Thomas Sosa — OGILVIE

Thomas SosaOF Chesapeake Baysox

Age 21 L/L 6'4" / 160 lbs AA HR +8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION307 act + 204 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†51

AVG/OBP/SLG.192 / .252 / .309

PA204

HR4

K%31

BB%6

BABIP265

ISO117

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 52

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER52

scouting grade only

EYE49

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

DEFENSE42

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-1	$0.2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.1M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.2M		$-0.1M	+$0.1M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL BAL Orange	—	160	144	20	3	0	2	9	61	5	0	1	139	215	201	417	62	217	38	6	187	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK	DSL BAL Orange	—	160	139	28	5	0	3	14	42	5	0	1	201	297	302	600	101	260	26	9	276	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	FCL Orioles	—	143	132	26	5	2	3	9	47	2	5	4	197	259	333	592	136	280	33	6	261	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	FCL Orioles	—	143	124	36	7	3	4	17	31	2	5	4	290	385	492	877	202	360	22	12	387	155	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	2 teams	—	392	358	62	10	2	4	29	152	3	30	10	173	241	246	487	73	284	39	7	218	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	2 teams	—	392	343	79	19	2	4	44	114	3	30	10	230	323	332	655	102	330	29	11	300	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+	4 teams	—	325	296	48	9	2	6	20	107	6	6	5	162	230	267	497	105	226	33	6	223	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+	4 teams	—	325	288	60	10	2	10	28	84	6	6	5	208	292	361	653	153	254	26	9	293	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	21	AA	BAL	—	307	284	54	13	2	7	15	99	4	2	3	190	241	324	565	134	260	32	5	247	47	-18	-1	+0	-2	+9	-1.3
YTD	21	AA	BAL	—	307	276	62	16	2	8	23	77	4	2	3	225	294	384	678	159	278	25	7	300	87	-4	-1	+0	-2	+9	0.2
ROS	21	AA	BAL	2%	204	187	36	8	1	4	12	64	3	3	2	192	252	309	561	117	263	31	6	252	51	-11	-0	-0	-1	+6	-0.8
ROS	21	MLB	BAL	2%	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						268	25	0	246	47	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.0
FULL	21	AA	BAL	—	311	288	54	13	2	7	15	100	4	2	3	188	238	319	557	132	255	32	5	247	47	-19	-1	-0	-2	+9	-1.3
TOT	21	AA	BAL	—	511	471	90	21	3	11	27	163	7	5	5	191	245	318	563	127	262	32	5	249	49	-30	-1	-0	-3	+14	-2.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	BAL	35%	512	469	96	20	3	13	32	152	6	7	5	205	264	343	608	139	268	30	6	270	65	-20	-1	-1	-3	+15	-1.1
2028	23	MLB	BAL	49%	526	481	102	21	3	15	34	151	6	8	5	212	273	362	634	150	271	29	6	282	74	-15	-0	-1	-3	+15	-0.5
2029	24	MLB	BAL	53%	530	483	104	21	3	16	36	149	6	8	5	215	278	371	649	155	273	28	7	290	80	-12	-0	-1	-3	+15	-0.2
2030	25	MLB	BAL	55%	529	482	105	21	3	17	36	147	6	8	5	218	281	380	660	162	274	28	7	294	83	-10	-0	-1	-3	+15	0.0
2031	26	MLB	BAL	56%	527	479	105	21	3	17	37	146	6	9	6	219	284	382	666	163	274	28	7	295	84	-10	-1	-1	-3	+15	0.1
2032	27	MLB	BAL	55%	527	479	104	21	3	17	37	147	6	9	6	217	282	380	662	163	273	28	7	295	84	-10	-1	-1	-3	+15	0.1
2027	22	MLB	BAL	35%	180	165	34	7	1	5	11	54	2	2	2	206	264	352	616	145	272	30	6	266	61	-8	-0	-0	-1	+5	-0.5
2028	23	MLB	BAL	49%	257	235	51	11	1	8	17	74	3	4	2	217	278	374	653	157	275	29	7	278	71	-8	+0	-1	-2	+7	-0.3
2029	24	MLB	BAL	53%	280	256	56	12	1	9	19	79	3	4	3	219	281	379	659	160	277	28	7	286	77	-7	-0	-1	-2	+8	-0.2
2030	25	MLB	BAL	55%	290	264	59	12	2	10	20	81	4	5	3	223	288	398	686	174	278	28	7	290	80	-7	-0	-1	-2	+8	-0.1
2031	26	MLB	BAL	56%	294	268	60	12	2	10	20	82	4	5	3	224	288	396	683	172	278	28	7	291	81	-6	-0	-1	-2	+8	-0.1
2032	27	MLB	BAL	55%	290	263	58	12	1	10	21	81	4	5	3	221	288	388	676	167	278	28	7	291	81	-6	-0	-1	-2	+8	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1595	1455	318	66	8	52	108	452	20	25	16	219	282	382	664	164	278	28	7	285	76	-43	-1	-3	-10	+45	-1.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	593	129	27	3	21	44	184	8	10	7	218	280	379	660	162	277	28	7	285	76	-18	-1	-1	-4	+18	-0.5
Career	—			—	4375	3990	808	160	25	114	291	1323	55	93	54	202	266	341	607	138	269	30	7	270	65	-173	-3	-7	-26	+124	-8.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	593	121	24	4	17	43	197	8	14	8	204	267	344	611	140	272	30	7	270	65	-26	-0	-1	-4	+18	-1.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL BAL Orange	—	160	139	28	5	0	3	14	42	5	0	1	201	297	302	600	101	260	26	9	276	70	-5	-0	—	—	+5	-0.1
2023	18	ROK	FCL Orioles	—	143	124	36	7	3	4	17	31	2	5	4	290	385	492	877	202	360	22	12	387	155	+9	-1	—	—	+4	1.3
2024	19	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	84	72	13	1	0	0	11	28	1	8	1	181	298	194	492	14	295	33	13	245	45	-5	+1	—	—	+2	-0.2
2024	19	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	308	271	66	18	2	4	33	86	2	22	9	244	330	369	699	125	339	28	11	315	100	-0	+1	—	—	+9	1.0
2025	20	AA	Chesapeake Baysox	—	41	38	6	1	0	2	2	11	1	0	0	158	220	342	562	184	160	27	5	251	50	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2025	20	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	191	167	37	9	2	6	18	46	4	3	2	222	312	407	719	186	265	24	9	319	102	+0	-0	—	—	+5	0.6
2025	20	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	43	38	9	0	0	1	4	12	1	1	2	237	326	316	641	79	320	28	9	299	87	-1	-1	—	—	+1	-0.0
2025	20	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	50	45	8	0	0	1	4	15	0	2	1	178	245	244	489	67	233	30	8	224	30	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
	/162	664	20	20	241	309	409	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#3John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	6	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
	/162	664	24	7	234	298	417	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#4Dayan Viciedolast yr '14 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,798 PA	5	1,798	66	2	254	298	424	-18	-29	0.3	0.3
	/162	664	24	1	254	298	424	-6.6	-10.7	0.1	pk7: 0
#5Hunter Dozierlast yr '23 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,294 PA	6	2,294	73	19	238	305	421	-23	-45	0.0	0.0
	/162	664	21	5	238	305	421	-6.5	-13.2	0.0	pk7: 0
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	1,597	49	25	216	276	373	-10	-9	-0.3	-0.0
	/162	664	20	10	216	276	373	-4.0	-3.7	-0.1	pk7: 0
#6Domonic Brownlast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,748 PA	6	1,748	54	23	246	305	405	-19	-39	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	21	9	246	305	405	-7.1	-14.7	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Thomas Sosa (OGILVIE)	21	40	52	50	49	191/245/318	127	262	11	5	32%	5%	49	-2.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Iverson Leonardo 2023 · A	21	37	44→50	49→50	39	187/256/305	118	276	12	9	35%	7%	54	-1.4	197/279/292	95	352	7	8	42%	9%	60	-1.0	146/272/221	75	359	3	4	52%	12%	39	-0.5
✕Travis Blankenhorn 2018 · A	21	40→45	45→55	55→50	40	201/267/329	128	288	12	8	33%	6%	64	-0.8	209/259/340	131	294	14	8	32%	5%	63	-0.8	208/281/368	159	278	20	6	31%	8%	77	+0.1
✕Conner Capel 2018 · A	21	40→46	46→50	49→55	42	204/258/333	129	267	13	11	28%	6%	61	-1.0	214/265/332	118	288	11	11	28%	6%	63	-0.8	213/283/334	121	267	13	19	25%	8%	68	-0.4
✕Addison Barger 2021 · A	21	41→45	39→55	49→45	44	198/267/288	90	270	6	5	28%	7%	53	-1.5	217/280/375	158	316	19	7	36%	7%	82	+0.5	220/290/392	172	269	20	6	26%	8%	86	+0.6
●Parker Meadows 2021 · A	21	40→47	42→60	46→55	43	200/256/299	99	268	10	9	28%	7%	51	-1.7	204/265/350	146	271	17	13	30%	7%	69	-0.4	226/293/417	190	275	23	21	26%	8%	95	+1.4
✕Jason Martin 2017 · A	21	42→49	45→60	49→50	43	209/267/335	126	281	12	13	29%	7%	65	-0.7	223/270/369	146	300	15	12	29%	6%	76	+0.0	220/286/421	201	269	27	8	29%	8%	94	+0.8
✕Enmanuel Valdez 2021 · A	22	39→44	42→55	46→45	39	195/247/298	103	267	10	9	30%	6%	47	-1.9	216/273/389	173	269	23	8	28%	7%	83	+0.6	220/285/398	178	263	24	8	26%	8%	87	+0.7
✕Carlos Alvarez 2009 · AAA	21	45	44→45	49→45	44	224/269/336	112	266	12	10	21%	5%	66	-0.6	229/289/345	116	293	12	12	25%	7%	77	+0.1	245/326/331	86	298	6	6	18%	9%	88	+0.3
✕Jose Manuel Orozco 2012 · AAA	21	45	42→50	46→45	39	220/262/325	105	298	10	7	29%	5%	59	-1.1	232/268/350	118	322	13	9	31%	4%	69	-0.4	222/269/361	139	311	17	7	33%	5%	72	-0.1
✕Alexander Ovalles 2023 · AA	22	44→41	46→50	46→50	44	217/282/344	127	285	13	8	28%	7%	75	-0.0	214/278/320	106	313	10	11	32%	8%	66	-0.6	179/251/225	46	304	4	15	39%	9%	26	-0.7
✕Jeremy Moore 2008 · A	21	39→49	46→55	50→55	35	198/244/329	132	288	14	13	36%	5%	54	-1.4	211/249/359	148	319	15	17	37%	4%	63	-0.8	241/276/397	156	336	15	19	32%	4%	82	+0.4
✕Yohendrick Pinango 2023 · A	21	44→52	43→50	52→50	41	221/259/327	106	273	11	9	23%	5%	59	-1.1	206/261/312	106	261	11	10	24%	7%	56	-1.3	215/285/358	143	270	16	7	26%	8%	76	+0.1
●Angelo Songco 2010 · A	21	36→46	45→55	47→40	36	189/238/315	126	264	13	4	33%	5%	48	-1.9	221/272/373	152	276	16	4	26%	6%	78	+0.2	218/270/377	159	267	18	3	26%	6%	75	+0.0
✕Danny Ortiz 2011 · A	21	38→48	46→60	52→45	36	197/235/332	135	261	14	4	30%	4%	51	-1.7	207/246/325	118	265	11	4	25%	5%	53	-1.5	226/264/410	184	264	25	2	25%	4%	84	+0.5
✕Isan Díaz 2017 · A	21	42	46→55	45	43	208/273/344	136	295	12	8	32%	8%	70	-0.3	203/271/341	138	294	15	8	34%	8%	69	-0.4	208/287/373	164	275	21	5	31%	9%	79	+0.2
✕Drew Robinson 2014 · A	22	41→40	44→55	49→50	45	201/281/320	119	294	11	8	33%	9%	68	-0.5	192/266/342	150	282	16	11	36%	9%	67	-0.5	213/286/393	179	309	20	12	36%	9%	85	+0.5
✕Imanol Vargas 2019 · A	21	42→44	40→50	45	51	200/293/295	95	288	7	9	30%	11%	67	-0.5	207/285/347	140	314	15	7	36%	9%	76	+0.1	205/290/360	154	326	18	2	39%	10%	79	+0.2
✕Shed Long Jr. 2017 · A	21	46→47	43→50	50	41	223/279/337	114	308	10	11	30%	6%	70	-0.3	233/292/376	143	318	15	11	30%	7%	86	+0.8	233/295/385	151	314	17	11	30%	7%	87	+0.6
●Felix Reyes 2022 · A	21	41→51	43→55	49→45	38	202/267/312	111	283	10	12	31%	5%	60	-1.0	204/245/317	113	258	13	7	26%	4%	51	-1.7	244/271/414	171	282	21	9	22%	3%	86	+0.5
✕Lewin Díaz 2018 · A	21	43→44	45→60	46→30	39	217/254/337	120	268	13	3	24%	4%	59	-1.1	213/247/354	141	263	16	2	25%	4%	62	-0.9	211/261/421	210	239	29	1	26%	5%	85	+0.6