJ47% MLB24MLBBAL207.218/.280/.3767380-0.4
Next 3 projected WAR -0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$0.2M2033Arb-2$5M2034Ext$7M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA
ISO63
Whiff%44
wOBA36
K%36
wRC+31
BB%30
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 9.3, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 80%
CompsAlexander Ovalles (age 22) · Travis Blankenhorn (age 22) · Victor Mesa Jr. (age 22)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†65
AVG/OBP/SLG.205 / .265 / .337
PA4
HR0
K%25
BB%6
BABIP274
ISO130
MLB%2%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -8.7 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-9BATRUN: -0.2 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)-0RUNFLD: -1.5 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-2FLDPOS: -2.2 runs (Positional adjustment)-2POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: -0.50-0.5WAR
0.00.51.00.00.00.00.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$8M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2029
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2034
First FA Year   2035
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M———
2032Arb-1$0.2M———
2033Arb-2$5M———
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $-5M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202217 ROKDSL BAL Orange — 160139 28503 14425 01 201297302600 101260 269 276 6 — — — — — —
202318 ROKFCL Orioles — 143124 36734 17312 54 290385492877 202360 2212 387 70 — — — — — —
202419 A+Aberdeen IronBirds — 8472 13100 11281 81 181298194492 14295 3313 245 3 — — — — — —
202419 ADelmarva Shorebirds — 308271 661824 33862 229 244330369699 125339 2811 315 51 — — — — — —
202520 AAChesapeake Baysox — 4138 6102 2111 00 158220342562 184160 275 251 17 — — — — — —
202520 A+Aberdeen IronBirds — 191167 37926 18464 32 222312407719 186265 249 319 45 — — — — — —
202520 ADelmarva Shorebirds — 4338 9001 4121 12 237326316641 79320 289 299 45 — — — — — —
202520 INTLPeoria Javelinas — 5045 8001 4150 21 178245244489 67233 308 224 38 — — — — — —
202621 AAChesapeake Baysox — 446399 9422214 381215 34 236310406716 170300 279 317 67 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202217 ROK MLEDSL BAL Orange — 160143 18301 10515 01 126209168377 42173 326 177 6 — — — — — —
202318 ROK MLEFCL Orioles — 143131 27523 10462 54 206273344616 137298 327 272 70 — — — — — —
202419 A+ MLEAberdeen IronBirds — 8476 10100 7371 81 132214145359 13251 448 173 3 — — — — — —
202419 A MLEDelmarva Shorebirds — 308280 541223 241132 229 193261282544 89304 378 244 51 — — — — — —
202520 AA MLEChesapeake Baysox — 4139 5101 1131 00 128171231402 103161 322 194 17 — — — — — —
202520 A+ MLEAberdeen IronBirds — 191173 29714 12604 32 168238289527 121218 316 235 45 — — — — — —
202520 A MLEDelmarva Shorebirds — 4339 8001 3161 12 205279282561 77303 377 234 45 — — — — — —
202621 AA MLEChesapeake Baysox — 446410 8619211 271485 34 210267346613 137289 336 267 67 — — — — — —
202217 ROK MLEDSL BAL Orange — 160143 18301 10515 01 126209168377 42183 326 177 6 — — — — — —
202217 ROK RAWDSL BAL Orange — 160139 28503 14425 01 201297302600 101260 269 276 6 — — — — — —
202318 ROK MLEFCL Orioles — 143131 27523 10462 54 206273344616 137293 327 272 70 — — — — — —
202318 ROK RAWFCL Orioles — 143124 36734 17312 54 290385492877 202360 2212 387 70 — — — — — —
202419 A MLE2 teams — 392356 651323 311503 3010 183254256509 73302 388 229 41 — — — — — —
202419 A RAW2 teams — 392343 791924 441143 3010 230323332655 102330 2911 300 41 — — — — — —
202520 A+ MLE4 teams — 325297 50928 191056 65 168233293526 125225 326 229 41 — — — — — —
202520 A+ RAW4 teams — 325288 6010210 28846 65 208292361653 153254 269 293 41 — — — — — —
202621 AA MLEChesapeake Baysox — 446410 8619211 271485 34 210267346613 137295 336 267 67 — — — — — —
202621 AA RAWChesapeake Baysox — 446399 9422214 381215 34 236310406716 170300 279 317 67 — — — — — —
202217 ROK MLEDSL BAL Orange — 160144 18301 10515 01 125209167376 42173 326 177 6 — — — — — —
202318 ROK MLEFCL Orioles — 143130 27523 10462 54 208273346619 138298 327 272 70 — — — — — —
202419 A MLE2 teams — 392355 651323 311503 3010 183254256510 73293 388 229 41 — — — — — —
202520 A+ MLE4 teams — 325297 50928 191056 65 168233293526 125223 326 229 41 — — — — — —
202621 AA MLEChesapeake Baysox — 446411 8619211 271485 34 209267345612 136289 336 267 67 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202419 A MLE2 teams — 392355 651323 311503 3010 183254256510 73293 388 229 41 — — — — — —
202520 A+ MLE4 teams — 325297 50928 191056 65 168233293526 125223 326 229 41 — — — — — —
202621 AA MLEChesapeake Baysox — 446411 8619211 271485 34 209267345612 136289 336 267 67 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202722 MLB MLEBAL 2% 556510 10321313 351686 74 202261328590 127270 306 265 65 -23 -0 -4 -6 +12 -0.5
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202722 MLB CTXBAL 2% 44 0000 010 00 205265337601 131274 250 269 65 -0 +0 -0 -0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202823 MLB MLEBAL 35% 398364 7615211 261175 63 209270350620 142272 297 277 73 -13 +0 -2 -4 +9 -1.1
202924 MLB MLEBAL 47% 445407 8617213 301285 74 214276366642 152275 297 286 80 -11 -0 -2 -5 +10 -0.8
203025 MLB MLEBAL 52% 494451 9819216 341406 74 218281376657 158276 287 292 83 -10 -0 -2 -5 +11 -0.6
203126 MLB MLEBAL 54% 512465 10220217 361446 84 220283381665 161277 287 295 86 -9 +0 -2 -5 +11 -0.5
203227 MLB MLEBAL 54% 515468 10320217 361446 75 220284380664 160277 287 295 86 -9 -1 -2 -6 +11 -0.5
203328 MLB MLEBAL 54% 511465 10120216 361445 65 218282375657 157276 287 292 84 -10 -1 -2 -5 +11 -0.8
202823 MLB CTXBAL 35% 140128 28614 9412 21 213273359633 147277 296 282 73 -4 +0 -1 -2 +3 -0.4
202924 MLB CTXBAL 47% 207189 41817 14602 32 218280376656 158279 297 291 80 -5 -0 -1 -2 +4 -0.4
203025 MLB CTXBAL 52% 256233 521019 18733 42 222284386670 164280 297 297 83 -5 +0 -1 -3 +6 -0.3
203126 MLB CTXBAL 54% 278254 5711110 19783 42 224287391679 167281 287 300 86 -5 +0 -1 -3 +6 -0.3
203227 MLB CTXBAL 54% 280255 561119 20783 42 224288390678 166281 287 300 86 -5 +0 -1 -3 +6 -0.3
203328 MLB CTXBAL 54% 277252 561119 20783 32 222286385671 163280 287 298 84 -5 -0 -1 -3 +6 -0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 14381311 29057648 10040816 2011 221285384668 162281 287 296 70 -29 -0 -6 -15 +31 -2.0
/ 162G— A+C — 650593 13226322 451847 95 223285388673 165282 287 296 70 -13 -0 -3 -7 +14 -0.9
Career— MLE — 45514150 85116821121 308138056 8851 205269343612 138273 307 272 70 -69 -2 -13 -33 +67 -5.2
/ 162G— MLE — 650593 12124317 441978 137 204269341609 137272 307 272 70 -15 -0 -3 -7 +14 -1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAChesapeake Baysox · 446 PAwOBA .310 → .267 (−43)K% 27.1% → 33.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA27.13%÷1.000×1.220——33.10%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.30%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0506.10%
HBP% /PA1.12%—×0.850—×1.0501.00%
Singles /BIP20.14%÷1.000×0.970×0.988×1.05020.26%
Doubles /BIP7.91%÷1.000×0.860×0.988×1.0507.06%
Triples /BIP0.72%÷1.000×0.950×0.988×1.0500.71%
Home runs /BIP5.04%÷1.000×0.780—×1.0504.12%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.

Result: wOBA .310 → .267; ISO .170 → .139; BABIP .300 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 191 PAwOBA .314 → .235 (−78)K% 24.1% → 31.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA24.08%÷1.013×1.310——31.16%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.42%÷0.944×0.600—×1.0426.24%
HBP% /PA2.09%—×0.770—×1.0421.68%
Singles /BIP16.53%÷0.990×0.870×0.950×1.04214.37%
Doubles /BIP7.44%÷1.010×0.780×0.950×1.0425.68%
Triples /BIP1.65%÷1.091×0.850×0.950×1.0421.27%
Home runs /BIP4.96%÷1.229×0.880—×1.0423.70%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 146, 1B 98, 2B 102, 3B 118, K 103, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .314 → .235; ISO .186 → .135; BABIP .265 → .218. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 43 PAwOBA .291 → .234 (−58)K% 27.9% → 38.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA27.91%÷0.993×1.360——38.22%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.30%÷1.007×0.690—×1.0306.57%
HBP% /PA2.33%—×0.780—×1.0301.87%
Singles /BIP30.77%÷0.998×0.920—×1.03029.22%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷0.898×0.830—×1.0300.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.904×0.910—×1.0300.00%
Home runs /BIP3.85%÷0.899×0.800—×1.0303.52%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 100, 2B 80, 3B 81, K 99, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .291 → .234; ISO .079 → .064; BABIP .320 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAChesapeake Baysox · 41 PAwOBA .244 → .194 (−49)K% 26.8% → 31.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.83%÷1.044×1.220——31.36%
BB% (unintentional) /PA4.88%÷0.987×0.700—×1.0503.63%
HBP% /PA2.44%—×0.850—×1.0502.18%
Singles /BIP11.11%÷0.957×0.970—×1.05011.83%
Doubles /BIP3.70%÷0.970×0.860—×1.0503.45%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.950—×1.0500.00%
Home runs /BIP7.41%÷1.248×0.780—×1.0504.86%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 150, 1B 91, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 109, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .244 → .194; ISO .184 → .122; BABIP .160 → .161. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 308 PAwOBA .310 → .244 (−66)K% 27.9% → 36.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA27.92%÷1.035×1.360——36.68%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.71%÷0.997×0.690—×1.0457.75%
HBP% /PA0.65%—×0.780—×1.0450.53%
Singles /BIP22.70%÷0.988×0.920×1.002×1.04522.12%
Doubles /BIP9.73%÷1.216×0.830×1.002×1.0456.95%
Triples /BIP1.08%÷0.943×0.910×1.002×1.0451.09%
Home runs /BIP2.16%÷0.952×0.800—×1.0451.90%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 98, 2B 143, 3B 89, K 107, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.

Result: wOBA .310 → .244; ISO .125 → .093; BABIP .339 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 84 PAwOBA .239 → .173 (−67)K% 33.3% → 44.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA33.33%÷0.993×1.310——43.96%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.10%÷0.947×0.600—×1.0508.71%
HBP% /PA1.19%—×0.770—×1.0500.96%
Singles /BIP27.27%÷1.048×0.870×0.977×1.05023.23%
Doubles /BIP2.27%÷0.980×0.780×0.977×1.0501.86%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.850×0.977×1.0500.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.026×0.880—×1.0500.00%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 110, 2B 96, 3B 130, K 99, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.

Result: wOBA .239 → .173; ISO .014 → .010; BABIP .295 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Orioles · 143 PAwOBA .377 → .272 (−106)K% 21.7% → 32.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.68%÷0.972×1.440——32.12%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.89%÷1.056×0.620—×1.0227.13%
HBP% /PA1.40%—×0.720—×1.0221.03%
Singles /BIP23.66%÷1.025×0.820×1.048×1.02220.28%
Doubles /BIP7.53%÷0.960×0.720×1.048×1.0226.05%
Triples /BIP3.23%÷0.989×0.720×1.048×1.0222.52%
Home runs /BIP4.30%÷1.027×0.780—×1.0223.34%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 105, 2B 92, 3B 98, K 94, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.048.

Result: wOBA .377 → .272; ISO .202 → .145; BABIP .360 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 DSLDSL BAL Orange · 160 PAwOBA .273 → .177 (−96)K% 26.2% → 32.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.25%÷0.997×1.220——32.12%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.75%÷0.988×0.700—×1.0226.34%
HBP% /PA3.12%—×0.700—×1.0222.24%
Singles /BIP20.62%÷0.997×0.680×0.993×1.02214.28%
Doubles /BIP5.15%÷1.004×0.600×0.993×1.0223.13%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.093×0.600×0.993×1.0220.00%
Home runs /BIP3.09%÷1.018×0.470—×1.0221.46%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 99, 2B 101, 3B 119, K 99, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.

Result: wOBA .273 → .177; ISO .101 → .051; BABIP .260 → .173. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .