Oswaldo Osorio
SS Ontario Tower Buzzers| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | ALAA | 291 | .194/.316/.279 | 2 | 1 | 30 | — | .145/.251/.204 |
| 2025 | 20 | A/ROK2 orgs | 235 | .178/.332/.272 | 5 | 7 | 21 | — | .113/.243/.163 |
| 2026 | 21 | A/ROKLAD | 321 | .245/.351/.482 | 16 | 1 | 65 | — | .178/.260/.343 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBLAD | 431 | .174/.266/.296 | 11 | 5 | 61 | -0.2 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 23 | MLBLAD | 84 | .178/.269/.307 | 2 | 1 | 65 | -0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ46% MLB | 24 | MLBLAD | 150 | .182/.273/.316 | 4 | 2 | 69 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 30
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL LAD Bautista | — | 187 | 138 | 33 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 39 | 44 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 239 | 432 | 471 | 903 | 232 | 300 | 24 | 21 | 401 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | ACL Dodgers | — | 201 | 164 | 43 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 29 | 54 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 262 | 395 | 445 | 840 | 183 | 352 | 27 | 14 | 377 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 291 | 247 | 48 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 34 | 85 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 194 | 316 | 279 | 596 | 85 | 287 | 29 | 12 | 284 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 201 | 159 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 36 | 69 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 138 | 318 | 233 | 551 | 94 | 200 | 34 | 18 | 275 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | ACL Dodgers | — | 34 | 32 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 375 | 412 | 469 | 881 | 94 | 600 | 35 | 3 | 395 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A | Ontario Tower Buzzers | — | 223 | 188 | 48 | 7 | 1 | 13 | 30 | 57 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 255 | 367 | 511 | 877 | 255 | 292 | 26 | 13 | 382 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK | ACL Dodgers | — | 98 | 86 | 19 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 29 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 221 | 316 | 419 | 735 | 198 | 296 | 30 | 10 | 328 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL LAD Bautista | — | 187 | 147 | 22 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 30 | 52 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 150 | 324 | 272 | 596 | 122 | 192 | 28 | 16 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Dodgers | — | 201 | 175 | 32 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 77 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 183 | 285 | 297 | 582 | 114 | 287 | 38 | 9 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 291 | 255 | 37 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 120 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 145 | 251 | 204 | 455 | 59 | 260 | 41 | 9 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 201 | 169 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 26 | 95 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 95 | 239 | 148 | 387 | 53 | 177 | 47 | 13 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Dodgers | — | 34 | 32 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 219 | 265 | 250 | 515 | 31 | 466 | 50 | 3 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Ontario Tower Buzzers | — | 223 | 197 | 39 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 21 | 78 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 198 | 285 | 386 | 671 | 188 | 256 | 35 | 9 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK MLE | ACL Dodgers | — | 98 | 90 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 42 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 133 | 204 | 244 | 449 | 111 | 218 | 43 | 6 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL LAD Bautista | — | 187 | 147 | 22 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 30 | 52 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 150 | 324 | 272 | 596 | 122 | 202 | 28 | 16 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL LAD Bautista | — | 187 | 138 | 33 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 39 | 44 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 239 | 432 | 471 | 903 | 232 | 300 | 24 | 21 | 401 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Dodgers | — | 201 | 175 | 32 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 77 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 183 | 285 | 297 | 582 | 114 | 295 | 38 | 9 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | ACL Dodgers | — | 201 | 164 | 43 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 29 | 54 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 262 | 395 | 445 | 840 | 183 | 352 | 27 | 14 | 377 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 291 | 255 | 37 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 120 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 145 | 251 | 204 | 455 | 59 | 269 | 41 | 9 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A RAW | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 291 | 247 | 48 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 34 | 85 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 194 | 316 | 279 | 596 | 85 | 287 | 29 | 12 | 284 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 235 | 201 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 27 | 112 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 109 | 238 | 159 | 398 | 50 | 221 | 48 | 11 | 200 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 235 | 191 | 34 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 37 | 81 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 178 | 332 | 272 | 604 | 94 | 276 | 34 | 16 | 293 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 321 | 287 | 52 | 8 | 2 | 12 | 27 | 119 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 181 | 263 | 348 | 612 | 167 | 253 | 37 | 8 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 321 | 274 | 67 | 11 | 3 | 16 | 40 | 86 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 245 | 351 | 482 | 833 | 237 | 293 | 27 | 12 | 366 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL LAD Bautista | — | 187 | 147 | 22 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 30 | 52 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 150 | 324 | 272 | 596 | 122 | 192 | 28 | 16 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Dodgers | — | 201 | 174 | 32 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 77 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 184 | 285 | 299 | 584 | 115 | 287 | 38 | 9 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 291 | 253 | 37 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 120 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 146 | 251 | 206 | 456 | 59 | 260 | 41 | 9 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 235 | 199 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 27 | 112 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 111 | 238 | 161 | 399 | 50 | 219 | 48 | 11 | 200 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 321 | 286 | 52 | 8 | 2 | 12 | 27 | 119 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 182 | 263 | 350 | 613 | 168 | 244 | 37 | 8 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 291 | 253 | 37 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 120 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 146 | 251 | 206 | 456 | 59 | 260 | 41 | 9 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 235 | 199 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 27 | 112 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 111 | 238 | 161 | 399 | 50 | 219 | 48 | 11 | 200 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 321 | 286 | 52 | 8 | 2 | 12 | 27 | 119 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 182 | 263 | 350 | 613 | 168 | 244 | 37 | 8 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | LAD | 0% | 431 | 381 | 67 | 11 | 2 | 11 | 40 | 155 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 174 | 266 | 296 | 562 | 122 | 255 | 36 | 9 | 258 | 61 | -20 | -0 | +0 | +5 | +9 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | LAD | 34% | 244 | 215 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 85 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 180 | 271 | 308 | 580 | 129 | 257 | 35 | 9 | 265 | 65 | -10 | -0 | +0 | +3 | +5 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB MLE | LAD | 46% | 326 | 287 | 53 | 9 | 1 | 9 | 31 | 111 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 185 | 275 | 318 | 593 | 133 | 260 | 34 | 10 | 270 | 69 | -12 | -0 | +0 | +3 | +7 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB MLE | LAD | 52% | 372 | 328 | 62 | 11 | 2 | 10 | 35 | 124 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 189 | 279 | 324 | 603 | 136 | 262 | 33 | 9 | 274 | 72 | -13 | -0 | +0 | +4 | +8 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB MLE | LAD | 54% | 399 | 353 | 68 | 12 | 2 | 11 | 37 | 131 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 191 | 281 | 328 | 609 | 137 | 264 | 33 | 9 | 277 | 73 | -13 | -0 | +0 | +4 | +9 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB MLE | LAD | 58% | 411 | 363 | 70 | 12 | 2 | 11 | 39 | 133 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 193 | 282 | 330 | 612 | 137 | 265 | 32 | 9 | 278 | 74 | -13 | -0 | +0 | +4 | +9 | 0.0 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB MLE | LAD | 61% | 411 | 364 | 70 | 12 | 2 | 11 | 38 | 134 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 191 | 280 | 326 | 605 | 134 | 264 | 33 | 9 | 275 | 72 | -14 | -1 | -1 | +4 | +9 | -0.2 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB MLE | LAD | 62% | 403 | 356 | 69 | 12 | 2 | 11 | 38 | 133 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 189 | 277 | 320 | 597 | 130 | 263 | 33 | 9 | 272 | 70 | -14 | -1 | -1 | +4 | +9 | -0.3 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB MLE | LAD | 63% | 393 | 348 | 64 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 36 | 131 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 186 | 274 | 312 | 586 | 126 | 261 | 33 | 9 | 267 | 67 | -15 | -1 | -2 | +4 | +9 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | LAD | 34% | 84 | 75 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 29 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 178 | 269 | 307 | 576 | 129 | 252 | 35 | 10 | 263 | 65 | -3 | -0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB CTX | LAD | 46% | 150 | 133 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 51 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 182 | 273 | 316 | 589 | 134 | 255 | 34 | 9 | 269 | 69 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB CTX | LAD | 52% | 192 | 169 | 32 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 64 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 186 | 276 | 323 | 599 | 136 | 257 | 33 | 9 | 272 | 72 | -6 | -0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB CTX | LAD | 54% | 216 | 191 | 36 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 71 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 189 | 278 | 326 | 605 | 138 | 258 | 33 | 9 | 275 | 73 | -7 | -0 | +0 | +2 | +5 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB CTX | LAD | 58% | 240 | 212 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 78 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 190 | 279 | 328 | 607 | 137 | 259 | 32 | 9 | 276 | 74 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +5 | 0.0 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB CTX | LAD | 61% | 250 | 221 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 82 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 189 | 278 | 324 | 601 | 135 | 258 | 33 | 9 | 273 | 72 | -8 | -0 | -0 | +3 | +5 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB CTX | LAD | 62% | 251 | 222 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 83 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 187 | 275 | 318 | 592 | 131 | 257 | 33 | 9 | 270 | 70 | -9 | -1 | -1 | +3 | +5 | -0.2 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB CTX | LAD | 63% | 248 | 219 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 82 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 184 | 272 | 310 | 582 | 126 | 255 | 33 | 9 | 266 | 67 | -10 | -1 | -1 | +3 | +5 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1631 | 1442 | 270 | 45 | 7 | 46 | 151 | 540 | 25 | 21 | 16 | 187 | 276 | 324 | 600 | 137 | 260 | 33 | 9 | 271 | 64 | -57 | -2 | -3 | +17 | +35 | -0.9 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 575 | 108 | 18 | 3 | 18 | 60 | 215 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 188 | 276 | 323 | 599 | 136 | 261 | 33 | 9 | 271 | 64 | -23 | -1 | -1 | +7 | +14 | -0.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4402 | 3862 | 692 | 117 | 22 | 107 | 424 | 1537 | 86 | 61 | 46 | 179 | 275 | 304 | 579 | 125 | 261 | 35 | 10 | 263 | 64 | -113 | -4 | -4 | +34 | +69 | -1.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 570 | 102 | 17 | 3 | 16 | 63 | 227 | 13 | 9 | 7 | 179 | 276 | 304 | 579 | 125 | 261 | 35 | 10 | 263 | 64 | -23 | -1 | -1 | +7 | +14 | -0.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AOntario Tower Buzzers · 223 PAwOBA .375 → .291 (−85)K% 25.6% → 34.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.56% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 34.76% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.45% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 9.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.35% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 1.07% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.61% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.980 | ×1.015 | 18.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.34% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.980 | ×1.015 | 4.41% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.980 | ×1.015 | 0.69% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.92% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 8.06% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.
Result: wOBA .375 → .291; ISO .255 → .195; BABIP .292 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ROKACL Dodgers · 98 PAwOBA .319 → .202 (−117)K% 29.6% → 42.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.59% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 42.61% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.20% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 6.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.04% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 1.45% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.54% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×0.967 | ×0.985 | 13.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.02% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.967 | ×0.985 | 4.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.51% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.967 | ×0.985 | 2.41% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 4.04% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.967.
Result: wOBA .319 → .202; ISO .198 → .123; BABIP .296 → .218. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 201 PAwOBA .269 → .195 (−75)K% 34.3% → 47.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.33% | ÷0.987 | ×1.360 | — | — | 47.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.91% | ÷0.981 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 12.97% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.99% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 2.40% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.89% | ÷1.004 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 16.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.054 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.56% | ÷1.055 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 4.34% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 101, 2B 111, 3B 130, K 97, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .269 → .195; ISO .094 → .061; BABIP .200 → .177. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKACL Dodgers · 34 PAwOBA .384 → .228 (−156)K% 35.3% → 51.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.29% | ÷0.993 | ×1.440 | — | — | 51.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.94% | ÷0.997 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 1.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.94% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 2.11% |
| Singles /BIP | 45.00% | ÷0.996 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.995 | 36.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 15.00% | ÷1.102 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 9.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.060 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.187 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 99, 2B 120, 3B 112, K 99, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .384 → .228; ISO .094 → .047; BABIP .600 → .466. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 291 PAwOBA .277 → .212 (−65)K% 29.2% → 41.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.21% | ÷0.964 | ×1.360 | — | — | 41.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.68% | ÷0.943 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 8.93% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.44% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 2.80% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.75% | ÷1.072 | ×0.920 | ×1.012 | ×1.045 | 17.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.02% | ÷0.973 | ×0.830 | ×1.012 | ×1.045 | 7.24% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.62% | ÷0.973 | ×0.910 | ×1.012 | ×1.045 | 0.61% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.23% | ÷1.072 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 0.96% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 114, 2B 95, 3B 95, K 93, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.
Result: wOBA .277 → .212; ISO .085 → .063; BABIP .287 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL Dodgers · 201 PAwOBA .370 → .262 (−107)K% 26.9% → 38.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.87% | ÷1.005 | ×1.440 | — | — | 38.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.43% | ÷0.992 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 9.22% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.48% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 2.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.45% | ÷0.965 | ×0.820 | ×0.990 | ×1.022 | 21.90% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.45% | ÷1.032 | ×0.720 | ×0.990 | ×1.022 | 3.85% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.73% | ÷0.980 | ×0.720 | ×0.990 | ×1.022 | 2.03% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.45% | ÷1.005 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 4.33% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 93, 2B 106, 3B 96, K 101, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .370 → .262; ISO .183 → .127; BABIP .352 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL LAD Bautista · 187 PAwOBA .397 → .273 (−123)K% 23.5% → 28.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.53% | ÷1.025 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.01% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 20.86% | ÷0.942 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 15.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.28% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 3.06% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.15% | ÷1.028 | ×0.680 | ×0.987 | ×1.022 | 12.78% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.26% | ÷0.937 | ×0.600 | ×0.987 | ×1.022 | 2.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 5.32% | ÷0.915 | ×0.600 | ×0.987 | ×1.022 | 3.52% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.38% | ÷1.028 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 2.99% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 106, 2B 87, 3B 83, K 105, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.
Result: wOBA .397 → .273; ISO .232 → .135; BABIP .300 → .192. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).